Where Should I Be Valuing Spencer Ware in a dynasty league

[averagejoe]

Good question.
Kind of forced me to look at Ware's situation a little more closely.

The pecking order in KC seems to be Ware, West, rookie Kareem Hunt and Spiller.
Was unsure on how Hunt fits into this equation, but one of the scouting reports I read made it seem like he's viewed more of a "compliment" than a feature back.

Adequate in most areas and has talent to become a backup that can step in and handle a bigger load if needed. - per NFL.com

It's no surprise that NFL teams need depth. Especially at RB. Problem is, as fantasy owners we may read more into a situation - that the "new guy" poses a threat to the incumbent.

Ware's stats are decent. Maybe not outstanding.
Started 14 of 14 games, had only 921 yards rushing (but a good 4.3 ypc) and added 33 receptions for 447 more yards (1368 total). He accounted for 25.8% of the Chiefs' offense. The NFL average for lead RB is 25%. He was also lean in the TD department with 5 TD.

On the positive side, Ware averaged 97.7 total yards per game. Only 7 RB did better.
And Ware's 5 TD, while maybe lite, were still more than ALL other KC backs combined.

Andy Reid runs a conservative, ball-control offense.
Believe it or not, since arriving in KC in 2013, last year was the highest Reid's offense ranked (20th), but it was also the worst rushing rank (15th) of his tenure. Which is also a good argument for obvious depth.

Ware's situation seems to lean either way. Could be good? Could be bad? But at age 25 and with the short amount of depth behind him, I still see Ware as the workhorse for Reid. Personally, I look at Hunt as more of a replacement for Spiller and don't see Hunt challenging Ware.

Probably doesn't answer your question tho?

 

[Clayton]

Good question.
Kind of forced me to look at Ware's situation a little more closely.

The pecking order in KC seems to be Ware, West, rookie Kareem Hunt and Spiller.
Was unsure on how Hunt fits into this equation, but one of the scouting reports I read made it seem like he's viewed more of a "compliment" than a feature back......Personally, I look at Hunt as more of a replacement for Spiller and don't see Hunt challenging Ware.

Imo, Charcandrick West is more of an athlete than a running back.

I think if Hunt only replaced Spiller then it would be considered a pretty huge disappointment. The Chiefs traded up for him over a fairly large list of running backs that could've easily sat at the back of the rotation.

 

[averagejoe]

@Clayton
Just to clarify, are you saying that Hunt replaces West in the pecking order?
And that Ware is still safe as the starter?

 

[Clayton]

@Clayton
Just to clarify, are you saying that Hunt replaces West in the pecking order?
And that Ware is still safe as the starter?

That would be my assumption but I don't think Ware is 100% safe as the starter but I think he is the favorite and absolutely top 2. Ware really only had 2 monster games last year, IIRC, and one of them was against Oakland's swiss cheese defense and one was week 1 against the Chargers when the Chargers had a big lead and went into prevent/dumb defenses that aren't really indicative of how most teams play the Chiefs.

Chiefs underperformed in the red zone by about 10% last year from where they were at previously with Reid. There are more TDs to be gained and Maclin isnt there to take them.

PFF compared Hunt to Kenneth Dixon. Dixon had 88 rushes and 30 receptions for the Ravens last year. West had 88 rushes and 28 receptions for the Chiefs last year.

West's DYAR and DVOA (footballoutsiders) last year both sucked. Dixon's was alright - basically a yard more per rush and footballoutsiders actually had BALT's run blocking oline lower than KC last year.

So I guess my baseline expectation is maybe about 120 touches, 3-5 TDs for Hunt and Ware to still be the starter. I'd say there is just less than a 50/50 chance that Hunt is the starter by the end of the year but Ware should get the benefit of the doubt for this year.

 

[TREFF]

I would say Ware is in the same boat as CJ Anderson, perfectly fine RB, perfectly capable, and perfectly replaceable. Its not a question as to their talent, the question is, does the rookie, or the backup, have something special that'll force the vet aside? You me, Hunt seems like another CJ, another Ware.. not special.
Worst case, they end up splitting time, imho

 

[Stomp]

If Hunt takes carries from anyone its going to be Ware he's a one cut slasher that will be a liability on passing downs(at first anyways). He isn't anywhere near the blocker or receiver, but his running style is like Frank Gores. I own Ware(and West) in one of my dynasty leagues and i plan on moving him once we get our replacement owners figured out.

My guess is Ware is still the number one guy , but with reduced touches. Hunt starts slow but picks up steam as the season goes, West gets phased out unless someone gets hurt, and speaking of hurt Spiller is irrelevant as usual.