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http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/...dervalued-overvalued-rbs-2015-nfl-draft-class
By John Moore
In the wake of the NFL combine, many are left wondering what to make of the workout numbers. While the 40-yard dash traditionally gets most of the attention, do we have a sense of how important it is relative to the other measurements? For this article, we will be examining which workout numbers carry the most weight for the running back position and what each might tell us about future success.
Before we get to the workout data, let's take a step a back and realize that, while the combine drills do have utility in forecasting future production, they are merely one part of the equation. My research has found that there are three critical components in the recipe for success (in chart, at right):
Through the paradigm of on-field production and workout performances, here are some of my system's most undervalued and overvalued running backs at this point in the evaluation process.
The undervalued runners
David Johnson, Northern Iowa
Weight: 224 pounds
40 time: 4.50 seconds
Three-cone: 6.82 seconds
This small-school runner amassed 1,553 rushing yards in 2014 and earned praise for his showing at the Senior Bowl, but his combine performance will be the real reason his name garners more attention in the next two months. His size-speed-agility combination is in rarified air along with the likes of Ladainian Tomlinson and, without considering possible draft position, he ranks as my No. 4 back in this class. For reference, Mel Kiper Jr. had Johnson as his No. 6 back before the combine and it seems likely he could rise as more people take notice.
Karlos Williams, Florida State
Weight: 230 pounds
40 time: 4.48 seconds
Three-cone: 7.16 seconds
Perhaps it should be no surprise that Williams, who played defensive back at FSU for two seasons, proved to be so athletic at the combine. He had the second best size-speed-agility combination behind only David Johnson. Despite receiving a lot of NFL attention before the 2014 season, Williams rushed for only 689 yards and is now outside Kiper's top 10 runners. Physically similar to Steven Jackson and Rashad Jennings, Williams is currently my eighth-ranked runner and I'm willing to look past his low rushing yardage total in light of Florida State's talented and option-rich offense.
Jay Ajayi, Boise State
Weight: 221 pounds
40 time: 4.57 seconds
Three-cone: 7.10 seconds
Whereas Kiper ranked Ajayi as the No. 8 runner in this class before the combine, in my opinion he is the No. 3 back. Ajay ran for 1,823 yards in 2015 and found the end zone 1.4 times per game during his college career. Despite often getting lumped in with the second tier of running backs, I think Ajayi is hot on the heels of Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley, while sporting a physical profile that is almost identical to Gordon's.
Holding steady
Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
Weight: 215 pounds
40 time: 4.52 seconds
Three-cone: 7.04 seconds
Since 2001 the average first-round running back has weighed 218 pounds, run a 4.45 40-yard dash and completed the three-cone drill in 6.98 seconds. While Melvin Gordon falls just shy of those standards, his 2,587 rushing yards in 2014 surpasses all other first-round backs of that time frame. His combination of production and measurable data validate his first-round appeal.
Malcolm Brown, Texas
Weight: 224 pounds
40 time: 4.62 seconds
Three-cone: 6.86 seconds
In 2011, Brown was the No. 1 high school recruit in Texas and, while remaining consistently productive throughout his college career, never became a star. At the combine he came in eight pounds heavier than the average back, but still managed to produce a near-average 40 time and significantly below-average three-cone drill. Currently ranked outside the top 10, I see him as comparable to Stevan Ridley and a potential steal in the middle rounds.
Todd Gurley, Georgia, and Tevin Coleman, Indiana
Mel Kiper's Nos. 2 and 3-ranked backs both missed the combine due to injury. For Gurley, his on-field production was so good that, even without workout data, I project him as a top-two back in this class. For Coleman, who is expected to perform at Indiana's April 15 pro day, I'm more cautious and currently have him as my No. 5 back in the class.
Cause for concern
Duke Johnson, Miami
Weight: 207 pounds
40 time: 4.54 seconds
Three-cone: DNP
Johnson's 1,652 rushing yards and propensity for rushing and receiving touchdowns help his case to be a top-100 pick, but, for a guy rumored to be a tremendous athlete, it's concerning that his size-speed profile is below average. Of the laundry list of similar size/speed players, Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy and Giovani Bernard have been the most productive, but all of them had outstanding three-cone times of 6.91 or faster. The fact that Duke Johnson skipped the agility drills is a huge red flag and could indicate that he feared his results would be poor. Before the combine he ranked as Kiper's No. 5 runner and I currently have him at No. 7, with the downside possibility he'll end up as low as my No. 10-ranked back in this class.
Jeremy Langford, Michigan State
Weight: 208 pounds
40 time: 4.42 seconds
Three-cone: 7.22 seconds
Unlike Duke Johnson, Langford actually tested above-average for speed, but falls in my rankings due to his agility. Despite his strong production, his overall profile seems similar to roster-worthy but unspectacular talents such as Jordan Todman and Edwin Baker. Appearing as Kiper's No. 10 runner before the combine, I have him at No. 13.
By John Moore
In the wake of the NFL combine, many are left wondering what to make of the workout numbers. While the 40-yard dash traditionally gets most of the attention, do we have a sense of how important it is relative to the other measurements? For this article, we will be examining which workout numbers carry the most weight for the running back position and what each might tell us about future success.
Before we get to the workout data, let's take a step a back and realize that, while the combine drills do have utility in forecasting future production, they are merely one part of the equation. My research has found that there are three critical components in the recipe for success (in chart, at right):
Through the paradigm of on-field production and workout performances, here are some of my system's most undervalued and overvalued running backs at this point in the evaluation process.
The undervalued runners
David Johnson, Northern Iowa
Weight: 224 pounds
40 time: 4.50 seconds
Three-cone: 6.82 seconds
This small-school runner amassed 1,553 rushing yards in 2014 and earned praise for his showing at the Senior Bowl, but his combine performance will be the real reason his name garners more attention in the next two months. His size-speed-agility combination is in rarified air along with the likes of Ladainian Tomlinson and, without considering possible draft position, he ranks as my No. 4 back in this class. For reference, Mel Kiper Jr. had Johnson as his No. 6 back before the combine and it seems likely he could rise as more people take notice.
Karlos Williams, Florida State
Weight: 230 pounds
40 time: 4.48 seconds
Three-cone: 7.16 seconds
Perhaps it should be no surprise that Williams, who played defensive back at FSU for two seasons, proved to be so athletic at the combine. He had the second best size-speed-agility combination behind only David Johnson. Despite receiving a lot of NFL attention before the 2014 season, Williams rushed for only 689 yards and is now outside Kiper's top 10 runners. Physically similar to Steven Jackson and Rashad Jennings, Williams is currently my eighth-ranked runner and I'm willing to look past his low rushing yardage total in light of Florida State's talented and option-rich offense.
Jay Ajayi, Boise State
Weight: 221 pounds
40 time: 4.57 seconds
Three-cone: 7.10 seconds
Whereas Kiper ranked Ajayi as the No. 8 runner in this class before the combine, in my opinion he is the No. 3 back. Ajay ran for 1,823 yards in 2015 and found the end zone 1.4 times per game during his college career. Despite often getting lumped in with the second tier of running backs, I think Ajayi is hot on the heels of Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley, while sporting a physical profile that is almost identical to Gordon's.
Holding steady
Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
Weight: 215 pounds
40 time: 4.52 seconds
Three-cone: 7.04 seconds
Since 2001 the average first-round running back has weighed 218 pounds, run a 4.45 40-yard dash and completed the three-cone drill in 6.98 seconds. While Melvin Gordon falls just shy of those standards, his 2,587 rushing yards in 2014 surpasses all other first-round backs of that time frame. His combination of production and measurable data validate his first-round appeal.
Malcolm Brown, Texas
Weight: 224 pounds
40 time: 4.62 seconds
Three-cone: 6.86 seconds
In 2011, Brown was the No. 1 high school recruit in Texas and, while remaining consistently productive throughout his college career, never became a star. At the combine he came in eight pounds heavier than the average back, but still managed to produce a near-average 40 time and significantly below-average three-cone drill. Currently ranked outside the top 10, I see him as comparable to Stevan Ridley and a potential steal in the middle rounds.
Todd Gurley, Georgia, and Tevin Coleman, Indiana
Mel Kiper's Nos. 2 and 3-ranked backs both missed the combine due to injury. For Gurley, his on-field production was so good that, even without workout data, I project him as a top-two back in this class. For Coleman, who is expected to perform at Indiana's April 15 pro day, I'm more cautious and currently have him as my No. 5 back in the class.
Cause for concern
Duke Johnson, Miami
Weight: 207 pounds
40 time: 4.54 seconds
Three-cone: DNP
Johnson's 1,652 rushing yards and propensity for rushing and receiving touchdowns help his case to be a top-100 pick, but, for a guy rumored to be a tremendous athlete, it's concerning that his size-speed profile is below average. Of the laundry list of similar size/speed players, Frank Gore, LeSean McCoy and Giovani Bernard have been the most productive, but all of them had outstanding three-cone times of 6.91 or faster. The fact that Duke Johnson skipped the agility drills is a huge red flag and could indicate that he feared his results would be poor. Before the combine he ranked as Kiper's No. 5 runner and I currently have him at No. 7, with the downside possibility he'll end up as low as my No. 10-ranked back in this class.
Jeremy Langford, Michigan State
Weight: 208 pounds
40 time: 4.42 seconds
Three-cone: 7.22 seconds
Unlike Duke Johnson, Langford actually tested above-average for speed, but falls in my rankings due to his agility. Despite his strong production, his overall profile seems similar to roster-worthy but unspectacular talents such as Jordan Todman and Edwin Baker. Appearing as Kiper's No. 10 runner before the combine, I have him at No. 13.
