"So you're saying there's a chance", what would be your playoff odds right now?

[belcherboy]

I realize this could jinx every team on this list, but I'm willing to risk that when making my predictions.

The likely playoff scenarios are: (with my odds of it happening)

UGA is in if they win out (35% chance of that happening)
LSU is in if they win out or their only loss is UGA (80% chance of this happening)
Bama is in if LSU wins out. (65% chance of this happening)
* If LSU loses, I think Bama is out. (35% chance of this happening)
Minnesota is in if they win out (1% chance of this happening)
Ohio State is in if they win out (80% chance of this happening)
Penn State is in if they win out (20% chance of this happening)
Baylor is in if they win out. (25% chance of happening)
OK is in if they win out (30% chance of this happening)
Oregon is in if they win out (10% chance)
Utah is in if they win out (10% chance)
Clemson is in if they win out (99% chance of happening)
Michigan is in if all the teams above are found ineligible before seasons end (4.5% chance of happening, because they all are cheaters except Michigan )

So I think it will be:

LSU
Ohio State
Clemson
Bama

* I think UGA could beat LSU, so just flip UGA and Bama if that happens.
* I don't think PSU will stand a chance against Ohio State, but if they do win, then you can likely flip PSU with OSU
* I don't think OK will have much to cry about for being left out, and Oregon/Utah really don't stand much of a chance because of who they lost to, and they just didn't have any real signature wins IMO.
* Minnesota could play the spoiler, but I could see them with 2 or more losses before the season ends.
* Baylor hasn't really played anyone, so I think they lose one or more games in the next few weeks.

Alright boys...you can take this to Vegas and CLEAN UP! Bet the house, the 401k, and the kids on it and you will walk away rich!

 

[UGADawg1988]

I'm not totally sure that Ohio State is out if their only loss is to Minnesota in the Big 10 championship game, assuming a close score. This is a way for the Big 10 to get two teams in. I fear that the trick is for Minnesota to end up 13-0, which I can't imagine happening, yet...

 

[dtgold88]

Why would Bama have a 65% chance of getting in if LSU wins out, but Minnesota only 1% if they go, say, 12-1 with only loss to 13-0 OSU?

 

[Mistaken4193]

Bama only chance is Oklahoma losing 1 more and winning the Big12 and Oregon and Utah losing 1 more each and winning PAC12. And LSU winning out.


I was surprised looking at Utah and Oregon schedule that they combined have only play 1 ranked team so far (Oregon lost to Auburn) and that the winner of that game would only have 1 top 25 win(Pac12 Championship Game)

 

[TheReal_NU]

Mine?????

I’d have to think they’re about zero

 

[TheReal_NU]

And Nebraska’s are lower than my personal odds of making it to the CFP

 

[rmilia1]

Bama isnt getting in unless the B12 champ has 2 losses and P12 champ have 2 losses. Even then theyd need OSU and LSU to win out. Not impossible but highly unlikely

 

[tnapucco]

I quit caring two weeks ago.

Can't be letdown when you don't expect anything good to happen.

 

[MarkOU]

The real story here is going to be this.

If OU wins out, they get in, forcing Bama to the Sugar bowl to play Baylor.

What a tragedy that will be.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

I realize this could jinx every team on this list, but I'm willing to risk that when making my predictions.

The likely playoff scenarios are: (with my odds of it happening)

UGA is in if they win out (35% chance of that happening)
LSU is in if they win out or their only loss is UGA (80% chance of this happening)
Bama is in if LSU wins out. (65% chance of this happening)
* If LSU loses, I think Bama is out. (35% chance of this happening)
Minnesota is in if they win out (1% chance of this happening)
Ohio State is in if they win out (80% chance of this happening)
Penn State is in if they win out (20% chance of this happening)
Baylor is in if they win out. (25% chance of happening)
OK is in if they win out (30% chance of this happening)
Oregon is in if they win out (10% chance)
Utah is in if they win out (10% chance)
Clemson is in if they win out (99% chance of happening)
Michigan is in if all the teams above are found ineligible before seasons end (4.5% chance of happening, because they all are cheaters except Michigan )

So I think it will be:

LSU
Ohio State
Clemson
Bama

* I think UGA could beat LSU, so just flip UGA and Bama if that happens.
* I don't think PSU will stand a chance against Ohio State, but if they do win, then you can likely flip PSU with OSU
* I don't think OK will have much to cry about for being left out, and Oregon/Utah really don't stand much of a chance because of who they lost to, and they just didn't have any real signature wins IMO.
* Minnesota could play the spoiler, but I could see them with 2 or more losses before the season ends.
* Baylor hasn't really played anyone, so I think they lose one or more games in the next few weeks.

Alright boys...you can take this to Vegas and CLEAN UP! Bet the house, the 401k, and the kids on it and you will walk away rich!

These are pretty shitty predictions.

 

[Tin Man]

For Tennessee to make the playoffs this year, they would have to be one of only four teams available to play, and the shell-shocked nation would need the CFP to occur for sense of normalcy and healing.

 

[TigerBait1971]

I quit caring two weeks ago.

Can't be letdown when you don't expect anything good to happen.

I know that feelz

 

[Wild Turkey]

Auburn beats both Georgia and Alabama
aTm beats LSU
Georgia wins the SECG against LSU
Oregon wins out

The committee puts Auburn in ahead of Oregon.

Percentage chance - 100%

 

[belcherboy]

These are pretty shitty predictions.

So, you don't think that LSU, Clemson, Ohio State, and Bama have much of a shot at the final four?

 

[belcherboy]

Why would Bama have a 65% chance of getting in if LSU wins out, but Minnesota only 1% if they go, say, 12-1 with only loss to 13-0 OSU?

I'm predicting they lose more than just one game, and that it won't be a close loss. I think I stated that in my paragraph at the end.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

So, you don't think that LSU, Clemson, Ohio State, and Bama have much of a shot at the final four?

Bama needs a lot of help to go their way. Oregon, Utah, and even OU are all more likely, as all they need to do is win out.

 

[belcherboy]

Bama isnt getting in unless the B12 champ has 2 losses and P12 champ have 2 losses. Even then theyd need OSU and LSU to win out. Not impossible but highly unlikely

I don't think that will be the case unless Utah wins. If Bama smacks down Auburn, it would eliminate Oregon in a debate between Oregon and Bama...in my opinion.

 

[belcherboy]

Bama needs a lot of help to go their way. Oregon, Utah, and even OU are all more likely, as all they need to do is win out.

I don't think Oregon is more likely, if Bama smacks down Auburn.

Utah and Oklahoma would have chance, but Bama's only loss would likely be against the #1 ranked team, so I think they would get the SEC benefit with the committee. Again, I could be wrong, but I don't see Oregon getting in above Bama if they both win out.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

I don't think that will be the case unless Utah wins. If Bama smacks down Auburn, it would eliminate Oregon in a debate between Oregon and Bama...in my opinion.

Your opinion is irrelevant to the committee. Conference championships matter according to the committee.

 

[michaeljordan_fan]

I don't think Oregon is more likely, if Bama smacks down Auburn.

Utah and Oklahoma would have chance, but Bama's only loss would likely be against the #1 ranked team, so I think they would get the SEC benefit with the committee. Again, I could be wrong, but I don't see Oregon getting in above Bama if they both win out.

12-1 > 11-1

Sorry that you wasted your time.