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Alex Ovechkin goal watch

KennyBanyeah

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By the end of his 34 year old season Gretzky had 814 NHL goals.

Optimistically Oven Chicken will have 720 goals at the end of this, his 34 year old season.

Gretzky played 4 more seasons and was not a prolific goal scorer at the end of his career.

I think OV will have to play at least 5 more full seasons (scoring 35 a year) after this one to catch Gretz. Certainly doable as the guy just seems to keep scoring.

Never thought we'd see the day but we just might.
 

elocomotive

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He needs 13 goals to pass Lemieux. Caps play the Pens in 22 games. That could work out perfectly at his current pace. :)
 

forty_three

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He needs 13 goals to pass Lemieux. Caps play the Pens in 22 games. That could work out perfectly at his current pace. :)

He's playing Korpisalo tonight. He could net 13. He'll have to work to keep it under 5.
 

dash

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dash

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If only it could be done without also pushing Mario and Stevie down.

Just keep in mind that Mark Messier missed the playoffs in each of his last seven seasons. For a legendary player, that's a pretty awful stat.
 

puckhead

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Just keep in mind that Mark Messier missed the playoffs in each of his last seven seasons. For a legendary player, that's a pretty awful stat.
LEADERSHIP!!!!!!
 

elocomotive

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The Path to Beating The Great One

So, we are here in 2020, with Ovechkin likely staring down finishing the season somewhere around 710 goals and being just short or past Mike Gartner for 7th all-time in goals. Here's a potential look at the next few years:
  • 2021 > Age 35, scores about 35 goals, moves to 745, passes Esposito, Dionne, and Hall to 4th all-time
  • 2022 > Age 36, scores about 30 goals, moves to 775, passes Jagr to 3rd all-time
  • 2023 > Age 37, scores about 30 goals, moves to 805, passes Howe to 2nd all-time
Of course, Ovechkin could absolutely exceed those totals and surprise us with another 40-goal season or slightly better. He could also have some major injuries that put a crimp in one of these seasons (or more). But those seem like pretty safe guesses barring major injuries given his supporting cast, how he scores his goals, and the opportunities that come his way.

But the above scenario would leave him as a newly minted 38-year old man ready to start the 2023-2024 season with only 90 goals needed in his twilight years to ascend Mt. Gretzky. With the solid year he's had, this...actually... seems...doable.

Here is a look at the geriatric goal numbers of his competition (excluding guys from vastly different eras):
  • Jagr had 157 goals from age 39 and on after returning to the NHL.
  • Hull netted just 62 goals from age 38 in only two final seasons before retiring.
  • Selanne scored 132 goals from ages 38-43 in his second act with the Ducks.
  • Messier had 97 goals post-age 37 through several injury-riddled years.
  • Yzerman, Gartner, Sakic,and Iginla had less than 50 goals in their late 30s/early 40s.

It looks like once you get to 38-39, it seems about a 50/50 chance that you never contribute significantly any further. Injuries take you. Your role is lessened. You just can't keep up. All of the above. But guys like Jagr and Selanne had strong final acts and Ovechkin's clean injury history and evolving goal scoring certainly seem a strong candidate to follow in their path.
 

KennyBanyeah

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The Path to Beating The Great One

So, we are here in 2020, with Ovechkin likely staring down finishing the season somewhere around 710 goals and being just short or past Mike Gartner for 7th all-time in goals. Here's a potential look at the next few years:
  • 2021 > Age 35, scores about 35 goals, moves to 745, passes Esposito, Dionne, and Hall to 4th all-time
  • 2022 > Age 36, scores about 30 goals, moves to 775, passes Jagr to 3rd all-time
  • 2023 > Age 37, scores about 30 goals, moves to 805, passes Howe to 2nd all-time
Of course, Ovechkin could absolutely exceed those totals and surprise us with another 40-goal season or slightly better. He could also have some major injuries that put a crimp in one of these seasons (or more). But those seem like pretty safe guesses barring major injuries given his supporting cast, how he scores his goals, and the opportunities that come his way.

But the above scenario would leave him as a newly minted 38-year old man ready to start the 2023-2024 season with only 90 goals needed in his twilight years to ascend Mt. Gretzky. With the solid year he's had, this...actually... seems...doable.

Here is a look at the geriatric goal numbers of his competition (excluding guys from vastly different eras):
  • Jagr had 157 goals from age 39 and on after returning to the NHL.
  • Hull netted just 62 goals from age 38 in only two final seasons before retiring.
  • Selanne scored 132 goals from ages 38-43 in his second act with the Ducks.
  • Messier had 97 goals post-age 37 through several injury-riddled years.
  • Yzerman, Gartner, Sakic,and Iginla had less than 50 goals in their late 30s/early 40s.

It looks like once you get to 38-39, it seems about a 50/50 chance that you never contribute significantly any further. Injuries take you. Your role is lessened. You just can't keep up. All of the above. But guys like Jagr and Selanne had strong final acts and Ovechkin's clean injury history and evolving goal scoring certainly seem a strong candidate to follow in their path.

Doesn't make his teammates better though, so...


McDavid > McChicken >>>>>>>Ovenchicken
 

KennyBanyeah

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Pretty cool graphic.


Would somehow displaying the date as the bars moved along kill this guy. For fuck's sake!!

giphy.gif
 

dash

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694

That pulls OV even with Mark Messier. Way to go Alex :thumb:

 

Mofo

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Ovechkin now only 1 behind Mario Lemieux and joining the top 10 for all-time goals. He's had 5 goals in his last two games.

Current Situation:
8. Mark Messier* 1979-04 694
9. Steve Yzerman* 1983-06 692
10. Mario Lemieux* 1984-06 690
11. Alex Ovechkin 2005-20 689
A friend of mine said the team was planning for some kind of special celebration for when Ovechkin hits #700. They might want to get Mike Gartner on speed dial instead, since his pace has quickened.
 

elocomotive

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11 goals in 5 games to pass Lemieux, Yzeeman, and Messier and tie for the league lead in goals at age 34. Not a bad couple of weeks.

In Soviet Russia, all-star game is you.
 
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