MLB Daily Thread: 05-05-16: The Red Hot Cubbies

[rmilia1]

I thought Latos could be a good pickup for someone, but he's striking out 4.6 batters per 9 IP so far. The league average strikeout rate is 8.1. Latos isn't a groundball pitcher.

Flyball pitchers in Chicago tend to pitch OK in April and May. After that?? Yeah not so much. Once the weather warms up Latos is going to be in trouble

 

[Erie Warrior]

Cubs over under 105 wins? What do you guys think?

I would say under. They are strong, but 105 wins is a ton.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

I thought Latos could be a good pickup for someone, but he's striking out 4.6 batters per 9 IP so far. The league average strikeout rate is 8.1. Latos isn't a groundball pitcher.

if you believe in the sabametric stuff, his numbers, espcially that BABIP stat, indicate he has been very very lucky...And pretty much every time, that luck runs out

A lot of contact that happens to be getting hit in the right spots for Latos

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Cubs over under 105 wins? What do you guys think?

Id go under only because they may run away with that division, and you could see a lot of rest for guys in September...Especially Arrietta, who showed last postseason how worn down he was.....

 

[rmilia1]

Id go under only because they may run away with that division, and you could see a lot of rest for guys in September...Especially Arrietta, who showed last postseason how worn down he was.....

I may try and buy another week. 7 coming up vs NATS and PIRATES. If Cubs win 5+ of them I may take the bet. He's saying under which I agree with but at 3-1 it's going to be close enough to make it worthwhile imo. If they're sitting at 25-8 they'd only need to go 80-49 the rest of the way which is tough but not crazy.

 

[Inquisitor95]

Why all this talk about the Cubs when the Astros won consecutive games for the first time this season?

 

[navamind]

I wouldn't expect the Cubs to continue to score 6+ runs per game. Though I also wouldn't expect Heyward and Soler to continue to hit as poorly as they have been.

That rotation is very underrated though. Cubs starters had the most WAR in 2015, and that was before they added Lackey. Arrieta probably won't finish with a sub-2 ERA again, but he's certainly established himself as a top 5 pitcher. Hendricks and Hammel are damn good no. 4/5 starters to have in your rotation, and I think Hendricks can be more than that.

 

[navamind]

Also, not only are the Cubs 20-6, but they've actually underachieved their pythag W-L by 2 games (22-4).

 

[rmilia1]

I wouldn't expect the Cubs to continue to score 6+ runs per game. Though I also wouldn't expect Heyward and Soler to continue to hit as poorly as they have been.

That rotation is very underrated though. Cubs starters had the most WAR in 2015, and that was before they added Lackey. Arrieta probably won't finish with a sub-2 ERA again, but he's certainly established himself as a top 5 pitcher. Hendricks and Hammel are damn good no. 4/5 starters to have in your rotation, and I think Hendricks can be more than that.

I actually thought this team may break the all time record for runs before the season. It's rare to see a team where 1-8 can all hurt you and the Cubs are a great baserunning team ( no one ever talks about that ). Scoring at a high rate now and Wrigley is a pitchers park in April and May. Once it warms up I actually think they'll score more. Of course the staff, while very good, is not going to continue with 3 guys with sub 2 ERA

 

[apachef4]

I actually thought this team may break the all time record for runs before the season. It's rare to see a team where 1-8 can all hurt you and the Cubs are a great baserunning team ( no one ever talks about that ). Scoring at a high rate now and Wrigley is a pitchers park in April and May. Once it warms up I actually think they'll score more. Of course the staff, while very good, is not going to continue with 3 guys with sub 2 ERA

Have the new scoreboards had any effect on the wind situation at Wrigley? I am curious if they block the wind off the lake, but I haven't heard anything about it.

 

[navamind]

The 2003 Red Sox batted .289/.360/.491 with a team OPS+ of 118. And they weren't scoring over 6 runs per game (a mere 5.9). And that was in a drastically higher run scoring environment.

Going by Bill James' runs created formula, the Cubs should be scoring around 5.2 runs per game. Which seems a lot more reasonable. Either way, it's one of the best offenses in MLB. 5.2 R/G in the NL is still pretty damn impressive IMO.

 

[rmilia1]

Have the new scoreboards had any effect on the wind situation at Wrigley? I am curious if they block the wind off the lake, but I haven't heard anything about it.

Hasn't appeared to. Kind of surprising to me. Haven't delved into it so could be wrong.

 

[moxie]

Fuck Mat Latos.

 

[rmilia1]

The 2003 Red Sox batted .289/.360/.491 with a team OPS+ of 118. And they weren't scoring over 6 runs per game (a mere 5.9). And that was in a drastically higher run scoring environment.

Going by Bill James' runs created formula, the Cubs should be scoring around 5.2 runs per game. Which seems a lot more reasonable. Either way, it's one of the best offenses in MLB. 5.2 R/G in the NL is still pretty damn impressive IMO.

It'll be interesting. Cubs are batting roughly 30 points lower than that but their OBP is better. I'd expect both average and slugging to go up significantly as summer hits in Chicago. We shall see

 

[Mondo Jay]

I'm still not sold on the Nats. Its only a matter of time for Strasburg goes down again.

I think they should shut him down... You know, for the future and stuff.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Fuck Mat Latos.

Fuck The Red Sox

 

[Erie Warrior]

I think they should shut him down... You know, for the future and stuff.

Just when they play the Braves or just in general?

 

[Erie Warrior]

It'll be interesting. Cubs are batting roughly 30 points lower than that but their OBP is better. I'd expect both average and slugging to go up significantly as summer hits in Chicago. We shall see

Chris "Mad Dog" Russo thinks the Cubs will win between 105 and 108 games, so there you go.

 

[Bolts]

Congrats in advance on the series win Mets fans, they should get a least 1 shutout in the 4 games.

 

[Bolts]

Fuck Mat Latos.