2013 - What Went Wrong?

[averagejoe]

I realize that the fantasy season is not over for many of us, but wanted to pick your brains while some facts from the 2013 season are still fresh in your minds.

Of the QB, RB or WR positions, if you had to point to one of these as the leading cause for your team's demise, what contributed to that?

Every one of these positions has its culprits.

QB - Luck tailed off. RG3 never seemed to get on track. Eli seemed to do even worse than in 2012. Wilson started slow. Kaps was mediocre at best most of the year. And even the reliable Brady was a shell of himself to start the season.

RB - Martin, TRich, Spiller, Rice, all disappointing first round picks. And even the second and third tier of RB were hugely bad - SJAx, Ridley, MJD, Miller, CJ, Wilson, yikes!

WR - Injuries wreaked havoc here too - Julio, White, Cruz, Cobb, Wayne, Amendola. But others just under-performed like VJax, Colston and Bowe.

If I had to pick one category, I'd lean towards RB. Many of my leagues, I targeted at least 2 RB in the first 3 rounds (and in a few leagues, in all 3 rounds), so the lack of expected RB play really hurt my chances.

Thoughts?

 

[leftypower]

I'd have to go along with RB being the biggest issue I faced this year. Was really high on Wilson who turned into a complete bust. Figured SJax would do well in ATL - no. TRich sucked and still does. I did guess right on Forte, took a chance on Moreno and held on to Vereen - all panned out very well leading me to the playoffs in my $$ league.
But alas the one player who killed me when it counted most was Stafford in the snow.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Two things killed me in my money league (I expect to move out of the first round this week but after that not so sure) was RB hoarding and injuries to the RB's I hoarded. I still believe you need at least one stud RB and better off with 2 but in the scoring format we use you can actually start 4 RB's. With all of the stud WR's going off the board I was able to have as my first 6 picks: Foster and Martin (keepers), Gore, Andre, DMC and Kaps. Before the season started I can't imagine too many people who would not have liked those 6 starters................anyway, IMO this year was just the opposite; the teams with the stud WR's are the higher scoring teams and the guys who went RB heavy are the ones who got hurt unless you scored with Charles,Lynch, AP, Forte.

 

[TKOSpikes]

It has to be RB (from a draft perspective), but from a season perspective, it's QB. I say that because sure, you may have drafted a bust RB, but there are too many productive ones to count, that are late selections or waiver claims.

What happened this year only enhances my belief for drafts going forward, to what I've always been too scared to do... that's do not draft an RB in the first round, or second round. Sure, there's a handful that will probably anchor your lineup all year, but there's always too much risk otherwise. Most teams are leaning on their mid-rounders and waiver claims right now... except for the receivers they drafted (less the injured).

It happens every year, running backs come from nowhere, and running backs get hurt, or their reign at the top comes to a screeching halt. Receivers are more reliable. Sure, those of you who owned Cobb, Wayne or Julio are regretting, but for the most part, the top 10 receivers remain pretty consistent each year. If you can find two of them to begin your draft, everyone else will fall into place earlier than you think.

As for QB's and a Luck owner, I agree he fell off, but it was all the Reggie Wayne factor, IMO (but let's not forget, put up a 40 burger last week). I still think QB's can be had late in drafts, and never like the look of my team when I take them early. My main money league started out with Vick, turned to a few others (should have just handcuffed him with Foles apparently), before trading Ridley for Rivers and MJD. clap In seasonal 12 team leagues or fewer, there are just too many options for me to justify starting out with Peyton or Brees...or Rodgers or Cam... etc.

 

[Trudem]

This was my team and im still shocked I missed the playoffs:

Newton
McCoy and Forte - have since traded both
Garcon - traded
Roddy White-dropped the bastard
Ryan Mathews/Pierre Thomas - traded Mathews

Bench:
Blackmon
Harvin
and some others that I either dropped or traded

My current team:

Newton
Moreno and Jennings
Nelson and Cruz
Julius Thomas
Pierre Thomas

Bench:

Blackmon, Hopkins, Hunter, Patterson, Rogers and T. Williams
Ball, Pierce and Stepfan Taylor
Ertz and Finley

im very disappointed

 

[SFNL]

Although still alive... QB. I didn't take one until the 5th round (Dalton) and tried to stockpile skill players. I succeeded in doing that (1st Charles) (2nd Green) (3rd Ball) (4th Marshall).

Ball has been my biggest disappointment as far as drafting position goes, but if he has a good night tonight, all is forgiven. I traded Roethlisberger away to get Harry Douglas and that provided me with a nice boost when I needed it.

Anyway... QB has been my problem. Dalton has been inconsistent at best and has had his best weeks when I didn't start him.

 

[averagejoe]

It happens every year, running backs come from nowhere, and running backs get hurt, or their reign at the top comes to a screeching halt.

Not disagreeing with you TKO, but to rely on the waiver wire can be just as frustrating. For instance, Moreno. Let's say he goes undrafted and then hits his first big week in week 2. How many owners are thinking, "it's only week 2 and I don't trust this guy (or was burned by Moreno in the past) - not taking a chance with Ball on the team" ??? It's a valid line of reason given Moreno's history.

Or maybe you just don't win the waiver lotto to grab him. Or Stacey, or Powell, or Rainey, or Ellington. Yes, some guys step up, but it may take a week for them to gel as the starter.

The owners that win the waiver wire look like Mensa candidates.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I hear ya, but I'm even talking about the mid round guys like the rookies, the Vereens and such... but here's my point, if you draft elite WR early, there really is no need for back ups (other than the bye week slots, and barring injury), because if you need a one-week sudden one week sub, waivers are full of WR one-week wonders...and it's fun to choose from that. This allows you to stack your team with RB depth...

If you draft "elite" RB early, you still need to back them up, at the same time you're scrounging between highly inconsistent options at WR, like the Hiltons, Boldins and Torrey Smiths.

Obviously, the argument is there the other way, but I know how I'm setting up my draft boards next year.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

I hear ya, but I'm even talking about the mid round guys like the rookies, the Vereens and such... but here's my point, if you draft elite WR early, there really is no need for back ups (other than the bye week slots, and barring injury), because if you need a one-week sudden one week sub, waivers are full of WR one-week wonders...and it's fun to choose from that. This allows you to stack your team with RB depth...

If you draft "elite" RB early, you still need to back them up, at the same time you're scrounging between highly inconsistent options at WR, like the Hiltons, Boldins and Torrey Smiths.

Obviously, the argument is there the other way, but I know how I'm setting up my draft boards next year.

Like TKO said in another thread, I have been chasing points all year long in my money league at WR#3.......my best 2 teams right now I either hit RB#1 and RB#2 (Charles and Lacy) or drafted at the back end and went Megatron/Marshall and was able to nab Gore and Murray in the 3rd/4th.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I'm also going to jump on board with Sam and agree with what TKO is spreading.

My best teams this year, I either drafted stud WRs early, or traded for them, and filled my bench with RBs. In one league, I traded CJ?K and Vjax for Megatron (already had Marshall from my draft) then stockpiled my bench with waiver claims:
K Allen and H Douglas at WR
Stacy (right away after he was named the starter)
Vereen (got lucky someone dropped him, but I had to drop Andre Brown to get him)
Donald Brown (figured why not after TRich looked so miserable in a colts uni)

Traded TY Hilton for LeVeon Bell, then, surprisingly got offered Lynch/Cutler for Romo/Bernard when both Rodgers and Cutler were injured. Took the deal for Lynch, of course, and got lucky with McCown filling in so nicely for Jay the past couple weeks. Now I have Cutler vs what should be 2 easy opponents for my championship run.

Although, I will also say that 2 of my 3 playoff teams were anchored by stud RBs that panned out - McCoy & Charles. So that still plays a big part in having a solid team, imo.

 

[averagejoe]

I agree, that TKO brings up a valid reason, which ultimately has the support of Sam and Smo. But isn't his scenario a product of poor RB play this season? Or does this mean that in 2014 drafts, we will see a first-round run on WR?

 

[SmokingMonkey]

or a combo of poor RB play + better WR play?

Probably see RBs sink a little on draft boards and WRs bump up a little.
Seems like there should be some nice juicy values to be had at RB if that is the case.

My biggest blunder in rds 1 or 2 of ALL of my money leagues......Tie between Alf Morris as the 10th overall pick in a 10tm league and Ray Rice as the 8th overall pick in a 12tm league. Not regretting Calvin as the 11th pick behind Morris or Forte as the 17th overall pick behind Rice though!

 

[leftypower]

From all the varied input it only reinforces the notion that any way you draft a team can payoff IF they avoid injury and the supporting cast (OL for RB/QB, QB for WR) does the same. Obviously there are guys that are more highly prone to very good performances but have the injury bug (Murray, DMC) so you have to draft their backups or a couple of high upside mid-level RB's to get you though their missed time.
As for the no backup needed for WR's, I've subscribed to that theory as well - but the guy who drafted Julio, Cobb, White or Wayne early may find a flaw in that thinking. Not saying you could have done anything to prevent it. Yet I still believe you have a better chance at hitting on a every week waiver-wire WR than a weekly starting caliber RB.
In the end, there is an element of luck involved in fantasy - that is simply avoiding injury to your studs - or being next up on the wire when needed.

 

[Bandit]

I'll throw my 2 cents in here. I honestly think it doesn't matter which position kills you the most, as long as you don't lose like 3 guys to injury, they can be replaced. If you are active on the waiver wire, you will find adequate enough replacements. I am a firm believer that injuries do not hurt you nearly as bad as guys that just consistently underperform. At least if they are injured you replace them with somebody else, but when you draft guys like Doug Martin, C.J. Spiller, Steven Jackson, and Trent Richardson in the first round, it's hard to bench them when they underperform because they were your first round draft pick. I think fantasy players hold on to where they drafted a player entirely too long into a season. The guy is what he is that week, not what his projections going into the season were or what he did last year.


In the teams I didn't make the playoffs in, the common theme is a bad first round pick. In two of them it was Steven Jackson, in another one it was C.J. Spiller, and in the fourth it was Doug Martin, so I guess I have to say running back caused the demise of my non-playoff teams this year.

 

[TKOSpikes]

I think fantasy players hold on to where they drafted a player entirely too long into a season. The guy is what he is that week, not what his projections going into the season were or what he did last year.

funny how "The Family" humbles you... you two have made excellent points.

 

[Barilko]

Well said everyone

im still a firm believer in having as many Rb as possible...

even though the failure of too many stud Rb should have carried the biggest negative impact on various teams this year.I think that the fact that so many did fail --
it thus managed to lesson the impact by spreading the damage to most fantasy teams
and with that said

i believe drafting Eli-RG3-Luck- late--and building a strong team was the big blow

 

[Barilko]

Great thread Joe

 

[molsaniceman]

A lot has to do with the league format and is it PPR I think RB can still kill u more than WR cause there are more WR available Now if its 3 WRs format it makes a difference

Going by my 1 league it was Peyton and Brees at the top and the next 10 are all real close but u only use 1 QB so dont need much after the top 12

As for RBs there is a 80 point diff between charles and lacy 10th best

WRs there is 50 point diff between megatron and A Johnson 10th best

People are always fighting for RBs cause they get hurt so much

 

[Yellow Fuzzies]

But alas the one player who killed me when it counted most was Stafford in the snow.

There are certain leagues that you just want to do better in than others. In that league for me I didn't have a chance to sub out Stafford and I lost in first round with the best team that I accumulated this year. The smack talk has already begun and will continue for some time.

In general though, like many others, RB was my downfall. I went all in in first 2-3 rounds on RB and unfortunately I thought highly of TRich and even Ridley for late round 2 and round 3. You see how that worked out.