5/15 GDT - PopRox @ SF

[MarcoPolo]

$130M ain't cheap.

 

[MarcoPolo]

My argument was that they wont go up drastically NOW, *this season*, not that they didn't go up in the past. If the payroll was still 93M I wouldn't be saying it - but at 130M, I am.

No. Your argument was simple and clear: "As long as there are butts in the seats, the owners really don't care that much",

I made a present-tense statement. Disproving it by pointing at what happened two years ago is not a valid argument. THIS SEASON, I don't see them drastically raising salary, because they don't have to.

Edit: Oops. I just went back and re-read my original post. I didn't mention "this season" anywhere near my statement, although that was my intention. {What, you can't understand what I *meant* to say, even if it wasn't clear from what I actually SAID? Shame on you!} Seriously, my bad.

I don't see owners raising the budget by much THIS SEASON simply because they don't have to in order to keep fans coming through the gate. That's my *opinion*. We'll see if it happens or not.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Out of curiosity, people who go to the game, how full is the stadium REALLY? The announced "sell outs" are for tickets sold, not attendance (people actually walking into the park). How empty are the real crappy sections (302-305, 332-336). I've been to games (back in 2008) with "paid attendance" around 28-30,000 and the place was pretty darn empty.

Edit: In fact, here are a few pictures from 2008 :

They were taken just a few minutes before first pitch (the group of people near home plate are there for "throw out first pitch")

 

[calsnowskier]

I made a present-tense statement. Disproving it by pointing at what happened two years ago is not a valid argument. THIS SEASON, I don't see them drastically raising salary, because they don't have to.

Edit: Oops. I just went back and re-read my original post. I didn't mention "this season" anywhere near my statement, although that was my intention. {What, you can't understand what I *meant* to say, even if it wasn't clear from what I actually SAID? Shame on you!} Seriously, my bad.

I don't see owners raising the budget by much THIS SEASON simply because they don't have to in order to keep fans coming through the gate. That's my *opinion*. We'll see if it happens or not.

I agree with this stance, essentially.

However, we did go from 120M in '11 to 130M in '12. Without looking at details and getting any examples to support this, I suspect the payroll will go to approx 135M - 140M in '13. However, I expect it to drop slightly in '14. Remember, the story has always been that Zito's salary does not count towards payroll. Therefore, you have to expect that his entire salary will NOT be poured back into on-the-field talent when he is gone/resigned.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Uh, no. Ever hear of The Permanent Income Hypothesis?

Isn't that a hypothesis about behavior of *consumers*, INDIVIDUAL consumers? If so, I don't think that applying it to a *business model*, or to predict business behavior is valid.

 

[MarcoPolo]

The bump up to 130M has everything to do with the current and future income anticipated from their RSN deal.

To quote tzill "you state your opinion as fact." Do you have any facts to support your opinion?

Here are a few you might wish to consider :

1. According to this article :
How the SF Giants’ TV deal works | San Francisco Giants: The Splash | an SFGate.com blog

The Giants signed a 25-year deal with CSN just before the 2008 season. Why is the bump these last two years due to that deal FIVE years ago?

2. 2008 salary was considerably lower than 2007. So was the 2009 salary. The 2010 salary finally surpassed the 2007 salary, but part of that was for guys acquired during the season, the original 2010 salary (at season opening) was closer to the 2007 salary.

If the $130M "has everything to do with the current and future income anticipated from their RSN deal", why the LOWERING of salary just after the deal? And the year after? And then in 2010 just surpassing the 2007 salary by around 5%? And only having HUGE increases in the salary after winning the world series? The TV deal was already signed...

 

[MarcoPolo]

Remember, the story has always been that Zito's salary does not count towards payroll. Therefore, you have to expect that his entire salary will NOT be poured back into on-the-field talent when he is gone/resigned.

If the "Zito's salary doesn't count" story is true, then the Giants current salary is about $112M. Scary for the 2014 team.

 

[calsnowskier]

If the "Zito's salary doesn't count" story is true, then the Giants current salary is about $112M. Scary for the 2014 team.

Yup. This has been my concern ever since they started touting this factoid...

 

[MarcoPolo]

Giants have $81MM currently committed to the 2013 season:
Barry 20M
Freak 20.25 {actually 22M}
Cainer 20.83
Huffer 2.0
LOOGY 4.25
Panda 5.7
Bum 0.95
Vogelsong 5M

A little over $88M.

 

[Stokes1931]

Out of curiosity, people who go to the game, how full is the stadium REALLY? The announced "sell outs" are for tickets sold, not attendance (people actually walking into the park). How empty are the real crappy sections (302-305, 332-336). I've been to games (back in 2008) with "paid attendance" around 28-30,000 and the place was pretty darn empty.

Edit: In fact, here are a few pictures from 2008 :

They were taken just a few minutes before first pitch (the group of people near home plate are there for "throw out first pitch")

Wow. At first glance, I thought, "Dodger Stadium, five minutes before the first pitch." In fact, this picture is pretty representative of the Dodger Stadium crowds last year after 'The Beating'.

 

[MarcoPolo]

That's about 31 players, leaving 9 spots on the 40 man and the ML roster like so:

I added amounts :

C - Buster ($4M?), Chez3 (.5)
1B - Baby G (.5), Chipmunk (who is chipmunk? ?.5?)
2B - FA, Culberson (.5)
3B - Panda (5.7), Arias (?1M?)
SS - Crawford (.5)
OF - Melkman (?), White Shark (?1M?), Nate (?2?), Kieshnick/Peggs (.5)
SP - Horse, Bum, Freak, Vogey, Zeets (69M)
CL - KCYa (Casilla? 4M)
8th - Romo (?3?), Affeldt (?5?)
SR - Weez (don't think so), LOOGY (?)
LR - Hensley(2M), "cheap ass local" (.5)


That's about 100M, and doesn't include :
2B FA, Melky, BWilson, LOOGY.

About 30M for a 2B, OF, and two bullpen guys via FA is more than enough. They probably need a 2nd starting OF via FA, because having Blanco and Nate as 2/3 of the OF scares me.

I didn't include Wilson because IMO I don't think he'll be ready by opening day (TJ often takes more than a year, and often 18-24 months to come back
to full strength).

I didn't include Melky because I have no idea what he'll sign for.

caveat - any figures that aren't "contractual obligations" are guesses on my part.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Out of curiosity, people who go to the game, how full is the stadium REALLY? The announced "sell outs" are for tickets sold, not attendance (people actually walking into the park). How empty are the real crappy sections (302-305, 332-336).

I'm re-posting this, as I really am curious. I still get "offers" from cut-rate ticket providers for Giants games, so I think (apparently I have to point out that this is an opinion of mine, or get slammed) the Giants are selling blocks of the crappy seats for cheap to wholesalers (sections 302-5, 332-6, and the top 5 or so rows of "view reserved"). It's a great way to claim "sold out" even if they sold the last 6000 seats for $5 each.

So, how empty ARE the crappy seats?

 

[tzill]

A little over $88M.

Thanks for the corrections; I misread Timmy's salary and failed to include Vogey. Nonetheless, my total amount is right, about $81MM.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Thanks for the corrections; I misread Timmy's salary and failed to include Vogey. Nonetheless, my total amount is right, about $81MM.

Yup. I didn't add up your figures to check they added up to 81, I assumed they did and I just added to extra 7M in. But now that I add them up, I see that the total WAS correct, it's 81.

 

[tzill]

I'm re-posting this, as I really am curious. I still get "offers" from cut-rate ticket providers for Giants games, so I think (apparently I have to point out that this is an opinion of mine, or get slammed) the Giants are selling blocks of the crappy seats for cheap to wholesalers (sections 302-5, 332-6, and the top 5 or so rows of "view reserved"). It's a great way to claim "sold out" even if they sold the last 6000 seats for $5 each.

So, how empty ARE the crappy seats?

See how easy that was? You gave a reasoned opinion with a supporting theory. Much nicer to read than "the Giants a full of shit...they juke the tickets sold so they can claim sellouts that really aren't."

FWIW, your theory makes some sense, but I'd doubt that it's as many a 6k seats disposed of in this fashion. First, many games are sold out as soon as tickets go on sale to the public in February. Second, lots of groups get group seating tickets (e.g. Jewish Heritage Night, my synagogue goes every year and buys about 50 tickets).

It depends on the day of the week and the opponent, but often the crappiest seats are still 75% full.

 

[msgkings322]

See how easy that was? You gave a reasoned opinion with a supporting theory. Much nicer to read than "the Giants a full of shit...they juke the tickets sold so they can claim sellouts that really aren't."

FWIW, your theory makes some sense, but I'd doubt that it's as many a 6k seats disposed of in this fashion. First, many games are sold out as soon as tickets go on sale to the public in February. Second, lots of groups get group seating tickets (e.g. Jewish Heritage Night, my synagogue goes every year and buys about 50 tickets).

It depends on the day of the week and the opponent, but often the crappiest seats are still 75% full.

My wife and I sometimes joke about that. I mean, as a Jew, the idea of a special grouping of Jews in a crowd, you could call it a 'camp' perhaps, where the Jews are 'concentrated' in the ballpark, perhaps wearing some kind of badge to show you are part of the group....I mean, it feels like...something...hmmmm

 

[gp956]

My wife and I sometimes joke about that. I mean, as a Jew, the idea of a special grouping of Jews in a crowd, you could call it a 'camp' perhaps, where the Jews are 'concentrated' in the ballpark, perhaps wearing some kind of badge to show you are part of the group....I mean, it feels like...something...hmmmm