Pablo Sandoval

[gp956]

I've been playing around with density maps lately and thought I'd use Pablo Sandoval as a test bed.

Here is a density plot of the location of pitches that were thrown to Pablo in 2009 vs. 2010. The density is mapped to a color, so that deep red is those locations where the most pitches were thrown, yellow the least.

 

[gp956]

What I can see in the plots is that pitchers worked pablo a little more in the zone in 2010 vs 2009, and not as much inside as in 2009. Hopefully over the course of the next couple of days I'll produce some density maps that shows how he handled pitches in and out of the strikezone.

 

[gp956]

Pitch location of Pablo's hits:

One thing is clear - in 2010 Pablo's "hot zone" did not correspond to the highest density of pitch locations delivered to him. Note: the scales have been changed from plot one to plot two.

 

[Heathbar012]

Good stuff, gp. Don't take the lack of comments as a lack of interest. Take them as an example of methodical information processing by the cautious.

 

[gp956]

Good stuff, gp. Don't take the lack of comments as a lack of interest. Take them as an example of methodical information processing by the cautious.

Sure thing. Frankly, they're aren't telling us anything we didn't already know from watching the games. Pablo just wasn't squaring up hittable pitches as often as he did in 2009.

I posted this mostly to dispel the persistent comments that pitchers adjusted to pablo and stopped throwing him strikes, and that pablo failed to adjust to this and swung at slop. If anything, the plots show that pitchers threw more in the zone to him in 2010 and pablo simply didn't get as many hits out of them.

The next plot will show what pitches he swung at, and the last I'm contemplating is one that is weighted for slugging average.

 

[gp956]

Pablo's unproductive swings, i.e. swing and miss or fouls:

It seems clear to me that pablo was not chasing balls out of the zone any more in 2010 than he did in 2009. In fact, it looks like he actually chased less in 2010 than 2009.

 

[gp956]

Still have the slugging percentage chart to do, but the one other aspect that I want to look at is how pitchers worked pablo with off-speed stuff last year vs. 2009. Anyone have any thoughts about that - or even how to quantify the data?

I could look at the average velocity in pitchers counts for instance, or simply chart a histogram of pitch classifications.

Still it looks to me like the data is supporting the conjecture that whatever pablo's trouble were last year it was mostly due to internal factors (lasik surgery - family troubles - weight) and not how pitchers worked him.

 

[tzill]

Still have the slugging percentage chart to do, but the one other aspect that I want to look at is how pitchers worked pablo with off-speed stuff last year vs. 2009. Anyone have any thoughts about that - or even how to quantify the data?

I could look at the average velocity in pitchers counts for instance, or simply chart a histogram of pitch classifications.

Still it looks to me like the data is supporting the conjecture that whatever pablo's trouble were last year it was mostly due to internal factors (lasik surgery - family troubles - weight) and not how pitchers worked him.

I don't know that I'd restrict it to just pitchers counts, I think Panda had trouble with breaking stuff on all counts, especially first pitches.

 

[gp956]

Well, I planned on breaking it down by count leverage - so that should cover all bases. But what this is all about is whether pitchers worked pablo differently in 2010 vs 2009.

 

[tzill]

Well, I planned on breaking it down by count leverage - so that should cover all bases. But what this is all about is whether pitchers worked pablo differently in 2010 vs 2009.

Ah, I see. If you controlled for count leverage, that would do it. I'd be stunned if there was a big difference between 2009 and 2010.

 

[gp956]

Ah, I see. If you controlled for count leverage, that would do it. I'd be stunned if there was a big difference between 2009 and 2010.

Yeah, me too.

 

[gp956]

Looks like I wont have time to finish this before the new year. I think i've got method that will give me a visual representation of wOBA by location without ever having to actually calculate the stat.

 

[xxERICSMITHXX]

This is great stuff

 

[ColinCoby]

Interesting stuff.

I have to admit: when I read the words density and Panda, I thought you were going in a totally different direction.

 

[fanadapanda]

Awesome stuff. But since he's a switch-hitter, I'm having trouble figuring out if indeed he was pitched inside less (doesn't look like it if I envision him up there from the left side).

A couple of things that I've dug up.

FanGraphs says he did swing at more pitches outside the zone in 2010, and fewer within the zone.

He put fewer balls in play on the first pitch than he did in 2009, but did great when he did so.

He was abysmal when he got behind in the count, when there were runners on base, and on the road.

He was great when putting the first pitch in play, when leading off innings, when he got ahead in the count 1-0 (especially if it got to 2-1), and at home.

His power obviously dropped, with his home run per fly ball rate dropping from 14% to 7% (so even though he hit more flies, they were more outs).

But his contact rate was actually better on pitches in or out of the zone in 2010 than 2009.

Pitchers gave him fewer fastballs and cut fastballs, and more sliders, curves, and changeups. Where he had had positive runs above average on all but sliders in 2009, it was only on fastballs in 2010 (and that dropped from 20.8 runs above average to 2.2).

Against curves, he was particularly lost this year compared to last, going from 7.9 runs above average to 8.1 below.

Walk rate slightly down, strikeout rate stable, ground ball rate stable, line drives down slightly, fly balls up slightly, infield flies up 50%.

I think he was thinking too much up there, perhaps due to Bam-Bam Meulens' influence. They need to leave the Panda alone when he gets up to the plate (well, one plate, at least .

 

[UTVolCountry]

Welcome!

 

[calsnowskier]

What was his BABIP the last 2 seasons? I did a quick search and couldnt find them...

 

[fanadapanda]

What was his BABIP the last 2 seasons? I did a quick search and couldnt find them...

.291 in 2010, .350 in 2009.

Here's the full chart, including minors:

Year Level BABIP Triple Slash

2006 A .313 .264/.309/.320
2007 A+ .305 .287/.312/.476
2008 A+ .384 .359/.412/.597
AA .345 .337/.364/.549
SFG .356 .345/.357/.490
2009 SFG .350 .330/.387/.556
2010 SFG .291 .268/.323/.409

 

[calsnowskier]

.291 in 2010, .350 in 2009.

Here's the full chart, including minors:

Year Level BABIP Triple Slash

2006 A .313 .264/.309/.320
2007 A+ .305 .287/.312/.476
2008 A+ .384 .359/.412/.597
AA .345 .337/.364/.549
SFG .356 .345/.357/.490
2009 SFG .350 .330/.387/.556
2010 SFG .291 .268/.323/.409

Very interesting...

I was worried that his '09 BABIP would be ridiculously high, thus explaining his elite year. Glad to see the reverse is true. This adds to me hope that he will, at least to an extent, have a bounce-back year.

 

[fanadapanda]

Very interesting...

I was worried that his '09 BABIP would be ridiculously high, thus explaining his elite year. Glad to see the reverse is true. This adds to me hope that he will, at least to an extent, have a bounce-back year.

Yeah, I have hopes too, if the Giants don't overweight the "basic" stats and instead delve deeper.

His BABIP split in 2010: LH .300, RH .265. He really was struggling right-handed this year.

His road woes were also stark.

At AT&T .330/.382/.520
Away .208/.266/.299

And it really seems like it's all about the first pitch for Pablo:

Player - OPS from 1-0 on/OPS from 0-1 on:

Huff .879/.813
Ross .720/.727
Torres .944/.719
Burrell .958/.717
Posey .987/.702
Whiteside .598/.687
Sanchez .888/.673
Uribe .717/.652
Rowand .658/.646
Schierholtz .755/.634
Renteria .906/.528
Ishikawa .860/.526
Sandoval .915/.497
Fontenot .772/.423

Second worst on the team in OPS after 0-1 (ahead of only Fontenot, his replacement in the playoffs).