Game Thread: 4.30 Roupp @ King

[tzill]

1. M Yastrzemski (L) RF
2. W Adames (R) SS
3. J Lee (L) CF
4. M Chapman (R) 3B
5. W Flores (R) DH
6. H Ramos (R) LF
7. L Wade Jr. (L) 1B
8. P Bailey (S) C
9. T Fitzgerald (R) 2B

Roupp
RHP
2-1, 4.56 ERA, 31 K

Weekday afternoon baseball. Massive deficit on the mound. What could go wrong??

 

[tzill]

Top of the first, officially a shitshow.

Batdouchery and baseclownery. All we need is a solid mound crapping and we are good to go.

 

[tzill]

Well on our way to a moundshattery. Well played, Giants.

They will never see a lead in this series.

 

[tzill]

Breaking: Steph out of tonight’s game with illness. He’s been watching the SF/SD series and can’t stop throwing up.

 

[msgkings322]

Mean reversion is a harsh toke

 

[LHG]

Just going to leave this here (from MLBTR's subscription Q &A):

John asks:


The Giants are 10th in MLB in runs despite being 21st in hits, 17th in HR, T-16th in SB, 23rd in BA, 18th in OBP, 20th in SLG, and 19th in OPS. Doesn’t seem to add up. Can’t all be luck, can it?


The Giants are indeed 10th with 4.63 runs scored per game through about 18.5% of their season. They’re above-average at baserunning, but below average in getting on base and hitting for power. They’re quite poor in barrel rate and hard-hit rate.


From what I can tell, the Giants’ early success boils down to hitting for power with runners in scoring position. With RISP, the team ranks fifth in isolated power and fourth in slugging percentage.


Specifically, five Giants players are morphing into Aaron Judge when runners are in scoring position this year. Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores, Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, and Tyler Fitzgerald are all slugging .579 or better with RISP. Yaz and Lee are actually over .700. In those two cases we are talking about 25-26 plate appearance samples. I’m not sure luck is the right word, but I am confident in saying this has no predictive value.


Statcast’s expected slugging percentage has Yastrzemski at .410 this year and Lee at .456. While not Judge-ian, Lee really is showing more power than expected. I’d use these figures as your “rest of the season” baseline rather than the awesomeness these five players have been able to muster up in April crunch time. Doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy it, but this is not an above-average offense moving forward unless something changes.

 

[msgkings322]

Just going to leave this here (from MLBTR's subscription Q &A):

John asks:


The Giants are 10th in MLB in runs despite being 21st in hits, 17th in HR, T-16th in SB, 23rd in BA, 18th in OBP, 20th in SLG, and 19th in OPS. Doesn’t seem to add up. Can’t all be luck, can it?


The Giants are indeed 10th with 4.63 runs scored per game through about 18.5% of their season. They’re above-average at baserunning, but below average in getting on base and hitting for power. They’re quite poor in barrel rate and hard-hit rate.


From what I can tell, the Giants’ early success boils down to hitting for power with runners in scoring position. With RISP, the team ranks fifth in isolated power and fourth in slugging percentage.


Specifically, five Giants players are morphing into Aaron Judge when runners are in scoring position this year. Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores, Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, and Tyler Fitzgerald are all slugging .579 or better with RISP. Yaz and Lee are actually over .700. In those two cases we are talking about 25-26 plate appearance samples. I’m not sure luck is the right word, but I am confident in saying this has no predictive value.


Statcast’s expected slugging percentage has Yastrzemski at .410 this year and Lee at .456. While not Judge-ian, Lee really is showing more power than expected. I’d use these figures as your “rest of the season” baseline rather than the awesomeness these five players have been able to muster up in April crunch time. Doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy it, but this is not an above-average offense moving forward unless something changes.

On pace for 99 wins still...so that will come down. I'm still thinking 90 give or take. So go 71-60 the rest of the way, not some impossible task