2024 Free agency and draft thread

[ducky]

How are they going to be able to afford anything else?

People just arent keeping up with the numbers.

Burrow + Higgins + Chase at their contract AAV's applied to this years cap account for only 43% of the cap. Certainly not small. But not completely crippling either.

Project that same AAV's 2 years down the road and it is only 36% of the projected cap.

They really need to start reporting these contracts in terms of percentages just so we can keep up!

The one thing this does prove out though is that it is always best to sign your guy as soon as you can. Had they sign both Chase and Higgins last offseason, it would have cost them about $30M less over the life of these contracts. This is where a cash poor team like Cinci really gets screwed as they were too busy searching the couch cushions for Burrow's guaranteed money to give these guys their deals.

 

[Shanemansj13]

People just arent keeping up with the numbers.

Burrow + Higgins + Chase at their contract AAV's applied to this years cap account for only 43% of the cap. Certainly not small. But not completely crippling either.

Project that same AAV's 2 years down the road and it is only 36% of the projected cap.

They really need to start reporting these contracts in terms of percentages just so we can keep up!

The one thing this does prove out though is that it is always best to sign your guy as soon as you can. Had they sign both Chase and Higgins last offseason, it would have cost them about $30M less over the life of these contracts. This is where a cash poor team like Cinci really gets screwed as they were too busy searching the couch cushions for Burrow's guaranteed money to give these guys their deals.

Your final point is the main point for that franchise. They are a cash poor team so this hurts them more than other teams and they are less likely to push cap down the road and/or restructure. Sure ONLY 40% but to field a decent defense and OL, the draft will be key for them. That isn’t counting Hendrickson, who they are trying to pay. I wouldn’t anticipate more than a 3 year deal (2 years ultimately) so that won’t be anything long-term. They will definitely be going heavy OL and defense for years to come.
Another key is Higgins, it’s not like he has been very healthy. That is quite a bit for a WR2. Yes a WR1 on most teams but health being the biggest question mark with him

 

[fightinfunbags]

Rams got Goff to the Super Bowl, I'd say they did better with him than the Lions have thus far.

Rams definitely need to find someone to prepare for the future beyond Stafford. Tough to be in the mix to draft a worthy QB when you don't bottom out first. It takes an extreme outlier to find someone later.

Among the best QBs in the league only about half went in the top 10.

 

[Clayton]

Among the best QBs in the league only about half went in the top 10.

Yeah, but all of the QBs that resemble those QBs will go top 10 from now on

 

[fightinfunbags]

Yeah, but all of the QBs that resemble those QBs will go top 10 from now on

You’ll still have your Purdys, your Lamars, your Hurts that will be available for everyone to have picked. I love the kid the Eagles have Tanner McKee who went in like round 5 or 6. I think there are so many highly skilled QBs these days that it’s more about the people developing them.

 

[Clayton]

You’ll still have your Purdys, your Lamars, your Hurts that will be available for everyone to have picked. I love the kid the Eagles have Tanner McKee who went in like round 5 or 6. I think there are so many highly skilled QBs these days that it’s more about the people developing them.

My comp for Bo Nix was Purdy. People overdrafted Anthony Richardson almost certainly as a reaction to Hurts.

If someone falls, its going to be an unathletic pocket passer. Like Brady. Maybe we've come full circle but the value in drafting is being ahead of trends. Or maybe the trend is to ignore QBs unless you have the best coaches. Hard to know.

 

[fightinfunbags]

My comp for Bo Nix was Purdy. People overdrafted Anthony Richardson almost certainly as a reaction to Hurts.

If someone falls, its going to be an unathletic pocket passer. Like Brady. Maybe we've come full circle but the value in drafting is being ahead of trends. Or maybe the trend is to ignore QBs unless you have the best coaches. Hard to know.

Fair. I think I understand your theory now.

 

[Clayton]

I think I understand your theory now.

My general theory is that about half or more of a QBs development happens after the draft. College can give you Trevor Lawrence. Everything above that requires an NFL system that pushes you to higher levels.

 

[fightinfunbags]

My general theory is that about half or more of a QBs development happens after the draft. College can give you Trevor Lawrence. Everything above that requires an NFL system that pushes you to higher levels.

Agree 100%. In the NFL it seems like you do a great deal of reading post snap wherein everything you need to read in college is mostly presnap.

 

[Clayton]

Agree 100%. In the NFL it seems like you do a great deal of reading post snap wherein everything you need to read in college is mostly presnap.

Yeah, I like hearing Kurt Warner talk about college prospects because he really doesnt hold back. The gist I get is that in college you run the same couple of plays over and over and often even make the same reads over and over.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

lmao Bengals wtf... Well you'll have two great receivers, a great QB... and I guess Trey Hendrickson.. and then pray to God you draft well with everything else. Maybe that's why they are asking so much for Hendrickson. Seems ridiculous to spend that much money on two wideouts.

 

[Clayton]

lmao Bengals wtf... Well you'll have two great receivers, a great QB... and I guess Trey Hendrickson.. and then pray to God you draft well with everything else. Maybe that's why they are asking so much for Hendrickson. Seems ridiculous to spend that much money on two wideouts.

Yeah, I think conventional wisdom would be to let Higgins walk and get your 3rd rounder next year and some cash free for 2-3 starters somewhere else. I do think the Bengals have value in being able to just bomb the heck out of teams but it makes them a bit of a one trick pony.

 

[cdumler7]

My general theory is that about half or more of a QBs development happens after the draft. College can give you Trevor Lawrence. Everything above that requires an NFL system that pushes you to higher levels.

This is why to me if you are planning on drafting a QB in the top-10 you better have an offensive staff in place that can actually do something with the player. Throw in then making sure to not leave them high and dry when it comes to talent around them. Not saying he would have been a star, but Darnold going to the Jets and them giving him almost no help on the offensive side of the ball set him up for failure. Throw in a coach now known as not a great coach leading to there being almost 0 chance Darnold could have been successful.

Then you look at a guy like Mahomes. Super talented but he also fell into an incredible spot. One of the best offensive minds the game has ever seen, an OL that was strong, and to start his career 2 of the best weapons in all of football. If Mahomes were to fail it was not because the Chiefs didn't do everything possible to help him. What we've seen though is one of the most physically gifted arms to ever play the game get maximized in his opportunity.

 

[Clayton]

This is why to me if you are planning on drafting a QB in the top-10 you better have an offensive staff in place that can actually do something with the player. Throw in then making sure to not leave them high and dry when it comes to talent around them. Not saying he would have been a star, but Darnold going to the Jets and them giving him almost no help on the offensive side of the ball set him up for failure. Throw in a coach now known as not a great coach leading to there being almost 0 chance Darnold could have been successful.

Then you look at a guy like Mahomes. Super talented but he also fell into an incredible spot. One of the best offensive minds the game has ever seen, an OL that was strong, and to start his career 2 of the best weapons in all of football. If Mahomes were to fail it was not because the Chiefs didn't do everything possible to help him. What we've seen though is one of the most physically gifted arms to ever play the game get maximized in his opportunity.

Chiefs offensive talent peaked in 2019. Great spot for Mahomes to develop. A big part of the Chiefs system is that guys get open and so Mahomes has the luxury of making as few contested throws as possible. Coming out of college, people were worried Mahomes would be an INT machine. You remove that from the equation and an easy transition to utilize his gifts to become a superstar. I think we've also seen DC after DC come up with things that give the Chiefs offense issues and they have to adjust. Co-evolution. You aren't going to see a QBs ceiling in college. You're going to see it after the 4th or 5th DC in the NFL gets a good look at him and then maybe again in year 2 once teams can build to adjust to the new QB.

I remember a lot of people were unsure about Bo Nix but it seems like a lot of people loved the fit of Bo Nix with Sean Payton.

I still think you generally need to take a QB high when he is there. It has to be the priority but you can't just wing it.

 

[cdumler7]

Chiefs offensive talent peaked in 2019. Great spot for Mahomes to develop. A big part of the Chiefs system is that guys get open and so Mahomes has the luxury of making as few contested throws as possible. Coming out of college, people were worried Mahomes would be an INT machine. You remove that from the equation and an easy transition to utilize his gifts to become a superstar. I think we've also seen DC after DC come up with things that give the Chiefs offense issues and they have to adjust. Co-evolution. You aren't going to see a QBs ceiling in college. You're going to see it after the 4th or 5th DC in the NFL gets a good look at him and then maybe again in year 2 once teams can build to adjust to the new QB.

I remember a lot of people were unsure about Bo Nix but it seems like a lot of people loved the fit of Bo Nix with Sean Payton.

I still think you generally need to take a QB high when he is there. It has to be the priority but you can't just wing it.

Yeah I think Bo Nix fell into the right spot. His skill set is not for everyone in the league but his greatest attributes are his mind and accuracy. Two things that Payton values above anything else when it comes to the QB position. He doesn't need the greatest athlete (although Nix was much more of an athlete than I think anyone realized) and he doesn't need the biggest arm to fully manage 95% of what Payton likes to do. Throw in they already had the OL in place to give him a great opportunity to succeed. Now just have to build up the weapons.

And I would agree this is why you see the sophomore slump happen for a lot of QB's. Coaches get an entire offseason to study tape and also add players to their scheme especially within the division that they think could be the Mahomes stopper. We've seen Mahomes go from the throw it deep and big play type guy to having to take what the defense gives him with the short quick passes. Throw in then the talent types around him have changed over the years so having to work with what your weapons are good at is a sign of a guy that has true staying power near the top. This past season was for sure a down year for him, but depending when they get Rice back and with Worthy really showing more towards the end of the year I would expect a better year for Mahomes.

 

[Battlelyon]

 

[Clayton]

Yeah I think Bo Nix fell into the right spot. His skill set is not for everyone in the league but his greatest attributes are his mind and accuracy. Two things that Payton values above anything else when it comes to the QB position. He doesn't need the greatest athlete (although Nix was much more of an athlete than I think anyone realized) and he doesn't need the biggest arm to fully manage 95% of what Payton likes to do. Throw in they already had the OL in place to give him a great opportunity to succeed. Now just have to build up the weapons.

And I would agree this is why you see the sophomore slump happen for a lot of QB's. Coaches get an entire offseason to study tape and also add players to their scheme especially within the division that they think could be the Mahomes stopper. We've seen Mahomes go from the throw it deep and big play type guy to having to take what the defense gives him with the short quick passes. Throw in then the talent types around him have changed over the years so having to work with what your weapons are good at is a sign of a guy that has true staying power near the top. This past season was for sure a down year for him, but depending when they get Rice back and with Worthy really showing more towards the end of the year I would expect a better year for Mahomes.

Nix is a much better athlete than he gets credit for. I think people just saw Oregons offense and thought anyone could run it. Elite accuracy, processing, and athleticism. I think this is where the disconnect comes when people see Sanders coming out. Elite accuracy and..thats kinda it. The bar for QBs is bananas right now.

 

[redseat]

 

[VikingFan2k2]

Yeah, I like hearing Kurt Warner talk about college prospects because he really doesnt hold back. The gist I get is that in college you run the same couple of plays over and over and often even make the same reads over and over.

Kurt is one of my favorites. A straight shooter and he knows his stuff.

 

[ducky]

Eagles once again proving they do it better then the rest.

Ojulari for peanuts on a 1 year prove it deal where they will end up collecting a high comp pick for him next year after he has a solid season on a team that people actually watch. Sometimes I think even NFL GM's dont watch the bad teams play.