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Brees#1
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I want to address the intangibles teams face and went in alphabetical order, picking the first team who won enough games with no serious losing skids. That was Baltimore.
2018
Ravens started out 1-0 at home, but had to go to Cincinnati on 3 days rest, going 1-1.
After winning at home against Denver, they went to Pittsburgh on SNF. Pittsburgh was on short rest. Like 2017, Pittsburgh was coming off a MNF game and almost lost to Baltimore. Baltimore capitalized this time.
But that big road win would be accompanied by another road trip to an improved Cleveland. They fell to 3-2.
They had one more road game and it was against Tennessee. They probably had payback in mind for 2017. They go 4-2.
NO was well rested, but this shows rest has little impact on a road game. Had it not been for what Brees was playing for, Baltimore would have won. But Ravens lose.
Carolina was undefeated at home, and the Steelers were well rested, but it was revenge more than the bye to even the series. Ravens fell to 4-5.
Baltimore would be at home for a month, and proceeded to win at home following the bye and a previous home loss to beat the Bengals and then the Raiders, neither of whom were better.
They faced a two-game road trip. Atlanta was falling apart, and Baltimore took advantage. You would have thought they would split the road games at them and KC, which they did. They played well against KC but down the stretch the back to back showed and paired with Mahomes resilience, they couldn't pull it off.
They didn't play good enough against the Bucs but did enough to win. They had five days rest for LAC, but playing on unorthodox days back to back has an impact. Chargers were coming off a TNF game against KC that they won. Baltimore was a hot team also, and the Chargers were gonna have to lose to give KC the division.
Last game at home against Cleveland was obvious Baltimore was gonna win.
2019
They did what they were supposed to do against a garbage Miami team. They followed that up with a closer win against a marginally better Cardinals team. 2-0.
They go to KC, and proceed to lose. Then they face a 1-2 Browns team looking to bounce back. Given the Browns had SF right after, they needed this win more. Baltimore played a Ben-less Steelers but Baltimore would have won regardless as the Steelers were coming off a home division win on short rest. The second tougher home game usually results in a loss.
They start getting hot, with no consecutive home or road games. They beat the Bengals, Seahawks, and get NE at the right time. The Pats were worn down but faced a lot of easier games. Two road games, short rest, a MNF road game, short rest, Cleveland.
They stay hot the next two games and their hot run was magnified against LA. Baltimore does not do this stuff without this winning streak. LA was also at home again after playing Chicago who was slumping. Again, the second tougher home game.
That short rest in any other occasion would have done them in against SF. Baltimore rode the buzz to overcome SF.
They were better than Buffalo, and Buffalo was coming off a shocking road win for their franchise so they may have been a little disordered. The Jets were no challenge and it was in Baltimore on short rest.
They were bound to split with Cleveland and no Big Ben gave them the sweep over Pittsburgh.
That's how they went 14-2.
So by this analysis, here's where Baltimore could have some issues this year.
Week 4 at Washington. Baltimore will be on short rest and coming off a big home game against KC. Should Baltimore win that, and I expect them to, they may be a little disordered going into Washington. But I expect Baltimore to overcome a team who can't contain for too long.
Week 9 and 10 at Colts/Patriots. Given this is followed by Tennessee, Baltimore winning both road games could weaken their efforts of revenge. I feel they will split these meetings and beat Tennessee. But they could beat the Colts instead.
Week 12 at Steelers. That game on short rest coming off Tennessee benefits Pittsburgh.
Week 13 vs Cowboys. If last year was any indication they should win, but Dallas otherwise has owned this slot. I expect Baltimore to win but if Dallas plays like they did against the Saints, who knows.
So they have another shot at 13-3 if they pass three of the four tests. But not if they lose to KC, who will be coming off a road win against LAC most likely and on the road again. They did it against Pittsburgh in 2018.
2018
Ravens started out 1-0 at home, but had to go to Cincinnati on 3 days rest, going 1-1.
After winning at home against Denver, they went to Pittsburgh on SNF. Pittsburgh was on short rest. Like 2017, Pittsburgh was coming off a MNF game and almost lost to Baltimore. Baltimore capitalized this time.
But that big road win would be accompanied by another road trip to an improved Cleveland. They fell to 3-2.
They had one more road game and it was against Tennessee. They probably had payback in mind for 2017. They go 4-2.
NO was well rested, but this shows rest has little impact on a road game. Had it not been for what Brees was playing for, Baltimore would have won. But Ravens lose.
Carolina was undefeated at home, and the Steelers were well rested, but it was revenge more than the bye to even the series. Ravens fell to 4-5.
Baltimore would be at home for a month, and proceeded to win at home following the bye and a previous home loss to beat the Bengals and then the Raiders, neither of whom were better.
They faced a two-game road trip. Atlanta was falling apart, and Baltimore took advantage. You would have thought they would split the road games at them and KC, which they did. They played well against KC but down the stretch the back to back showed and paired with Mahomes resilience, they couldn't pull it off.
They didn't play good enough against the Bucs but did enough to win. They had five days rest for LAC, but playing on unorthodox days back to back has an impact. Chargers were coming off a TNF game against KC that they won. Baltimore was a hot team also, and the Chargers were gonna have to lose to give KC the division.
Last game at home against Cleveland was obvious Baltimore was gonna win.
2019
They did what they were supposed to do against a garbage Miami team. They followed that up with a closer win against a marginally better Cardinals team. 2-0.
They go to KC, and proceed to lose. Then they face a 1-2 Browns team looking to bounce back. Given the Browns had SF right after, they needed this win more. Baltimore played a Ben-less Steelers but Baltimore would have won regardless as the Steelers were coming off a home division win on short rest. The second tougher home game usually results in a loss.
They start getting hot, with no consecutive home or road games. They beat the Bengals, Seahawks, and get NE at the right time. The Pats were worn down but faced a lot of easier games. Two road games, short rest, a MNF road game, short rest, Cleveland.
They stay hot the next two games and their hot run was magnified against LA. Baltimore does not do this stuff without this winning streak. LA was also at home again after playing Chicago who was slumping. Again, the second tougher home game.
That short rest in any other occasion would have done them in against SF. Baltimore rode the buzz to overcome SF.
They were better than Buffalo, and Buffalo was coming off a shocking road win for their franchise so they may have been a little disordered. The Jets were no challenge and it was in Baltimore on short rest.
They were bound to split with Cleveland and no Big Ben gave them the sweep over Pittsburgh.
That's how they went 14-2.
So by this analysis, here's where Baltimore could have some issues this year.
Week 4 at Washington. Baltimore will be on short rest and coming off a big home game against KC. Should Baltimore win that, and I expect them to, they may be a little disordered going into Washington. But I expect Baltimore to overcome a team who can't contain for too long.
Week 9 and 10 at Colts/Patriots. Given this is followed by Tennessee, Baltimore winning both road games could weaken their efforts of revenge. I feel they will split these meetings and beat Tennessee. But they could beat the Colts instead.
Week 12 at Steelers. That game on short rest coming off Tennessee benefits Pittsburgh.
Week 13 vs Cowboys. If last year was any indication they should win, but Dallas otherwise has owned this slot. I expect Baltimore to win but if Dallas plays like they did against the Saints, who knows.
So they have another shot at 13-3 if they pass three of the four tests. But not if they lose to KC, who will be coming off a road win against LAC most likely and on the road again. They did it against Pittsburgh in 2018.
