2012-13 Prediction Thread

[MHSL82]

This thread is for any predictions you want to make Jazz or NBA related. Season records, playoff seedings, coach firings, players' statistical output, etc.

Season Record: Given the major changes to the lineup and the time associated with gaining chemistry with all players coupled with the assumed coaching improvement due to more experience and player growth from last year, I predict us to do no better or worse record-wise than last year - 45-37. We'll start out a bit average and start going later in the season. By the end of the year, we will be better than we were against San Antonio.

Marvin Williams will disappoint at first, but only because people will expect too much, but will be reliable at the end of the season. I think he'll do around the same as he did in Atlanta, where as the second pick, he had talent, but hovered around mid-first round to late production.

Tyron Corbin's job is safe. Hayward will improve.

Not ready to make trade predictions until a quarter into the season... or at least the first regular season game.

 

[nuraman00]

I don't think the Jazz make the playoffs.

They're a little better this year overall, but I think other teams have gotten even more better relative to the Jazz improvements.

I think Minnesota and Golden State will take the last few spots, and the Lakers will be in the playoffs too (they're not as of now).

 

[MHSL82]

Blasphemy!

 

[nuraman00]

Here was my reason why, when I ranked teams, 2 weeks ago:



Ok, I've been wanting to do this for a while, I'm going to spend some time and do it now. This is how I think the teams will finish the regular season.



Miami - Yeah, the defending champs will end up with the league's best record. This is what I thought would happen at the beginning of the season. Plus they play their stars a lot of minutes.


San Antonio - I've always been a believer in them. Doesn't matter how old they are. Plus they seem to make midseason acquisitions to bolster their team.


Memphis Grizzlies - I'm using the season in-progress for this one. I would not have had them this high at the beginning of the season. In fact, I was afraid that losing Mayo would have hurt their playmaking and perimeter scoring.


However, it appears that Randolph and Gay are finally healthy together, and that Bayless is just being used as a scorer and nothing else. I've never really liked Bayless' game but he's scoring and shooting well right now. And, Marc is playing better than Pau. I've also been a fan of Hollins coaching since 2009-2010, I like the system he runs.



Oklahoma City - I had them here before the Harden trade, and I don't think there's much of a dropoff with Martin. I seemed to be one of the few that posted more about how Martin would be a good fit, rather than what the Thunder lost in Harden.
I didn't think Martin's defense would be a problem, as long as they still had Sefolosha and Westbrook on the perimeter. Plus, a side benefit of not having Harden handle the ball, would mean that it gets to be in Durant's hands a little more, and he gets to take on a bigger role. He is passing and rebounding well this season.

Los Angeles Clippers - Yeah, I would have had the Clippers here at the start of the year, and it would have been on a whim because of DeAndre Jordan's added post game. Not the most solid reason, basing it on a guy like DeAndre Jordan, but these are just regular season finishes. I wanted something positive to go on.



Los Angeles Lakers - At the start of the year, I didn't think the Lakers would really be much better on offense with Nash, because I thought they had a pretty good offense last year and didn't think it could get much better, plus I figured Nash and Bryant would start to have some bad shooting nights, like at what stage Paul Pierce is at now.


I think a lot of that will change with D'Antoni. Now with him, they really can get even better on offense. Still, I don't like how Dwight Howard appears to be just a put-back guy. No, Howard doesn't have a lot of moves, but he should be allowed to use his physical presence to create a few shots on his own, earlier in the shot clock. He seems like he gets his points without trying. One could argue that Howard will be even more dangerous if they give him some shots, but I don't know if D'Antoni ever will.
Why am I more down on the Lakers age than the Spurs? The Spurs are deeper, and their PG is in his prime.


Brooklyn Nets - I'm using the season-in-progress for this one. At the start of the year, I would have had them lower because I didn't like Williams shooting. However, after seeing them for a few games, I didn't give Brook Lopez enough credit. He's a good offensive player. No he doesn't rebound too well, but they have Humphries and Evans for that.


Blatche and Marshon Brooks also seem to to be contributing well off the bench for a good team.


And Gerald Wallace has barely played too. I hope they let Wallace handle the ball some on the perimeter, I liked seeing him do that on the perimeter.


So, at the beginning of the year, I thought Brook Lopez would be a Blatche type player, but I had let his injury last year affect me too much. He's pretty skilled and shoots well.


Boston Celtics - Usually Boston starts out fast, and they haven't yet. But I think they'll figure it out. Or they'll get some more wing help. Their defense hasn't been good this year but I'm sure it will get better. Courtney Lee will probably help some with that.






Atlanta Hawks - Hmm, based on the season in progress they should probably be higher. I didn't like the way Teague ran the team last year, I felt he was not ready to take control and win his team a tough playoffs series like Parker or Rondo could.


He's getting more assists this year, so maybe he's improved. Atlanta is also #1 in defense, and #23 in offense. However, Korver and Lou Williams can probably replace some of Johnson's offense. Maybe with that guard depth they can not lose much in the backcourt, while finally having Smith and Horford healthy.


I've thought the Hawks had a top 3 frontcourt the past 3 years, and if Teague can improve as a passer, maybe they can win a tough series.


Chicago Bulls - I think if Rose can come back with 4-6 weeks left in the season they'll make a push.


Golden State Warriors - I would not have had them this high at the start of the year, but they are 13th in defense and 4th in rebounding and I think they're there to stay. Landry and Jack are playing well. Barnes has fit in a lot better than I thought. He's tougher than I thought.


And surprisingly they're this good defensively without Bogut. However, my preseason predictions would have had Bogut healthy, now who knows if he'll even play 30 games.



New York Knickerbockers - Despite their start, I don't like the offensive talent on their team overall. I think they'll have a worse 2nd half of the season.


Minnesota Timberwolves - When Rubio comes back, given their talent, they should be higher, but I think something about them won't click as well and they'll lose some games that they could have won.


They are 25th in offense right now and I don't think that's all because of Rubio's injury.



Denver Nuggets - Hmm, at the beginning of the year I probably would have put them higher. I'm using the season-in-progress for this one.

Lawson is shooting the ball horrible right now, and they can't hit 3's.




Philadelphia 76ers - Last spot was a toss-up between Indiana and Philly. I think the Paul George-George Hill backcourt could work, it might need some time. But maybe not. I don't think losing Granger is that big of a deal, it's their overall PG play which will decide how good they can be.


Hibbert got off to a slow start, but there's still a lot of time to turn things around. However, his penchant for foul trouble is always concerning.


Ok, enough about Indiana. Why did I pick Philly?


Jrue Holiday.


Hmm, despite Holiday's great play, they are still 27th in offense! LOL.


Charlotte Bobcats - Definitely using the season-in-progress for this one. Kemba Walker has made big strides (although he still needs to work on his shooting) and he's showing an all-around game.

Kidd-Gilchrist seems to have made an immediate impact.

I also don't know how their schedule relates to others, maybe they've had an easier schedule.

Maybe I'm jumping the gun on them, but we've also seen a team like Utah rise up last year, so it's not that far-fetched that they could get a 7th or 8th seed.

They have one game on NBA TV against the Hornets, and one game on WGN against the Bulls, so I'll try to see how they look.

They don't have one 20 point scorer though, that's concerning.






So these are roughly what I think the playoffs teams will be, and the league regular season finish. So here's why a few other teams missed the cut:


Utah Jazz - They have a lot of good bigs, but I don't like their halfcourt offense. And as typical of a Jazz team, they're much better at home. I don't know if Mo can stay healthy either, he'll probably have nagging injuries.


Milwaukee Bucks - I don't like the backcourt pairing, too many inefficient shooters. And not enough frontcourt players.


Dallas Mavericks - Mayo and Kaman are playing great, so you would think that when Nowitzki comes back, they'll make the playoffs for sure, right? I don't think it will be that easy, they're still missing something to me.


Hmm, they're 22nd in defense, maybe that's it.


Bottom 6 (6th worst to worst):


Toronto Raptors - Yeah, they have some catching up to do to pass the Rockets. But if they keep both Lowry and Calderon, I like their PGs. DeRozan reminds me of a Batum type player, he's pretty good. And I've been high on Valanciunus. I know, he's just a rookie, but maybe he'll help later on.


Houston Rockets - I think their offense will fall pretty hard soon. Harden isn't enough. Kudos to Parsons.


Washington Wizards - They might be able to climb even higher. I do like the talent on this team enough that they could be out of the bottom five. But it may be too big of a hole.


Detroit Pistons - Very good emerging frontcourt, but as usual, the backcourt will hold them back.


New Orleans Hornets - Gordon will help some when he returns but they need more than that. Kudos to Vazquez this year.


Cleveland Cavs - Bad offense, I think Washington will pass them once they get Wall back and now that Nene is back.



Ok, I've ranked all but four teams (Portland, Phoenix, Orlando, Sacramento).