Game Thread: 4.30 Roupp @ King

[tzill]

1. M Yastrzemski (L) RF
2. W Adames (R) SS
3. J Lee (L) CF
4. M Chapman (R) 3B
5. W Flores (R) DH
6. H Ramos (R) LF
7. L Wade Jr. (L) 1B
8. P Bailey (S) C
9. T Fitzgerald (R) 2B

Roupp
RHP
2-1, 4.56 ERA, 31 K

Weekday afternoon baseball. Massive deficit on the mound. What could go wrong??

 

[tzill]

Top of the first, officially a shitshow.

Batdouchery and baseclownery. All we need is a solid mound crapping and we are good to go.

 

[tzill]

Well on our way to a moundshattery. Well played, Giants.

They will never see a lead in this series.

 

[tzill]

Breaking: Steph out of tonight’s game with illness. He’s been watching the SF/SD series and can’t stop throwing up.

 

[msgkings322]

Mean reversion is a harsh toke

 

[LHG]

Just going to leave this here (from MLBTR's subscription Q &A):

John asks:


The Giants are 10th in MLB in runs despite being 21st in hits, 17th in HR, T-16th in SB, 23rd in BA, 18th in OBP, 20th in SLG, and 19th in OPS. Doesn’t seem to add up. Can’t all be luck, can it?


The Giants are indeed 10th with 4.63 runs scored per game through about 18.5% of their season. They’re above-average at baserunning, but below average in getting on base and hitting for power. They’re quite poor in barrel rate and hard-hit rate.


From what I can tell, the Giants’ early success boils down to hitting for power with runners in scoring position. With RISP, the team ranks fifth in isolated power and fourth in slugging percentage.


Specifically, five Giants players are morphing into Aaron Judge when runners are in scoring position this year. Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores, Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, and Tyler Fitzgerald are all slugging .579 or better with RISP. Yaz and Lee are actually over .700. In those two cases we are talking about 25-26 plate appearance samples. I’m not sure luck is the right word, but I am confident in saying this has no predictive value.


Statcast’s expected slugging percentage has Yastrzemski at .410 this year and Lee at .456. While not Judge-ian, Lee really is showing more power than expected. I’d use these figures as your “rest of the season” baseline rather than the awesomeness these five players have been able to muster up in April crunch time. Doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy it, but this is not an above-average offense moving forward unless something changes.

 

[msgkings322]

Just going to leave this here (from MLBTR's subscription Q &A):

John asks:


The Giants are 10th in MLB in runs despite being 21st in hits, 17th in HR, T-16th in SB, 23rd in BA, 18th in OBP, 20th in SLG, and 19th in OPS. Doesn’t seem to add up. Can’t all be luck, can it?


The Giants are indeed 10th with 4.63 runs scored per game through about 18.5% of their season. They’re above-average at baserunning, but below average in getting on base and hitting for power. They’re quite poor in barrel rate and hard-hit rate.


From what I can tell, the Giants’ early success boils down to hitting for power with runners in scoring position. With RISP, the team ranks fifth in isolated power and fourth in slugging percentage.


Specifically, five Giants players are morphing into Aaron Judge when runners are in scoring position this year. Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores, Matt Chapman, Jung Hoo Lee, and Tyler Fitzgerald are all slugging .579 or better with RISP. Yaz and Lee are actually over .700. In those two cases we are talking about 25-26 plate appearance samples. I’m not sure luck is the right word, but I am confident in saying this has no predictive value.


Statcast’s expected slugging percentage has Yastrzemski at .410 this year and Lee at .456. While not Judge-ian, Lee really is showing more power than expected. I’d use these figures as your “rest of the season” baseline rather than the awesomeness these five players have been able to muster up in April crunch time. Doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy it, but this is not an above-average offense moving forward unless something changes.

On pace for 99 wins still...so that will come down. I'm still thinking 90 give or take. So go 71-60 the rest of the way, not some impossible task

 

[tzill]

Brisbee this morning:

The Giants didn’t have a win probability over 50 percent for a single pitch of the Padres series, and it felt like it. It would almost make you more comfortable if you could blame at least one of the games on a single error or relief appearance. Instead, it was a collective effort in the wrong kind of way.

 

[msgkings322]

Brisbee this morning:

The Giants didn’t have a win probability over 50 percent for a single pitch of the Padres series, and it felt like it. It would almost make you more comfortable if you could blame at least one of the games on a single error or relief appearance. Instead, it was a collective effort in the wrong kind of way.

It was a reminder that our hot start is distracting from the reality that this is a wild card team not a potential division winner like SD or LA

 

[tzill]

More Brisbee:

In the eighth inning of Wednesday’s game, Matt Chapman represented the tying run with two outs. He should have represented the go-ahead run after a Jung Hoo Lee walk, but Phil Cuzzi remains one of the few umpires that most baseball fans can name (not a good thing), but that’s not the point. The inning started with a three-run deficit, but Mike Yastrzemski’s homer got them a run closer, and another comeback felt possible. It might have even felt likely. This was the 2025 Giants, after all.

Chapman swung through a letter-high fastball to end the inning, and his batting average dropped to under .200 for the season. It was a microcosm of everything we don’t know yet. Chapman struck out in six of his eight at-bats in the series (bad), but he also leads the league in walks (good) and is also second on the team in home runs (good) with five (bad, if you’d prefer that kind of total to be third or fourth). The overall package has been a lot better than what most players have given their teams this season as Chapman’s a top-20 player by WAR, according to Baseball Reference. But it leaves you wondering exactly what to expect for the next five months.

It was the at-bat that best described the game, and it might have been the at-bat that best described the series, and the overall season from Chapman is one that might best describe the entire team so far. Probably good. Still very much a mystery.

 

[LHG]

More Brisbee:

In the eighth inning of Wednesday’s game, Matt Chapman represented the tying run with two outs. He should have represented the go-ahead run after a Jung Hoo Lee walk, but Phil Cuzzi remains one of the few umpires that most baseball fans can name (not a good thing), but that’s not the point. The inning started with a three-run deficit, but Mike Yastrzemski’s homer got them a run closer, and another comeback felt possible. It might have even felt likely. This was the 2025 Giants, after all.

Chapman swung through a letter-high fastball to end the inning, and his batting average dropped to under .200 for the season. It was a microcosm of everything we don’t know yet. Chapman struck out in six of his eight at-bats in the series (bad), but he also leads the league in walks (good) and is also second on the team in home runs (good) with five (bad, if you’d prefer that kind of total to be third or fourth). The overall package has been a lot better than what most players have given their teams this season as Chapman’s a top-20 player by WAR, according to Baseball Reference. But it leaves you wondering exactly what to expect for the next five months.

It was the at-bat that best described the game, and it might have been the at-bat that best described the series, and the overall season from Chapman is one that might best describe the entire team so far. Probably good. Still very much a mystery.

Chapman is what he is - a really, really gifted defensive player that shows flashes with the bat but is mainly very frustrating at the plate.

 

[tzill]

Chapman is what he is - a really, really gifted defensive player that shows flashes with the bat but is mainly very frustrating at the plate.

I feel like he is exactly as feared when we traded for him: a K machine that can go yard.

Love the glove obviously, but those whiffs...ugh.