2012 FA OF comparison

[tzill]

Let's get this Hot Stove League rolling...


Name (Age Pos Played 2011 3 year WAR avg 3 year OPS+ avg 3 yr TZ avg)

Carlos Beltran 34 RF 3.6 135.3 +5.3 runs
Coco Crisp 31 CF 2.0 98.0 +1.7 runs
Mike Cuddyer 32 RF/1B/2B 1.7 117.3 -4.9 runs
Dave DeJesus 31 RF 2.3 109.0 +8.0 runs

Best guess contracts:

Beltran 3 years/ $36MM
Crisp 2 years/ $12MM
Cuddyer 3 years/$27MM
DeJesus 1 year/$7MM

Thoughts?

 

[Heathbar012]

Let's get this Hot Stove League rolling...


Name (Age Pos Played 2011 3 year WAR avg 3 year OPS+ avg 3 yr TZ avg)

Carlos Beltran 34 RF 3.6 135.3 +5.3 runs
Coco Crisp 31 CF 2.0 98.0 +1.7 runs
Mike Cuddyer 32 RF/1B/2B 1.7 117.3 -4.9 runs
Dave DeJesus 31 RF 2.3 109.0 +8.0 runs

Best guess contracts:

Beltran 3 years/ $36MM
Crisp 2 years/ $12MM
Cuddyer 3 years/$27MM
DeJesus 1 year/$7MM

Thoughts?

Holy DeJesus! What a value!

 

[msgkings322]

Let's get this Hot Stove League rolling...


Name (Age Pos Played 2011 3 year WAR avg 3 year OPS+ avg 3 yr TZ avg)

Carlos Beltran 34 RF 3.6 135.3 +5.3 runs
Coco Crisp 31 CF 2.0 98.0 +1.7 runs
Mike Cuddyer 32 RF/1B/2B 1.7 117.3 -4.9 runs
Dave DeJesus 31 RF 2.3 109.0 +8.0 runs

Best guess contracts:

Beltran 3 years/ $36MM
Crisp 2 years/ $12MM
Cuddyer 3 years/$27MM
DeJesus 1 year/$7MM

Thoughts?

Crisp is the only one that can play center, correct? Because if so, and we sign another guy, are we expected Torres to play there again? Nate?

Can DeJesus play center? He played there 8 games this year, 19 last, and 527 for his career, which is what he was exclusively early on...maybe he's lost a step now? If he can play adequate CF defense I think you have to take him over Crisp, don't you?

 

[Kendal]

Isn't DeJesus pretty much Nate Schierholtz but older and more expensive?

 

[Heathbar012]

Crisp is the only one that can play center, correct? Because if so, and we sign another guy, are we expected Torres to play there again? Nate?

Can DeJesus play center? He played there 8 games this year, 19 last, and 527 for his career, which is what he was exclusively early on...maybe he's lost a step now? If he can play adequate CF defense I think you have to take him over Crisp, don't you?

I like the idea of Nate in Center and DeJesus in right. Having a righty in center and a lefty in right, both with better than average range, goes a long way toward turning triples and doubles into outs at The Phone Booth. Belt has certainly had his mishaps in left, but with more reps out there and Nate next to him to hide some deficiencies, I think he'll have a much improved year, defensively.

I would be alright with Torres or Ross back as the 4th OF at a discount. Otherwise, put me in the rebound year for DeJesus camp. The Twins' front office and fans love Cuddyer, so I think they would force any team to overpay for him. Beltran is too pricey based on the current payroll budget, and Crisp doesn't bring enough OBP and D to warrant the kind of money that he will demand.

What's next? Short stop. Who ya got, tzill?

 

[Heathbar012]

Isn't DeJesus pretty much Nate Schierholtz but older and more expensive?

To a certain extent, yes. Slightly less arm, slightly more consistent getting on base. Less power. More expensive, but cheap compared to every FA OF on the market, due to the down-year this year (Sabes fave).

 

[tzill]

I like the idea of Nate in Center and DeJesus in right. Having a righty in center and a lefty in right, both with better than average range, goes a long way toward turning triples and doubles into outs at The Phone Booth. Belt has certainly had his mishaps in left, but with more reps out there and Nate next to him to hide some deficiencies, I think he'll have a much improved year, defensively.

I would be alright with Torres or Ross back as the 4th OF at a discount. Otherwise, put me in the rebound year for DeJesus camp. The Twins' front office and fans love Cuddyer, so I think they would force any team to overpay for him. Beltran is too pricey based on the current payroll budget, and Crisp doesn't bring enough OBP and D to warrant the kind of money that he will demand.

What's next? Short stop. Who ya got, tzill?

I don't think we'll be in on Reyes or Rollins, so I don't see a FA upgrade over Stamos.

 

[Heathbar012]

I don't think we'll be in on Reyes or Rollins, so I don't see a FA upgrade over Stamos.

Sounds about right, but there will be a little bit of money remaining to upgrade somewhere if Sabes grabs DeJesus at $7 mil. Will he focus on back-ups at C or 2B/3B (utility guy not named Keppinger or DeRosa)? Maybe stay in the OF? Very little room for upgrades in the rotation or bullpen, depending on who comes back.

 

[tzill]

Sounds about right, but there will be a little bit of money remaining to upgrade somewhere if Sabes grabs DeJesus at $7 mil. Will he focus on back-ups at C or 2B/3B (utility guy not named Keppinger or DeRosa)? Maybe stay in the OF? Very little room for upgrades in the rotation or bullpen, depending on who comes back.

I think we'll make a decent run at Beltran. Cuddyer will probably resign with the Twinks. Between DeJesus and Crisp, Coco makes the most sense as he can play CF and lead off. If we sign Crisp to 2/12 or so, I'd expect:

CF Crisp
2b Freddy
C Posey
3b Panda
1b Huff
RF Nate
LF Belt
SS Stamos

Bench: Stewart, Pill, Gillaspie, Fonty, Torres
SP: Tim, Cain, Bum, Song, Chez
RP: Zito, Beard, Affeldt, RamRam, Casilla, Romo, Runz

Gone: Beltran, Ross, PTB, Kepp, DeRo, Cabrera, Eli, Mota, Lopez
Minors: Adrianza, Burriss, Ford, Neal, Peggy, Chez3, Edlefsen, Hinshaw, Kamp

That's my best guess on September 29. We'll see how it plays out.

 

[Kendal]

I think we'll make a decent run at Beltran. Cuddyer will probably resign with the Twinks. Between DeJesus and Crisp, Coco makes the most sense as he can play CF and lead off. If we sign Crisp to 2/12 or so, I'd expect:

CF Crisp
2b Freddy
C Posey
3b Panda
1b Huff
RF Nate
LF Belt
SS Stamos

Bench: Stewart, Pill, Gillaspie, Fonty, Torres
SP: Tim, Cain, Bum, Song, Chez
RP: Zito, Beard, Affeldt, RamRam, Casilla, Romo, Runz

Gone: Beltran, Ross, PTB, Kepp, DeRo, Cabrera, Eli, Mota, Lopez
Minors: Adrianza, Burriss, Ford, Neal, Peggy, Chez3, Edlefsen, Hinshaw, Kamp

That's my best guess on September 29. We'll see how it plays out.

Pretty solid guess in my opinion. Though we traded Neal, and Hinshaw blows. Personally I'd rather have Lopez than Affeldt or Runzler. I could also see the Giants dumping Fontenot for a right handed bat.

 

[tzill]

Pretty solid guess in my opinion. Though we traded Neal, and Hinshaw blows. Personally I'd rather have Lopez than Affeldt or Runzler. I could also see the Giants dumping Fontenot for a right handed bat.

My bad...we DID trade Neal in the Cabrera acquisition. I'm trying to forget about that.

 

[tzill]

If we do sign Beltran, and also get Crisp, Torres would be the one to go:

CF Crisp
2B Freddy
C Posey
LF Beltran
3B Panda
RF Nate
1B Belt/Huff
SS Stamos

Wouldn't THAT be nice?

That team wins 95+ games.

 

[mistgl]

I think we'll make a decent run at Beltran. Cuddyer will probably resign with the Twinks. Between DeJesus and Crisp, Coco makes the most sense as he can play CF and lead off. If we sign Crisp to 2/12 or so, I'd expect:

CF Crisp
2b Freddy
C Posey
3b Panda
1b Huff
RF Nate
LF Belt
SS Stamos

Bench: Stewart, Pill, Gillaspie, Fonty, Torres
SP: Tim, Cain, Bum, Song, Chez
RP: Zito, Beard, Affeldt, RamRam, Casilla, Romo, Runz

Gone: Beltran, Ross, PTB, Kepp, DeRo, Cabrera, Eli, Mota, Lopez
Minors: Adrianza, Burriss, Ford, Neal, Peggy, Chez3, Edlefsen, Hinshaw, Kamp

That's my best guess on September 29. We'll see how it plays out.

Crisp career OBP when batting lead-off is .298

He's really not that good.

Not to mention that his arm sucks dick.

 

[BeerMe]

Crisp career OBP when batting lead-off is .298

He's really not that good.

Not to mention that his arm sucks dick.[/QUOTE]

I met a girl once whos arm sucked dick. It didn't swallow but was still pretty good.

 

[CameronFrye]

tzill - I love reading your posts and I can honestly admit that because of your passion for the stats, I listen to your ideas more than most others'.

But I have one question for you: as a guy who loves the stats, why do you love Nate Schierholtz so much? The guy ended this season with a woeful .756 OPS. Last year it was even worse at .676. The year before it was .702.

By comparison, Cody Ross (a player everyone seems to want to show the door) had a .730 OPS, which is less than Nate's but is historically higher.

Everyone around here seems to be ready to pencil Nate in every day and give him 550 ABs in right field. Yet no one seems to want to look at his stats.

Admittedly I am not a stat guy so I am asking this wondering what I am missing with Nate.

 

[calsnowskier]

tzill - I love reading your posts and I can honestly admit that because of your passion for the stats, I listen to your ideas more than most others'.

But I have one question for you: as a guy who loves the stats, why do you love Nate Schierholtz so much? The guy ended this season with a woeful .756 OPS. Last year it was even worse at .676. The year before it was .702.

By comparison, Cody Ross (a player everyone seems to want to show the door) had a .730 OPS, which is less than Nate's but is historically higher.

Everyone around here seems to be ready to pencil Nate in every day and give him 550 ABs in right field. Yet no one seems to want to look at his stats.

Admittedly I am not a stat guy so I am asking this wondering what I am missing with Nate.

You didn't ask me, but let me give MY reasons...

1) $$$ - Ross made 6.3M in '11 and Nate made 0.4M.

2) Age - Ross was 30; Nate was 27

3) Defense - Ross is versatile, and offers + D in Left and average D in center and Right. Nate offers +++ D in Right and average D in Left.

4) Home Grown. Most of us here tend to give the tie to to the home grown talent. Not that this is a tie (IMHO), but it does give Nate that extra shove.

 

[CameronFrye]

You didn't ask me, but let me give MY reasons...

1) $$$ - Ross made 6.3M in '11 and Nate made 0.4M.

2) Age - Ross was 30; Nate was 27

3) Defense - Ross is versatile, and offers + D in Left and average D in center and Right. Nate offers +++ D in Right and average D in Left.

4) Home Grown. Most of us here tend to give the tie to to the home grown talent. Not that this is a tie (IMHO), but it does give Nate that extra shove.

cal - Those are solid reasons for preferring Nate to Cody Ross. But none of them are legit reasons why a good number of people on this board and in the Giants fandom in general are wanting Nate to be given a full-time shot at the RF gig.

The guy has been given over 1,000 at-bats in the bigs and has IMO proven that he is a very solid and capable fourth OF and pinch-hitter. But he has yet to show me that he is deserving of a full-time gig in the Giants' OF.

 

[tzill]

cal - Those are solid reasons for preferring Nate to Cody Ross. But none of them are legit reasons why a good number of people on this board and in the Giants fandom in general are wanting Nate to be given a full-time shot at the RF gig.

The guy has been given over 1,000 at-bats in the bigs and has IMO proven that he is a very solid and capable fourth OF and pinch-hitter. But he has yet to show me that he is deserving of a full-time gig in the Giants' OF.

I don't necessarily disagree, Cam. I'm not a big proponent of Nate -- you'll remember the argument I got into with his brother on the Disney board. My projections are based on what the Giants FO thinks...and it seems they want to give Nate the full shot in RF next year.

I think for the $ it's a gamble worth taking.

 

[calsnowskier]

cal - Those are solid reasons for preferring Nate to Cody Ross. But none of them are legit reasons why a good number of people on this board and in the Giants fandom in general are wanting Nate to be given a full-time shot at the RF gig.

The guy has been given over 1,000 at-bats in the bigs and has IMO proven that he is a very solid and capable fourth OF and pinch-hitter. But he has yet to show me that he is deserving of a full-time gig in the Giants' OF.

Nate has not been given consistent ABs, except for a time this season. When he was playing consistently this year, he actually carried the team. Even when he is not hitting well, he gives GG D and offers a 5 arm.

He shows the flashes that make me think he has a ceiling as a low-end, occational all-star, and a floor of a top flight 4th OF.

I like him as a nice 3rd OF. With the roster as it sits now (sans Beltran), I see him as or best option anywhere. Torres needs to prove himself again, Belt I prefer at 1B, Ross we have already discussed.

That means that we will need to acquire THREE new OFers to get Nate out of the lineup. Who do YOU propose we get (who we can afford) that makes that the right move?

 

[CameronFrye]

I don't necessarily disagree, Cam. I'm not a big proponent of Nate -- you'll remember the argument I got into with his brother on the Disney board. My projections are based on what the Giants FO thinks...and it seems they want to give Nate the full shot in RF next year.

I think for the $ it's a gamble worth taking.

That makes sense. I guess I just read too much into things when reading these boards. When I would read about Beltran and some here were saying that they'd rather have Nate play right, I guess I took it to mean they thought Nate could pull off a season he wasn't capable of. But reading your response, I think I understand that what they meant was that for the price, Nate would be a much better bargain in right field - even if his expected outcome is a .750 OPS.