2024 Trade Deadline

[LHG]

We've already begun some discussions about the trade deadline (mainly around Robert and Bichette), so I thought it would be good to start a new thread dedicated to this conversation. I'll post below an answer by one of the MLBTR writers to two questions about the Reds and the Giants acquiring Robert and what it would take.

 

[LHG]

Jeff asks:

What exactly would it take for the Reds to acquire Luis Robert from the White Sox?

Pete asks:

With the White Sox in full teardown mode (what took them so long?), could the oft-injured Luis Robert and prospect Jacob Gonzalez be had for a Giants package of Marco Luciano, Mason Black, David Villar and Jorge Soler (with the Giants eating half of Soler’s remaining contract)? Too much? Not enough?

Luis Robert Jr. is under contract through 2027, assuming his ’26 and ’27 club options are exercised. So if the White Sox trade him at this year’s deadline, that’s 3 1/3 years of control (and potentially four pennant races). Robert would earn roughly $59.2MM during this period, and he turns 27 in August. After last year’s 4.9 WAR campaign, teams figure to be salivating over Robert, though that was the only time he played more than 98 games in a season. He already missed two months this year due to a Grade 2 right hip flexor strain. In Chicago’s nine games since his return, he’s sat in two of them and DH’d in another, so they’re easing him back in.

So the important factors for White Sox GM Chris Getz with Robert are the team’s timeline toward contention, and possibly trying to sell high with regard to the injury situation. The best sell-high window was last winter after he’d played 145 games; Robert has already reminded us this year that he usually misses significant time. I could see the White Sox contending in 2027, but if they won’t be good until the last year of Robert’s contract, they should trade him now. ESPN’s Jeff Passan said the Sox are “willing to deal” Robert.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote that “the White Sox would command a package greater than what the Padres gave up for Juan Soto at the 2022 deadline” for Robert.

When the Padres acquired Soto at the 2022 deadline, he had 2 1/3 years of control remaining. Soto will paid almost exactly $60MM for that period, underlining what a great deal Robert is if he stays healthy. Soto, who was acquired by the Padres along with Josh Bell, netted C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Jarlin Susana, and Luke Voit. In terms of prospect rankings, MLB.com had Abrams at #9, Hassell at #37, and Gore at #86. Wood was flirting with top ten in the game status by the time the 2023 season started.

Robert is not the superstar Soto was/is, and that’s not necessarily balanced out by the extra year of control, given Robert’s health history. But if you wanted to say that three top-100 type prospects/young players would be the starting point for Robert, I could buy that. I might also expect the White Sox to lean a bit more toward pitching than the Nationals did.

Baseball America just updated their top 100 prospects on June 5th, so we’ll use that. The Reds have Rhett Lowder (28) and Noelvi Marte (35) on that list, and I do think a Robert package would start with both of them. Graham Ashcraft would make sense as part of this deal as well. Edwin Arroyo and Cam Collier made MLB.com’s top 100 for the Reds prior to the season. Before the season, Keith Law had Marte (17), Collier (50), Lowder (60), Arroyo (78), and Sal Stewart (93). Injured position players Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Matt McLain could also be of interest to the White Sox, in theory.

The Giants have one player on BA’s top 100 in Bryce Eldridge (50), while MLB.com’s preseason list included Marco Luciano (43) and Carson Whisenhunt (66). Before the season, Law had Kyle Harrison (11), Luciano (84), and Eldridge (85).

Having said that something starting with Lowder + Marte seems reasonable for the Reds to acquire Robert, I don’t see how a Giants package led by Luciano would come close.

 

[tzill]

wRC+ by position in 2024

Overall: 102 wRC+

C: 104 wRC+
1B: 126 wRC+
2B: 87 wRC+
3B: 102 wRC+
SS: 111 wRC+
LF: 128 wRC+
CF: 84 wRC+
RF: 94 wRC+
DH: 99 wRC+

 

[msgkings322]

Jeff asks:

What exactly would it take for the Reds to acquire Luis Robert from the White Sox?

Pete asks:

With the White Sox in full teardown mode (what took them so long?), could the oft-injured Luis Robert and prospect Jacob Gonzalez be had for a Giants package of Marco Luciano, Mason Black, David Villar and Jorge Soler (with the Giants eating half of Soler’s remaining contract)? Too much? Not enough?

Luis Robert Jr. is under contract through 2027, assuming his ’26 and ’27 club options are exercised. So if the White Sox trade him at this year’s deadline, that’s 3 1/3 years of control (and potentially four pennant races). Robert would earn roughly $59.2MM during this period, and he turns 27 in August. After last year’s 4.9 WAR campaign, teams figure to be salivating over Robert, though that was the only time he played more than 98 games in a season. He already missed two months this year due to a Grade 2 right hip flexor strain. In Chicago’s nine games since his return, he’s sat in two of them and DH’d in another, so they’re easing him back in.

So the important factors for White Sox GM Chris Getz with Robert are the team’s timeline toward contention, and possibly trying to sell high with regard to the injury situation. The best sell-high window was last winter after he’d played 145 games; Robert has already reminded us this year that he usually misses significant time. I could see the White Sox contending in 2027, but if they won’t be good until the last year of Robert’s contract, they should trade him now. ESPN’s Jeff Passan said the Sox are “willing to deal” Robert.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote that “the White Sox would command a package greater than what the Padres gave up for Juan Soto at the 2022 deadline” for Robert.

When the Padres acquired Soto at the 2022 deadline, he had 2 1/3 years of control remaining. Soto will paid almost exactly $60MM for that period, underlining what a great deal Robert is if he stays healthy. Soto, who was acquired by the Padres along with Josh Bell, netted C.J. Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, Jarlin Susana, and Luke Voit. In terms of prospect rankings, MLB.com had Abrams at #9, Hassell at #37, and Gore at #86. Wood was flirting with top ten in the game status by the time the 2023 season started.

Robert is not the superstar Soto was/is, and that’s not necessarily balanced out by the extra year of control, given Robert’s health history. But if you wanted to say that three top-100 type prospects/young players would be the starting point for Robert, I could buy that. I might also expect the White Sox to lean a bit more toward pitching than the Nationals did.

Baseball America just updated their top 100 prospects on June 5th, so we’ll use that. The Reds have Rhett Lowder (28) and Noelvi Marte (35) on that list, and I do think a Robert package would start with both of them. Graham Ashcraft would make sense as part of this deal as well. Edwin Arroyo and Cam Collier made MLB.com’s top 100 for the Reds prior to the season. Before the season, Keith Law had Marte (17), Collier (50), Lowder (60), Arroyo (78), and Sal Stewart (93). Injured position players Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Matt McLain could also be of interest to the White Sox, in theory.

The Giants have one player on BA’s top 100 in Bryce Eldridge (50), while MLB.com’s preseason list included Marco Luciano (43) and Carson Whisenhunt (66). Before the season, Law had Kyle Harrison (11), Luciano (84), and Eldridge (85).

Having said that something starting with Lowder + Marte seems reasonable for the Reds to acquire Robert, I don’t see how a Giants package led by Luciano would come close.

Told y'all he's the real deal as far as coveted trades. We gotta do something meaningful even if it's not Robert

 

[LHG]

Oh, could a mod fix my error in the year in the thread title? Not trying to look that far into the future.

 

[calsnowskier]

Oh, could a mod fix my error in the year in the thread title? Not trying to look that far into the future.

If you are going to wuss out, fine. I will cover for you.

 

[Stokes1931]

If you are going to wuss out, fine. I will cover for you.

That's why filo pays you the big bucks, out of our dues.

 

[calsnowskier]

That's why filo pays you the big bucks, out of our dues.

How do you think I was able to afford that helipad?

A dupe and his his money, and all that…

 

[LHG]

If you are going to wuss out, fine. I will cover for you.

 

[LHG]

How do you think I was able to afford that helipad?

A dupe and his his money, and all that…

Is Damon working maintenance for you now that he is unemployed?

 

[calsnowskier]

Is Damon working maintenance for you now that he is unemployed?

 

[Stokes1931]

How do you think I was able to afford that helipad?

A dupe and his his money, and all that…

Only a helipad? Why not the private plane at Palo Alto Muni?

 

[calsnowskier]

Only a helipad? Why not the private plane at Palo Alto Muni?

Even with the helipad, San Diego to Palo Alto is a long commute…

 

[tzill]

Even with the helipad, San Diego to Palo Alto is a long commute…

For the long commutes, I recommend the private jet to Mallorca.

 

[calsnowskier]

For the long commutes, I recommend the private jet to Mallorca.

Anyone on this board have any insight into that topic?

 

[tzill]

Anyone on this board have any insight into that topic?

Gotta wonder....

 

[msgkings322]

So I'm curious why people think Bo Bichette is on the trading block, isn't Toronto in the wild card hunt? The AL is far less bunched up than the NL but they are only 4 back in mid June

 

[LHG]

So I'm curious why people think Bo Bichette is on the trading block, isn't Toronto in the wild card hunt? The AL is far less bunched up than the NL but they are only 4 back in mid June

There are rumblings that they should trade. However, I don't see why they would trade guys off.

 

[msgkings322]

There are rumblings that they should trade. However, I don't see why they would trade guys off.

I mean, there's lots of time before the deadline so maybe if they fall back further in the next month+

 

[tzill]

Last 30 games
Mike Yaz (Batting Avg -OBP-Slugging)
.206/.287/.423

Michael Conforto
.216/.275/.360

Play Matos and Slater.