Analytics

[MilkSpiller22]

Its semantics U made the logical decision but it definitely wasnt the right one

Ok. Maybe it is semantic. Didn’t really think it was.

My point is that people base right and wrong on the results. Results are irrelevant to your decision.

You make your decision based on whatever information you have. Making the RIGHT or WRONG decision can only be based on the value at that time( of course future projections are part of your decision)

Again, if on week one I traded Aaron Rodgers for Patrick Mahomes. The Rodgers side was the clear winner. And clearly won the trade.

Just because the results differ, doesn’t make the trade a good one for the one who got Mahomes(in redraft)

Sure Boneheads can get lucky. But that doesn’t save them from marking the bonehead move.

 

[SteelersPride]

I just click stuff and see what happens. It works out

 

[Brees#1]

Chargers were looking ahead to their matchup with the Chiefs.

The league is week to week. Lots of variables. Acknowledge them all.

I don't buy that at all. I figured it out with he bengals. They have been torched by balanced offenses. The chargers lack that with Gordon hurt.

 

[SteelersPride]

I don't buy that at all. I figured it out with he bengals. They have been torched by balanced offenses. The chargers lack that with Gordon hurt.

How can’t u buy that? It can very well be true? U buy trends dating back 5 years ago for picking winners of games.....

 

[TREFF]

How can’t u buy that? It can very well be true? U buy trends dating back 5 years ago for picking winners of games.....

Because it wasn't his idea..and as usual, his idea was based on hindsight after knowing what happened, not any reasoning, forethought or intuition that it would most likely work out that way, for the exact reason he stated

 

[SteelersPride]

Because it wasn't his idea..and as usual, his idea was based on hindsight after knowing what happened, not any reasoning, forethought or intuition that it would most likely work out that way, for the exact reason he stated

Very true lol

 

[Brees#1]

How can’t u buy that? It can very well be true? U buy trends dating back 5 years ago for picking winners of games.....

Trends do play a role. Look at teams who currently have winning streaks or losing streaks against certain teams. But final results have nothing to do with fantasy performances.

 

[SteelersPride]

Trends do play a role. Look at teams who currently have winning streaks or losing streaks against certain teams. But final results have nothing to do with fantasy performances.

you do realize fantasy performances are based off real life games, the ones ur predicting how they would go. If you can predict how a game goes, you can get an idea how the fantasy players will perform. think about it, not being a jerk, but its true.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

This seems to be the thing about fantasy football that is so confusing. I'm beginning to realize that in order for me to understand football matchups I may have to pay for some kind of membership.

When the rams and saints played, the announcers were talking about the rams playing zone against one side of the field and man on the other. When stuff like this happens, it becomes confusing. Do players really succeed any better vs a man or zone defense? If a team plays two defenses then chances are the player has a chance to succeed because he's facing two styles.

Or how about what happened yesterday. the bengals allow Brees, Mayfield, Fitzpatrick, Cam, and Ryan to exploit them, but when they play LAC they show up defensively against Rivers. Is there something there about that matchup I don't know about. Do the chargers have a terrible oline or something? Is it the stadium?

This stuff right here becomes hard to conceptualize and figure out without paying for it.

I have more in this thread.

So I'll read the rest of this thread but dude, you have (seriously) some of the best FF minds here on this board (of which I do NOT consider myself one) and rather than try to work with some of these guise you have completely alienated yerself from most.............we ALL know that if we were to hit on 50-60% of our "Edumucated Guesses" that would pretty much be Godlike. So just a suggestion from a guy who at one point in time was 100% on yer side.................chill out this off season and come back next year with an open mind and quite possibly you will be (for lack of a better term) back in the good graces of the folks here on this board. There have been more posters than you might think that have pissed all of the fine gents here but most have managed to bury the hatchet in time and become contributers to this board. Lastly, copy my stolen sig and past it as yours..................and you should read that shit once a day................

 

[Sam Sportboy]

let me try again... If week one, I traded Aaron Rodgers for Patrick Mahomes... Does me being correct CHANGE that it was a terrible trade at the time??

I see that as you seeing more value in one player than the other..........or wanting one player bad enough to (in other peeps mind) to over pay when actually in yer mind you were getting a great value...........kinda like Thielen fer Cooks...........

 

[averagejoe]

This was a fascinating read. Really.

I look at this way... even with the plethora of statistics, snap counts, targets, DB coverages, injuries, etc... no expert predicted TY Hilton to have 199 yards, or Amari Cooper to have 3 TD, or Derrick Henry to have a career night. And some of these experts have a team of analysts to look up statistics.

I guess my point is, you can spend a lot of time researching an endless list of data to come to a decision. I don't have that kind of time to investigate every matchup... and for most of us, we do ok just making an educated guess.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

This was a fascinating read. Really.

I look at this way... even with the plethora of statistics, snap counts, targets, DB coverages, injuries, etc... no expert predicted TY Hilton to have 199 yards, or Amari Cooper to have 3 TD, or Derrick Henry to have a career night. And some of these experts have a team of analysts to look up statistics.

I guess my point is, you can spend a lot of time researching an endless list of data to come to a decision. I don't have that kind of time to investigate every matchup... and for most of us, we do ok just making an educated guess.

No kidding...............like 4 years ago I think it was @leftypower was beating me by less than a point and he had the Saints K at the time.............Saints gonna punt but other team is Offside so Saints send out the K and he misses. I beat (I'm sure it was Lefty) by less than a point........................haha Lefty (or whoever it was). You can't plan fer that shi..........I mean stuff.................(fer you Joe)

 

[leftypower]

@Sam Sportboy - I tend to put results like that out of my mind ….. but gee, thanks for the reminder. …..

 

[femurov]

I think the main thing that you are not factoring in here is luck. Luck plays a HUGE factor in fantasy football. You can bury yourself in all the statistics and analysis that you want, but at the end of the day, you have absolutely no control what happens on the field. It is a lot like poker, especially Texas Hold 'em. You can get dealt pocket aces and bet the hell out of it. You hit two more aces on the flop for quads and bet the hell out of them. Then, someone holding the 2 and 5 of diamonds hits runner-runner 3 and 4 of diamonds and hits a straight flush to beat you. Should you have folded that hand? Absolutely not. The chances of you losing pre-flop, after the flop and even after the turn is astronomical. But it happens. And there's not a damn thing you can do about it. Sometimes, the fantasy Gods smile down upon you. Sometimes, they shit on you. You just have to roll with the punches and put what you think it is the best lineup out there and watch it unfold.

You seem to be on this never-ending quest to find the perfect way to predict how each player will do each week and it just isn't out there. If it was, someone would be making millions off of it.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

You seem to be on this never-ending quest to find the perfect way to predict how each player will do each week and it just isn't out there. If it was, someone would be making millions off of it.

/thread

 

[averagejoe]

/thread

Bif Tannen.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Funny how one can take the same route to work every day, leave at the same time on consecutive days, and not get to work at the same time. It's like the other cars on the road don't care about my timeline of my last and newly projected arrival. Hey, that bus wasn't there yesterday. What? There was no accident at this intersection yesterday.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I don't buy that at all. I figured it out with he bengals. They have been torched by balanced offenses. The chargers lack that with Gordon hurt.

What if I told you it's not so much the RB, but the OL, QB, and playcalling that determines RB output? It's like asking why do Wisconsin RB's often flop in the NFL (obviously not Gordon) when the simple answer is it's not about the RB.

The other simple explanation is the Chargers have had low lows for years, infamously, for over 10 plus years now. They aren't the only team, Seattle comes to mind on offense, but the variance you're getting with a Rivers led Chargers team is always going to be high. (albeit it's not all his fault either; bad coaching, kickers, etc)

 

[averagejoe]

Funny how one can take the same route to work every day, leave at the same time on consecutive days, and not get to work at the same time. It's like the other cars on the road don't care about my timeline of my last and newly projected arrival. Hey, that bus wasn't there yesterday. What? There was no accident at this intersection yesterday.

Awesome analogy.

 

[Brees#1]

So what's the excuse for the raiders against that bengals defense? This same team that could air out points against Arizona. Like I said, a running game is why they get torched.