Playing the numbers game:AFC West versus the AFC South and NFC East

[Brees#1]

These numbers have been strong indicators of a team's record against the two divisions in each conference......
I will even do the last five years followed my 2013 record predictions for the three divisions including their own.

Denver against second AFC divisions
2008-1-3(only win at jets)
2009-2-2(wins at bengals and home against browns)
2010-2-2(wins at titans and home against texans)
2011-2-2(wins at dolphins and at home against jets)
2012-4-0
2013.....................................................................3-1, they will lose at the texans among the AFC South.

Denver against NFC divisions
2008-3-1(loss at panthers)
2009-2-2(wins at home against giants and cowboys)
2010-1-3(win against seahawks at home)
2011-2-2(wins at home against bears and at vikings)
2012-3-1(loss at falcons)
2013.....................................................................4-0, the upward pattern continues and I see them sweeping the NFC East. When they go to Dallas week 5, they will be undefeated I think and Dallas will be 3-1. I think Denver will beat the giants and at home they should beat eagles and redskins.

Denver against their own division
2008-3-3
2009-3-3
2010-1-5
2011-3-3
2012-6-0
2013...........................................................................4-2. Its important for Denver to not show their cards to a potentially wild card team who could play them a third time. And even if Denver did sweep San Diego they would have no reason to win in Oakland the last game. And because of the time frame of the matchups, they will surely split with KC.
Denver's record pending their two remaining swing games...........11-3. But I think they win the opener and they will win in Foxborough. 13-3 final record.

San Diego coming up..........................................

 

[TDs3nOut]

Seems to me like kind of a round about way to about predict Denver's schedule. Hard for me to imagine that data from when Shanahan and McDaniels were still the head coaches is very informative about the upcoming season.

 

[Brees#1]

San Diego against the other AFC divisions
2008-2-2(wins at home against pats and jets)
2009-2-2(wins at browns and at home against bengals)
2010-4-0
2011-2-2(wins at home against dolphins and bills)
2012-1-3(wins at steelers)
2013.......................................................................4-0. I thought on this, I know SD may not be completely turned around but their defense is solid and this is the worst division in the league defensively. Jacksonville is not gonna beat them even on a short week, Tennessee hasnt beaten them in a long time, and both the texans and colts go there in primetime and for texans, the smarter team, a late west coast game. I really believe they sweep this division.

San Diego against the NFC divisions
2008-1-3(wins at bucs)
2009-4-0
2010-2-2
2011-1-3(wins against vikings)
2012-0-4
2013......................................................................3-1. Not 4-0 unless they beat eagles who may gear up for chiefs game. But not sure if that happens so I'm giving SD a loss at eagles week 2. They will have superior record going to redskins and cowboys and giants are going there. Giants late in season. Dallas I don't think will win in SD because both teams have uncertainty but Romo is someone who finds ways to lose road games.

San Diego against their own division
2008-5-1
2009-5-1
2010-3-3
2011-3-3
2012-4-2
2013.....................................................................4-2. They lose to Denver once and they have matched up too well against KC I believe another sweep happens. They will split with raiders but should they lose both games to Denver, they will have to beat them week 16. i give them a better chance to win on the road than at home against them.

San Diego's record pending their remaining two swing games is, like Denver, 11-3. But San Diego loses at Miami and beats Cincinatti this time with more confidence(it was close last year with them not confident). 12-4, final record. I know Alexander is done for year, but they have Vincent Brown still who was a standout before his injury last preseason.

 

[Brees#1]

Oakland against the second AFC divisions
2008-1-3(wins against jets)
2009-2-2(wins at steelers and against bengals)
2010-0-4
2011-1-3(wins against jets)
2012-1-3(wins against steelers)
2013......................................................................1-3. They are 0-8 last two seasons in which they have played the AFC South but they should be able to pull out one of the home wins against the jags or titans. I can't decide which one yet but believe after the close game last year, jags might get them.

Oakland against the NFC divisions
2008-1-3(wins at bucs)
2009-1-3(wins against eagles)
2010-2-2(wins against seahawks and rams)
2011-2-2(wins at vikings and against bears)
2012-0-4
2013...............................................................1-3. Raiders havent gone 3-1 or 4-0 against any division since the re-alignment so 2-2 is their cut off point until they improve. 1-3 I give them I think they win at home against Philadelphia week 9. Eagles I think will be using this as a warm up game for the packers. And they lost last time they went there when the raiders were worse and the eagles still will not be as good as then if they improve, which I think they will.

Oakland against their own division
2008-2-4
2009-2-4
2010-6-0
2011-3-3
2012-1-5
2013...........................................................................2-4. They will win one of the last two division games either at SD or against Denver. Chances are SD will get complacent or Denver will have nothing to really play for. They will split however with KC and continue the road win trend. This time, KC wins in Oakland. Thei numbers are all over the place however so you just have to base it on how the two superior team's schedule pans out.

Oakland's record minus the swing games is 3-10. I think among the swing games they lose at the jets but will beat Pittsburgh again at home. 4-12, final record.

 

[Brees#1]

Kansas City against the second AFC divisions
2008-0-4
2009-1-3(wins against steelers)
2010-2-2(wins against titans and jaguars)
2011-0-4
2012-0-4
2013..................................................................1-3. After Vermeil KC's AFC record has been cut short, they've had more success against the NFC and have not gone no better than 2-2 against a AFC division since 2005. They have not won at all on the road against either two matchups since 2005 and they get the titans and jags at the wrong time, a season opener and a third end of a three game home stand. I think they pull out a surprise win against the texans.

Kansas City against the NFC divisions
2008-0-4
2009-1-3(won at redskins)
2010-4-0
2011-3-1(lost at lions)
2012-2-2(won at saints and against panthers)
2013......................................................................1-3. They win at Philadelphia week 3 in a Reid/Eagles showdown. But cowboys and giants are too much even at home for them to win as well as going to Washington in December when redskins will be fighting for their season.

Kansas City against their own division
2008-2-4
2009-2-4
2010-2-4
2011-3-3
2012-0-6
2013...................................................................2-4. Numbers say 1-3 but with Denver twice in three weeks they win one of them and highly unlikely they get swept again by the raiders.

Kansas City goes 4-10 minus swing games. They will beat the browns week 8 but lose at the bills. 5-11, final record. Its not easy to improve with a schedule like that.

And correction, Oakland is 5-11 as well I miscounted a win by mistake.

 

[Brees#1]

Denver 13-3
San Diego 12-4
Oakland 5-11
Kansas City 5-11

Oakland's win against Pittsburgh puts them over KC in fifth tiebreaker(Strength of victory)

This is just numbers based not how its going to play out.

 

[BobGnarly]

I would be shocked if the Chargers went 12-4 with the loss of DX/Ingram

 

[TDs3nOut]

I would be shocked if the Chargers went 12-4 with the loss of DX/Ingram

I will also be surprised if SD wins 12 games. Also think that KC has a pretty decent chance to finish second in the division.

 

[RonBorges]

These numbers have been strong indicators of a team's record against the two divisions in each conference......
I will even do the last five years followed my 2013 record predictions for the three divisions including their own.

Denver against second AFC divisions
2008-1-3(only win at jets)
2009-2-2(wins at bengals and home against browns)
2010-2-2(wins at titans and home against texans)
2011-2-2(wins at dolphins and at home against jets)
2012-4-0
2013.....................................................................3-1, they will lose at the texans among the AFC South.

Denver against NFC divisions
2008-3-1(loss at panthers)
2009-2-2(wins at home against giants and cowboys)
2010-1-3(win against seahawks at home)
2011-2-2(wins at home against bears and at vikings)
2012-3-1(loss at falcons)
2013.....................................................................4-0, the upward pattern continues and I see them sweeping the NFC East. When they go to Dallas week 5, they will be undefeated I think and Dallas will be 3-1. I think Denver will beat the giants and at home they should beat eagles and redskins.

Denver against their own division
2008-3-3
2009-3-3
2010-1-5
2011-3-3
2012-6-0
2013...........................................................................4-2. Its important for Denver to not show their cards to a potentially wild card team who could play them a third time. And even if Denver did sweep San Diego they would have no reason to win in Oakland the last game. And because of the time frame of the matchups, they will surely split with KC.
Denver's record pending their two remaining swing games...........11-3. But I think they win the opener and they will win in Foxborough. 13-3 final record.

San Diego coming up..........................................

Denver sweeping the NFC East? You could win or lose alot of money on that bet.

Personally, I think you would lose.

 

[boltfan72]

SD winning 12 games would be a shock. Ten would be considered an overwhelming success.

 

[Brees#1]

When Peyton Manning was with the colts he hardly lost at home to NFC teams. he lost at home to two in his final three years.............the bears and cowboys. Both at the wrong times too as Indy was dealing with a losing streak in one and in the prior one Manning had just came off of knee surgery and was not playing so great.


Most of the teams SD plays have flaws themselves I can count about ten games where the giants, cowboys found ways to lose the last few years. Or how often redskins have underachieved. The titans and jags lacking serious balance, the colts who played over their heads against barely .500 or worse teams and no blowouts at all but the putrid jaguars. Yeah SD has a shot if their o-line has improved, thats all that needs to really improve for Rivers to bounce back, not having Alexander healthy. They're losable, but also winnable. Their defense was solid last year, losing Ingram who was a rookie last year is not a big hit.

I think people pick SD to lose because they aren't a sexy team. idk why I just think that. But the schedule is full of teams with egos, serious imbalances, and flaws.

 

[boltfan72]

When Peyton Manning was with the colts he hardly lost at home to NFC teams. he lost at home to two in his final three years.............the bears and cowboys. Both at the wrong times too as Indy was dealing with a losing streak in one and in the prior one Manning had just came off of knee surgery and was not playing so great.


Most of the teams SD plays have flaws themselves I can count about ten games where the giants, cowboys found ways to lose the last few years. Or how often redskins have underachieved. The titans and jags lacking serious balance, the colts who played over their heads against barely .500 or worse teams and no blowouts at all but the putrid jaguars. Yeah SD has a shot if their o-line has improved, thats all that needs to really improve for Rivers to bounce back, not having Alexander healthy. They're losable, but also winnable. Their defense was solid last year, losing Ingram who was a rookie last year is not a big hit.

I think people pick SD to lose because they aren't a sexy team. idk why I just think that. But the schedule is full of teams with egos, serious imbalances, and flaws.

SD is probably the single biggest underachiever in the NFL the past 10 years. Yeah it could change, but until it does nobody will buy into them. Just remember how many so called "experts" were predicting the Chiefs would win the division last year. Hell I thought they had a chance.

That's the beauty of the NFL... totally unpredictable.

 

[Brees#1]

San Diego against the other AFC divisions
2008-2-2(wins at home against pats and jets)
2009-2-2(wins at browns and at home against bengals)
2010-4-0
2011-2-2(wins at home against dolphins and bills)
2012-1-3(wins at steelers)
2013.......................................................................3-1. I thought on this, I know SD may not be completely turned around but their defense is solid and this is the worst division in the league defensively. Jacksonville is not gonna beat them even on a short week, Tennessee hasnt beaten them in a long time, and both the texans and colts go there in primetime and for texans, the smarter team, a late west coast game. I think they can win one of those and it will be the colts.

San Diego against the NFC divisions
2008-1-3(wins at bucs)
2009-4-0
2010-2-2
2011-1-3(wins against vikings)
2012-0-4
2013......................................................................3-1. Not 4-0 unless they beat eagles who may gear up for chiefs game. But not sure if that happens so I'm giving SD a loss at eagles week 2. They will have superior record going to redskins and cowboys and giants are going there. Giants late in season. Dallas I don't think will win in SD because both teams have uncertainty but Romo is someone who finds ways to lose road games.

San Diego against their own division
2008-5-1
2009-5-1
2010-3-3
2011-3-3
2012-4-2
2013.....................................................................4-2. They lose to Denver once and they have matched up too well against KC I believe another sweep happens. They will split with raiders but should they lose both games to Denver, they will have to beat them week 16. i give them a better chance to win on the road than at home against them.

San Diego's record pending their remaining two swing games is 10-4. But San Diego loses at Miami and beats Cincinatti this time with more confidence(it was close last year with them not confident). 11-5, final record. I know Alexander is done for year, but they have Vincent Brown still who was a standout before his injury last preseason.

Updated in bold. I still believe they can win against the underperforming NFC East and the three in the AFC South that are not the elite teams.

 

[Brees#1]

Kansas City against the second AFC divisions
2008-0-4
2009-1-3(wins against steelers)
2010-2-2(wins against titans and jaguars)
2011-0-4
2012-0-4
2013..................................................................1-3. After Vermeil KC's AFC record has been cut short, they've had more success against the NFC and have not gone no better than 2-2 against a AFC division since 2005. They have not won at all on the road against either two matchups since 2005 and they get the titans and jags at the wrong time, a season opener and a third end of a three game home stand. I think they beat the colts.

Kansas City against the NFC divisions
2008-0-4
2009-1-3(won at redskins)
2010-4-0
2011-3-1(lost at lions)
2012-2-2(won at saints and against panthers)
2013......................................................................1-3. They win at Philadelphia week 3 in a Reid/Eagles showdown. But cowboys and giants are too much even at home for them to win as well as going to Washington in December when redskins will be fighting for their season.

Kansas City against their own division
2008-2-4
2009-2-4
2010-2-4
2011-3-3
2012-0-6
2013...................................................................3-3. Numbers say 1-3 but with Denver twice in three weeks they win one of them and highly unlikely they get swept again by the raiders. In fact, I think after Oakland swept last year its KC's turn to sweep back. I think though they don't match up against chargers.

Kansas City goes 6-8 minus swing games. They will beat the browns week 8 but lose at the bills. 7-9, final record. Its not easy to improve with a schedule like that.

Updated in bold

 

[Brees#1]

Oakland against the second AFC divisions
2008-1-3(wins against jets)
2009-2-2(wins at steelers and against bengals)
2010-0-4
2011-1-3(wins against jets)
2012-1-3(wins against steelers)
2013......................................................................1-3. They are 0-8 last two seasons in which they have played the AFC South but they should be able to pull out one of the home wins against the jags or titans. I can't decide which one yet but believe after the close game last year, jags might get them.

Oakland against the NFC divisions
2008-1-3(wins at bucs)
2009-1-3(wins against eagles)
2010-2-2(wins against seahawks and rams)
2011-2-2(wins at vikings and against bears)
2012-0-4
2013...............................................................1-3. Raiders havent gone 3-1 or 4-0 against any division since the re-alignment so 2-2 is their cut off point until they improve. 1-3 I give them I think they win at home against Philadelphia week 9. Eagles I think will be using this as a warm up game for the packers. And they lost last time they went there when the raiders were worse and the eagles still will not be as good as then if they improve, which I think they will.

Oakland against their own division
2008-2-4
2009-2-4
2010-6-0
2011-3-3
2012-1-5
2013...........................................................................1-5 again. They will win one of the last two division games either at SD or against Denver. Chances are SD will get complacent or Denver will have nothing to really play for. I think KC gets back at them winning both matchups.

Oakland's record minus the swing games is 3-11. I think among the swing games they lose at the jets but will beat Pittsburgh again at home. 4-12, final record.

Updated in bold. After seeing what I saw in first teams, I think KC gets back at them.

 

[Brees#1]

Denver 13-3
San Diego 11-5
Kansas City 7-9
Oakland 4-12



This is just numbers based not how its going to play out.

Updated in bold.

 

[boltfan72]

Updated in bold.

The order of finish looks good. The records are still a little out of whack. I think both KC and SD will win between 7-9 games. I also think the Broncos might struggle out of the gate with the two guys responsible for more than half their sacks last year out. One for 6 games and one gone to the Ravens. Their O-line has had some major injury issues as well.

If there was one surefire bet right now in the NFL it's the Raiders getting next year's #1 overall pick in the draft.

 

[Brees#1]

The order of finish looks good. The records are still a little out of whack. I think both KC and SD will win between 7-9 games. I also think the Broncos might struggle out of the gate with the two guys responsible for more than half their sacks last year out. One for 6 games and one gone to the Ravens. Their O-line has had some major injury issues as well.

If there was one surefire bet right now in the NFL it's the Raiders getting next year's #1 overall pick in the draft.

I have made more changes.

 

[Brees#1]

New revisions..................
Denver 12-4
San Diego 11-5
Kansas City 7-9
Oakland 3-13

Denver now I think loses at Dallas.
San Diego I switched the eagles/redskins win/loss and switched Oakland/KC's win/loss as well.
KC I took away eagles win and gave them Dallas and San Diego.
Oakland I took away San Diego.

Denver's NFC record last five years and this-3-1, 2-2, 1-3, 2-2, 3-1--3-1
Denver's AFC record last five years and this-1-3, 2-2, 2-2, 2-2, 4-0--3-1
Denver's division record last five years and this-3-3, 3-3, 1-5, 3-3, 6-0--4-2
San Diego's NFC record last five years and this-1-3, 4-0, 2-2, 1-3, 0-4--3-1
San Diego's AFC record last five years and this-2-2, 2-2, 4-0, 2-2, 1-3--3-1
San Diego's division record last five years and this-5-1, 5-1, 3-3, 3-3, 4-2--4-2
Kansas City's AFC record last five years and this-0-4, 1-3, 2-2, 0-4, 0-4--1-3
Kansas City's NFC record last five years and this-0-4, 1-3, 4-0, 3-1, 2-2--1-3
Kansas City's division record last five years and this-2-4, 2-4, 2-4, 3-3, 0-6--4-2
Oakland's AFC record last five years and this-1-3, 2-2, 0-4, 1-3, 1-3--1-3
Oakland's NFC record last five years and this-1-3, 1-3, 2-2, 2-2, 0-4--1-3
Oakland's division record last five years and this-2-4, 2-4, 6-0, 3-3, 2-4--0-6

And the numbers make more sense. And I just cannot pick a team like KC to improve that much because I honestly don't buy into Smith and question Bowe(he only produced in garbage time) and that defense can only do so much against top tier offenses.

I'll do these slowly. I have a week and a half left before the season starts.