2016 Rotation

[msgkings322]

Might as well get its own thread, it's what HAS TO get fixed for us to contend.

Obviously we'd love the team to go Dodger and sign Leake + one of the aces out there.
I put that scenario at 10%....I guess they could then deal Heston for real talent or Peavy for a pack of Big League Chew.

They may just sign Leake. Probably 40% chance.

They may let Leake go elsewhere and sign an ace. 25% chance.

They may do something totally out of left field like trade KT+Heston+Crick etc for a stud. 15% chance

They may do nothing and promote a youngster. 10%

These %s are obviously derived from my rectum, but those are the only real options. The last one is bullshit if they do that, they aren't that dumb.

 

[SFGRTB]

I think the chances of Leake + another stud are better than 10%

Duffy and Panik saw to that.

 

[msgkings322]

I think the chances of Leake + another stud are better than 10%

Duffy and Panik saw to that.

Fair enough, just spitballing. I just don;t know if they can stomach 3 gigantic pitching contracts (Leake/Cain/ace) with another looming (Bumgarner) and the Zito thing. But these guys know what it takes, and a lot of $ comes off the books, and like you said we got a lot of positions filled pretty cheaply.

 

[tzill]

Might as well get its own thread, it's what HAS TO get fixed for us to contend.

Obviously we'd love the team to go Dodger and sign Leake + one of the aces out there.
I put that scenario at 10%....I guess they could then deal Heston for real talent or Peavy for a pack of Big League Chew.

They may just sign Leake. Probably 40% chance.

They may let Leake go elsewhere and sign an ace. 25% chance.

They may do something totally out of left field like trade KT+Heston+Crick etc for a stud. 15% chance

They may do nothing and promote a youngster. 10%

These %s are obviously derived from my rectum, but those are the only real options. The last one is bullshit if they do that, they aren't that dumb.

I think Leake returning is about 80%.
I think signing another good (but not elite) SP at 50%
Doing neither -- 5%

Trade scenario is interesting, but they'd likely have to give up Beede and/or the Sac.

I also think they re-sign Byrd and pick up Aoki's option.

SP: Bum/Zimm/Leake/Cain/Peavy
BP: Strick/JLo/Romo/KCya/Kontos/Osich/Petit
C: MVP/Sac
IF: Belt/Panik/Craw/Duff/KT/??
OF: Aoki/Oxy/Herk/Byrd/Shark

That team contends.

 

[SFGRTB]

Fair enough, just spitballing. I just don;t know if they can stomach 3 gigantic pitching contracts (Leake/Cain/ace) with another looming (Bumgarner) and the Zito thing. But these guys know what it takes, and a lot of $ comes off the books, and like you said we got a lot of positions filled pretty cheaply.

The arguments against are:

The Zito effect
Contract obligations to Crawford, Belt, Bumgarner
Log Jam with Peavy and Cain under contract, but Heston probably better than both

Cain's last season will be 2017. Bumgarner has options running through 2019 (a ridiculously friendly contract). Belt's and Crawford's upcoming free agency is something to think about. I think they could both get extensions this offseason, or at least Crawford. That could have an effect on who they go after.

The Giants only long term commitments are Posey, Pence, Cain and Bum. Can they fit Leake, another stud, Craw and Belt?

 

[msgkings322]

I think Leake returning is about 80%.
I think signing another good (but not elite) SP at 50%
Doing neither -- 5%

Trade scenario is interesting, but they'd likely have to give up Beede and/or the Sac.

I also think they re-sign Byrd and pick up Aoki's option.

SP: Bum/Zimm/Leake/Cain/Peavy
BP: Strick/JLo/Romo/KCya/Kontos/Osich/Petit
C: MVP/Sac
IF: Belt/Panik/Craw/Duff/KT/??
OF: Aoki/Oxy/Herk/Byrd/Shark

That team contends.

Beede's value >> Susac's I'm sorry to say

 

[msgkings322]

The arguments against are:

The Zito effect
Contract obligations to Crawford, Belt, Bumgarner
Log Jam with Peavy and Cain under contract, but Heston probably better than both

Cain's last season will be 2017. Bumgarner has options running through 2019 (a ridiculously friendly contract). Belt's and Crawford's upcoming free agency is something to think about. I think they could both get extensions this offseason, or at least Crawford. That could have an effect on who they go after.

The Giants only long term commitments are Posey, Pence, Cain and Bum. Can they fit Leake, another stud, Craw and Belt?

The logjam is the least of the problems, they could get something for Heston, or dump Peavy for nothing/pick up some of his contract to clear it

 

[SFGRTB]

I think Leake returning is about 80%.
I think signing another good (but not elite) SP at 50%
Doing neither -- 5%

Trade scenario is interesting, but they'd likely have to give up Beede and/or the Sac.

I also think they re-sign Byrd and pick up Aoki's option.

SP: Bum/Zimm/Leake/Cain/Peavy
BP: Strick/JLo/Romo/KCya/Kontos/Osich/Petit
C: MVP/Sac
IF: Belt/Panik/Craw/Duff/KT/??
OF: Aoki/Oxy/Herk/Byrd/Shark

That team contends.

I've thought about the potential trade of Heston, but I agree, IDK how much value he has alone. Peavy would have to be a bad contract swap.

 

[msgkings322]

I've thought about the potential trade of Heston, but I agree, IDK how much value he has alone. Peavy would have to be a bad contract swap.

There's always Heston + Tomlinson + Crick for a decent starter....

 

[tzill]

Beede's value >> Susac's I'm sorry to say

Maybe, but maybe not. He's coming off injury and he's hit in the majors. I still maintain he's one of the 10 best catchers in baseball.

Strong claim, but I'll be proven right on this one. I'd hold on to him, move MVP to 1b 80 games and Belt to LF for 80 games, starting Sac 80 games behind the dish.

 

[tzill]

I've thought about the potential trade of Heston, but I agree, IDK how much value he has alone. Peavy would have to be a bad contract swap.

Not the Giants way, to dump a vet's contract. Can't think of one.

 

[SFGRTB]

Not the Giants way, to dump a vet's contract. Can't think of one.

Yeah, I mean short of guys creating problems in the clubhouse, or just truly sucking (Rowand, Tejada, Cabrera), it's not their way. Peavy is none of those either. Great in the clubhouse and can still be effective.

 

[msgkings322]

Yeah, I mean short of guys creating problems in the clubhouse, or just truly sucking (Rowand, Tejada, Cabrera), it's not their way. Peavy is none of those either. Great in the clubhouse and can still be effective.

If they sign 2 pitchers, somone's gotta go and it ain't gonna be Cain. Either they dump Peavy for nothing (or another team's bad contract for an infielder) or Heston for real value back.

 

[filosofy29]

Bumgarner, Leake, Peavy, Heston, Cain.

Need to get an OF or two (Preferably Fowler and/or maybe Parra).

Fowler - CF
Panik - 2B
Duffy - 3B
Posey - C
Pence - RF
Belt - 1B
Crawford - SS
Parra - LF

Bench of Pagan, Blanco, KT.....

 

[calsnowskier]

Bumgarner, Leake, Peavy, Heston, Cain.

Need to get an OF or two (Preferably Fowler and/or maybe Parra).

Fowler - CF
Panik - 2B
Duffy - 3B
Posey - C
Pence - RF
Belt - 1B
Crawford - SS
Parra - LF

Bench of Pagan, Blanco, KT.....

That is not a contenders rotation.

I think there will be at least 1 biggish trade this year. And it might hurt.

 

[tzill]

Yeah, I mean short of guys creating problems in the clubhouse, or just truly sucking (Rowand, Tejada, Cabrera), it's not their way. Peavy is none of those either. Great in the clubhouse and can still be effective.

When I posted that, I thought of RoRo...they didn't eat his contract prior to the season to move him....they gave him every opportunity to justify a roster spot and finally had to cut him. I don't see them doing anything different with Peavy.

 

[tzill]

If they sign 2 pitchers, somone's gotta go and it ain't gonna be Cain. Either they dump Peavy for nothing (or another team's bad contract for an infielder) or Heston for real value back.

Or Heston waits in Sacto as the #6. Very little chance they get 1,000 innings from Bum/Zimm/Leake/Cain/Peavy anyway.

 

[tzill]

Bumgarner, Leake, Peavy, Heston, Cain.

Need to get an OF or two (Preferably Fowler and/or maybe Parra).

Fowler - CF
Panik - 2B
Duffy - 3B
Posey - C
Pence - RF
Belt - 1B
Crawford - SS
Parra - LF

Bench of Pagan, Blanco, KT.....

I think there's a 15% chance they go this route with the rotation. I believe Cain and Heston will be decent #3s, and Peavy is an acceptable #5. That might be enough with our outstanding (when healthy) 1-8.

 

[tzill]

Bumgarner, Leake, Peavy, Heston, Cain.

Need to get an OF or two (Preferably Fowler and/or maybe Parra).

Fowler - CF
Panik - 2B
Duffy - 3B
Posey - C
Pence - RF
Belt - 1B
Crawford - SS
Parra - LF

Bench of Pagan, Blanco, KT.....

I don't think they'll move Oxy to the bench until he gets hurt (so, like end of May?). When healthy, he's still quite productive. Silver lining to not being in contention this year is we get a full offseason of rest. Posey, Belt, Panik, Craw, Pence, Oxy, Aoki all get extra time. I don't see us picking up a LF to replace Aoki; before getting hurt he was going to be an all-star. He's a defensive liability for sure, but the man can rake. I think we'll see:

Oxy CF
Panik 2B
Duffy 3B
MVP C
Herk RF
BB9 1B
Stamos SS
Aoki LF

Bench: Sac, KT, Shark, Byrd, ??

That reserve IF role could end up being critical. It won't be EA.

Bullpen: Strick, KCya, JLo, Romo, Kontos, Osich, Petit

Rotation: Bum, Leake, Cain, Peavy, ??

Two ?? positions -- reserve IF and SP. This is the most "set" I've ever seen a Giants team heading into the offseason. And they could stay with Heston (but I doubt it).

 

[tzill]

That is not a contenders rotation.

I think there will be at least 1 biggish trade this year. And it might hurt.

I don't see a reason to shake up the lineup -- it's mostly young, it's mostly homegrown, and it's mostly cheap. Unless they decide to trade BB9 and move MVP to 1B, but I don't see that til 2017 at the earliest.

I don't see a big trade. More likely they'd overspend on a FA SP like Zimm.