we do have alot to be thankful for

[tedman2012]

manny mo and chris had a wonderful year and we lose alot of the bad parts of the team . i hate to see brob go but he isn't the old brob . tilly is a young proven pitcher

 

[NJBuckO's]

Twins miraculously may win a game. How big was that loss yesterday. When does Norris return, looks like MG is out for one start at least.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

At this point, we're probably looking at a regular-season record around 85-77... which, although disappointing, is something that I could live with. Part of me wonders if our expectation as fans might have increased--perhaps to somewhat unrealistic levels--because of the Orioles' success in 2012. In a sense, 2013 looks like the polar opposite of 2012-- but that's regression to the mean for you.

There's a silver lining, though: If you take a two-year average, the resulting stats actually look quite reasonable. Also, despite the worse record, there are signs of incremental improvement. This team should get better in 2014.

 

[NJBuckO's]

This is a roster with 90+ win talent but not enough baseball smarts. Even if they were average in one run games you're looking at 93 wins probably.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

This is a roster with 90+ win talent but not enough baseball smarts. Even if they were average in one run games you're looking at 93 wins probably.

Fair point... but if you take out the random fluctuations from the team's true talent level, the regular-reason records might look like this:

2012: 85-77 to 87-75
2013: 90-72 to 93-69
(Essentially, you would be swapping the 2012 record with the 2013 record. The general upward trend would also be more obvious in this case.)


Here's another way to take a look at talent: runs scored and runs allowed.
2012: 712 RS, 705 RA (AL average: 721 RS, 713 RA)
2013, extrapolated to 162 games: 757 RS, 707 RA (AL average: 707 RS, 699 RA)

Interpretation: In 2012, we had average hitting and average pitching. In 2013, pitching is still average (although slightly worse than in 2012), but hitting has improved. That means adding another front-end starter and rebuilding the bullpen would help this team become more competitive in 2014.

 

[tedman2012]

the main problem is we don't take walks . hardly ever do they make the pitcher get them out most of the time they get themselves out swinging at ball 4

 

[skinz2winz]

Fair point... but if you take out the random fluctuations from the team's true talent level, the regular-reason records might look like this:

2012: 85-77 to 87-75
2013: 90-72 to 93-69
(Essentially, you would be swapping the 2012 record with the 2013 record. The general upward trend would also be more obvious in this case.)


Here's another way to take a look at talent: runs scored and runs allowed.
2012: 712 RS, 705 RA (AL average: 721 RS, 713 RA)
2013, extrapolated to 162 games: 757 RS, 707 RA (AL average: 707 RS, 699 RA)

Interpretation: In 2012, we had average hitting and average pitching. In 2013, pitching is still average (although slightly worse than in 2012), but hitting has improved. That means adding another front-end starter and rebuilding the bullpen would help this team become more competitive in 2014.

Agreed! We need better pitching (true Ace) and better bullpen arms.

 

[tedman2012]

Agreed! We need better pitching (true Ace) and better bullpen arms.

who is a true ace ? all we need to do is to sign a barry zito or a lackey or josh hamilton

 

[calfan810]

Fair point... but if you take out the random fluctuations from the team's true talent level, the regular-reason records might look like this:

2012: 85-77 to 87-75
2013: 90-72 to 93-69
(Essentially, you would be swapping the 2012 record with the 2013 record. The general upward trend would also be more obvious in this case.)


Here's another way to take a look at talent: runs scored and runs allowed.
2012: 712 RS, 705 RA (AL average: 721 RS, 713 RA)
2013, extrapolated to 162 games: 757 RS, 707 RA (AL average: 707 RS, 699 RA)

Interpretation: In 2012, we had average hitting and average pitching. In 2013, pitching is still average (although slightly worse than in 2012), but hitting has improved. That means adding another front-end starter and rebuilding the bullpen would help this team become more competitive in 2014.

numbers are tainted slightly, and should be separated...pre-allstar break, and post all-star break...post allstar is nothing more then below average, ESP WITH RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION,

 

[Shenanihanigans]

the main problem is we don't take walks . hardly ever do they make the pitcher get them out most of the time they get themselves out swinging at ball 4

Absolutely!

When you don't work the count, the pitcher doesn't have to work. When the pitcher doesn't have to work, you don't tax the bullpen.

the O's blew the most leads out of anybody in MLB for a reason: opposing teams worked the count, and the O's did not.

Not rocket science. Throw fucking strikes and work the count.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

numbers are tainted slightly, and should be separated...pre-allstar break, and post all-star break...post allstar is nothing more then below average, ESP WITH RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION,

Well, let's redo the analysis for each half-season:

Pre-AS:
AL average: 415 RS, 412 RA over 94 games
Orioles: 462 RS, 435 RA over 96 games (scaled to 94 games: 452 RS, 426 RA)

Post-AS:
AL average: 234 RS, 231 RA over 55 games
Orioles: 234 RS, 215 RA over 53 games (scaled to 55 games: 242 RS, 223 RA)

This suggests that the Orioles have had above-average hitting and below-average pitching in the first half, while both hitting and pitching regressed to average in the second half. Granted, OBP and hitting with RISP (or lack of thereof) are areas of concern... but it seems to me that this team's greatest weakness is still pitching.