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Arrieta: Mortal

redseat

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Big chill: Mets make Jake Arrieta look ordinary, take 2-0 lead in NLCS

NEW YORK – Jake Arrieta's first pitch Sunday night, a fastball, missed everything. Everything but the backstop, actually, after it had cleared a catcher's mitt by plenty and an umpire's right leg by an inch or two. He'd worked toward that pitch for six days and nights. He'd measured his steps, and abided his routine, and stood on the mound at a raucous Citi Field. He'd felt the series on his shoulders and the ball in his hand and then thrown that ball clear to the backstop.

He'd throw 93 more pitches, a couple of which were far more damaging, both to the Chicago Cubsand to the chosen baseball. As the veteran catcher David Ross would say several times late Sunday, "This is baseball," which is his way of affirming there's rarely a true or standard or inevitable outcome. Sometimes you win 22 games and are carried from the field and other times you throw the fastball you've been thinking about for six days past everything, and a dozen pitches later are probably looking back on the very events that will beat you, with an entire game still out there.

"Well, we've got work to do," Arrieta said. "The good thing is we get to go home and play three games at Wrigley Field. The series is not over."

Potentially three in Chicago.

Arrieta allowed three runs in the first inning Sunday night in Game 2 of the National League championship series, all of them across the first 13 pitches he'd throw. Three hours later, the New York Mets were 4-1 winners, led the series 2-0, and had left open the possibility the next time they're in Queens will be for a World Series game.
 

Jackson O'Dowd

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I guess all the big Cy Young candidates might be out before the World Series. Greinke, and Kershaw fell by the wayside in the NLDS. Dallas Keuchel and his team lost out in the ALDS, and it is possible that David Price might be gone as well if the Blue Jays don't win two straight in Kaufman Stadium. It is a combination of possibly peaking too early and not getting enough hitting support from their teammates. Except for David Price's case, he really just had bad outing after bad outing in this postseason after being a buzzsaw in the stretch run for the Jays.
 

Nasty_Magician

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I guess all the big Cy Young candidates might be out before the World Series. Greinke, and Kershaw fell by the wayside in the NLDS. Dallas Keuchel and his team lost out in the ALDS, and it is possible that David Price might be gone as well if the Blue Jays don't win two straight in Kaufman Stadium. It is a combination of possibly peaking too early and not getting enough hitting support from their teammates. Except for David Price's case, he really just had bad outing after bad outing in this postseason after being a buzzsaw in the stretch run for the Jays.

deGrom tailed off a bit the 2nd half but for awhile there he was right in the discussion.
 

ROMOTOOWENS

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I think Arrieta wore down. He may not have gotten the offensive support in NY but he got out pitched too. He had a bad start vs SL too but his offense bailed him out.
 

anotheridiot

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Jake explained that he was too amped up too early in the day when he pitched. The buzz around the ball park had his adrenaline up all day, apparently he usually flips a switch and turns it on at game time. He said from the minute he walked in the park he was just too excited. Down time really hurt the cubs, the mets will feel it waiting til tuesday to start the world series. All the young pitchers will be interviewed constantly and its really the best interest for them to turn off their social media and dont get worn out before it starts.
 

leomaz

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Maybe Jake just reverted to his true form.....time will tell if this was a fluke or not.....I imagine all cubs fans will come out and say this is the farthest from the truth but I say only time will tell
 

navamind

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Maybe Jake just reverted to his true form.....time will tell if this was a fluke or not.....I imagine all cubs fans will come out and say this is the farthest from the truth but I say only time will tell

He has a 2.31 FIP (2nd best among MLB pitchers ) and 2.66 xFIP (3rd best) since the beginning of 2014 over 385.2 innings. Maybe, you know, he's really good? 385.2 innings is a pretty large sample size.
 

navamind

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He has a 2.31 FIP (2nd best among MLB pitchers ) and 2.66 xFIP (3rd best) since the beginning of 2014 over 385.2 innings. Maybe, you know, he's really good? 385.2 innings is a pretty large sample size.

But yeah, let's look at two starts instead. Great logic.

Fact of the matter is, there's nothing in his performance over the last two seasons that suggests he's going to regress significantly. He's getting plenty of strikeouts, limiting walks, and inducing ground balls. His slider's pretty filthy.

How Cubs ace Jake Arrieta went from one of MLB's worst starters to one of its best
 

leomaz

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He has a 2.31 FIP (2nd best among MLB pitchers ) and 2.66 xFIP (3rd best) since the beginning of 2014 over 385.2 innings. Maybe, you know, he's really good? 385.2 innings is a pretty large sample size.
Maybe you know he is just you know lucky...also the stats you posted are in terms past.....can he keep it up? I think not but only time will tell.....I guarantee batters won't give him a break because of his stats from last year.....only time will tell is about ten only guarantee we have
 

StanMarsh51

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Maybe you know he is just you know lucky...also the stats you posted are in terms past.....can he keep it up? I think not but only time will tell.....I guarantee batters won't give him a break because of his stats from last year.....only time will tell is about ten only guarantee we have


That's kind of why he used FIP for Arrieta....ERA can greatly be affected by luck, but FIP not so much.
 

navamind

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Maybe you know he is just you know lucky...also the stats you posted are in terms past.....can he keep it up? I think not but only time will tell.....I guarantee batters won't give him a break because of his stats from last year.....only time will tell is about ten only guarantee we have

Lolwut? FIP and xFIP are stats that estimate a pitcher's expected run prevention independent of his team's defensive performance.
 

leomaz

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Stats are for fun......never been a fan of stats... the eye test works for me.
 

navamind

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"They're useless because they don't support my inane, baseless argument."
 

leomaz

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"They're useless because they don't support my inane, baseless argument."
Sorry if you only look at stats...who should have won when Arrieta pitched? Using only stats who should be in the world series?
 

StanMarsh51

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Sorry if you only look at stats...who should have won when Arrieta pitched? Using only stats who should be in the world series?


We're not talking about "winning." We're talking about "being a fluke." If Arrieta went 5-15 next year with a 2.00 ERA, is he a fluke because he didn't win enough?

As pointed out, a near 400 inning sample size of dominance is generally enough to not consider someone a fluke.
 
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