Advanced stats support Phils staff?

[msgkings322]

Ran into this interesting post from Nate Silver (you statheads will know who that is):

Nate Silver on How They Rank With the All-Time Greatest - NYTimes.com

According to him (via VORP stats) the Phillies current 4 man rotation is by far the best in baseball now, and among the top ten since 1954. This assumes they each match their stats from 2010.

Also, remember rotations go 5 deep. Our 5 man is probably a little better than theirs. Even though we are 1-4, the only truly bad start came from MadBum.

 

[msgkings322]

Also, 4 of the top 8 rotations were those Braves studs in the 90s.

So they arguably were the best staff assembled in modern history. I guess I'd even say definitely, who else even comes close?

Goes to show, you need a lot of luck to win rings. Those guys only got 1 with the best pitching EVER.

Let's say we end up with our own legendary staff for a while (Tim, Matt, MadBum, Chez/Wheeler)...they may still not win another ring!

Makes me savor ours that much more.

 

[Heathbar012]

I get a lot of flack for this assessment, but I blame Bobby Cox. I think a competent manager would have gotten at least three rings with that staff.

Braves fans always argue that they had no offense, but I would take early 90s versions of Otis Nixon, Terry Pendleton, David Justice, Ron Gant and Fred McGriff (though, later) over the line-up the Giants trotted out last year. They even had Chipper Jones, Ryan Klesko and Javy Lopez waiting in the wings.

Cox is certainly a Hall of Fame manager, but might also be the most overrated... other than Tommy Lasorda.

 

[msgkings322]

I see why that gets you flack.

I myself thought Cox was one of the best. He had good teams well after losing those pitchers.

There's just a ton of luck involved in the playoffs. A marathon turns into a 100 meter dash.

 

[filosofy29]

I get a lot of flack for this assessment, but I blame Bobby Cox. I think a competent manager would have gotten at least three rings with that staff.

Braves fans always argue that they had no offense, but I would take early 90s versions of Otis Nixon, Terry Pendleton, David Justice, Ron Gant and Fred McGriff (though, later) over the line-up the Giants trotted out last year. They even had Chipper Jones, Ryan Klesko and Javy Lopez waiting in the wings.

Cox is certainly a Hall of Fame manager, but might also be the most overrated... other than Tommy Lasorda.

I wasn't old enough (only about 11 - 15) or so to know enough about the game when the Braves had that amazing pitching staff. So, it's probably very unfair of me to judge with any accuracy.

That said, there may be some credence to your theory. I just think that a coach (especially in baseball and hockey) can only do so much from the sidelines. I mean, I don't think a "better coach" would make the Sharks a Stanley Cup team over the past couple years nor would that coach make Joe Thornton a consistent performer in the playoffs. A lot of times, it's up to the players on the field to perform (or not to perform as the case may be). Coaches in football sure have a huge say in how their teams do so I think your case would be stronger there. I could be wrong though, just my opinion.

Cox never seemed to get outsmarted too much once I learned more about baseball (I'd say I started understanding more in 2000 or so). He may have though back in the day.

 

[Robotech]

Bobby Cox is great, but he made some very curious moves over the years in the playoffs. He carried 3 catchers on the roster when the Giants and Braves squared off in the 2002 NLDS. Consequently, he didn't have anyone to pinch run for the 46 or so year-old Julio Franco at the end of Game 5. Also, there was no reason for him keep that 2B in the game (I can't even remember his name) when the Braves were protecting a one-run lead in the 9th inning of Game 3 of last year's NLDS.

 

[Heathbar012]

Brooks Conrad! Pride of the Giants' World Series run!

 

[gp956]

Ran into this interesting post from Nate Silver (you statheads will know who that is):

Nate Silver on How They Rank With the All-Time Greatest - NYTimes.com

According to him (via VORP stats) the Phillies current 4 man rotation is by far the best in baseball now, and among the top ten since 1954. This assumes they each match their stats from 2010.

Also, remember rotations go 5 deep. Our 5 man is probably a little better than theirs. Even though we are 1-4, the only truly bad start came from MadBum.

I like what they did there - giving greater weight to the 2, 3, 4, and 5 starters. I think I'll use that method throughout the year - as we go from projections based on past stats to actual performances.

 

[Heathbar012]

I like what they did there - giving greater weight to the 2, 3, 4, and 5 starters. I think I'll use that method throughout the year - as we go from projections based on past stats to actual performances.

Cool, man. Just don't make my head explode, alright?

 

[gp956]

Cool, man. Just don't make my head explode, alright?

Yeah, VORP sounds advanced, but it's essentially just scaling runs given up.

 

[Heathbar012]

Yeah, VORP sounds advanced, but it's essentially just scaling runs given up.

Raptor Jesus for the mathematical mind melting?... Yeah, didn't think so.