2013-14 - Around the League Thread

[nuraman00]

 

[MHSL82]

Around the League Thread

To pass the time, I thought we could exchange teams, one at a time, to see what the other thinks about a specific team. Then, the other responds to the inquiry and passes on the next team. For example:

1: What do you think of the Brooklyn Nets?
2: I think that they are... What do you think about the Lakers?
1: I think... What about the Celtics...

And so on. I only propose this, because you seem to be on top of all teams, and I seem to have unfounded opinions based upon box scores.

I'll start.

 

[MHSL82]

The Knicks started out 6-0 and have since gone 14-7. I see them going 8-8 over the next 16 before a 9-2 stretch in February. 11-7 in March. 5-5 in April. 53-29 overall. I don't know where everyone else will be, but I assume that would be around third in the East - but I'm a pessimist, as I think they could be 1 or 2. I don't know how much it has affected them, but I have passively seen remarks on their injuries. (Big market, more reporting.)

I don't know enough about trades, but this was one thing I was interested in your input. I think Kidd is doing better in New York than Nash would have given their systems, but in their respective places, I think they'll fit for both their teams. I expect Kidd to have a better PER, but Nash's PER is artificially low - he'll pick it up by mid-season.

Carmelo and Stoudemire had problems with figuring out a good fit for their roles last year, but judging by their record, it's going well this year. I liked Jeremy Lin, but understand his contract issue (though anybody who is paid would have proportionally contributed to the luxury tax, not just Lin). I also know his tendencies, his going left aversion (though most do have a dominant side), etc.

What's your impressions on the Knicks this year?

 

[nuraman00]

I don't like looking ahead at schedules, in general.

Carmelo and Stoudemire haven't figured out how to play together this year. Stoudemire hasn't played a game yet due to knee surgery.

At the beginning of the year, I didn't like the Knicks offense. I still don't. I think Novak has just gotten off to a hot start. They are 2nd in ORTG, I'll say they'll drop below the top 6 by the end of the year.

Kidd doesn't play enough for me to have an opinion his game this year. Yes he averages 29 mpg, but Felton has been the lead initiator much of the time. I guess I can say he's playing more off the ball. I agree that Nash will have a better PER by the end of the year. Nash only played in 4 games so far, and that's too small of a sample size.

The first few weeks of the season, I still thought the Nets were better than the Knicks, despite the Knicks better record. Now, I'm not as sure, and that's because the Nets haven't played as well. But it's a long season, we'll see what happens.

I would watch the Knicks during the Christmas Day quintuple-header, but the matchup I'm least excited about is Lakers-Knicks. It may be on the TV in the background though. I'm more excited about the other four matchups, but I don't know which ones I'll get to see. I might record them, but even if I do, I don't know if I'll watch.

 

[MHSL82]

Giving up on the game, just going to discuss random thoughts about other teams and players.

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I can't get my insider to work right now, but if you have insider, could you tell me if this is fair? And if so, is it true?

NBA - Austin Rivers having the worst season ever? - ESPN

He's averaging 7.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, blocks and steals negligible, shoots 35.1% overall, 36.7 from the three point line, and 62.3% on free throws. Was this that bad? I know the 34.6 from inside the three point line is terrible, but since you are a historian of the game, is this eligible for the worst season ever, given expectations and draft status, surrounding team, etc.? Was this just a headline made for grabbing attention? Does it actually say it's not the worst season despite his numbers, telling a deeper story?

 

[nuraman00]

Giving up on the game, just going to discuss random thoughts about other teams and players.

Did I do something wrong?

Also, I'll get back to you on the insider part. I'll have someone send me the article.

 

[MHSL82]

Did I do something wrong?

Also, I'll get back to you on the insider part. I'll have someone send me the article.

Nope. I thought maybe you'd mention another team and your thoughts (after New York) - then I would say what I thought about that team and present another.

But really, I quit the game because the more I thought about it, the lamer the game sounded. So I just decided to start talking about random league stuff.

 

[nuraman00]

Nope. I thought maybe you'd mention another team and your thoughts (after New York) - then I would say what I thought about that team and present another.

But really, I quit the game because the more I thought about it, the lamer the game sounded. So I just decided to start talking about random league stuff.

It wasn't a lame game.

I just didn't feel like making a long post so soon. I didn't think this had to be continued within a short time period, such as 2 days.

I also though you might respond with your thoughts, and then suggest the next team.

 

[MHSL82]

It wasn't a lame game.

I just didn't feel like making a long post so soon. I didn't think this had to be continued within a short time period, such as 2 days.

I also though you might respond with your thoughts, and then suggest the next team.

Oh, ok. My apologies. Sometimes I don't feel like I'm very clear when I propose an idea and often, I view my ideas more negatively than I should. So I thought that either I wasn't clear or it was a lame game. I know how thorough you are in your posts, so I understand how responding can be burdensome quickly. If you'd like to, we can go onto to the next team, whenever you want; take your time, didn't mean to press.

 

[nuraman00]

Yeah, let's go onto the next team at some point.

It was also the holidays the past few days, so hence any post I made recently were probably short ones.

 

[nuraman00]

Someone needs to find this video of JR Swish dancing.

+++++++++++++++++++++


New York Knicks

99
Final
Recap | Box score
97
Phoenix Suns

Defining moment: After knocking down a game-tying jumper right in the grill of Suns stopper P.J. Tucker, J.R. Smith canned a buzzer-beating jumper in the corner to win the game for the Knicks in dramatic fashion. Smith celebrated with a quick salsa dance.

MVP: Jared Dudley torched the Knicks for a career-high 36 points for the star-less Suns, who had not received a 30-point game since March. Dudley hit 11 of 17 shots and canned two free throws to put the Suns up two with 34 seconds left.

X factor: Role players were forced to step up with the Knicks missing Carmelo Anthony (hyperextended knee) and Ray Felton (sprained finger). The Suns felt that pain in the second half without Goran Dragic, who took a hard tumble on a Smith flagrant foul.
-- Michael Schwartz, Valley of the Suns

 

[MHSL82]

Avery Johnson fired by Brooklyn Nets after starting 14-14

 

[nuraman00]

Let's see who they replace him with.

The Nets just didn't look fluid lately, but some of that was because of Lopez' injury.

 

[wildturkey]

Giving up on the game, just going to discuss random thoughts about other teams and players.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I can't get my insider to work right now, but if you have insider, could you tell me if this is fair? And if so, is it true?

NBA - Austin Rivers having the worst season ever? - ESPN

He's averaging 7.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, blocks and steals negligible, shoots 35.1% overall, 36.7 from the three point line, and 62.3% on free throws. Was this that bad? I know the 34.6 from inside the three point line is terrible, but since you are a historian of the game, is this eligible for the worst season ever, given expectations and draft status, surrounding team, etc.? Was this just a headline made for grabbing attention? Does it actually say it's not the worst season despite his numbers, telling a deeper story?

Sounds about right. I don't think he actually knows how to play basketball. He's just raw and his dad is Doc Rivers

 

[MHSL82]

Mike Dunlap of Charlotte Bobcats patient amid 16-game skid - ESPN

It's amazing how this team, who had two 16+ losing streaks last year, started 7-5 (6-4 for a better percentage) and then lost 16 and counting in a row. That matched their whole season last year. Maybe it wasn't the coach, but the team? Probably both. They don't have anyone I recognize that much besides Ben Gordon and Diop. I've heard of Walker, of course, but don't know much about him. They're so young.

Charlotte Bobcats 2013 Team Roster - ESPN

Spoelstra said that they would start winning the close games. I looked at their schedule this year and they're 5-5 in games decided by 3 or fewer (or OT). So 5 of their first 12 games (7 wins) were by 3 or fewer or in OT. One regulation win was by 4 points. They've had 5 blowouts (20+)(17.9%). I realize that sometimes, a team will make a 3 at the buzzer when they were down by six - so that technically wasn't a close game. Sometimes a blowout goes under 20 because of the opponent letting gas off the pedal, playing the bench, as long as they aren't Ginobili.

Just trying to figure out how this compares to last year. They were 2-5 games determined by 3 or fewer or in OT. They were blown out of 24 games last year (36.4%), by my count (which could be wrong because I quick counted it).

Charlotte Bobcats 2013 Schedule - Bobcats Home and Away - ESPN

 

[nuraman00]

Giving up on the game, just going to discuss random thoughts about other teams and players.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I can't get my insider to work right now, but if you have insider, could you tell me if this is fair? And if so, is it true?

NBA - Austin Rivers having the worst season ever? - ESPN

He's averaging 7.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, blocks and steals negligible, shoots 35.1% overall, 36.7 from the three point line, and 62.3% on free throws. Was this that bad? I know the 34.6 from inside the three point line is terrible, but since you are a historian of the game, is this eligible for the worst season ever, given expectations and draft status, surrounding team, etc.? Was this just a headline made for grabbing attention? Does it actually say it's not the worst season despite his numbers, telling a deeper story?

Austin Rivers: Worst season ever?
The 10th pick in last June's NBA draft, the rookie has put up subpar numbers
Originally Published: December 26, 2012
By Kevin Pelton | ESPN Insider

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Austin RiversCameron Browne/Getty ImagesAustin Rivers is averaging 7.8 points and 2.7 assists per game.




Thanks to the Chris Paul trade, the New Orleans Hornets joined the Portland Trail Blazers as one of two teams with a pair of picks in the lottery of last June's NBA draft. After taking Kentucky forward Anthony Davis No. 1 overall, the Hornets were also able to add another top one-and-done prospect, Duke guard Austin Rivers, with the 10th pick.


While Davis and Rivers were once considered perhaps the top two prospects in the country coming out of high school, they have had very different professional debuts. When healthy, Davis has lived up to the hype he generated as a National Player of the Year and national champion during his lone college season; he leads all rookies in PER. By contrast, Rivers has struggled with the transition to the NBA, in several ways -- that includes making only 34.6 percent of his shot attempts inside the 3-point line.


In fact, Rivers is on track to make dubious history during his rookie campaign. Two months into the season, Rivers projects to rate nearly seven wins worse than a replacement-level player by my player metric, which would be the worst WARP score in the 34 seasons on record, starting with 1979-80, the first NBA season with the 3-point line.


WORST WARP SCORES
Player Season Team Win % MPG WARP
Austin Rivers (projected) 2012-13 NOH .271 28.2 -6.9
Jason Collins 2006-07 NJN .250 23.1 -6.5
Adam Morrison 2006-07 CHA .300 29.9 -5.8
Michael Curry 2001-02 DET .273 23.3 -5.7
Desmond Mason 2006-07 NOH .313 34.3 -5.7
Desmond Mason 2005-06 NOH .292 30.1 -5.6
Trenton Hassell 2002-03 CHI .288 24.4 -5.3
Calbert Cheaney 2002-03 UTA .309 29.0 -5.3
Charlie Scott 1979-80 DEN .287 27.0 -5.2
Juwan Howard 1999-00 WAS .333 35.5 -5.2
Dickey Simpkins 1999-00 CHI .268 23.9 -5.2



WARP stands for Wins Above Replacement Player, because normally it is measuring a player's positive impact. But in the case of Rivers, it is measuring a player's negative impact on his team's efforts.



Like its baseball cousins, the various types of "WAR" that figured so prominently in this year's AL MVP debate, WARP is a value statistic that includes two components -- per-minute performance (measured by player win percentage) and minutes played. For players who rate better than replacement, more minutes translate into more value. That relationship flips for ineffective players such as Rivers, who play worse than the type of player a team could invite to training camp or call up from the D-League.


So a "replacement player" is what, exactly? It's the type of player who is easy to find when a team needs a replacement. To find a good example, look no further than Hornets guardBrian Roberts, who went undrafted out of Dayton before starring overseas and signing with the Hornets after a successful stint in summer league. Roberts has been far more effective than Rivers as both a scorer and distributor while making the NBA's minimum salary.


Of course, to build a historically negative WARP rating, a player has to be on the court in the first place. Most of the leaderboard is made up of defensive specialists whose value is not reflected by their individual statistics. Collins, for example, is one of the players most underrated by advanced box score stats.


Beyond that, the list is filled out by players who were overexposed on terrible teams and rookies whose potential demanded playing time that their performance did not yet justify. Rivers qualifies on both counts. With Eric Gordon out of the lineup, the 5-22 Hornets have few good alternatives in the backcourt despite Roberts' surprising performance. Backup wing Xavier Henry has been nearly as ineffective. The situation will change when Gordon returns to action after being cleared to practice over the weekend.


Still, Monty Williams will surely find regular playing time for Rivers, who appears to be a major part of New Orleans' future by virtue of the high pick the team used to draft him. Williams indicated as much to the New Orleans Times-Picayune earlier this month, saying, "I'm going to play him through his mistakes and it's going to help our program two or three years from now."


Because this Hornets season is going nowhere, the more important question is what Rivers' slow start says about his long-term development. Despite the cautionary example of Adam Morrison (see chart), the only rookie currently in the WARP bottom 10, a poor first season isn't necessarily a death knell for a player's career. Allan Houston, Chris Kaman and Glen Rice all developed into All-Stars after rating at least three wins below replacement as rookies. And none of those players was anywhere near as young or inexperienced as Rivers at the time.


Still, the more common outcome is that even those ineffective rookies who go on to long careers tend to never rate well statistically. Jeff Green, who had -4.1 WARP during his first season with the Seattle SuperSonics, is a good example. As much as young players tend to improve, the shape of their performance usually doesn't change, and Rivers' volume shooting has always played better among scouts than by the numbers.


Furthermore, the troubling aspect of Rivers' play this season is that it can't really be called a fluke. In fact, his per-minute win percentage (.271) is nearly exactly what his translated college stat line indicated (.274). Frankly, there is no track record of Rivers playing an efficient brand of basketball against high-level competition. He was one of the least valuable NBA players during the preseason, and even shot just 4-of-19 from the field in two summer-league games before suffering an ankle injury.


Supporters will point to Rivers' shot selection as the culprit for his poor percentages, but Hoopdata.com shows that the larger issue has been his inability to finish at the rim, where Rivers is making just 42.9 percent of his attempts (the league average is 63.9 percent). Though this will improve as Rivers learns to navigate rangy NBA shot-blockers, finishing is typically a skill players bring with them to the league. Bradley Beal, another one-and-done guard who has struggled at times during his rookie season, is shooting 61.0 percent at the rim.


Moreover, Rivers has yet to show the kind of dynamic playmaking the Hornets hoped would allow him to transition to point guard in the NBA. His assist rate is only slightly better than average for a shooting guard, let alone a lead ball handler. If Rivers is unable to handle the point, it will be difficult for him to coexist with a healthy Gordon in the New Orleans backcourt.


At age 20, Rivers has plenty of time to develop a more efficient game, possibly focused around the best skill he has shown so far -- 36.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc. If he gets there, his eventual style of play will bear little resemblance to his ineffective brand of basketball thus far.

 

[nuraman00]

Talking about baseball, did you know they had two all star games in one season?

When Major League Baseball Played Two All-Star Games

We like to complain about the one All-Star Game MLB schedules for the middle of the season. Between 1959-1962, there were two of them.

www.sbnation.com

 

[nuraman00]

I haven't read the article yet.

Here's the chart repasted:

 

[MHSL82]

At age 20, Rivers has plenty of time to develop a more efficient game, possibly focused around the best skill he has shown so far -- 36.7 percent shooting from beyond the arc. If he gets there, his eventual style of play will bear little resemblance to his ineffective brand of basketball thus far.

I'm not really serious here, but maybe he should only shoot three-pointers. I was better farther away from the basket - of course, no one could guard me or else I would miss more than my share. I played basketball at lunch instead of eating and I was shooting half court shots. I wasn't counting but two people said I made eight in a row. If I were to shoot eight eight-footers, I'd miss 3. Of course, if averaged over 100 shots, my percentage of half court shots probably would be less than 15%, especially considering fatigue. I assume the number was actually 5, because I can't imagine hitting 8 in a row, but maybe. I was good at it, but it's still a very low percentage shot and I was never guarded, of course.

This is why I was always amazed when I saw how poorly pros shot at shoot-arounds - until I figured out that they are practicing their weakest spots.

 

[nuraman00]

I'm not really serious here, but maybe he should only shoot three-pointers. I was better farther away from the basket - of course, no one could guard me or else I would miss more than my share. I played basketball at lunch instead of eating and I was shooting half court shots. I wasn't counting but two people said I made eight in a row. If I were to shoot eight eight-footers, I'd miss 3. Of course, if averaged over 100 shots, my percentage of half court shots probably would be less than 15%, especially considering fatigue. I assume the number was actually 5, because I can't imagine hitting 8 in a row, but maybe. I was good at it, but it's still a very low percentage shot and I was never guarded, of course.

This is why I was always amazed when I saw how poorly pros shot at shoot-arounds - until I figured out that they are practicing their weakest spots.

Bruce Bowen had a higher 3-point % than FT% for a few years. I wanted him to shoot FTs from the 3-point line, during the 2003 WCF.