Alex Ovechkin goal watch

[BGDave]

10 PP goals and 32 empty netters, I think he's gonna do it.

 

[dash]

 

[Loco2]

The Path to Beating The Great One

So, we are here in 2020, with Ovechkin likely staring down finishing the season somewhere around 710 goals and being just short or past Mike Gartner for 7th all-time in goals. Here's a potential scenario:

• 2021 > Age 35, scores about 35 goals, moves to 745, passes Esposito, Dionne, and Hall to 4th all-time
• 2022 > Age 36, scores about 30 goals, moves to 775, passes Jagr to 3rd all-time
• 2023 > Age 37, scores about 30 goals, moves to 805, passes Howe to 2nd all-time

Of course, Ovechkin could absolutely exceed those totals and surprise us with another 40-goal season or slightly better...But the above scenario would leave him as a newly minted 38-year old man ready to start the 2023-2024 season with only 90 goals needed in his twilight years to ascend Mt. Gretzky. With the solid year he's had, this...actually... seems...doable.

Checking back in on how reality met expectations...
2021 - 24 goals to reach 730 (COVID shortened year)
2022 - 50 goals to reach 780
2023 - 42 goals to reach 822
2024 - 31 goals to reach 853

Even with COVID and injuries shortening 2021, his three year total for 2021-2023 was more than 20 goals beyond my expectations and he added yet another 31 goals this year. He is still top 20 in shots this year and his shooting percentage is below his career average, but only by 1.5%. His PP “office” has reliably brought 12-18 goals a season for a decade now. He still broke 30 without a true first line center. Those are all huge positives for continued decent production. Here are my predictions for the coming years:

2025 - 33 goals to reach 886 (now within single digits)
2026 - 24 goals and surpasses Gretzky after a slump to start the season, ends the year with 910
2027 - Caps sign him for one last year, and he pots 18 more to finish his career with 928