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Wildcatsfan1
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As another off season of College Football material kicks off, this year marks the third year I’ll throw my hat in the ring and look at a number of topics and categories. In the process I’ll look to do everything from predicting next year’s 25 best teams, identify the games of the year, narrow down the Heisman field, identify those replacing 2012′s stars and ultimately make predictions for each league, culminating in a national championship pick. They’ll be many things I’ll be ridiculed for. There will be a number of things that will surprise some people. Ultimately you’ll come away from the next 6 months of material as ready for the college football season as I can possibly make you. While I’ll be sure to miss on things I would like to remind the skeptics I did correctly predict the same number of bowl teams preseason as Phil Steele a year ago as well as top him in BCS Bowl participants predicted before the year. Nonetheless I’m not putting out any magazines soon so keep buying his for the top preseason coverage available.
The key in any top 25 poll is understanding the premise on which the poll is based because not all top 25 polls are built the same way. Some people choose to rank teams 1-25 based on where they think teams will be ranked at year’s end. If they think a team will lose 5 games they won’t rank them. While that may seem logical I’ve never been a proponent of that style of poll and it has never been, nor will ever be, how I choose to do my top 25 polls. My polls reflect the 25 teams entering 2013 who I think are the top 25 teams on a neutral field if the country played a round-robin. If a team is likely to max out at 7 wins that doesn’t give me the urge to rank a nine-win team over them if the nine-win team is from a much weaker league. With that covered, let us continue the top 25 for 2013 as the official kickoff of the off season coverage here at The Sports Headquarters.
Returning Starters Figures from Phil Steele’s Blog
Teams already ranked:
#25. Fresno State Bulldogs
#24 Vanderbilt Commodores
#23 USC Trojans
#22 Miami Hurricanes
#21 Ole Miss Rebels
#20 Boise State Broncos
#19 Wisconsin Badgers
#18 Oklahoma Sooners
#17 Florida State Seminoles
#16 Northwestern Wildcats
#15 Oklahoma State Cowboys
#14 Louisville Cardinals
#13 Florida Gators
#12 TCU Horned Frogs
#11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
#10 LSU Tigers
#9 Clemson Tigers
#8 South Carolina Gamecocks
Coming in at #7
Texas Longhorns
2012 Record: 9-4
Conference Finish: Tied for 3rd (Won tiebreaker over Oklahoma State)
Bowl: Won Alamo Bowl 31-27 over Oregon State
2013 Returning Starters: 10 offense, 9 defense
2013 Offense
I was pretty high on Texas last season, selecting them to be an at-large recipient for a BCS Bowl in the preseason. While the Longhorns didn’t match those expectations, with 19 returning starters, I’m surely not backing off the train in 2013. Using Phil Steele’s returning figures for each of the three seasons I’ve done this exercise, one thing that has proven consistent is the success of some teams with the top returning starter rates. Last year UTSA, Ohio St, Kansas St and Florida were a few examples. In 2011 Vanderbilt and Michigan were the top two. Texas has as many returning starters as anyone in the country in 2013 and despite a number of flaws a season ago finished 9-4. If they can tweak a few of those things in a favorable way, they can win the Big 12 in 2013 which lacks a truly dominant team. Perhaps as big as anything on offense is the quarterback position. David Ash spent most of last season as the starter but really never did anything to definitively rule out Case McCoy which led in part in McCoy starting the last game. The spring game showed mixed reviews of Ash who started strong with a couple early touchdown tosses before two interceptions reminded some of the sporadic Ash from 2013. The Longhorns plan to feature a more up-tempo attack in 2013 and many feel it will play to Ash’s strengths. Get the quarterback position right and this offense has legitimate potential. Tyrone Swoopes is a name to watch after his showing in the spring game with some elusive play-making ability and even the praises of Mack Brown. The freshman could be a wild card at the position in 2013.
The running backs are a deep personnel group that has to have people excited. Johnathan Gray was a highly touted recruit a season ago and had a respectable freshman season with 701 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. He was especially featured in a lot of Wildcat packages (about 99% of which he seemed to keep the ball) and could be in line for a breakout 2013. Joe Bergeron returns for his junior season after being a touchdown thief a season ago with 16 scores, representing Texas’ biggest weapon in the backfield inside the red zone. At 6’1, 240 lbs Bergeron likely will again see similar touches inside the 20 and has a good chance again to lead Longhorns backs in touchdowns. Malcolm Brown represents the third back who was featured quite a bit a season ago and while he still sits behind the other two is a third weapon most teams don’t possess. Central Florida had three backs a season ago who I liked a lot and this backfield reminds me of another version of that. If the passing game becomes a big enough weapon to draw significant defensive attention, I’d be very scared of this backfield.
The wide receiver position truly lacked a third target a season ago after Jaxon Shipley and Mike Davis. In fact the only other player on the roster who had more than 20 catches a season ago (Marquise Goodwin) is gone leaving some question marks at that position. Between Davis and Shipley the Longhorns have two safety nets that can make plays down field as well as over the middle. The tight end position was relatively underutilized last year with the leading pass catcher at the position D.J Grant only catching 14 passes. As August/September roll around, look to see if a third guy emerges as the rest of the receivers and tight ends on the spring roster lack the proven production to be handed the job. Between many freshman and sophomores, offensive coordinator Major Applewhite feels pretty good a reliable weapon will emerge.
The entire offensive line returns this year and all will be juniors or seniors giving Texas a very experienced front five that could be a major key to the 2013 offense. The line last year was exceptional allowing the third fewest tackles for a loss per game in the country as well as ranking very well nationally in sacks allowed. Slightly under 50% of their red zone touchdowns came on the ground as well showing the Longhorns ability to drive the defense back and punch the ball in for six. With another year of experience, this line has the ability to make things very easy for the quarterback and running game.
Rest can be seen here: 2013 CFB top 25
The key in any top 25 poll is understanding the premise on which the poll is based because not all top 25 polls are built the same way. Some people choose to rank teams 1-25 based on where they think teams will be ranked at year’s end. If they think a team will lose 5 games they won’t rank them. While that may seem logical I’ve never been a proponent of that style of poll and it has never been, nor will ever be, how I choose to do my top 25 polls. My polls reflect the 25 teams entering 2013 who I think are the top 25 teams on a neutral field if the country played a round-robin. If a team is likely to max out at 7 wins that doesn’t give me the urge to rank a nine-win team over them if the nine-win team is from a much weaker league. With that covered, let us continue the top 25 for 2013 as the official kickoff of the off season coverage here at The Sports Headquarters.
Returning Starters Figures from Phil Steele’s Blog
Teams already ranked:
#25. Fresno State Bulldogs
#24 Vanderbilt Commodores
#23 USC Trojans
#22 Miami Hurricanes
#21 Ole Miss Rebels
#20 Boise State Broncos
#19 Wisconsin Badgers
#18 Oklahoma Sooners
#17 Florida State Seminoles
#16 Northwestern Wildcats
#15 Oklahoma State Cowboys
#14 Louisville Cardinals
#13 Florida Gators
#12 TCU Horned Frogs
#11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
#10 LSU Tigers
#9 Clemson Tigers
#8 South Carolina Gamecocks
Coming in at #7
Texas Longhorns
2012 Record: 9-4
Conference Finish: Tied for 3rd (Won tiebreaker over Oklahoma State)
Bowl: Won Alamo Bowl 31-27 over Oregon State
2013 Returning Starters: 10 offense, 9 defense
2013 Offense
I was pretty high on Texas last season, selecting them to be an at-large recipient for a BCS Bowl in the preseason. While the Longhorns didn’t match those expectations, with 19 returning starters, I’m surely not backing off the train in 2013. Using Phil Steele’s returning figures for each of the three seasons I’ve done this exercise, one thing that has proven consistent is the success of some teams with the top returning starter rates. Last year UTSA, Ohio St, Kansas St and Florida were a few examples. In 2011 Vanderbilt and Michigan were the top two. Texas has as many returning starters as anyone in the country in 2013 and despite a number of flaws a season ago finished 9-4. If they can tweak a few of those things in a favorable way, they can win the Big 12 in 2013 which lacks a truly dominant team. Perhaps as big as anything on offense is the quarterback position. David Ash spent most of last season as the starter but really never did anything to definitively rule out Case McCoy which led in part in McCoy starting the last game. The spring game showed mixed reviews of Ash who started strong with a couple early touchdown tosses before two interceptions reminded some of the sporadic Ash from 2013. The Longhorns plan to feature a more up-tempo attack in 2013 and many feel it will play to Ash’s strengths. Get the quarterback position right and this offense has legitimate potential. Tyrone Swoopes is a name to watch after his showing in the spring game with some elusive play-making ability and even the praises of Mack Brown. The freshman could be a wild card at the position in 2013.
The running backs are a deep personnel group that has to have people excited. Johnathan Gray was a highly touted recruit a season ago and had a respectable freshman season with 701 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. He was especially featured in a lot of Wildcat packages (about 99% of which he seemed to keep the ball) and could be in line for a breakout 2013. Joe Bergeron returns for his junior season after being a touchdown thief a season ago with 16 scores, representing Texas’ biggest weapon in the backfield inside the red zone. At 6’1, 240 lbs Bergeron likely will again see similar touches inside the 20 and has a good chance again to lead Longhorns backs in touchdowns. Malcolm Brown represents the third back who was featured quite a bit a season ago and while he still sits behind the other two is a third weapon most teams don’t possess. Central Florida had three backs a season ago who I liked a lot and this backfield reminds me of another version of that. If the passing game becomes a big enough weapon to draw significant defensive attention, I’d be very scared of this backfield.
The wide receiver position truly lacked a third target a season ago after Jaxon Shipley and Mike Davis. In fact the only other player on the roster who had more than 20 catches a season ago (Marquise Goodwin) is gone leaving some question marks at that position. Between Davis and Shipley the Longhorns have two safety nets that can make plays down field as well as over the middle. The tight end position was relatively underutilized last year with the leading pass catcher at the position D.J Grant only catching 14 passes. As August/September roll around, look to see if a third guy emerges as the rest of the receivers and tight ends on the spring roster lack the proven production to be handed the job. Between many freshman and sophomores, offensive coordinator Major Applewhite feels pretty good a reliable weapon will emerge.
The entire offensive line returns this year and all will be juniors or seniors giving Texas a very experienced front five that could be a major key to the 2013 offense. The line last year was exceptional allowing the third fewest tackles for a loss per game in the country as well as ranking very well nationally in sacks allowed. Slightly under 50% of their red zone touchdowns came on the ground as well showing the Longhorns ability to drive the defense back and punch the ball in for six. With another year of experience, this line has the ability to make things very easy for the quarterback and running game.
Rest can be seen here: 2013 CFB top 25