Scouts vs. Stats: Top 10 NFL Quarterbacks

[Fountain City Blues]

Scouts vs. Stats: Top 10 NFL Quarterbacks

Where do Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow fit in on our respective lists?

www.sportsinfosolutions.com

Over the spring/summer, the SIS R&D staff is convening on the Off the Charts Podcast to talk about their top ten players at a position. To do this, we pit two methodologies against each other:

• The “Scouts,” which comes down to the film-based opinions of Matt Manocherian and Bryce Rossler, each of whom has a lot of experience breaking down film and scouting players (Matt having been a scout for NFL teams).
• The “Stats,” which involves James Weaver and Alex Vigderman devising a ranking based on a suite of metrics, and having that ranking speak for itself.

Officially, Sports Info Solutions does not condone the dichotomy between scouting and statistical analysis. Each of them provides data in their own way and should inform our evaluation of a player.

When we originally produced the Football Rookie Handbook before transitioning that content to our NFL Draft site, we put the scouting reports and stats side-by-side with the idea that the reader would bounce back and forth between them and leverage both to come to a conclusion about a prospect.

This week, we flipped sides, with Alex and James providing their scouting insights while Bryce and Matt assumed the mantle of the nerds. With quarterbacks, it was easy for everyone to agree on the No. 1 guy, but there were some differences of opinion along the way.

Scouts’ Opinion	Statistical Analysis
1. Patrick Mahomes	1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Joe Burrow	2. Justin Herbert
3. Josh Allen	3. Josh Allen
4. Jalen Hurts	4. Aaron Rodgers
5. Justin Herbert	5. Jalen Hurts
6. Trevor Lawrence	6. Joe Burrow
7. Aaron Rodgers	7. Tua Tagovailoa
8. Lamar Jackson	8. Dak Prescott
9. Dak Prescott	9. Kirk Cousins
10. Russell Wilson	10. Derek Carr

What the Stats Showed

As Matt noted, it would have been difficult to tweak the model in a way to dethrone Patrick Mahomes.

“In terms of Z-scores, the difference between Patrick Mahomes and the second-ranked player, Justin Herbert, was bigger than the difference between Herbert and Derek Carr [the 10th-ranked player],” Matt said, “Mahomes was two standard deviations above average; the next-highest Z-score was Herbert, who was a little over one standard deviation above average.” ,,,,

 

[Clayton]

Lawrence all the way up to #6? Seems like recency bias but maybe thats just me

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Wilson was one of the worst QBs in the league last year despite going to SUCH A BETTER TEAM. Prescott was bleh, Rodgers sucked ass and is approaching 70 years old, TREVOR LAWRENCE? lmao.

Shocked Tom Brady didn't make it on the list, I guess the paychecks from his agents to be on a top 10 list are getting smaller.

 

[eaglesnut]

Lawrence all the way up to #6? Seems like recency bias but maybe thats just me

Because his first year was wasted. His second year he got the great Doug Pederson. And now he's legit.

 

[SteelersPride]

Wilson was one of the worst QBs in the league last year despite going to SUCH A BETTER TEAM. Prescott was bleh, Rodgers sucked ass and is approaching 70 years old, TREVOR LAWRENCE? lmao.

Shocked Tom Brady didn't make it on the list, I guess the paychecks from his agents to be on a top 10 list are getting smaller.

Lawrence was amazing the second half of the year.

 

[Thruthefog]

Lawrence was amazing the second half of the year.

Yeah, but the refs gifted him the playoffs and his first playoff win. So he hasn't arrived yet.

 

[SteelersPride]

Yeah, but the refs gifted him the playoffs and his first playoff win. So he hasn't arrived yet.

That's silliness

 

[Thruthefog]

That's silliness

I watched the games. I saw it happen.

 

[SteelersPride]

I watched the games. I saw it happen.

Yeah for sure.

 

[fightinfunbags]

That's silliness

Yeah I don’t know how the refs are responsible for blowing a 27 lead.

 

[SteelersPride]

Yeah I don’t know how the refs are responsible for blowing a 27 lead.

 

[RememberTheKoy]

Josh Allen is not better than Jalen Hurts. He hasn't been able to get rid of the impulse to make horrible decisions at bad times that plagued him in his rookie season and seemed to come back in a force last season. I'm so glad they finally play this year.

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Yeah, but the refs gifted him the playoffs and his first playoff win. So he hasn't arrived yet.

By that reasoning, Justin Herbert shouldn't be considered one of the top QBs either because he "hasn't arrived yet".

 

[Dr. Strangelove]

Lawrence all the way up to #6? Seems like recency bias but maybe thats just me

Maybe a little bit but I would take Trevor over Tua, Dak, Cousins and Carr in the other column every day. And probably over the current Aaron Rodgers. I think Lawrence will be in the MVP discussion by years end with a second season under Pederson.

 

[DJ Fieri]

By that reasoning, Justin Herbert shouldn't be considered one of the top QBs either because he "hasn't arrived yet".

Exactly.

 

[Thruthefog]

By that reasoning, Justin Herbert shouldn't be considered one of the top QBs either because he "hasn't arrived yet".

Agreed.

 

[Iggloo]

It’s fascinating to see the human bias of the scouts compared with the stats. Explains a lot about the draft process. Somewhere between the raw stats and their inherent limits and the scouting bias is the real truth.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

Lawrence was amazing the second half of the year.

His last 3 wins to end the season were lackluster, and he did everything in his power to give away the game to the Chargers with a whopping 4 INTs.

Trevor Lawrence is just on there because east coast and he was the #1 overall pick. Geno Smith was far better than Lawrence last year and far better in the playoffs... it was just that Seattle's defense can't stop fuck all. Someone could argue Geno is a 1 year wonder, I could say the same about Lawrence, his season wasn't impressive at all. 25 TDs, barely above 4K yards, 95 QB rating? "Seattle has better receivers" and was playing with two rookie OTs (basically unheard of over the last 50 years), a rookie RB, and the worst Center in the NFL.

 

[Clayton]

It’s fascinating to see the human bias of the scouts compared with the stats. Explains a lot about the draft process. Somewhere between the raw stats and their inherent limits and the scouting bias is the real truth.

I think the scouts are much closer. They definitely factor in mobility more.

 

[fightinfunbags]

Lawrence all the way up to #6? Seems like recency bias but maybe thats just me

Young QB who seemed to figure it out in the 2nd half of his season, coupled with the idea that when he came out, he was widely considered the best QB in his draft class by a decent margin. I can see why he’s been slotted here. Time will tell if that’s where he belongs.