why is taking a qb "early" taboo?

[nj_cup]

now i say "early" because i wouldn't really entertain taking luck before 10th.

thats where i'm currently sitting in a 12 team set up.

6pts for td's 25yards 1pt qb. 10yards 1pt for everyone else.

start qb-rb-rb-wr-wr-te-flex k and d.

the idea that people say qb is "deep" makes some sense but when you break down the numbers a little more there is a little advantage to taking a qb early.

say the top 5 rb and top 4 wr go in my draft. i'm faced with taking the 6th or 5th best player and "chase" the rest of the talent already drafted in front of me. those top 9 would be in no particular order. 1.bell 2.charles 3. lacey 4. peterson 5.forte 6. brown 7. julio 8. dez 9. d-thomas. yeah sure i could take odell but i'm not big on sophmores or eli. lynch? yeah hes great if he stays together and jimmy doesnt eat his redzone plus with ppr i rather get a mix use back there.

so i was looking

if i take luck and come back with say miller i'm only "giving up" a difference of 3.5pts. i come to this by looking at what forte (355pts) and miller (223pts) over the course of a season thats 8.25 points. luck (495pts) and the next best tier brees ( 420pts) is a difference of 4.68pts.

further look at the "top" players taken in the first round last year would reveal the bust potential for anyone but qb (rodgers/luck) is huuuuuuuuuuuge notable players that were "busts" last year. mccoy green jimmy calvin marshall bernard.

how many people were burned with these guys last year?

ideally in my situation sitting at 10 i would love to grab the best wr julio if he falls to me only because i think there is a chance i can snag luck on the way back or even rodgers. but if luck is staring at me after the top 9 go i will have a hard time passing him up.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

In football this whole chasing theory is not valid... Points don't matter where they come from, as long as they are there...

The best reason to take a QB early is because they are the safest position NOT to get injured, and they are the most consistent players on your team... Not to mention the highest scoring...

It is much easier to find a WR or RB on the waiver wire during the season that will start for you than it is to find a QB...

Really, there is no taboo pick, as long as you carry out your strategy well... Problem is when you draft a QB early, that player must be worth that value, otherwise you dug yourself into a huge hole and more so than if you drafted a failed RB or WR... The trading value for a QB is just not high, because nobody really panics... and even if someone does panic they generally will go for the middle QB...

 

[nj_cup]

trading in fantasy is always a hassle and never really happens at least who i play with. besides if i am taking luck in the first or second round i wouldn't be looking to deal him.

i was doing some further looking into this and with my scoring setup. AP is projected to be the highest back at 290pts. lamar miller the #12 back with 232pts. a weekly difference of 3.62 luck projects 430pts. the next qb that i would want to take would be brees 380 points weekly difference of 3.12. its really not much of an advantage waiting for a qb if you ask me. thats also if your lucky enough to have a top 2nd tier qb come back to you in round 3

 

[TREFF]

In football this whole chasing theory is not valid... Points don't matter where they come from, as long as they are there...

The best reason to take a QB early is because they are the safest position NOT to get injured, and they are the most consistent players on your team... Not to mention the highest scoring...

It is much easier to find a WR or RB on the waiver wire during the season that will start for you than it is to find a QB...

Really, there is no taboo pick, as long as you carry out your strategy well... Problem is when you draft a QB early, that player must be worth that value, otherwise you dug yourself into a huge hole and more so than if you drafted a failed RB or WR... The trading value for a QB is just not high, because nobody really panics... and even if someone does panic they generally will go for the middle QB...

that's actually a very good reason NOT to take a QB early becuase it applies to virtually ALL the QB's. They're all consistent, they all score high, they all have a small likelihood of injury (minus Bradford and RG3).

But the best reason to not take one early is because the one you get in the first 3 rounds is only marginally better than the one you get in round 6 or 8, maybe even later. Luck and Rodgers are the only exceptions, and depending on your league size and scoring, even they may not be realistic exceptions

 

[TREFF]

You can point out all the if I took player X and player Y instances that provee your point. .but for each of those I can say,... if you do that, then i would've taken L.Bell 1st and R. Wilson in the late rounds, I'm winning. There's always a way to manipulate the numbers after the fact and say, if this that or the other thing would've happened I would've had a 5 point advantage. .or whatever. But there's just as many ways to say the opposite. You make the best choices available at the time, and in general, it's the middle picks who pan out that won your title, not whether you took a QB or a RB or Gronk, or a Defense in round 1

 

[nj_cup]

but the drop off esp picking at the back end of a draft is also marginal at best too. i'm going strictly by projected points. the difference between the #1 back and #12 is only 3pts a week over the course of the year.

i'm expecting to pick like bare bones if i dont take a rb or wr first. but its not really the case at all. there is a ton of depth out there at rb/wr. while limiting your bust chances

 

[tlance]

First, Lynch is you other top 5 RB, not forte. Forte is on decline.

Second, Jeremy hill is a guy you should seriously consider. I picked him at 5 overall in a draft last week, ahead of Lynch. If he is there at 10, he is every bit as good as Charles and Lynch, IMO.

 

[nj_cup]

i know a lot of people are high on hill and yeah i might regret it but i need more of a sample size. i can't go off of a year stats.

looking back last year people had projections of doug martin @8 stacey 11 ball 13 bernard 14. all those after brief stints of glory

 

[tlance]

Sure, RBs bust often, but the drop between the top tier RBs and the tier 3 RBs is astronomical. If you take Luck and Miller at 10 and 15, you are missing some of the best values in the entire draft to do it. Can it work, yes, but you will have a small margin for error in you mid rounds if you take Luck over and elite RB/WR or even Gronk.

While it seems like taking a TE is the same idea, it really is not. In my mind there are only 5 worth drafting this year, and Gronk near the round 1 turn is the best value of all, IMO

 

[eaglesnut]

There are tons of QBs. Go ahead and tell me with a straight face that Sam Bradford will definitely NOT be the highest scoring QB week 1 (@ the Falcons, on that track)...

Consider this fact. If I draft Eli and Bradford, two QBs that don't cost me any starting caliber players to draft(post round 7), I can play against the Redskins 4 times. The problem with drafting a QB early is you cost yourself a starting caliber player to do so. The truth with QBs is that there is huge right skew to the draft distribution. Once most of the other teams already have their QBs, then the remaining teams get to wait for one and add better players to their bench. Ideally I'll always draft 2 QBs at the cusp of the "backups" going. Most bang for your buck.

Now all that said, I am sitting at #8 in my big money league in a 14 teamer tonight and I will definitely consider Rodgers and Luck (6 point passing TDs). With 14 teams my chances of landing two guys that I can mix and match to a top 5 QB performance decreases. I would feel comfortable going with 3 guys if I had the roster space to do so. Rivers-Bridgewater-Flacco (for example) could certainly give you a top 5-10 QB most weeks.

Fantasy football is a week to week game. It's important to draft with that distinction in mind.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Comparing the difference between AP and Miller to that of Luck and Brees is not the right comparison. Your RB2 is where you take the hit... or WR1.

You can win any way you slice it, but if you have three RB and three WR after six rounds, I believe you max out your chances of winning....but yes, you have to miss the busts.

The value for QB in round 8 - 10 is just too big to pass on for me.

 

[SteelersPride]

I concur

 

[averagejoe]

Agree with Treff & TKO. Stability at the position means you should wait. When all is said and done, here's how things shake out:

Top 5 QB averaged 387 points.
Top 10 QB averaged 359 points.
Next 10 (11-20) QB averaged 278 points.

Top 5 RB averaged 316 points.
Top 10 RB averaged 272 points.
Next 10 RB (11-20) averaged 172.
Next 10 RB (21-30) averaged 121.
Next 10 RB (31-40) averaged 90.

Top 5 WR averaged 320 points.
top 10 WR averaged 294.
Next 10 WR (11-20) = 218
Next 30 WR (21-30) = 187
Next 40 WR (31-40) = 166

Top 5 TE averaged 225 points.
Top 10 TE averaged 194.
Next 10 (11-20) = 113.

As you can see, if you wait to draft a RB, you could find yourself in 100-150 point deficit quickly.

Checked the leagues I was in last year. Five leagues, not one champion had drafted a QB in the top 3 rounds. Was even shocked that one owner won with Cutler and RG3 as his QB. His RB and WR were his strengths.

 

[jarntt]

It's the Lemming theory. It's like years ago when you HAD to take a RB early. I've always taken WRs early and it's almost always paid off. Now the last few years everyone does it, but the scoring systems haven't changed. I used to love when some guy every year took a 3rd RB in a 2 RB league before anything else because a magazine had them ranked that way. People fall into these habits and they can't see outside their own little box. Simple fact is there is no one way to draft and anyone that thinks there is, is flat out wrong. I'm not a big "take a QB early guy" in most leagues, but there is nothing wrong with doing it. IMO the people that take Gronk in the first round instead of a stud WR or unproven RBs (Ball last year) are making bigger mistakes, but that doesn't mean it can't work. If you like a top QB and Ivory a lot better than L Miller and a lesser QB (or whatever example you want to use), then do it.

I did an NFFC draft last night and it sure looked as if at least half the league printed out the ADP and followed it...Others set up what position they are going to in what round before they even get to the draft...Lemmings...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Agree with Treff & TKO. Stability at the position means you should wait. When all is said and done, here's how things shake out:

Top 5 QB averaged 387 points.
Top 10 QB averaged 359 points.
Next 10 (11-20) QB averaged 278 points.

Top 5 RB averaged 316 points.
Top 10 RB averaged 272 points.
Next 10 RB (11-20) averaged 172.
Next 10 RB (21-30) averaged 121.
Next 10 RB (31-40) averaged 90.

Top 5 WR averaged 320 points.
top 10 WR averaged 294.
Next 10 WR (11-20) = 218
Next 30 WR (21-30) = 187
Next 40 WR (31-40) = 166

Top 5 TE averaged 225 points.
Top 10 TE averaged 194.
Next 10 (11-20) = 113.

As you can see, if you wait to draft a RB, you could find yourself in 100-150 point deficit quickly.

Checked the leagues I was in last year. Five leagues, not one champion had drafted a QB in the top 3 rounds. Was even shocked that one owner won with Cutler and RG3 as his QB. His RB and WR were his strengths.

This is true, the only problem is that the top players in each category fluctuate much more than it does in QB... Try to name the top 10 RBs, I bet by the end of the season it changes drastically... QB is just so consistent... And that's what you are paying for, not just the point differential...

 

[jarntt]

It's not about averages. It's about the specific guys YOU pick versus the guys you otherwise would have picked. If it was as easy as knowing who was going to be one of the top 5 average guys at year end, the draft wouldn't be very tough.

 

[Gooch1034]

Almost any strategy in fantasy drafting changes based on who/when players get picked. If you have a late pick and everyone before you goes rb/wr, then its a good idea to go QB since you know everyone else will be gunning for them within the next 2 rounds. I have learned to not go into a draft with a set plan on when I draft certain positions because you just don't know how others will draft and that can change absolutely everything.

 

[tlance]

That is not true Gooch.

No, you don't want to be a lemming and draft an RB just because, but if everyone in your league is QB crazy and drafts them within four rounds, that is actually more reason to wait. The best values arise when you move contrary to the pack.

Taking a QB too early, however can really hurt you. Looking around my leagues, there were 2 teams who reached for Luck in the top 6. They are both absolutely terrible.

 

[tlance]

No, not counting MBBRL in this. I actually think Wil pulled it off. He just needs To tread water til he gets Foster back.

 

[TREFF]

This is true, the only problem is that the top players in each category fluctuate much more than it does in QB... Try to name the top 10 RBs, I bet by the end of the season it changes drastically... QB is just so consistent... And that's what you are paying for, not just the point differential...

You sure about that Clark?
As per Pro Football Reference:
2012 top 10 QB's
Brees
Rodgers
Brady
Newton
RgIII
P. Manning
Ryan
Romo
R. Wilson
Luck
2013
P. Manning
Brees
Newton
Luck
Dalton
Rivers
Stafford
RWILSON
Foles
Romo
2014
Rodgers
Luck
R. Wilson
P. Manning
Big Ben
Brees
Ryan
Brady
Tannehill
Eli.

Not a whole lot of names show up all 3 times- Brees, Luck, Wilson, Peyton (obviously without the injury Rodgers would've been in 2013..but then again, part of your point was how safe they are and don't get injured soo...) thes just as much turnover of the top QB's as there is the top RB's, the big names almost always perform, and there's always a handful of shockers that sneak into the top 10.
Of those "consistent" names, you can get all but two of them in the 3rd or later. .thus, no reason to blow a first on Luck or Rodgers , unless your in a 12+ team league, and even then it's still debatable.