58crash
must own
Shanahan wanted a Pocket passer
Just say no to Kaepernick.
With training camp approaching it's time to give an early installation of this thread. The AFC West teams all play what looks like a very tough slate for 2017, though we all know that's based off 2016 finishes and that doesn't always translate from one season to the next. Still, it's tough to see this division repeat last year's pair of 12-4 teams in the playoffs and a 9-7 team narrowly outside the playoffs.
With that said, all four teams have something to be excited about going into 2017, with some elements of uncertainty ahead for each team as well. Consider:
The Kansas City Chiefs have thrived under Andy Reid, especially considering how bad they were prior to his arrival. Alongside Reid has been QB Alex Smith who despite leading the team to 4 consecutive winning seasons, 3 playoff appearances in the last 4 seasons and the team's sole playoff win in a 24 year span, seems to be vastly unappreciated by Chiefs fans. Perhaps some of that is fair: every fan wants to believe his team can contend for a SB win, especially if your team has had a more than solid run the way the Chiefs have the last few years. The critique on Smith is he can't get the team over the hump. Coming off a 12-4 season and division title, the expectations for the Chiefs are high once again. But there's some uncertainty just beneath the surface too. Under Reid, the sum has been greater than the parts. The Chiefs have won a lot of games despite lacking eye popping play on either side of the ball. They also traded up to grab QB Patrick Mahommes. Already the calls for him to supplant Smith are beginning and they'll grow is Smith doesn't lead the Chiefs to a fast start in 2017. But going with a rookie is no sure thing, and even if the Chiefs are able to keep him on the bench for a season or two there's still no way in knowing how he'll adjust to the league. With a new GM the team is going to have to continue to draft well to stay relevant and while expectations for this year may be high, it's hard to assume this team will remain a contender in the coming years.
The Oakland Raiders were a trendy pick to reach the playoffs last year and some consider them a SB contender behind only the Patriots for 2017. Their season was handicapped by an injury to their QB but he's back and that offense should be one of the best in the business in 2017. One of the bigger issues here though is that defense. Good as the Raiders offense was in 2016, they cumulatively out scored opponents by less than 2 PPG. Before you counter with the argument that figure is skewed by the season finale sans Carr where the Raiders were outscored 24-6, take a look at their 11 one-score games they played: WITH CARR. They posted a 9-2 record in those games, and you can't take that away from them. But you can also assert that as good as their offense is, they were in most of their games one score away from being a 7-9/8-8 team again last year. And that's on the defense for the most part. Now this is a unit that does have some bright spots, but as a whole is going to need to be significantly improved if the Raiders are going to be a true contender. And that's not even the biggest issue here. HC Jack Del Rio has never coached a team to back to back playoff appearances, and has only once coached his team to consecutive winning seasons (Jaguars 9-7 in 2004, 12-4 in 2005). Now the Raiders are not the Jaguars and now is the perfect time for JDR to expand his accomplishments as a HC. But it does look like it'll be an uphill battle for him with a tough slate in 2017. As for the team's pending move to Las Vegas, that carries some uncertainty down the road but I believe the team and players remain very focused on the task at hand. I also give GM Reggie Mackenzie a lot of credit for the job he's done building that team from the dumpster fire Al Davis left behind.
The Denver Broncos are coming off their first non-playoff season since John Elway arrived at the front office. Going into 2917 they have a lot of questions with a new coaching staff, the QB position, the offensive line, and the run stopping abilities. What's worth noting though is despite these uncertainties looming large over the immediate season, Elway has proven his prowess at building this team into a contender and as long as he's calling the shots it's probably safe to say the Broncos will be fine in the long run. And even some of the short term questions surrounding this team may not undermine their season to the extent many suspect it will. First year HC Vance Joseph has assembled a stellar coaching staff. Gone is Wade Phillips, whose defense in 2015 won the SB pretty much without the aid of the offense. In his place is Joe Woods, who coached under Phillips as the secondary coach and promises to not overhaul the defensive philosophy. On offense Mike McCoy returns. McCoy is known for maximizing the talents of his players, coaxing a playoff win out of a Tebow-led offense in 2011, then turning around and ringing up the league to over 30 PPG with Manning the very next year. Regardless of who emerges as the starting QB, he will be in a favorable position with McCoy calling the plays. Ironically enough, major sports media hones in on these questions around the Broncos without really considering the "yeah, but..." angle I've outlined. Meanwhile they've ignored the single biggest factor that will undermine their season this year, and that's the offensive line. Another year of wholesale changes to this unit, and despite the bar not being set too high (or high at all) by the 2016 unit, it takes some real orange colored glasses to assume this unit will be without its struggles again this year. The biggest question now is can a new coaching staff and young QBs overcome those struggles?
The Los Angeles Chargers are a trendy pick by some to reach the playoffs with a 10-6 or so record. They have a highly rated defensive line and an offense that can be as good as any in the league. In their past two seasons they were on the wrong end of a lot of close games. Between players returning from injury and improvements on defense a lot of people see this team as being able to get over the hump in those close games. The NFL's hisory is full of teams that have done so, so it wouldn't be out of the ordinary if the Chargers had a run at the playoffs this year. Still, they just relocated. While the players will remain focused on the tasks at hand, this is different from the Raiders pending move because the players will be working out in new facilities and have to adjust game day routines. Add in a new coaching staff and a new dynamic with their new temporary stadium and it's easy to see why some are not believers in this team. In the long run they just moved to a market where there is arguably no demand for the Chargers or their brand, and they won't be shacking up with the Rams in their new stadium until 2020. With Rivers in the twilight of his career but a plethora of young talent coming up, the Chargers could have a very small window where they are contenders. Or it can fail to materialize altogether.
More on these teams through camp and the pre-season, and of course the regular season beyond that. Meanwhile I welcome your thoughts.
Awesome writeup. I think your analysis of OAK is spot on. Point differential is a great stat to predict success and Oak played too many close games last year to say they can repeat that success unless their D steps up.
I think Denver can be an 11 win team with just 2 more points per game on offense which equates to an extra FG in 10 of the 16 games. A 80% Jamal Charles for 16 games could provide that himself. He's that good as a pass receiver out of the backfield.
Like I have posted before, I bet if you can find stats, a majority of yards given up by front happened from middle of 3rd qtr and beyond. The offences lust for 3-outs had a big impact I believe anyway in that category as well as others. I could be wrong.There's a few reasons to believe the Broncos can be 11-5 or 10-6 (which may be good enough to win the AFC West). Like you said, one more FG in 10 of 16 games is one way. But what about run defense that isn't bottom tier? If you think about the Broncos overall defensive ranking from last year it's mind blowing when you consider the run D ranked 28th overall! The ranking of 18th in yards per carry is somewhat encouraging though because it tells me even in a "bad" year the run D wasn't totally broken. This is why I think they can return to a top-10 unit overall against the run and combining that with our pass rush and secondary you have the makings of the league's best defense.
You combine that with even a marginal improvement on offense from woeful to adequate and it is really easy to see this team at 11-5.
Like I have posted before, I bet if you can find stats, a majority of yards given up by front happened from middle of 3rd qtr and beyond. The offences lust for 3-outs had a big impact I believe anyway in that category as well as others. I could be wrong.
Funny how when a team can't win the " close " games it's deemed as a weakness and a lack of confidence/ inexperience,etc. But when they do come up with W's instead of L's, their criticized for only winning those games by a few points. Once you start ending up on the " good " side of those close games, a winning culture has an opportunity to emerge. I don't deem any of the Raiders " close " wins as anything but positive for organization. IMHO of course.
Funny how when a team can't win the " close " games it's deemed as a weakness and a lack of confidence/ inexperience,etc. But when they do come up with W's instead of L's, their criticized for only winning those games by a few points. Once you start ending up on the " good " side of those close games, a winning culture has an opportunity to emerge. I don't deem any of the Raiders " close " wins as anything but positive for organization. IMHO of course.
I'm going to " assume " if you had Sunday ticket , you had Red zone also and unless Denver was playing AND you play FF, you were strictly on Red zone just like me ( when I had it ) every Sunday.Not buying you sat there and watched a Raider game start to finish. Nice try ; That said, right back at ya.Randy, first, I live on the opposite coast from the Raiders but I do have Sunday ticket and saw a lot of their games last year. Second, a regression from last year's win total is not mutually exclusive with the Raiders being a team on the rise. Keep in mind we are talking about a team that going into last season was 3 games behind the Browns in W-L since both teams last made the playoffs in 2002. Yeah, they were that bad. By definition, posting back to back winning seasons, even if it's 9-7 this year, could be considered "on the rise" given 1) how atrocious the Raiders have been in recent NFL history and 2) that their HC has achieved that only once in his coaching career.
Don't assume we're letting our Raider hate cloud our assessment. If you begin to think that, remember a lot of us have levied very realistic critiques toward our own team as well. Also, it's always risky to assume you know more about a team than anyone else. Especially when they go by a name like IKNOWFTBLL.
I'm going to " assume " if you had Sunday ticket , you had Red zone also and unless Denver was playing AND you play FF, you were strictly on Red zone just like me ( when I had it ) every Sunday.Not buying you sat there and watched a Raider game start to finish. Nice try ; That said, right back at ya.
I'm going to " assume " if you had Sunday ticket , you had Red zone also and unless Denver was playing AND you play FF, you were strictly on Red zone just like me ( when I had it ) every Sunday.Not buying you sat there and watched a Raider game start to finish. Nice try ; That said, right back at ya.