Top Ten All-Time QB Prospects

[BINGO]

Robert Griffin should have been in the top 15:


Top 10 all-time QB prospects
Kiper reveals his grades for elite college QBs before they were drafted
Originally Published: April 11, 2013
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider

John Elway was a terrific prospect and had a great career after being drafted No. 1 in 1983.

I put out my first draft guide in 1979. This year will be No. 35. That first guide was a full six years before the first NFL scouting combine. Back then, there were no online prospect guides and no recruiting rankings to track talent down to the high school level, and the draft looked something like this. For me, evaluating prospects was all about getting as much tape as I could find (there was no ESPN GamePlan), and making hundreds and hundreds of phone calls (no cellphones, either!) to coaches, scouts and front-office folks who would listen and evaluators at every level. You couldn't watch a verified 40-yard dash time on live TV; instead, you had to triangulate and weed out truth from fiction. It wasn't easy.

But throughout all this time, I've kept the same 10-point grading scale, so even as the athletes changed, we can compare today where players stood among their prospect peers over a generation.

So, some parameters for what you see below:

1. The ranking is based on the final draft grade before the draft, and it goes back to 1979, my first draft guide. It's clear to me now I graded a little easier when I was younger. I didn't have the point of reference I do today.

2. The grades do not reflect NFL performance. (You'll see.) I printed these grades and simply went back through every book. I have to live with the busts.

3. There are some ties on grades, so I had to break those ties without a great deal of science. But again, I didn't break ties based on NFL production.


Here are my top 10 all-time quarterbacks based on draft grades.



1. John Elway, Stanford (No. 1 pick, 1983)

Grade: 9.9

A generation later, Elway's skill set and pedigree would look just as impressive. His arm strength was legendary and would stand up to the strongest arms in the current NFL. He wasn't just smart in a traditional sense with obvious academic intelligence; he also was the son of an innovative coach in Jack Elway and was perfectly tailored to enter an era in part defined by the growth of the passing game under innovators such as Bill Walsh. It's fair to say Elway made his draft grade look accurate.



2. Andrew Luck, Stanford (No. 1 pick, 2012)

Grade: 9.8

Highly accurate, highly intelligent, highly prepared and highly adaptable, Luck was a true modern prospect in the sense that the innate skills became obvious early in his career at Stanford. His NFL rookie season showed off not just what we all could see, but fans also got to see what kind of an athlete Luck is. Great size, strength and durability are just add-ons to an already exceptionally promising profile.


3. Jim Kelly, Miami (No. 14 pick, 1983)

Grade: 9.7

The third QB off the board in 1983, Kelly was a great prospect not just because of the arm, accuracy and good size (6-foot-3, 215 pounds), but because he was extremely competitive and could read the field from both sides of the ball. I've noted it previously, but he wouldn't have gone to Miami if Penn State and Joe Paterno had recruited him as a QB; Paterno wanted him to play linebacker. Kelly was one of the big early names in the USFL, but he proved Hall of Fame-worthy in the NFL.



4. Drew Bledsoe, Washington State (No. 1 pick, 1993)

Grade: 9.7

Just a natural QB. Bledsoe had a low arm slot and wasn't going to beat most of the guys blocking for him in a race, but he had uncanny accuracy, a very strong arm, and the ability to make quick reads and snap off throws all over the field with ease. He quietly put up major numbers, too. Bledsoe is 10th all-time in passing yards, seventh in completions and 15th in touchdowns.



5. Peyton Manning, Tennessee (No. 1 pick, 1998)

Grade: 9.7

The Colts … chose wisely. I'll hear Manning described retrospectively as a perfect prospect, but there were questions on arm strength and about performance in big moments. Manning's arm got stronger in the NFL, and it's almost impossible to project the level of professionalism -- obsession, even -- that Manning has when it comes to preparation and the science of passing. A first-ballot Hall of Famer.



6. Ryan Leaf, Washington State (No. 2 pick, 1998)

Grade: 9.7

The mistake you can make with Leaf is assuming you wouldn't make the same mistake again. That's wrong. Leaf was a fantastic prospect and would be one today based on what we knew. Huge arm, great size, even the intangibles were there. He was a winner, a player who made others around him better in college and played well on big stages when given the chance. Who knows what would have happened to Leaf if he hadn't started on an awful team as a rookie. He simply wasn't prepared to fail and bounce back. He failed and never truly recovered.



7. Vinny Testaverde, Miami (No. 1 pick, 1987)

Grade: 9.7

A big, accurate, smart passer, Testaverde had such an odd NFL career. He was practically a bust given his draft slot, and yet there he was in 1998 at age 35, going 12-1 as a starter with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He could never truly carry a team or make a lot of really bad teams good on his own, but I think few will ever doubt his ability to play QB, which is why he did it for so long.



8. Andre Ware, Houston (No. 7 pick, 1990)

Grade: 9.7

I loved Ware. We now see the type of college system he was in as a potential warning sign -- the Houston Cougars under Ware could put up 70 points like nothing, and defenses simply weren't prepared to stop them at the time -- but we didn't know that at the time, and Ware really was an accurate passer with an above-average arm. He was smart and capable of good reads. But he too never really recovered from a bad start to his NFL career. And yes, this was the famous Jeff George draft -- I had him No. 84 on my board and he went No. 1. I still like my grade.



9. Troy Aikman, UCLA (No. 1 pick, 1989)

Grade: 9.6

Great arm, and great, great accuracy. It can't be underscored enough just how precise a passer Aikman was in the era in which he played. The NFL of today would make Aikman dominant, and he was very good for the era in which he played. People forget he transferred out of Oklahoma to find a better place to develop as a passer. A cinch for the No. 1 pick in 1989, and he went on to have a great career.



10. (Tie) Boomer Esiason, Maryland (No. 38 pick, 1984)

Grade: 9.6

Now we'd see Esiason's 54.2 completion percentage in college as a disastrous number, but it wasn't a bad one then. Esiason wasn't surrounded with great talent at Maryland and willed his team to an ACC title. I loved the upside and the competitiveness, and he put together a great NFL career.



10. (Tie) Steve Young (No. 1 supplemental, 1984)

Grade: 9.6

Extremely accurate, Young didn't have a huge arm and really had to learn the position after being recruited as an option quarterback, but the natural ability was there. Young wasn't brilliant in any one area save for his remarkable ability as a scrambler, but he made himself great, at both the college and NFL levels.



Next best quarterbacks

• Eli Manning (Ole Miss, 2004) He fell off as a junior, but Eli showed a flair for the dramatic and clutch play even in college.

• Jim Everett (Purdue, 1986) The No. 3 pick in the draft, Everett had a great presence in the pocket and a big arm. Purdue is underrated as a QB producer, huh?

• Carson Palmer (USC, 2003) I questioned his ceiling, but the downside for Palmer was high because he's such a gifted thrower of the ball.

• Matt Ryan (Boston College, 2008) Not surprised he's such a good QB. I think what surprised me was how seamless the transition was for Ryan. Accute talent.

• Matthew Stafford (Georgia, 2009) I said he'd be a No. 1 pick before he committed to Georgia. Safe to say I think he's pretty talented.


Mel Kiper Jr.
Football analyst

 

[BINGO]

Both LT and AP deserves to be on this list. And maybe Curtis Enis as well:


NFL Draft 2013
Top 10 all-time RB prospects
Kiper reveals his grades for elite college RBs before they were drafted
Originally Published: April 11, 2013
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider

After a prolific college career at Southern Methodist, Eric Dickerson dominated with the NFL's Rams.

I put out my first draft guide in 1979. This year will be No. 35. That first guide was a full six years before the first NFL scouting combine. Back then, there were no online prospect guides, no recruiting rankings to track talent down to the high school level, and the draft looked something like this. For me, evaluating prospects was all about getting as much tape as I could find (there was no ESPN GamePlan) and making hundreds and hundreds of phone calls (no cell phones, either!) to coaches, scouts, front-office folks that would listen and evaluators at every level. You couldn't watch a verified 40-yard time on live TV; instead, you had to triangulate and weed out truth from fiction. It wasn't easy.

But throughout all of this time, I've kept the same 10-point grading scale, so even as the athletes changed, we can compare today where players stood among their prospect peers over a generation. So, some parameters for what you see below:

1. The ranking is based on the final draft grade before the draft, and it goes back to 1979, my first draft guide. It's clear to me now I graded a little easier when I was younger. I didn't have the point of reference I do today.

2. The grades do not reflect NFL performance. (You'll see.) I printed these grades and simply went back through every book. I have to live with the busts.

3. There are some ties on grades, so I had to break those ties without a great deal of science. But again, I didn't break ties based on NFL production.



Here are my top 10 all-time running backs based on draft grades.



1. Eric Dickerson, Southern Methodist (No. 2 pick, 1983)

Grade: 9.8

Tall and powerful, Dickerson had an upright running style that made him look like a sprinter at the 60-yard mark -- right up until the split second before contact, when he'd drop his shoulder and use his 220-pound frame to wipe out a linebacker or safety in his path. A superb athlete with great vision, he was a dominant NFL runner until the mileage became too much. Who knows if that 2,105-yard season in 1984 will be challenged again soon.



2. Curt Warner, Penn State (No. 3 pick, 1983)

Grade: 9.8

At a time when the program was on top, Warner led Penn State in rushing three consecutive seasons, and had a great blend of speed, power, short-area burst and vision. He also was really durable, which made it tough to see him tear his ACL in his second NFL season after piling up 1,449 yards as a rookie. But he came back strong and put together three more 1,000-yard seasons. Players didn't recover as well from injuries like that at the time.



3. Ricky Williams, Texas (No. 5 pick, 1999)

Grade: 9.8

The funny thing now is that you hear Williams' NFL career framed as a disappointment. He finished with more than 10,000 yards! But that's just a reminder of what kind of a prospect he was. People also forget about Williams' power. This is a guy who could run a hair more than 4.5 seconds in the 40-yard dash at 240-plus pounds. He had great durability, and showed such a limited downside, which says a lot about how some people view what really was a very good NFL career.



4. Barry Sanders, Oklahoma State (No. 3 pick, 1989)

Grade: 9.8

Over his last five NFL seasons, Sanders played 80 of a possible 80 regular-season games. When he retired at age 30, we all knew he could have continued and simply destroyed the NFL's all-time rushing record. That Sanders retired seemingly 100 percent healthy and still untouchable is in some ways a joy, however, because as a prospect he could never be touched. I don't know if we'll ever see a college season as good as Sanders' 1988 campaign, when he cracked 300 yards rushing four times. As a prospect, the only question was whether he could hold up when defenses were finally able to put consistent hits on him, and not simply get some jersey and pull him down. But they never really did.



5. Billy Sims, Oklahoma (No. 1 pick, 1980)

Grade: 9.7

A great college runner, often on big stages, Sims was a sure thing if healthy. He could turn a small seam into a big gain through a mix of power, speed and shiftiness. He made the Pro Bowl each of his first three seasons, and simply couldn't play after his knee was mangled at a time when medicine couldn't do what it can today.



6. George Rogers, South Carolina (No. 1 pick, 1981)

Grade: 9.7

The guy who was the lead blocker for Rogers at South Carolina went to my high school -- but Rogers would have been a good prospect anyway. A big back for the era at 220 pounds, Rogers was great at spinning off tacklers and using his patience to find cutback lanes, even when his power was adequate enough to take defenders on. He led the NFL in rushing as a rookie, and played seven pretty good seasons in the league.



7. Edgerrin James, Miami (No. 4 pick, 1999)

Grade: 9.7

Edgerrin James is the only running back in the history of University of Miami football to rush for two straight 1,000-plus yard seasons.

For some reason, the fact that Bill Polian shocked so many people by taking James instead of Ricky Williams in that draft makes people think James was a reach, a sleeper the Colts were taking a risk on. Well, when you consider that James could run a sub-4.4 40-yard dash at near 200 pounds, had exceptional vision and short-area burst, blocked blitzing linebackers like it was fun and had soft hands as a receiver, you're less blinded by the narrative of that draft year. More than 15,500 NFL yards later…



8. Reggie Bush, USC (No. 2 pick, 2006)

Grade: 9.7

He's doomed to be underrated as an NFL player because of his great college career and the probation that followed, but what a prospect. Possessing a sprinter's speed (I had him at a 4.33 40-yard dash), exceptional change-of-direction skills, hands like a wide receiver and the ability to scare defenses wherever you lined him up, Bush offered a lot and still does. The guy averaged 8.7 yards per carry as a junior.



9. Blair Thomas, Penn State (No. 2 pick, 1990)

Grade: 9.7

A very good college player -- and a better athlete than people who saw him struggle as a pro realized -- Thomas is one of the few players on this list who never really came close to his full potential in the NFL. He finished with just 2,236 career yards in the NFL and saw injuries usher him out of the league.



10. (Tie) Freeman McNeil, UCLA (No. 3, 1981)

Grade: 9.6

Given the era we're in now, the reported 40 time I had on McNeil in 1981 was just 4.7. Think about that -- a No. 2 overall pick at running back running a 4.65. What Freeman had was the ability to do everything in an era when few backs did. He was an outstanding all-purpose guy, a runner, blocker and very good pass-catcher -- a guy perhaps a little ahead of his time.



10. (Tie) Marshall Faulk, San Diego State (No. 2 pick, 1994)

Grade: 9.6

He didn't see the best competition in the WAC, and it made you wonder if he could be as explosive at the next level, but he proved he could. Faulk was a big play waiting to happen, a brilliant runner off the edge, and, like Bush, a great pass-catcher. I probably should have had him a little higher.



Next best running backs

• Bo Jackson (Auburn, 1987): At the time, he was headed for baseball. But what an incredible talent.

• Garrison Hearst (Georgia, 1993): Injuries robbed him of a better NFL career.

• Marcus Allen (USC, 1982): A very good prospect who made himself a great NFL player.

• Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma, 2007): Brilliant talent, though I hated to see all the carries he endured. He's everything we could have hoped.

• Emmitt Smith (Florida, 1990): Very good, and came into a very good situation.



Mel Kiper Jr.
Football analyst

 

[Flyingiguana]

horrible list

 

[TheNinerMind]

horrible list

Kind of missed the point. Not really a list of the best quarterbacks. Just those made the best predraft impressions on Mel kiper

 

[Flyingiguana]

Kind of missed the point. Not really a list of the best quarterbacks. Just those made the best predraft impressions on Mel kiper

as i said


horrible list

 

[ChrisPozz]

as i said


horrible list

Why?

 

[BINGO]

Top all-time secondary prospects
Kiper reveals grades for top 10 corners, safeties before they were drafted
Originally Published: April 12, 2013
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider

Ronnie Lott (left) and Deion Sanders were two of the top secondary prospects of all time.

I put out my first draft guide in 1979. This year will be No. 35. That first guide was a full six years before the first NFL scouting combine. Back then, there were no online prospect guides and no recruiting rankings to track talent down to the high school level, and the draft looked something like this. For me, evaluating prospects was all about getting as much tape as I could find (there was no ESPN GamePlan), and making hundreds and hundreds of phone calls (no cellphones, either!) to coaches, scouts and front-office folks who would listen and to evaluators at every level. You couldn't watch a verified 40-yard dash time on live TV; instead, you had to triangulate and weed out truth from fiction. It wasn't easy.

But all this time, I've kept the same 10-point grading scale, so even as the athletes changed, we can compare today where players stood among their prospect peers over a generation.

So, some parameters for what you see below:

1. The ranking is based on the final draft grade before the draft, and it goes back to 1979, my first draft guide. It's clear to me now I graded a little easier when I was younger. I didn't have the point of reference I do today.

2. The grades do not reflect NFL performance. (You'll see.) I printed these grades and simply went back through every book. I have to live with the busts.

3. There are some ties on grades, so I had to break those ties without a great deal of science. But again, I didn't break ties based on NFL production.

Here are my top 10 all-time secondary prospects based on draft grades.



1. Ronnie Lott, USC (No. 8 pick, 1981)

Grade: 9.9

He practically belongs on this list twice. During his time in the NFL, Lott became iconic as an enforcer from the safety position, which isn't a bad thing, but seemed to make people forget that Lott was a quick-twitch, technically sound ball-hawking All-American at cornerback for USC. And Lott didn't just convert to safety right away once the 49ers drafted him. No, he was a Pro Bowl cornerback in each of his first four seasons in the NFL, and didn't flip to free safety until 1985. He certainly justified the draft grade, and as much as he was a durable NFL player during 14 seasons, don't forget that he played 20 playoff games, the equivalent of another season-plus.




2. Deion Sanders, Florida State (No. 5 pick, 1989)

Grade: 9.9

The flash, bravado and dancing can't take away from the fact that Sanders wasn't just a brilliant football talent as a cornerback and a kick returner, he's one of the great athletes of his or any generation. Baseball, track, football -- he starred in all of them. Sanders also helped put the value of the scouting combine on display, as people still discuss and debate what his official 40-yard dash time was in 1989. I had him safely down at sub-4.3. He finished his NFL career with 53 interceptions, which is impressive considering how reluctant QBs could be to test him.




3. Kenny Easley, UCLA (No. 4 pick, 1981)

Grade: 9.8

A phenomenal all-around athlete, Easley played best in big games. In an era when so few games were nationally televised, that certainly didn't hurt his standing among evaluators constantly scrambling for tape on every player. He was a three-time All-American at UCLA, and really should have been considered the premier safety in the NFL during the mid-1980s. I think he was on a Hall of Fame path, but had to retire early due to kidney issues. He eventually got a transplant and is alive and well today.



4. Troy Vincent, Wisconsin (No. 7 pick, 1992)

Grade: 9.8

He wasn't a freak athlete, but Vincent read the game at a high level, and he always got his hands on passes. He was what you want in a lockdown corner. He also had a ton of experience, because Wisconsin coach Barry Alvarez had him on the field about an hour after he arrived on campus. He became a star for the Philadelphia Eagles, and had a largely healthy 15-year NFL career.



5. Shawn Springs, Ohio State (No. 3 pick, 1997)

Grade: 9.7

Ohio State coach John Cooper redshirted Springs, who started every game for the next three seasons. I recall Springs had pretty average stats as a junior, and then when you'd watch the tape, you'd see that teams didn't even bother to look his way. Springs was a high school running back and played at about 200 pounds, so he could completely destroy the timing of routes in press coverage. And if you beat him, he could turn and run a 40-yard dash in the 4.35 range. He also was a great leaper. Springs had a good NFL career, but by no means a great one. Regardless, he was a fantastic prospect.




6. Charles Woodson, Michigan (No. 4 pick, 1998)

Grade: 9.7

Charles Woodson has played more than 200 NFL games and been selected to eight Pro Bowls.

Give Al Davis some credit here. Woodson went one pick after Andre Wadsworth, one pick before Curtis Enis. Injury bust, Hall of Famer, injury bust. Woodson was obviously a fantastic prospect, an instinctive corner who could do everything pretty well from a technical standpoint, but had a gift for freelancing effectively. If you wanted to ding him on one thing, it might be that he really wasn't a total burner. His NFL career arc is pretty fascinating, too. He went to the Pro Bowl in each of his first four seasons, didn't go for six seasons, then went for four straight years from 2008 to 2011, while twice being named All-Pro. At 206 NFL games, he's had a great run.




7. Rod Woodson, Purdue (No. 10 pick, 1987)

Grade: 9.6

Arguably the best NFL player to ever set foot in the secondary, Woodson was a fantastic prospect, a great technical player with elite athleticism -- he was a star hurdler at the NCAA level -- and had good height and strength for the position. In Pittsburgh, he was All-Pro a remarkable five times in a six-season stretch at corner, was one of the league's most dangerous returners and showed a new path to retirement by moving to safety with Baltimore, where he racked up another four Pro Bowl appearances, giving him 11 for his career. Truly great.



8. Champ Bailey, Georgia (No. 7 pick, 1999)

Grade: 9.6

Without overstating it, I think Bailey was fully capable of playing wide receiver at a high level in the NFL if that were the course he had pursued. But he was a star corner at Georgia, and his recovery speed was special, as evidenced by an official 4.28 40-yard dash time at the combine. Every year we talk about Bailey inevitably converting to safety, and every year he turns in another Pro Bowl-caliber season at corner for the Broncos. Bailey has played 14 NFL seasons and missed the Pro Bowl only twice. Amazing.



9. Mark Haynes, Colorado (No. 8 pick, 1980)

Grade: 9.6

A very good college player, Haynes wasn't a huge name then and certainly isn't one now. But if you look at the 1980 NFL draft and pick out first-rounders that were All-Pro more than once, you'd be left with just Haynes and Anthony Munoz. He played 137 NFL games, and was a star for the Giants early in his career.



10. Patrick Peterson, LSU (No. 5 pick, 2011)

Grade: 9.5

He went into the draft as the No. 1 NFL prospect on my Big Board, the best overall player in the draft. Peterson is a gifted athlete, a corner that plays near 220 pounds and can really disrupt routes with his strength, and has the pure speed to run with anybody in the league. He ran a 4.34 40-yard dash and jumped 38 inches at the combine, and was effective as a rookie even as he learned the finer points of the position. This is all before mentioning his exceptional skills as a returner. In two NFL seasons, he's been an All-Pro once, and a Pro Bowl player twice. There'll be more honors to come. Peterson won't even turn 23 until July.



Next-best secondary prospects

• Ted Watts (Texas Tech, 1981): I really liked him as a prospect, but the No. 21 overall pick had an average NFL career.

• Bennie Blades (Miami, 1988): A part of the Miami revival, Blades had a good NFL career in Detroit.

• Antonio Langham (Alabama, 1994): Never quite the pro I thought he'd be, Langham played seven NFL seasons.


Mel Kiper Jr.
Football analyst

 

[BINGO]

I'm surprised he didn't include Terrell Buckley, Sean Taylor, and Steve Atwater on that list.

 

[BINGO]

This list is pretty good. However, he needed to find a way to include these 3 men (Peppers, Suh, and Fairley):

NFL Draft 2013

Top 10 all-time D-line prospects
Kiper reveals his grades for top college D-linemen before they were drafted
Originally Published: April 12, 2013
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider

Bruce Smith delivered on his tremendous potential in the NFL.

I put out my first draft guide in 1979. This year will be No. 35. That first guide was a full six years before the first NFL scouting combine. Back then, there were no online prospect guides and no recruiting rankings to track talent down to the high school level, and the draft looked something like this. For me, evaluating prospects was all about getting as much tape as I could find (there was no ESPN GamePlan), and making hundreds and hundreds of phone calls (no cellphones, either!) to coaches, scouts and front-office folks who would listen, and to evaluators at every level. You couldn't watch a verified 40-yard dash time on live TV; instead, you had to triangulate and weed out truth from fiction. It wasn't easy.

But all this time, I've kept the same 10-point grading scale, so even as the athletes changed, we can compare today where players stood among their prospect peers over a generation.

So, some parameters for what you see below:

1. The ranking is based on the final draft grade before the draft, and it goes back to 1979, my first draft guide. It's clear to me now I graded a little easier when I was younger. I didn't have the point of reference I do today.

2. The grades do not reflect NFL performance. (You'll see.) I printed these grades and simply went back through every book. I have to live with the busts.

3. There are some ties on grades, so I had to break those ties without a great deal of science. But again, I didn't break ties based on NFL production.

That said, here they are. For this group, there are great ones, but it's sad the degree to which injuries took their toll.


1. Bruce Smith, Virginia Tech (No. 1 pick, 1985)

Grade: 9.9

Well, No. 1 is a keeper. Smith finished his NFL career with exactly 200 sacks, and had 13 seasons with double-digit sacks. And this was no surprise. Smith was a relentlessly disruptive defensive player for the Hokies, and -- I love this stat -- finished his career with tackles behind the line of scrimmage that totaled more than 500 yards in losses. It was as if teams occasionally had to hand the ball off the wrong way. Smith was a big edge rusher -- he played between 265 and 280 pounds -- and had great reach and long arms at 6-foot-4, but he had a great burst and could chase you down. He could run the 40 in the 4.7-seconds range.



2. Steve Emtman, Washington (No. 1 pick, 1992)

Grade: 9.9

To watch Emtman's college tape during his junior season at Washington was to witness a guy who seemed totally unblockable. It was as if he and the offensive lineman were the magnets of the same pole -- the O-lineman just bounced into the backfield. For perspective, Emtman was No. 4 in the Heisman voting -- as a defensive tackle.

The Colts had the top two picks in 1992, and decided to remake their defense by going with Emtman at No. 1 and Quentin Coryatt No. 2. It didn't happen. Emtman blew out his left knee as a rookie, tore a patellar tendon in his right knee the next season, then dealt with nerve damage after a disk problem. I hate to call him a bust, because his body simply betrayed him in the end.



3. Andre Wadsworth, Florida State (No. 3 pick, 1998)

Grade: 9.8

Initially a defensive tackle, the Seminoles eventually moved Wadsworth to the edge and unleashed a pass-rushing monster. He was a sack machine as a senior, and cemented his prospect status by running 4.65 at nearly 280 pounds, while also displaying great strength, agility and the ability to bend on the edge. Wadsworth might be a statistical bust, but his knees also didn't allow him to succeed. By his third and last season, he was having another major knee surgery, the third of his career on his right knee.



4. Kenneth Sims, Texas (No. 1 pick, 1982)

Grade: 9.8

A tall defensive tackle, Sims was 6-5 and "big" for that era at 275 pounds. He was one of those guys where you wonder about how the modern scouting environment would have viewed him. At the time, coaches raved about his intangibles and attitude -- I heard about how he was the guy to go visit other players in the hospital after injuries and surgery -- and combine that with All-American production, and you had a great prospect. But his NFL career was merely average, and he developed a reputation as being uninterested. He has just 17 career sacks.



5. Ray Childress, Texas A&M (No. 3 pick, 1985)

Grade: 9.8

There was a thought he could go No. 1 to Buffalo, but the Bills probably made the right call in taking Bruce Smith. Childress was no slouch, however. He was a great sack artist at A&M, and was extremely versatile. His NFL sack totals could have been higher, but when Houston asked him to move inside in a 4-3 it was implementing, he did, and was extremely effective. Childress went to four straight Pro Bowls as a D-tackle.


Tony Casillas was known for his incredible strength as a draft prospect.


6. Tony Casillas, Oklahoma (No. 2 pick, 1986)

Grade: 9.8

A great D-tackle for the Sooners, Casillas was something of a legend for his strength. I was told by multiple witnesses that Casillas had benched 475 pounds, a huge number at the time. And I had him at just 277 pounds. He wasn't a star in the NFL, but he got off to a great start. He was really active and had a great knack for finding the ball amid the chaos. His 152 tackles in 1989 is pretty extraordinary for a D-tackle.



7. Dan Wilkinson, Ohio State (No. 1 pick, 1994)

Grade: 9.8

"Big Daddy" was an exceptional prospect as a disruptive interior force with great burst, power and agility. He was productive, but also put on a show for scouts in running a 40 in under 4.8 at more than 310 pounds. I hear him described as a bust, but that's really only based on the hype. The guy played 195 games and racked up 54½ sacks from the defensive tackle position. He never became the star I thought he'd be, but his natural talent kept him around a long time.



8. Mike Bell, Colorado State (No. 2 pick, 1979)

Grade: 9.7

He was the best player in the 1979 draft. I had him listed at just 262 pounds - but I say "just" because he was plenty big for a defensive end in that era. I compared him in the guide to Bob Lilly, a longtime great for the Cowboys. Bell finished his NFL career with just 40 sacks, but for perspective, they weren't keeping the stat officially until 1983, his fifth NFL season. And Bell had 23½ sacks in the first two seasons the stat was counted. He played in 135 NFL games and started 100, all for the Chiefs.



9. Peter Boulware, Florida State (No. 4 pick, 1997)

Grade: 9.7

He was on the radar pretty early. No program churned out NFL talent in the 1990s like Florida State, and Boulware jumped on the scene by leading the ACC in sacks as a sophomore. He simply dominated as a junior and had every trait you would want out of a pass-rusher. He was the NFL defensive rookie of the year, and retired after eight seasons (and some injury trouble) as Baltimore's all-time sacks leader. He's a revered veteran of the franchise.



10. Darrell Russell, USC (No. 2 pick, 1997)

Grade: 9.7

Russell really belonged on a football field, because things fell apart when he was elsewhere. A freakish athlete for his size, Russell could run sub-4.9 at about 320 pounds, and he was a great blend of power and quickness on the defensive interior. By his second year in the NFL, you could argue nobody was better. But that was the high point for Russell. He went to one more Pro Bowl in 1998, then his performance started to dip and suspensions for banned substances started to pile up. He was essentially out of football at just 29 when he was killed in a car accident.



Next best defensive linemen


• Jerome Brown (Miami, 1987): Could have been a Pro Hall of Fame player. Died too young in a car accident at age 27.

• Courtney Brown (Penn State, 2000): A bust based on where he was taken; the traits never turned into production.

• Mario Williams (North Carolina State, 2006): He has justified the much-debated selection ahead of Reggie Bush.

• Jon Hand (Alabama, 1986): Never an NFL star, he had a decent career in nine seasons.

• Cortez Kennedy (Miami, 1990): A Hall of Famer and arguably the greatest Seahawks player ever, up there with Steve Largent.

• Bryant Young, Marty Lyons, Jacob Green and Neil Smith are a few others who were close.


Mel Kiper Jr.
Football analyst

 

[Flyingiguana]

Why?

manning and leaf as prospects should be right up there with. bledsoe was overrated and some thought mirer was the better qb prospect. kiper also seems to grab big arms more than athletic guys.

eli manning close to top 10 but no griffon or culpepper? what about chad pennington? he was absolutly amazing at marshall and had maybe the best accuracy i've seen from a qb at the college level.

 

[Flyingiguana]

how is julius peppers and mario williams not in the top 5?

 

[Ray_Dogg]

He should list what he had on Clusterfuck. I mean Clausen.

 

[bvanthielriceyoung]

how is julius peppers and mario williams not in the top 5?

Definitely Julius Peppers I agree with. He had a ton of hype and was very highly rated

 

[Flyingiguana]

Definitely Julius Peppers I agree with. He had a ton of hype and was very highly rated

imo he was the best defensive line prospect during my time. mario williams, courtney brown and wadsworth were also big time talents. ngata should be up there too but the defensive ends always get all the hype.

 

[Flyingiguana]

He should list what he had on Clusterfuck. I mean Clausen.

clausen went were he shoulda went. similar to drew brees. not a strong arm, but a quick and tight release. soemthing that won't get u a 9.5+ grade from anyone.

 

[MHSL82]

Robert Griffin should have been in the top 15:


Top 10 all-time QB prospects
Kiper reveals his grades for elite college QBs before they were drafted
Originally Published: April 11, 2013
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider

John Elway was a terrific prospect and had a great career after being drafted No. 1 in 1983.

Didn't want to start a new thread, so this was the most recent reference to John Elway.

According to this article, the Niners, if they could trade Joe Montana in 1983 was interested in John Elway. I wonder how he would have done here, how our offense would be with the strongest armed QB at the time, etc.

John Elway has star role in ESPN documentary about 1983 NFL draft - The Denver Post

 

[NinerSickness]

Elway had a strong arm (Marino's was stronger IMO), and he was a great "draft prospect," but what he actually did with his career is one of the most overrated performances of any QB this side of Favre , McNabb & Vick.

I actually compiled the average QB numbers for every year from 1979 to present, and Elway actually put numbers that were BELOW AVERAGE for a QB over the course of his career.

I was also surprised at how underrated Kurt Warner is based on his numbers against the average. He & Steve Young are 2 of the most underrated and under-appreciated QBs of all time IMO.

 

[MHSL82]

Elway had a strong arm (Marino's was stronger IMO), and he was a great "draft prospect," but what he actually did with his career is one of the most overrated performances of any QB this side of Favre , McNabb & Vick.

I actually compiled the average QB numbers for every year from 1979 to present, and Elway actually put numbers that were BELOW AVERAGE for a QB over the course of his career.

I was also surprised at how underrated Kurt Warner is based on his numbers against the average. He & Steve Young are 2 of the most underrated and under-appreciated QBs of all time IMO.

We need to archive and update that information. I remember it was great work. If you have it, I would appreciate a repost or update.

 

[NinerSickness]

We need to archive and update that information. I remember it was great work. If you have it, I would appreciate a repost or update.

I want to do it again some time to double check my numbers. I added every category at least twice to confirm the numbers I have, but I was staring at a calculator for a very long time & may not have been 100% accurate. I think it's 100% accurate, but I'm not 100% sure. Either way, here's what I found (oh by the way, it went up to 2009, so Manning & *Brady aren't updated):

[I compiled these by adding the top 28, 30 & then 32 QBs in the league based on how many teams were in the league at the time. I then used those numbers (passer rating, completion percentage & YPA) as the average against the total numbers of every attempt each QB ever made]

Total Numbers by year:

YEAR COMPLETIONS ATTEMPTS YARDS TD INTs
1980: 6,691 11,677 83,549 529 515
1981: 5,975 11,304 80,528 485 441
1982: 3,872 6,731 48,083 278 282
1983: 6,447 11,171 81,301 512 476
1984: 6,232 10,789 79,500 495 410
1985: 6,148 11,131 78,793 488 446
1986: 6,184 11,000 75,524 440 411
1987: 5,131 9,071 65,009 420 411
1988: 5,857 10,654 75,167 435 382
1989: 6,368 11,204 80,830 467 409
1990: 6,291 10,687 78,926 487 364
1991: 6,393 10,620 79,620 410 332
1992: 5,439 8,918 65,553 378 341
1993: 6,077 10,867 73,967 400 337
1994: 6,893 11,700 79,914 462 359
1995: 7,680 13,010 89,994 559 357
1996: 6,820 11,506 79,832 493 382
1997: 6,565 11,507 79,041 489 297
1998: 6,403 10,067 77,089 506 344
1999: 6,549 11,237 79,594 497 336
2000: 6,897 11,548 81,570 508 345
2001: 7,731 12,890 89,632 532 415
2002: 7,676 12,551 86,672 535 345
2003: 7,299 12,121 83,323 509 376
2004: 7,488 12,130 90,529 598 352
2005: 6,852 11,319 79,986 490 298
2006: 7,451 12,255 85,639 500 362
2007: 7,475 11,869 85,084 554 355
2008: 8,004 12,847 92,380 535 320
2009: 8,147 13,004 95,124 596 348

Passer rating against the average:

1. Young +16.79
2. Montana +14.32
3. Peyton +9.83
4. Warner +8.64
5. *Brady +7.81
6. Marino +6.34
7. Favre +0.02
8. Elway -0.01

Completion Percentage:

1. Young +6.20
2. Montana +6.07
3. Warner +4.53
4. Peyton +3.64
5. *Brady +1.97
6. Favre +1.70
7. Marino +0.01
8. Elway -0.01

YPA:

1. Young +0.877
2. Warner +0.850
3. Manning +0.538
4. Montana +0.370
5. Marino +0.214
6. *Brady +0.209
7. Favre +0.007
8. Elway -0.031

*and yes, the asterisks next to Brady were intentional.

I also did one for McNabb & Boomer Essiason to show ho overrated McNabb is:

McNabb: +1.50 in passer rating; -2.0% in Comp. %age; -0.17 YPA.
Essiason: +1.66 Passer rating; -0.6% Comp %age; +0.2 YPA.

 

[MHSL82]

Thanks, NinerSickness!