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AL East Thread

nynasty

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AL East potential breakout players

Rays: LHP Mason Montgomery

After years spent hoping Montgomery's command would improve enough for him to function as a starter, the Rays accepted the inevitable last summer and shifted him to the bullpen. I think Montgomery has the talent to still make an impact. (Ditto for Hunter Bigge, an underappreciated part of the Isaac Paredes return.) He has two good offerings, a mid-90s fastball and a slider that plays up in relief. Montgomery's fastball, the key to his game, thrives becase of both its innate life (he generates more than 18 inches of induced vertical break) and the deception gained from his mechanics; not only does he pitch off a tall front side with some serious back leg hinging, he releases from a high slot and with crossfire action. That layering of shape and form creates a challenging optical illusion, particularly when he elevates up in and above the zone. If you want examples of how well this profile can work, check out Alex Vesia of the Dodgers and Erik Sabrowski of the Guardians. Or you can just wait and see what Montgomery brings to the table this year.


Yankees: RHP Fernando Cruz

Cruz is a holdover from last year's list. While it's generally a bad sign when a player repeats, I'm justifying his selection here (over, say, infielder Oswaldo Cabrera) because I think the change of scenery will help him flourish. I have to imagine the Yankees are going to have Cruz ditch his ineffective cutter, the pitch responsible for nine of his 15 home runs allowed the last two seasons. Simultaneously, I expect Cruz to ramp up the usage of his splitter, in the spirit of how the Yankees had Tommy Kahnle spam his changeup. (Said splitter has held opponents to a .353 OPS over the last two years.) Should those tweaks occur, Cruz could emerge as a high-leverage weapon for Aaron Boone and the defending American League champs.


Orioles: RHP Kade Strowd

In terms of pitch quality, Strowd is as blessed as anyone in the Orioles system. Last season in Triple-A, he had three distinct offerings post whiff rates of 35% or better: his mid-90s heater, his changeup, and his curveball. Alas, his well-below-average command has prevented him from making a single big-league appearance as he nears his 28th birthday. I'm not optimistic about Strowd figuring out how to throw more strikes; I do, nonetheless, think he has the stuff to navigate his self-inflicted traffic on the road to success -- sort of like Justin Martínez, a member of last year's breakout pick class.


Red Sox: RHP Luis Guerrero

Guerrero snuck into the majors late last season, delivering 10 shutout innings in mostly low-leverage situations. I think he'll see more burn and more success in 2025. He's an east-to-west pitcher, by which I mean there's little verticality to his game. Look at his pitch movement chart and you'll notice that almost everything rests above the x-axis. In that sense, Guerrero is a righty version of Tyler Alexander. The difference is that Guerrero has better stuff, complete with some secondaries (like his splitter and his slider) that coerced whiff rates of 40% or better overall. I suspect he might start the season in the minors, but I would be surprised if he goes the year without signing a lease in Boston.


Blue Jays: INF Josh Kasevich

Kasevich is a min-max experiment at the plate. He makes an impressive amount of contact, connecting on more than 95% of his in-zone swings last season at the Triple-A level, yet his power production makes Jacob Wilson look Bondsian by comparison. Kasevich is too prone to hitting the ball on the ground and to the opposite field to optimize his slugging output -- think of him as Toronto's version of Brice Turang, albeit without the same wealth of secondary skills. The Blue Jays received more mileage from Ernie Clement (a somewhat similar player) in 2024 than they could have reasonably expected. If Clement stumbles this spring, Kasevich could be there to inherit his playing time and, perhaps, his surprising effectiveness.


 

nynasty

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Gil bullpen shut down early with shoulder discomfort. Fan fucking tastic

Stroman gonna get his starts afterall.
 

chappee11

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Gil bullpen shut down early with shoulder discomfort. Fan fucking tastic

Stroman gonna get his starts afterall.
That’s why you never have enough pitching. Now they will be happy that they kept Stroman.

Also, what is the word on Stanton????
 

navamind

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0-4 with 4 Ks for Campbell... that is why we signed Bregman
 
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