Am I the only one slightly concerned by this?

[seahawksfan234]

Take a look at these two infielders for a second:

Player A:
From ages 26-30:

Player B:
From ages 26-30:

Compare these two players for a moment then continue to my second post and I will explain why this concerns me.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Player A is Chase Utley from 2005 to 2009 and player B is Robinson Cano from 2009 to 2013.

Here is what Chase Utley has done since 2009:

He has obviously been struck by injuries but the 5 year stretch that Chase Utley was coming off of with the Phillies was remarkably similar to the one Robinson Cano had just come off of with the Yankees. Utley had minor injury concerns and averaged 9 games per season fewer than Cano in that span but was still a phenomenal player, just as Cano has been.

Kind of worrisome thinking this could be our $24m a year investment in 5 years.

 

[NWinAZ]

I like the fact we got Cano, but by no means have I ever thought he would be the huge difference maker that $240M should bring you. Pedroia for me is the best 2B in the game and is a bigger difference maker, but of course he wasn't available. I looked at what Cano did last year with less talent around him and he didn't make them a championship caliber team. As you see, guys like Utley were just as good. Pedroia maybe a bit better. Interesting to see how Phillips or Kipnis or Kinsler compared as well.

I hate to say we overpaid for anyone because for me overpay is measured by what we spent as a total vs a particular players salary. If we pay him all that and nobody else anything, then we overpaid. If he is 20% +/- or less of total payroll, then no we didn't overpay. How he performs after contract for me has nothing to do with it. That is just the chance you take and you have to take chances to win.

 

[NWinAZ]

2009-2013 WAR for 2B:

1- Zobrist 29.7
2- Cano 29.4
3- Pedroia 25.2
4- Utley 23.9
5- Kinsler 20.5
6- Phillips 18.7

Interesting at least for me.

 

[NWinAZ]

So if I read this right, Cano is worth just under 11 wins vs Phillips over a 5 year span for about 2 wins more per season.? If that is correct, trading for Phillips who they wanted to dump sounds like the better deal.

 

[seahawksfan234]

So if I read this right, Cano is worth just under 11 wins vs Phillips over a 5 year span for about 2 wins more per season.? If that is correct, trading for Phillips who they wanted to dump sounds like the better deal.

According to Baseball-Reference Brandon Phillips' WAR has dropped each of the past three years:
2011: 4.9
2012: 3.8
2013: 1.6

I still believe that Cano is the best 2B in baseball, I would take him over Pedroia in an instant. Dustin Pedroia is a great 2B don't get me wrong but I just don't think of him as the impact bat that Robinson Cano is.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I like the fact we got Cano, but by no means have I ever thought he would be the huge difference maker that $240M should bring you. Pedroia for me is the best 2B in the game and is a bigger difference maker, but of course he wasn't available. I looked at what Cano did last year with less talent around him and he didn't make them a championship caliber team. As you see, guys like Utley were just as good. Pedroia maybe a bit better. Interesting to see how Phillips or Kipnis or Kinsler compared as well.

I hate to say we overpaid for anyone because for me overpay is measured by what we spent as a total vs a particular players salary. If we pay him all that and nobody else anything, then we overpaid. If he is 20% +/- or less of total payroll, then no we didn't overpay. How he performs after contract for me has nothing to do with it. That is just the chance you take and you have to take chances to win.

For me the biggest concern is that he possibly drops off. If he continues to be a .310 avg 25+ HR hitter for at least 4-5 years it is not a concern but I just look at the drop off experienced by other 2B at Cano's age and get concerned.

To play devil's advocate though, Utley had minor injury concerns before his drop off. The last time Cano did not play 159 or more games in a season was in 2006.

If the Mariners are lucky, Robinson Cano from 31-40 performs like Jeff Kent. The Mariners could use some luck for once...

 

[wazzu31]

For me the biggest concern is that he possibly drops off. If he continues to be a .310 avg 25+ HR hitter for at least 4-5 years it is not a concern but I just look at the drop off experienced by other 2B at Cano's age and get concerned.

To play devil's advocate though, Utley had minor injury concerns before his drop off. The last time Cano did not play 159 or more games in a season was in 2006.

If the Mariners are lucky, Robinson Cano from 31-40 performs like Jeff Kent. The Mariners could use some luck for once...

I think everyone agrees that there is concern but as for drop offs I think production drop off is more due to injuries and players around the individual getting old too. Cano is about 5 years from worrying about his skills diminishing, but if they don't develop talent around him then his production will drop in my opinion.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I think everyone agrees that there is concern but as for drop offs I think production drop off is more due to injuries and players around the individual getting old too. Cano is about 5 years from worrying about his skills diminishing, but if they don't develop talent around him then his production will drop in my opinion.

Since he was 30, Chase Utley's BA has dropped 30 points.

Chase Utley from 26-30 BA: .301
Chase Utley from 31-34 BA: .270

He has had injuries but his play even when he is healthy has dropped off. Hope you're right. Some players age better than others, which makes it difficult to determine how he will perform during the duration of his contract. Hopefully he ages like Jeff Kent and not Chase Utley.

 

[NWinAZ]

On Fangraghs they have a couple different prediction methods and here is what they have for Cano:

Steamer: 23/90/.292 5.2 WAR
Oliver: 19/81/.296 4.5 WAR

So they both feel like a bit f a drop off is coming which is probably Safeco related.

 

[NWinAZ]

Regarding Phillips; This is where I like old stats better than new stats. In 2011 he had his best WAR at 5.6. In 2013 he had a 2.6 WAR. But for me he went from 82 RBI's to 103 and that is what I think is more important. I know all his %'s went down in 2013 compared to 2011, but his production went up and my old school brain says production is what matters. I have yet to see a champion be decided by WAR or slg% or whatever. It is done by wins and you win by out scoring your opponent. I know I tend to live in the baseball dinosaur age.

 

[seahawksfan234]

On Fangraghs they have a couple different prediction methods and here is what they have for Cano:

Steamer: 23/90/.292 5.2 WAR
Oliver: 19/81/.296 4.5 WAR

So they both feel like a bit f a drop off is coming which is probably Safeco related.

I think his power numbers will see a slight dip but I don't see that his BA will drop that far.

He had a career .305 BA at Yankee stadium and a career .312 BA on the road. In 40 career games he has a .309 BA at Safeco. I would be surprised if he went below .300 this year.

Plus one thing they did not account for was that his OBP will likely see a strong bump. Pitchers will likely try to pitch around him more now that he does not have the protection he did with the Yankees.

If I had to make a prediction I'd say: 25 HR 95 RBI .305 BA.

 

[NWinAZ]

2013:
Cano 81R + 107RBI - 27 HR = 161 Runs Produced
Phillips 80R + 103RBI - 18 HR = 165 Runs Produced

Again, old school.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Regarding Phillips; This is where I like old stats better than new stats. In 2011 he had his best WAR at 5.6. In 2013 he had a 2.6 WAR. But for me he went from 82 RBI's to 103 and that is what I think is more important. I know all his %'s went down in 2013 compared to 2011, but his production went up and my old school brain says production is what matters. I have yet to see a champion be decided by WAR or slg% or whatever. It is done by wins and you win by out scoring your opponent. I know I tend to live in the baseball dinosaur age.

RBI can be a fickle stat. Something interesting I noticed looking at Brandon Phillips stats is that he hit a lot better with runners in scoring position than he did in years prior. In 160 ABs with RISP he hit .338 during 2013. With runners on base he hit .307. But with nobody on base he hit a paltry .213.

For his career he is a .284 RISP hitter, .264 with nobody on. That is a difference of .20, in comparison to his massive .125 point difference in 2013.

That is a huge gap. I can't imagine he replicates it next year. Such a difference is incredible actually, I would have to assume he regresses back to >80 RBI next year.

I do understand your logic and see what you mean though.

 

[NWinAZ]

Plus one thing they did not account for was that his OBP will likely see a strong bump. Pitchers will likely try to pitch around him more now that he does not have the protection he did with the Yankees.

I agree with that. Of course, every time they walk him that is a loss in production for the $240M man. That would be okay if we had a big stud knocking him in at a high percentage. So basically the benefit of our $240M man comes down to our $6M rental.

 

[seahawksfan234]

2013:
Cano 81R + 107RBI - 27 HR = 161 Runs Produced
Phillips 80R + 103RBI - 18 HR = 165 Runs Produced

Again, old school.

But as I mentioned in my other post, Phillips was anemic without any runners on. The Mariners struggled to get guys on base. Take those two together and you don't have a very good combination.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I agree with that. Of course, every time they walk him that is a loss in production for the $240M man. That would be okay if we had a big stud knocking him in at a high percentage. So basically the benefit of our $240M man comes down to our $6M rental.

IMO a walk is almost as good as a single, I tend to favor OBP over BA. I don't see it as a loss in production at all. But as you said, it does mean we have to have someone knock him in.

This may be a figment of my imagination but I could have sworn there were numerous times the Mariners had HRs or extra base hits with nobody on.

 

[seahawksfan234]

In my search to find the Mariners splits on extra base hits I noticed this:

As you can see, aside from catcher 2B was the Mariners worst position offensively last year. At least the Mariners spent their $240m on the right position.

 

[NWinAZ]

IMO a walk is almost as good as a single, I tend to favor OBP over BA. I don't see it as a loss in production at all. But as you said, it does mean we have to have someone knock him in.

This may be a figment of my imagination but I could have sworn there were numerous times the Mariners had HRs or extra base hits with nobody on.

I view OBP and BA as more important based on what type of hitter you are. You take Edgar and I want him hitting and not walking because he runs slow and is great at driving in runs. You take a guy like Vince Coleman and you want him on as much as possible because he wins with his legs.

So in Cano's case, I think a walk is a lost AB to a point because he needs to be a run producer for M's and not a high OBP guy if you had to pick one. Maybe I am miss understanding Cano's need to the team and if he is needed more for getting on base instead of driving runs in, then I believe the OBP is more important.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I view OBP and BA as more important based on what type of hitter you are. You take Edgar and I want him hitting and not walking because he runs slow and is great at driving in runs. You take a guy like Vince Coleman and you want him on as much as possible because he wins with his legs.

So in Cano's case, I think a walk is a lost AB to a point because he needs to be a run producer for M's and not a high OBP guy if you had to pick one. Maybe I am miss understanding Cano's need to the team and if he is needed more for getting on base instead of driving runs in, then I believe the OBP is more important.

True but there still is value in OBP. With all the games the Mariners lost by 1 run, getting him on base could really help. I don't think the Mariners had anyone with an OBP over .340 last year.

Plus getting him on base helps the guys behind him. If Seager, Smoak, Hart etc. start getting pitches they can hit it benefits the entire team.