2012 Top Prospects

[mistgl]

Not sure how I missed all the activity on this thread yesterday, but...

So Hembree, in a Matter of days, goes from "out 18 mo w/ TJ", to "career over", to "out a max of 2 weeks, no big deal".


And they call us the lunatic fringe? WTF?

You missed Mejia's great game, too!

 

[gp956]

Fresno Twitter:

FresnoForecastCSN ‏@FresnoForecast
For those asking, Peguero has a left side strain & Gillaspie has a fractured big toe.

 

[mistgl]

ToJo had a good Futures AS game!

1 for 1, 2B, and a BB. The double was crushed off the RF wall, and he caught Dylan Bundy, that probably got him some extra exposure. I only watched the Ab's, but DrB said he had a solid block that a runner from 2B tried to steal on and he gunned them down at 3B.

 

[SFGRTB]

ToJo had a good Futures AS game!

1 for 1, 2B, and a BB. The double was crushed off the RF wall, and he caught Dylan Bundy, that probably got him some extra exposure. I only watched the Ab's, but DrB said he had a solid block that a runner from 2B tried to steal on and he gunned them down at 3B.

Damn I forgot to watch it! Wanted to see him live.

 

[tzill]

Damn I forgot to watch it! Wanted to see him live.

Meh, he's no Susac....

 

[calsnowskier]

Meh, he's no Susac....

Not trying to start anything, but...

Did you happen to catch DrB's top 5 position prospects yesterday?

1) Joseph
2) Brown
3) Cabrera
4) Panik
5) Oropesa

 

[tzill]

Not trying to start anything, but...

Did you happen to catch DrB's top 5 position prospects yesterday?

1) Joseph
2) Brown
3) Cabrera
4) Panik
5) Oropesa

He will pay for that list. Oh, yes.

He will pay.

 

[mistgl]

Not trying to start anything, but...

Did you happen to catch DrB's top 5 position prospects yesterday?

1) Joseph
2) Brown
3) Cabrera
4) Panik
5) Oropesa

Hard to argue with that. Joseph is 3+ years away, but he really could be monster. Flip side, he could really bust hard, too. He has a sky scraper high ceiling, and I think that deserves the top nod.

Brown might have a slight knock against him for his slow start, but I like it that he fell and got right back up on the horse. AA is a big jump, and he showed the necessary patience and willingness to learn from the org to succeed at that level. With his power looking more and more like a SJ mirage, he gets the slot below ToJo. But I could see ranking him numero uno based on him being much closer to the Bigs. Last night 3 for 5. BA= .283

Cabrera is the DR kid we signed, right? DrB is REALLY high on him, but after the failure that is RafRod, I'm skeptical of prematurely pimping Latin diaper dandees too soon. Personally, he wouldn't be in my top 5

Panik at 4 seems fair. He lit up the Sally league, but his stint in SJ as been just slightly above average. One would have liked to see someone with his hit tool produce better in a hitter friendly environment. Maybe he is more a Jamey Carroll, but that kind of utility has value, and we didn't break any banks to sign him. He has to put up all of 1 WAR in his career to be worth 5X what we paid him to sign.

Oropesa kind of gets the 5 nod by default with how thin any position talent is in our system. He's having a decent year, better than I thought for someone who supposedly had a planet sized hole in his swing. Getting on base and hitting jacks. He profiled as an Dunn type guy who could potentially put up huge HR totals, but if it wasn't a HR it wasn't a hit. It's nice to see he can supplement his lack of contact and K's with walks.

Not to earn the ire of Tzill, but Susac has just kind of had a meh year. Nice to see the OBP and handful of jacks, but that BA is :sick:

 

[SFGRTB]

Hard to argue with that. Joseph is 3+ years away, but he really could be monster. Flip side, he could really bust hard, too. He has a sky scraper high ceiling, and I think that deserves the top nod.

Brown might have a slight knock against him for his slow start, but I like it that he fell and got right back up on the horse. AA is a big jump, and he showed the necessary patience and willingness to learn from the org to succeed at that level. With his power looking more and more like a SJ mirage, he gets the slot below ToJo. But I could see ranking him numero uno based on him being much closer to the Bigs. Last night 3 for 5. BA= .283

Cabrera is the DR kid we signed, right? DrB is REALLY high on him, but after the failure that is RafRod, I'm skeptical of prematurely pimping Latin diaper dandees too soon. Personally, he wouldn't be in my top 5

Panik at 4 seems fair. He lit up the Sally league, but his stint in SJ as been just slightly above average. One would have liked to see someone with his hit tool produce better in a hitter friendly environment. Maybe he is more a Jamey Carroll, but that kind of utility has value, and we didn't break any banks to sign him. He has to put up all of 1 WAR in his career to be worth 5X what we paid him to sign.

Oropesa kind of gets the 5 nod by default with how thin any position talent is in our system. He's having a decent year, better than I thought for someone who supposedly had a planet sized hole in his swing. Getting on base and hitting jacks. He profiled as an Dunn type guy who could potentially put up huge HR totals, but if it wasn't a HR it wasn't a hit. It's nice to see he can supplement his lack of contact and K's with walks.

Not to earn the ire of Tzill, but Susac has just kind of had a meh year. Nice to see the OBP and handful of jacks, but that BA is :sick:

Ya the Giants 2 big recent signings on the hitting side from our guys down south haven't panned out as we planned (AnVill is hitting surprisingly well for being away for so long though, RafRod looks lost) so I would be skeptical to rank him high.

Most of the numbers from the prospects just aren't there this year, but guys are turning it around. I'd say thats a fair list, outside of Cabrera.

 

[calsnowskier]

WAY too early to write RafRod off. Kid is only 20 YO. Give him AT LEAST 2 more years before you break out the pitchforks.

AnVill is hitting great, sure, but it is against 17/18 YOs. Let's see what he does next year in a push year (start in SJ with aggressive promotions throughout the year).

The Latin scouts have produced Panda and C3PO in the last few years, with Adrianza and Peguero knocking on the door (not to mention Galindo, Mejia and RafRod, as well as Henry Sosa). Not so bad, if you ask me...

HOWEVER...

I have no prob keeping Javier and Cabrera off any top list for the next couple years...

 

[mistgl]

WAY too early to write RafRod off. Kid is only 20 YO. Give him AT LEAST 2 more years before you break out the pitchforks.

AnVill is hitting great, sure, but it is against 17/18 YOs. Let's see what he does next year in a push year (start in SJ with aggressive promotions throughout the year).

The Latin scouts have produced Panda and C3PO in the last few years, with Adrianza and Peguero knocking on the door (not to mention Galindo, Mejia and RafRod, as well as Henry Sosa). Not so bad, if you ask me...

HOWEVER...

I have no prob keeping Javier and Cabrera off any top list for the next couple years...

Too true. They really are at least half a decade away, and that's if they hop on the Jesus Montero train and get to the Bigs fast.

Do they get the Anvil treatment and get brought into the ARZ RK league at 16?

 

[calsnowskier]

Too true. They really are at least half a decade away, and that's if they hop on the Jesus Montero train and get to the Bigs fast.

Do they get the Anvil treatment and get brought into the ARZ RK league at 16?

I really do not understand the life-cycle of the Latin prospects (not that I am confused by it, but rather I am ignorant of it), so I will not even venture a guess as to how they will be handled.

 

[SFGRTB]

WAY too early to write RafRod off. Kid is only 20 YO. Give him AT LEAST 2 more years before you break out the pitchforks.

AnVill is hitting great, sure, but it is against 17/18 YOs. Let's see what he does next year in a push year (start in SJ with aggressive promotions throughout the year).

The Latin scouts have produced Panda and C3PO in the last few years, with Adrianza and Peguero knocking on the door (not to mention Galindo, Mejia and RafRod, as well as Henry Sosa). Not so bad, if you ask me...

HOWEVER...

I have no prob keeping Javier and Cabrera off any top list for the next couple years...

I just meant the bats. Peguero slipped my mind but I was referring to the big 2 of AnVill/RafRod mainly. I'm not writing either off, just saying those prospects shouldn't be ranked so highly without any professional experience IMO, because anything can happen in their development (as RafRod/AnVill etc have shown the last couple years). Same thing with high schoolers, always skeptical of ranking them high.

 

[calsnowskier]

I just meant the bats. Peguero slipped my mind but I was referring to the big 2 of AnVill/RafRod mainly. I'm not writing either off, just saying those prospects shouldn't be ranked so highly without any professional experience IMO, because anything can happen in their development (as RafRod/AnVill etc have shown the last couple years). Same thing with high schoolers, always skeptical of ranking them high.

Were you hesitant on Crick? Bum? Joseph? Wheeler? Cain?

 

[SFGRTB]

Were you hesitant on Crick? Bum? Joseph? Wheeler? Cain?

I have high hopes for all of them, but I'm hesitant to rank them in a top-5 prospect list. Now, it also depends on the strength of the system. I'm not going rank a Seth Rosin type over a MadBum type because Rosin pitched in college and Bum came out of H.S., but say Tim Alderson pitched in College instead of coming out of H.S., I would have ranked him ahead of Bum (if you follow my logic).

 

[calsnowskier]

I have high hopes for all of them, but I'm hesitant to rank them in a top-5 prospect list. Now, it also depends on the strength of the system. I'm not going rank a Seth Rosin type over a MadBum type because Rosin pitched in college and Bum came out of H.S., but say Tim Alderson pitched in College instead of coming out of H.S., I would have ranked him ahead of Bum (if you follow my logic).

I see your logic. I am not arguing, just trying to challenge so I understand (and maybe lead to you understanding your own stance as well )

Personally, I rate prospects on a number of qualifiers...

1) scouting reports
2) opinions on those I trust and understand where their bias' are
3) draft position
4) professional results

For guys that I have never seen or heard anything about, I tend to like kids in this order...

1) HS - Typically, only true prospects go directly from HS to pro
2) College - More refined, but that also leads to older, and potentially they went to college because they couldn't go pro out of HS
3) Latin - WAY too many questions (competition level; age issues; legal issues)

Of course, each prospect is his own story, and I try to weigh each one in relation to their own story. For example, I was WAY high on Joseph the day he was drafted, even though he was only a second rounder. I saw a video of him in the cage and the kid had an amazingly fast bat. Then, I heard a lot of scouts confirming what I saw, and they all seemed to like him. He has been pretty high on my radar ever since. In comparison, Wendell Fairly was never very high on my list even though he was a first rounder. Everything I heard about him was that he was a reach and was WAY WAY WAY raw. His pro success has confirmed my initial gut on him. Charlie Jones was a 6th rounder, but he signed almost immediately and had quick success. Most scouts have said he is also WAY WAY WAY raw, but I am high on him because he seems to have a good attitude (even though he has struggled this year).

 

[mistgl]

I have high hopes for all of them, but I'm hesitant to rank them in a top-5 prospect list. Now, it also depends on the strength of the system. I'm not going rank a Seth Rosin type over a MadBum type because Rosin pitched in college and Bum came out of H.S., but say Tim Alderson pitched in College instead of coming out of H.S., I would have ranked him ahead of Bum (if you follow my logic).

I have no problem rating prep kids once they get a year of pro ball under their belt (against guys 2 years older than them at that).

I'd easily rank our pitching as

1. Stratton - Just because he's 'closer' than the other two guys

2. Crick - argument can be made for numero uno, but he's a project and I don't see a Bumgarner like meteoric rise to the majors at 20.

3. Blackburn - The kid has been an absolute STEAL.

4. Mejia - has the same Ace upside from the left side as Bum, but he's also struggled more than Crick and Black at the same level.

5. Hembree - Even though he's hurt and been knocked around a bit, the dude played well in ST and last year. And only Cricks fastball can be mentioned in the same sentence.

After that it's a 6,7,8,9 of Bochy, Heston, Osich and Kickham in no particular order. Maybe it's dumb to lump the RP guys with the SP, but Bochy and Hembree deserve Rep for what they've done over the last two seasons.

I'll reserve my judgment on Agosta and Johnson till after the pro debut. I give Stratton major props for pitching in one of the toughest college baseball conferences in the country. Agosta and Johnson pitched in BFE confrences with inferior talent.

 

[calsnowskier]

You single out Johnson from the three-headed reliever-monster of Okert/Blach/Johnson...

Any particular reason?

You also do not agree with Doc on Rosin. Again, any particular reason? (I tend to agree that Doc has him too high, BTW)

 

[SFGRTB]

I see your logic. I am not arguing, just trying to challenge so I understand (and maybe lead to you understanding your own stance as well )

Personally, I rate prospects on a number of qualifiers...

1) scouting reports
2) opinions on those I trust and understand where their bias' are
3) draft position
4) professional results

For guys that I have never seen or heard anything about, I tend to like kids in this order...

1) HS - Typically, only true prospects go directly from HS to pro
2) College - More refined, but that also leads to older, and potentially they went to college because they couldn't go pro out of HS
3) Latin - WAY too many questions (competition level; age issues; legal issues)

Of course, each prospect is his own story, and I try to weigh each one in relation to their own story. For example, I was WAY high on Joseph the day he was drafted, even though he was only a second rounder. I saw a video of him in the cage and the kid had an amazingly fast bat. Then, I heard a lot of scouts confirming what I saw, and they all seemed to like him. He has been pretty high on my radar ever since. In comparison, Wendell Fairly was never very high on my list even though he was a first rounder. Everything I heard about him was that he was a reach and was WAY WAY WAY raw. His pro success has confirmed my initial gut on him. Charlie Jones was a 6th rounder, but he signed almost immediately and had quick success. Most scouts have said he is also WAY WAY WAY raw, but I am high on him because he seems to have a good attitude (even though he has struggled this year).

Based off your list, I go:

1) Scouting reports
2) Results
3) opinions
4) draft position

and then as a result:

1) College
2) H.S.

3) Latin


I understand your point about a high-schooler jumping straight to the pros as having a better chance at having great careers, or else they would invest their time in going to college for 3 years. It's like the NBA, guys don't stay for 4 years unless they really need to, most leave after 1. I'd say more high-schoolers endup being stars, but more college players make the bigs. I'm always pulling more for the high-schoolers and I tend too keep them higher on my watch list, a lot higher, compared to collegiate players. But most collegiate players get the nod before high-schoolers because they have the results, until they show me something.

Coming out of their respective drafts, ToJo made my top-10, in the lower end, because he was a catcher who brought the big stick. Fairley was in the teens because I saw nothing more than a 4th OF, but a shot at the bigs. Jones was on the fringe of the top-10 because he's a big kid with 5 tools and a big heart, but I had not seen much in the way of results. I try not to let positioning have too much effect on my rankings, but in a guy like Gary Brown, he ranks very high in all of my categories therefore he was an easy choice for my number 2 ranking (behind Belt whom ranked high in most rankings too).

 

[MarcoPolo]

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