2016 AFC Playoff Teams

[iknowftbll]

At this early stage in the off season it's been mind blowingly boring. The Broncos have played it cool in free agency, which I am actually pretty comfortable with. I don't think everyone agrees about how well or badly things have been handled with the likes of Jackson and Osweiler leaving, and some people are not fond of the way they let Trevathon walk without even an offer (a move that suggests they already have his replacement in mind).

I am actually pretty comfortable with how the team has handled talent this go around. I didn't want to overpay for Osweiler. I felt the offer to Jackson was fair and that his performance was bolstered by those around him, an advantage he'll no longer have in Jacksonville. I did not like the Sanchez signing at first, but when I saw they got him for essentially a 12 pack of beer and Mile High Stadium shaped paper weight and refreshed my memory on his skill set I don't hate the idea of him being our starter. And of course I still hope the Kap deal goes down. Kap was my #2 choice behind Oz and even though I want him in Denver I'm glad Elway is not giving up too much to get him.

All told, this off season tells me Elway is serous about competing "from now on." The long term advantages this team is gaining cannot be denied. These deals are all cap friendly deals in the out years. But what about 2016?

On another forum, and without the advantage of the draft or actual schedule, I made this projection about the Broncos finish:

Vs AFC West: 4-2
Vs AFC South: 3-1
Vs NFC South: 3-1
Vs AFC 1st Place: 1-1

That's 11-5, a good finish for any team. I think that's doable even with Sanchez as our starting QB. And of course, I'll refine and adjust once the actual schedule comes out and after the draft when the roster is more complete.

With that said, what would 11-5 (in that general combination) get us? Would that be good enough to win the AFC West again? Where would it put the Broncos in relation to the other AFC West teams?

Let's review the 2015 playoffs and near misses:

1. Denver Broncos: 12-4
2. New England Patriots: 12-4
3. Cincinnati Bengals: 12-4
4. Houston Texans: 9-7
5. Kansas City Chiefs: 11-5
6. Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-6

Near misses and teams that may factor into the 2016 picture:

New York Jets: 10-6
Indianapolis Colts: 8-8
Buffalo Bills: 8-8
Oakland Raiders: 7-9
Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-11

I don't want this post to be too long, so I'll break this into 2-3 posts. More to follow.

 

[iknowftbll]

As evidenced by the 6 actual playoff teams as well as 5 additional teams I believe could become a factor in 2016, I think the AFC may be a pretty competitive conference again. The remaining 5 teams I really don't consider much of a contender to challenge for a playoff spot, but the 5 teams all listed under "near misses" could be a part of the scenery as the 2016 playoff slate firms up.

I'll go through them one by one:

New York Jets: At least every other year now a team will finish 10-6 and miss the playoffs. This year it was the Jets, despite things really starting to click for them on offense and defense. But they've still not signed Fitz, and while they may still be a solid team it's hard to see them replicating the success they had while breaking in a new QB in 2016. If they sign RGIII anything from 4-12 to 12-4 opens up. A hard team to figure out at this point.

Indianapolis Colts: Despite an injury plagued season they hung in and finished 8-8, still in position to win the division due to an absence of a standout in the South. It's easy to say Luck being injured really did them in but Matt H. came in and actually did well for them. A healthy Luck will probably make a big difference, but this is still far from a complete team going into 2016. I won't count them out simply because their division is weak. A 10-6 finish and AFC South Champs is well within the realm of possible, but so too is another 8-8 finish likely followed by a coaching overhaul.

Buffalo Bills: Rex Ryan has been put on notice: Make the playoffs or pack your bags. This team had its moments in 2015 and in year 2 I could easily see Ryan getting them over the hump. Still they don't seem like a complete team on offense or defense and the traffic ahead of them (Jets, Patriots) it's hard to see them elbowing their way into a crowded playoff field.

Oakland Raiders: Of all the teams that missed the playoffs in 2015, the Raiders will likely be the most popular pick to reach in 2016. In fact, I'd venture to say the Raiders will be a popular pick to win the AFC West. The young core pieces of this team are really coming together. It has taken Reggie Mac time but he has extricated that team out of salary cap hell and has them in a position where the building blocks are taking shape. But despite a big jump in wins from 2014-2015, the Raiders still have an uphill battle in front of them. They're in a tough division where they are going to need to at least split with the Chiefs and Broncos as well as hold water outside the division. Another 7-9 season won't surprise me, but neither will a 10-6 finish and a playoff berth.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The only reason they're on this list is because how shoddy the AFC South is. Despite a 5-11 finish their offense showed some signs of life in 2015 and if they continue to build on that they may be downright explosive in 2016. Add to it they appear to be building a defense too, rolling out the checkbook for Malik Jackson. The Texans and Colts appear significantly better but don't be surprised if this division is a 3-way log jam at the top and the Jags come out ahead of everyone else at 9-7. Then again, it's the Jaguars, so don't be surprised if they go 6-10 either.

 

[iknowftbll]

And of those 5 teams has a fighting chance to reach the playoffs, and if that happens, one of the 6 playoff teams from 2016 will be crowded out. Which one will it be?

Top to bottom:

Denver Broncos: Despite so many doom sayers decrying the "mass exodus" of talent, the "Sky is falling" prophets, the "flood gate is open and reservoir is low" types out there, the Broncos are actually in really good shape right now. They are poised to return 9 of 11 starters on defense, have bolstered their O-line, and let's face it: it would take a catastrophic failure by the coaches and players for the offense to not be improved in 2016. And don't expect a huge drop off on defense. In fact, I expect a ferocity from this group like none other. Despite being the champs, this team is getting written off. The last time they were so extensively written off by everyone...

New England Patriots: On offense look for this group to be high flying. I wonder if their defense is going to be able to get any pressure, stop the run or stop the pass. This team may score 35 PPG, but right now they look weak on defense. Still, we should all know better than to write them off. I don't see any of the other AFC East teams unseeing them from first place, and that means this team will be in the playoffs again in 2016. Will they be good enough for a first round bye again? That's a fair and debatable point.

Cincinnati Bengals: They've gotten progressively better every year since Dalton became their QB, but are still a dismal 0-5 in the playoffs. What makes 2015 interesting is Dalton missed significant playing time. AJ came in and played well so it's hard to argue Dalton would have made much of a difference in the W-L column in 2015. Right now they appear to be solid again in 2016 but you can never right off the Steelers and even the Ravens. I don't know if I'm ready to say the Bengals drop out of the playoff picture but they may be looking at a WC in 2016.

Houston Texans: Despite signing Osweiler and having a great defense, the Texans appear to be the most vulnerable of the 2015 playoff teams. I think Osweiler will be a big upgrade for them on offense and they do have the advantage of playing in a weak division. At the same time they paid big money to a relatively unproven QB, and the division can certainly improve in 2016. I think someone in the AFC South reaches 10-6 this year, and I think the Texans are a likely candidate. But this team is just as likely an 8-8 outsider in 2016.

Kansas City Chiefs: Last year was a pretty significant season for the Chiefs. To start 1-5 and finish 11-5 cannot be taken away from them. And to finally win a playoff game is a huge boost to the franchise's psyche. The Chiefs are going to be the consensus pick to win the AFC West going into 2016. They are pretty solid on offense, even a bit under-rated. Their defense is one of the best in the league. Despite these factors, this season feels a lot like the off season leading into 2014 where the only thing higher than the expectations were the disappointment. And consider Andy Reid's coaching alone is going to cost them a win or two. If the Raiders improve just enough and the Broncos hold steady, it's actually not too far-fetched to see this team a 8-8/9-7 and out of the playoffs.

Pittsburg Steelers: I always have a tough time figuring out the AFC North teams. While I think the Steelers are always the most reliable pick week to week, year to year, they have proven themselves vulnerable at times along the way. I am not ready to anoint them AFC North winners, but it wouldn't surprise me. Nor would it surprise me if they go 8-8 and miss the playoffs.

I'd rank the likelihood of the AFC teams returning to the playoffs:

1. Broncos/Patriots (Pats even with Broncos because a weaker division)
3. Bengals/Chiefs
5. Steelers
6. Texans

 

[SpringStein]

I'm not ready to write off the Ravens for 2016. They suffered an inordinate amount of injuries, including Flacco early in the season. With their FO and coaching staff's history, I think they are a dark horse to watch for the coming year.

 

[iknowftbll]

^ I think they will be a factor but within the AFC North. I don't know if I'm ready to say they're playoff contenders again. You're right though: that's never a team to write off.

Speaking of the Ravens, did you guys see that one of their players was killed in a dirt bike accident? Horrible news.

 

[cdumler7]

The Ravens though were struggling before a ton of injuries hit. Now I like their coaching staff but they have a lot to figure out and other than the Weddle signing not a big fan of their off season.

 

[Mingo]

Great stuff I-No. I agree with George the Ravens are contenders.

I also thought - isn't the hour glass running out for Tom Brady too? When is it going to leave him -or when will the next injury be the last one. Without Brady the Pats - are average.

I agree also the Broncos could be improved and go down to 5 losses on the season next year. The competition inside the AFC west with the improving raiders and the chiefs - the AFC West maybe the toughest division in football next year.

If Oz hits it big in Houston - where he may do very well - since they have a good defense and some top receivers and a top coach - he won't have any legends (Elway - Manning) to be compared to in Houston.

 

[iknowftbll]

The Ravens though were struggling before a ton of injuries hit. Now I like their coaching staff but they have a lot to figure out and other than the Weddle signing not a big fan of their off season.

Perhaps not, but I definitely think they can be a huge spoiler in the AFC North. I see them as a 6-10 or 7-9 team, potentially winning their last game of the season to ruin either the Bengals or Steelers post season chances or seeding spot.

 

[SpiritOf77]

The Steelers have the edge over so many other teams because, similar to the current Broncos team, the staff there is loaded with Steeler alumni and guys with HC experience ..

The fact that Mike Munchak - a HOF player and former HC - is the OL coach is pretty impressive .. Same with Todd Haley ..

The Steelers will always have the advantage over a team like the Bengals because of what is going on above the shoulers ..

Just look at the adjustments the Steelers made in the regular season game vs the Broncos

Pittsburgh and New England, once again, will pose the biggest threat to the Broncos .. While the Chiefs have a good team, the other two organizations will always have a team on the field that will be competitive, no matter who is in uniform ..

 

[Mingo]

The Steelers have the edge over so many other teams because, similar to the current Broncos team, the staff there is loaded with Steeler alumni and guys with HC experience ..

The fact that Mike Munchak - a HOF player and former HC - is the OL coach is pretty impressive .. Same with Todd Haley ..

The Steelers will always have the advantage over a team like the Bengals because of what is going on above the shoulers ..

Just look at the adjustments the Steelers made in the regular season game vs the Broncos

Pittsburgh and New England, once again, will pose the biggest threat to the Broncos .. While the Chiefs have a good team, the other two organizations will always have a team on the field that will be competitive, no matter who is in uniform ..

Brilliant and concise analysis - Lucas.

 

[CEH]

The Steelers have the edge over so many other teams because, similar to the current Broncos team, the staff there is loaded with Steeler alumni and guys with HC experience ..

The fact that Mike Munchak - a HOF player and former HC - is the OL coach is pretty impressive .. Same with Todd Haley ..

The Steelers will always have the advantage over a team like the Bengals because of what is going on above the shoulers ..

Just look at the adjustments the Steelers made in the regular season game vs the Broncos

Pittsburgh and New England, once again, will pose the biggest threat to the Broncos .. While the Chiefs have a good team, the other two organizations will always have a team on the field that will be competitive, no matter who is in uniform ..

Pittsburgh ,when healthy, is the most talented team in the AFC.

Pittsburgh's scouting dept is 2nd to none. I don;t know how they can continue to come up with All Pro WRs but they do.

 

[58crash]

It is called Development ..Very few teams get that .. Very few players seem to get that ..

I have been pretty pissed at the thought most players don't get development our that they throw away the NFL by going to teams that have no clue and expecting the same and fall on their ass

 

[WalkerBoh]

Another thing about Pittsburgh is that they rarely worry about keeping players that are too expensive. They are usually confident enough in their replacements that they don't overpay to keep talent that they can replace cheaper.

 

[58crash]

Wallace look at him now Dud before HOF player .. He destroyed that all by himself ..

 

[cdumler7]

Pittsburgh ,when healthy, is the most talented team in the AFC.

Pittsburgh's scouting dept is 2nd to none. I don;t know how they can continue to come up with All Pro WRs but they do.

I would say more so than scouting department they have a stable FO that doesn't panic from one bad year. So many teams feel public pressure to hit the reset button so they go through coaching staffs faster than getting a new phone. So players brought in for a certain system are then not given the chance to show what they can do. Look at the Broncos this last season. Our 2012 draft was considered a huge bust with Osweiler getting no time on the field, Wolfe being busted for PED's plus his serious injury, Hillman not quite being what we needed. Malik before this year was more of a part time player than a starter so really Trevathan was the one major bright spot of that draft. Then we come to this season where Wolfe dominates, Osweiler helps us win a couple of important games, Hillman takes over as our Starting RB, Malik shines as a starter, and Trevathan comes back to play probably his best season. Now it looks like maybe Elway's best draft. As much as some have gotten after him for his drafts his first 2 drafts got some players paid big time. Von Miller is about to be the highest paid Defensive player in the league, Franklin got a very nice deal from San Diego, Rahim Moore was paid pretty decent, and JT got a crazy deal. I mean it is why we keep getting so many Comp picks year after year with Elway and almost 0 before he came to town.

 

[CEH]

Justin Houston 2016 season in doubt after ACL surgery

 

[cdumler7]

Justin Houston 2016 season in doubt after ACL surgery

Saw this...this might be the bigger news than who is our starting QB this year. Huge blow to the Chiefs depending on how much of the season he misses and what he actually is when he comes back.

 

[iknowftbll]

Saw this...this might be the bigger news than who is our starting QB this year. Huge blow to the Chiefs depending on how much of the season he misses and what he actually is when he comes back.

Fortunately for the Chiefs this breaks before the draft. They may be able to at least partially address the situation by drafting someone who can come in and at least partially replace Houston.

I consider the Chiefs a vulnerable playoff team though. I think they will get a lot of hype and end up 9-7 and out of the playoffs in 2016. I may change my mind after the schedule is released and of course after the draft, but right now they have the feel of a team that is poised to do one of two things: 1) take it to the next level after a solid 3 years and finally a playoff win or 2) revert back to a mediocre or slightly over average team and disappoint fans once again. Two reasons lead me to believe it'll be #2. The first is basic numbers. Teams more often than not follow solid seasons with down seasons. It's not always a linear progression in the NFL and 11-5 and a playoff win this year doesn't make a team a SB contender next year. Secondly this pattern is evident in a lot of teams but greatly evident in the Chiefs. They got that playoff monkey off their back, but when was the last time this team made the playoffs 2 consecutive years? It's been a long time and that pattern has already exhibited itself even in the short few years Reid has coached the team.

 

[cdumler7]

Fortunately for the Chiefs this breaks before the draft. They may be able to at least partially address the situation by drafting someone who can come in and at least partially replace Houston.

I consider the Chiefs a vulnerable playoff team though. I think they will get a lot of hype and end up 9-7 and out of the playoffs in 2016. I may change my mind after the schedule is released and of course after the draft, but right now they have the feel of a team that is poised to do one of two things: 1) take it to the next level after a solid 3 years and finally a playoff win or 2) revert back to a mediocre or slightly over average team and disappoint fans once again. Two reasons lead me to believe it'll be #2. The first is basic numbers. Teams more often than not follow solid seasons with down seasons. It's not always a linear progression in the NFL and 11-5 and a playoff win this year doesn't make a team a SB contender next year. Secondly this pattern is evident in a lot of teams but greatly evident in the Chiefs. They got that playoff monkey off their back, but when was the last time this team made the playoffs 2 consecutive years? It's been a long time and that pattern has already exhibited itself even in the short few years Reid has coached the team.

Well the more I keep reading on Justin Houston's injury the more it sounds like at the very least half the season is gone and they are leaning more and more to it being an entire season. If so that definitely changes that entire defense. They did draft Dee Ford but so far he has been a major bust for them. So yeah they will need to draft at least one more pass rusher as Tamba Hali is getting up in age and should be more like Ware where he can be a part time player to help preserve him for the entire season.

As for the Chiefs season to me it will depend a lot on how their OL develops. If Fisher can take that leap into actually being a good OL player for them then I think they could become a decent team. I am like you though that at least for now with the news on Houston they look more like an 8-8 team than a playoff team. They are going to need some players that have done very little to step up big time for them to keep going in the right direction. But hey same could be said about us in many ways. I just think we have a lot more proven parts already in place.

 

[iknowftbll]

^ CD, what all this dialogue surrounding the Chiefs and Broncos alike proves is how much the QB position is weighted by the media. Despite the Broncos winning the Super Bowl with some of the worst QB play the story is the team is in trouble due to their QB situation. I fully believe they'll be good enough to win the AFC West even with Sanchez as the QB. He can be a serviceable option and with the tools this team has surrounding him it's reasonable to believe he can even thrive.

Meanwhile this is a huge blow to the Chiefs on defense and they've seen some turnover of their own this year too. It'll be interesting if the dialogue shifts on them like it has on the Broncos.