Why isn't Von Miller signed yet?

[Draft Crazy]

I doubt that there are many Bronco fans who don't want Miller back. He is one of the most explosive athletes we have ever had.

The real question is can any team really afford a superstar who plays a position other than quarterback? Any such team may in fact be giving up a future chance at winning a Super Bowl. If his production declines due to injury, drugs, or lack of effort, we end up wasting an opportunity in the future. How many good players will we not be able to keep due to this one massive contract?

I on the fence on this one. Elway has to make this decision based on what is best for the team down the road. Miller has proven he can lead us to a Super Bowl victory. But we have lost Jackson and Travathan. Would we be better off trading him to Jacksonville in exchange for Dante Fowler and Myles Jack?

Without a doubt... QB, Pass rusher, CB, LT...

Lock them up!

Those are the 4 positions that if it's clicking. PAY UP!

 

[Draft Crazy]

I think the highest paid player part is not really an issue. Next year someone else will be the highest paid player.

This is easy if one thinks Denver contends for a Super Bowl with Von and may not make the playoffs without him.

If it were me, after the Brock fiasco ended , I would have paid Von then and there. Bowlen has never had a lot of cash on hand compared to the other owners so saving $200K in interest may be a reason but I think in Elway's heart of hearts he knows they will have to make Von very happy soon.

\
YES!

 

[packerzrule]

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Not completely right. Essentially when a player signs a contract there are going to be different parts that hit at different times. Such as signing bonus has to be paid day 1. The team can have the cap hit for the signing bonus go over a 5-year period of the contract but that money is handed over day 1. Then you have the guaranteed money for the first year which would be base salary plus any of the guarantees made for that first year. Now a team can delay when certain guarantees actually hit and can hold onto that money. That honestly can be best for the player and the team in the sense that the team doesn't have to pay ridiculous money day 1 and can space it over a period of time while the player keeps getting large chunks of money throughout the contract.

Such as Fletcher Cox. Now he signed a contract with fully guaranteed money (base salary year 1, signing bonus, and other guaranteed money) around $36.3 million. Now if he is on the roster in year 2 another set of guaranteed money kicks in where his 3rd year base salary becomes fully guaranteed. They will not cut him as the cap hit for cutting him after the first year would be $29.8 million with a ton of dead money. So that money while not fully guaranteed is essentially fully guaranteed unless something really crazy happens. So again this helps the team and helps the player both money wise.

Technical to say the least. I always wondered about the guarantees...does the league back it, etc., but you don't think about teams having cash flow issues in this day and age. Unless it's changed recently, the only part I'm somewhat sure of is the salary is paid over the 16 weeks of the regular season...and most top end players make far less for playoff games.

 

[Manimal Sighting]

Well when we are thinking about a multi-billion dollar industry we have to remember they always think in terms of money and making as much as they possibly can so missing out even on $200,000 is a big loss in their minds.

Hahaha. Only with the NFL can you get away with saying even just $200,000 like that isn't a lot of money. Also yes I agree with you all that he is a rare talent and that is not easy find or replace. Take a look at the nuggets for an example of that and how they can collect marginal talent but so hard to get that superstar. What does worry me however is that we are talking about the Super Bowl MVP here. If we are signing a player, any player, sometimes you have to think about perceived value and timing with contracts. Right now Von is at about as high a perceived value as he can be. I am not saying his career will for sure tank or anything but think about draft prospects like Hackenberg or Locker, they are seen as way more valuable one year than the next. Another thing to ponder, assuming he signs for whatever he is expected to get, what does it take for him to live up to or outplay his contract? what happens if he gets hurt or has a bad year? btw its the NFL, I understand that players who take up a huge % of their cap have been injured before, just let me play devils advocate

 

[CEH]

Hahaha. Only with the NFL can you get away with saying even just $200,000 like that isn't a lot of money. Also yes I agree with you all that he is a rare talent and that is not easy find or replace. Take a look at the nuggets for an example of that and how they can collect marginal talent but so hard to get that superstar. What does worry me however is that we are talking about the Super Bowl MVP here. If we are signing a player, any player, sometimes you have to think about perceived value and timing with contracts. Right now Von is at about as high a perceived value as he can be. I am not saying his career will for sure tank or anything but think about draft prospects like Hackenberg or Locker, they are seen as way more valuable one year than the next. Another thing to ponder, assuming he signs for whatever he is expected to get, what does it take for him to live up to or outplay his contract? what happens if he gets hurt or has a bad year? btw its the NFL, I understand that players who take up a huge % of their cap have been injured before, just let me play devils advocate

Death , taxes and NFL players will be injured during their career.
How many NFL players have sustained major injuries twice in their career? He's had one ACL injury so I would say the odds are lower that he will have another significant injury vs not having a significant injury and knowing one is coming.

For me, Von could have 5 sacks during the regular season and if he has another playoff run like last year he would be worth his salary. I want big time players to show up big time in big time games.

 

[cdumler7]

Hahaha. Only with the NFL can you get away with saying even just $200,000 like that isn't a lot of money. Also yes I agree with you all that he is a rare talent and that is not easy find or replace. Take a look at the nuggets for an example of that and how they can collect marginal talent but so hard to get that superstar. What does worry me however is that we are talking about the Super Bowl MVP here. If we are signing a player, any player, sometimes you have to think about perceived value and timing with contracts. Right now Von is at about as high a perceived value as he can be. I am not saying his career will for sure tank or anything but think about draft prospects like Hackenberg or Locker, they are seen as way more valuable one year than the next. Another thing to ponder, assuming he signs for whatever he is expected to get, what does it take for him to live up to or outplay his contract? what happens if he gets hurt or has a bad year? btw its the NFL, I understand that players who take up a huge % of their cap have been injured before, just let me play devils advocate

All good points...Just some rebuttal because well just have to be that guy

1) The big difference between Von and say a Hackenberg or Locker is that he has proven it over a longer period of time. We are talking every year of his career up to this point in the NFL plus a couple of years at the college level. He has been a very consistent performer from the start. So I feel much better investing in a guy like that compared to somebody who just happened to turn it on the year their contract runs out.

2) It definitely will be hard for Von to fully live up to the contract but to me if he continues to produce like he has then he is worth the money. Throw in at this point Sanders is our only big contract player left to sign other than Von and we still have plenty of cap space and lots of draft picks in this upcoming draft to fill some holes. We have the QB position locked up for the next 5 seasons at a very cheap contract so money wise the Broncos are sitting very pretty.

3) The Broncos will design the Contract that while it will hurt if he begins to fall off they will also work to get an out after 3 years with as little dead money as possible. So if Von falls off at least it won't kill the team for long but I don't see him being that type of player. I think he does strive for greatness and being recognized as one of the best to have ever done it.

 

[cdumler7]

Technical to say the least. I always wondered about the guarantees...does the league back it, etc., but you don't think about teams having cash flow issues in this day and age. Unless it's changed recently, the only part I'm somewhat sure of is the salary is paid over the 16 weeks of the regular season...and most top end players make far less for playoff games.

Really even the poorest owners in the league probably still have enough collateral that they could easily get a loan if needed. They were talking about this a while back on the radio and they said most likely every team has a credit line with at least one bank for up to $250 million. Now they would never need to spend that much in a single season but just shows if they really want to get a deal done they can do it.

And you are right these contracts are very technical. Most leagues the entire contract is guaranteed so they are pretty simplified of what the player can expect to make. Most of the contract just deals with trade clauses, suspension issues, and things of that matter but the money side of it is pretty easy to figure out. With NFL contracts not being fully guaranteed yeah the language towards the money can get very interesting.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Really even the poorest owners in the league probably still have enough collateral that they could easily get a loan if needed. They were talking about this a while back on the radio and they said most likely every team has a credit line with at least one bank for up to $250 million. Now they would never need to spend that much in a single season but just shows if they really want to get a deal done they can do it.

And you are right these contracts are very technical. Most leagues the entire contract is guaranteed so they are pretty simplified of what the player can expect to make. Most of the contract just deals with trade clauses, suspension issues, and things of that matter but the money side of it is pretty easy to figure out. With NFL contracts not being fully guaranteed yeah the language towards the money can get very interesting.

I may have mentioned this in the past, but I used to play quite a few celebrity charity golf tournaments back when I could regularly play during the weekday. The Art Shell event I got in a few times and he always had a few current, but mostly x-nfl players as part of the celebrities that you'd get in your group.

You get to the 19th hole and some guys would open up a lot more...they still don't understand how they're the only major pro sports league w/o guaranteed contracts....then and only then will we see the true value of player contracts.

As I understand it...a million dollar season, the player nets about $480k to $500k after taxes and agent fees which both come off the top...one reason the agents press hard for that signing bonus so the player has enough cash to have some pocket money until the season starts...often time rookie have borrowed from the agent as well.

 

[cdumler7]

I may have mentioned this in the past, but I used to play quite a few celebrity charity golf tournaments back when I could regularly play during the weekday. The Art Shell event I got in a few times and he always had a few current, but mostly x-nfl players as part of the celebrities that you'd get in your group.

You get to the 19th hole and some guys would open up a lot more...they still don't understand how they're the only major pro sports league w/o guaranteed contracts....then and only then will we see the true value of player contracts.

As I understand it...a million dollar season, the player nets about $480k to $500k after taxes and agent fees which both come off the top...one reason the agents press hard for that signing bonus so the player has enough cash to have some pocket money until the season starts...often time rookie have borrowed from the agent as well.

Well I would think they would know why their contracts are not fully guaranteed. The odds of a player getting hurt during any contract are pretty high. Heck even the top QB's in the NFL have suffered major injuries at different times. Compare that with baseball where a player can play 20 years and never have a major injury. So less risk in the other sports of that major injury make it more important for the teams to protect themselves from having to pay a player that misses 2 years of a 6 year deal on IR and is never even close to the same when he does come back.

And you are right the contracts do not pay as much as a person might think because of the major taxes and fees they have to pay. There are companies that all they do is specialize in giving especially rookies some of that walking around money. Unfortunately this is how a lot of those players get themselves in trouble because they just have no clue how money works in the real world. They see that $10 million contract they signed and think "I have $10 million!!" When it is more like $5 million plus it is spaced out over a long period of time but they go spend day 1 like they have that $10 million. Throw in these companies that give them loans have such ridiculous interest rates. They feed on the ignorance of these young millionaires. Outside of sports/entertainment most people who have made millions have done so because they are off the charts intelligent and know what they are doing with money. You are not going to as easily fool them into signing on for a 40% interest rate loan.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

Well I would think they would know why their contracts are not fully guaranteed. The odds of a player getting hurt during any contract are pretty high. Heck even the top QB's in the NFL have suffered major injuries at different times. Compare that with baseball where a player can play 20 years and never have a major injury. So less risk in the other sports of that major injury make it more important for the teams to protect themselves from having to pay a player that misses 2 years of a 6 year deal on IR and is never even close to the same when he does come back.

And you are right the contracts do not pay as much as a person might think because of the major taxes and fees they have to pay. There are companies that all they do is specialize in giving especially rookies some of that walking around money. Unfortunately this is how a lot of those players get themselves in trouble because they just have no clue how money works in the real world. They see that $10 million contract they signed and think "I have $10 million!!" When it is more like $5 million plus it is spaced out over a long period of time but they go spend day 1 like they have that $10 million. Throw in these companies that give them loans have such ridiculous interest rates. They feed on the ignorance of these young millionaires. Outside of sports/entertainment most people who have made millions have done so because they are off the charts intelligent and know what they are doing with money. You are not going to as easily fool them into signing on for a 40% interest rate loan.

The injury factor is higher...no question, but they can factor that risk into the contract value. That said, MLB, every year teams lose pitchers for substantial time...in fact, you're considered lucky if you don't have an injury to a key player./ or pitcher..NBA we can name every team, I probably can find one key player that missed a good amount of games due to injury...injury is not a good enough reason imo today...insurance can handle that on both sides. Anthony Kim was a promising young PGAT player...got hurt to the degree he couldn't compete on tour anymore...he's living off a $10 mil dollar insurance policy now. If Tiger can't come back, I'm sure he'll be able to cash in as well...the policy will be more expensive for a WR vs a OL, but that can be done....if you get cut due to injury maybe the team gets to knock 50% off the cap...the player's insurance kicks in to cover the balance...if you get cut for lack of performance...should be on the team 100%.

The players are not pushing for fully guaranteed contracts because the partial guarantees are rising as it is...but the NFL/NFLPA trotting out these $100 mil contracts when both parties know that unless you're a big time QB, you're not going to see all of that money.

I remember having a conversation with a barber that I did business with in advertising for years...he cut hair for several on the Falcons. The big TE Algae Crumpler was a regular of his...he made a nice career in the league...did well financially but he explained why that 70% bankrupt is closer to the truth in the NFL.

W/o going thru all the details...he said the top 20% of players make the money is about 65% or more of the cap...about 40% over every NFL roster is made of up league minimum and vet minimum type players....long and short, these are the majority of the guys that don't make to a second contract or even complete the 1st one...long and short, yeah you have the VY's of the league that flat out blow it, but the majority, they can't sustain the lifestyle....hard to tell a young guy that just signed a contract for $1.5 mil over 4 yrs they should be living in a $150-200k property and driving a $30k car.

 

[cdumler7]

Well the rumor is going around that other teams have contacted Miller's agent and told them that if he is willing to sit out a year they are willing to make a substantial offer to get his services. Now if any of these teams are leaked that is some major tampering charges but it could be why Miller is so willing to hold the line.

 

[CEH]

Well the rumor is going around that other teams have contacted Miller's agent and told them that if he is willing to sit out a year they are willing to make a substantial offer to get his services. Now if any of these teams are leaked that is some major tampering charges but it could be why Miller is so willing to hold the line.

Hypothetically, if Denver pulled their offer today ala Carolina and Norman, you would see teams cutting major top players to have the cap space to sign Miller. It would be a feeding frenzy even this late in the game and I would think teams that normally do not jump in the FA pool would jump in feet first for Miller.

 

[cdumler7]

Hypothetically, if Denver pulled their offer today ala Carolina and Norman, you would see teams cutting major top players to have the cap space to sign Miller. It would be a feeding frenzy even this late in the game and I would think teams that normally do not jump in the FA pool would jump in feet first for Miller.

Well any time we see a top-10 player not just for his position but in the entire league hit FA it definitely does turn into a feeding frenzy. I mean Manning is a great example even after all the surgeries where half the league was in pursuit and trying to make sure they had the room if he would want to sign with them. I had to laugh at how many teams afterwards said "no we were not trying to pursue him we were just talking to him because we love talking to players."

Now if it does come out that other teams have been calling his agent though man there could be some major penalties handed out for that since he is on the Exclusive Franchise Tag that prohibits any team to talk to his agent. I know it probably still happens and maybe this rumor is just being put out by Von Miller's side to put a bit more pressure on Elway and the Broncos. Honestly both sides have not fought very nicely in this contract negotiation. I'm just hoping if something does get done that they can hug it out and move forward.

 

[CEH]

Well any time we see a top-10 player not just for his position but in the entire league hit FA it definitely does turn into a feeding frenzy. I mean Manning is a great example even after all the surgeries where half the league was in pursuit and trying to make sure they had the room if he would want to sign with them. I had to laugh at how many teams afterwards said "no we were not trying to pursue him we were just talking to him because we love talking to players."

Now if it does come out that other teams have been calling his agent though man there could be some major penalties handed out for that since he is on the Exclusive Franchise Tag that prohibits any team to talk to his agent. I know it probably still happens and maybe this rumor is just being put out by Von Miller's side to put a bit more pressure on Elway and the Broncos. Honestly both sides have not fought very nicely in this contract negotiation. I'm just hoping if something does get done that they can hug it out and move forward.

See bold. Kinda my whole point with the thread. Why hasn't this been buttoned up a long time ago is all I'm asking. I know Elway and Sullivan are creative enough to make it work.Maybe Miller is asking for $80MM guaranteed (4 years) or something like that.

Assume Miller got $25MM this year , if he sits out, he would have to get ~$40MM in first year money to break even in 2017. Denver is offering $39MM the first two years.

Very odd.

 

[Manimal Sighting]

This sounds like classic bargaining and power dynamics with one side trying to create leverage on the other

 

[RDog]

Agree with this...

And like Milehigh said the fact that we won't have a ton of money invested in the QB position makes a deal with Von Miller a little more possible. To me Malik was gone no matter what. The Broncos knew his value wasn't $15 million a year. To me that would be terrible investment wise if the Broncos had gone up to that value for a good but not great player.

Also no we would not be able to keep both Malik and Trevathan for the price of Von plus add the players that RDog hinted towards in Jacksonville. Malik is making on average $14.25 million per year, Fowler $5.8 million per year, Miles Jack $1.6 million per year, and Trevathan $6 million per year. So in total if we were to make that trade we are talking about $28 million per year. And Malik and Trevathan together make more than what Von will make and to me Von is worth a Malik and Trevathan combined. Those type of guys are replaceable. There are not many guys I would say can do even remotely close to what Von does on the field.

I agree that we probably wouldn't have signed Malik, nor should we at that asking price.

 

[Mingo]

It is classic negotiating leverage - this deal was always going to go down to the last minute - so both sides can sell to their client - they were as tough as they could be.

The next classic step in the negotiating process - happens about now - as each side has to decide what hill is worth it enough to die on. All attorneys and negotiating reps at this point - are trying to lay into their client's mind their bottom line terms.

We know one thing - for both sides - it will have to be the biggest deal for a defensive player in history - in both guaranteed money and full contract totals. The Broncos know where that point is and don't want to pay much more than enough to brag about the contract - they don't mind setting the record for pay, but they don't want to play a stupid jump about the magic number.

 

[cdumler7]

Nothing to do with his contract but Von Miller and quite a few other NFL players will be on Family Feud this Sunday. I just saw a preview of one of Von Miller's answers and well it wasn't pretty. The question was "What do some people do sexier than others?" His answer was "Drive."

 

[CEH]

Nothing to do with his contract but Von Miller and quite a few other NFL players will be on Family Feud this Sunday. I just saw a preview of one of Von Miller's answers and well it wasn't pretty. The question was "What do some people do sexier than others?" His answer was "Drive."

Maybe "Dance "?????