Top 10 QB prospects of past 3 NFL draft classes

[iowajerms]

Top 10 QB prospects of past 3 NFL draft classes: Darnold No. 1

I always believe it's helpful during the evaluation process to rank the current group of prospects among the players at the position from the previous two drafts. I recently looked up the grades I gave to the quarterbacks in the '16 and '17 draft classes and I slotted them in with this year's crop of talent. Here's the order I have them in based on their draft grade.

1) Sam Darnold, USC
Draft class: 2018
The skinny: I had very similar draft grades on each of the top four players on this list. However, I gave Darnold a slightly higher grade than Carson Wentz because of his durability and level of competition from college.

2) Carson Wentz, North Dakota State
Draft class: 2016; second overall pick, Philadelphia Eagles
The skinny: Wentz had an ideal skill set coming out of NDSU. His ability to drive the ball accurately and create with his legs made him a special prospect.

3) Josh Rosen, UCLA
Draft class: 2018
The skinny: Rosen is the best pure passer in this time frame (2016-2018). His motion, footwork and arm talent are off the charts.

4) Jared Goff, Cal
Draft class: 2016; first overall pick, Los Angeles Rams
The skinny: Goff was very smooth and accurate at Cal. He was an effortless thrower and you've seen that carry over to the NFL.

5) Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Draft class: 2018
The skinny: Mayfield is the shortest member of this group (measured in at 6-foot 5/8 and 215 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine), but I gave him a strong grade based on his touch, playmaking ability and toughness.

6) Josh Allen, Wyoming
Draft class: 2018
The skinny: Allen was an inconsistent performer at Wyoming, but his good moments are incredibly impressive. He is very capable of outplaying my draft grade.

7) Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Draft class: 2017; 12th overall pick, Houston Texans
The skinny: I had Watson as my highest-rated quarterback in last year's class, but based on early returns, I was way too low with my grade. I had concerns with his accuracy and decision making, but he cleaned up both areas last fall. He was off to a remarkable start as a rookie before suffering an ACL tear in November.

8) Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina
Draft class: 2017; second overall pick, Chicago Bears
The skinny: I loved Trubisky's talent, but he had a very small sample size of production. He was a full-time starter for only one year at UNC, but his upside was tremendous.

9) DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
Draft class: 2017; 52nd overall pick (Round 2), Cleveland Browns
The skinny: I had a big grade on Kizer heading into his final year at Notre Dame, but he struggled mightily to maintain that level of play. I ended up dropping his grade prior to the 2017 draft and he landed in a really tough spot in Cleveland. He was rushed into action before he was ready to play, and the results weren't pretty. Now, he's getting a fresh start after being traded to the Green Bay Packers earlier this month.

10) Paxton Lynch, Memphis
Draft class: 2016; 26th overall pick, Denver Broncos
The skinny: Lynch was a polarizing player coming out of Memphis. His size, arm talent and athleticism were enticing, but I had concerns about the adjustment he would have to make from his college offense to an NFL system.

 

[Rock Strongo]

Top 10 QB prospects of past 3 NFL draft classes: Darnold No. 1

I always believe it's helpful during the evaluation process to rank the current group of prospects among the players at the position from the previous two drafts. I recently looked up the grades I gave to the quarterbacks in the '16 and '17 draft classes and I slotted them in with this year's crop of talent. Here's the order I have them in based on their draft grade.

1) Sam Darnold, USC
Draft class: 2018
The skinny: I had very similar draft grades on each of the top four players on this list. However, I gave Darnold a slightly higher grade than Carson Wentz because of his durability and level of competition from college.

2) Carson Wentz, North Dakota State
Draft class: 2016; second overall pick, Philadelphia Eagles
The skinny: Wentz had an ideal skill set coming out of NDSU. His ability to drive the ball accurately and create with his legs made him a special prospect.

3) Josh Rosen, UCLA
Draft class: 2018
The skinny: Rosen is the best pure passer in this time frame (2016-2018). His motion, footwork and arm talent are off the charts.

4) Jared Goff, Cal
Draft class: 2016; first overall pick, Los Angeles Rams
The skinny: Goff was very smooth and accurate at Cal. He was an effortless thrower and you've seen that carry over to the NFL.

5) Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Draft class: 2018
The skinny: Mayfield is the shortest member of this group (measured in at 6-foot 5/8 and 215 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine), but I gave him a strong grade based on his touch, playmaking ability and toughness.

6) Josh Allen, Wyoming
Draft class: 2018
The skinny: Allen was an inconsistent performer at Wyoming, but his good moments are incredibly impressive. He is very capable of outplaying my draft grade.

7) Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Draft class: 2017; 12th overall pick, Houston Texans
The skinny: I had Watson as my highest-rated quarterback in last year's class, but based on early returns, I was way too low with my grade. I had concerns with his accuracy and decision making, but he cleaned up both areas last fall. He was off to a remarkable start as a rookie before suffering an ACL tear in November.

8) Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina
Draft class: 2017; second overall pick, Chicago Bears
The skinny: I loved Trubisky's talent, but he had a very small sample size of production. He was a full-time starter for only one year at UNC, but his upside was tremendous.

9) DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame
Draft class: 2017; 52nd overall pick (Round 2), Cleveland Browns
The skinny: I had a big grade on Kizer heading into his final year at Notre Dame, but he struggled mightily to maintain that level of play. I ended up dropping his grade prior to the 2017 draft and he landed in a really tough spot in Cleveland. He was rushed into action before he was ready to play, and the results weren't pretty. Now, he's getting a fresh start after being traded to the Green Bay Packers earlier this month.

10) Paxton Lynch, Memphis
Draft class: 2016; 26th overall pick, Denver Broncos
The skinny: Lynch was a polarizing player coming out of Memphis. His size, arm talent and athleticism were enticing, but I had concerns about the adjustment he would have to make from his college offense to an NFL system.

the last 3 should be deleted.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Mahomes not listed, list invalid.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

the last 3 should be deleted.

Next year, Trubisky is going to be a lot closer to the top of that list. He has a year under his health, much better weapons in the passing game, and a much better offensive coaching staff. Next year is the first year you can actually critique his play. He has no excuses.

 

[Rock Strongo]

Next year, Trubisky is going to be a lot closer to the top of that list. He has a year under his health, much better weapons in the passing game, and a much better offensive coaching staff. Next year is the first year you can actually critique his play. He has no excuses.

no, hes cade mcnown redux for you guys.

sorry. its what i see. i could be wrong...

 

[Fountain City Blues]

I don't understand the Darnold hype, I really don't. The ceiling is there but the floor is there too.

 

[Clayton]

I don't understand the Darnold hype, I really don't. The ceiling is there but the floor is there too.

Its the 'and mobility' part you can add to the conversation. Maybe he cleans up his footwork and the arm strength looks better.

I think rating Josh Allen that high is interesting. He seems like he should be in Ryan Mallett and Christian Hackenberg territory but certainly you figure one of these boom-bust guys has to boom eventually...

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

 

[Battlelyon]

Three college qbs in the top 6, I wasn't aware this was 1983 over again.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

no, hes cade mcnown redux for you guys.

sorry. its what i see. i could be wrong...

You are wrong. You probably haven’t even seen him play in any nfl games.

 

[Rock Strongo]

You are wrong. You probably haven’t even seen him play in any nfl games.

i watched 3.

i also saw mcnown play.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

i watched 3.

i also saw mcnown play.

Oh, sorry to doubt you. You must be a expert. What traits does Trubisky share with McNown?

 

[Rock Strongo]

Oh, sorry to doubt you. You must be a expert. What traits does Trubisky share with McNown?

they both suck? trubiskys arm doesnt appear to be what it was thought to be IMO, like...mcnown. similar build too.

mcnowns only 15 games (picked 12th)

3-12
54.6%
16 TD
19 picks
124 YPG
67.7 rating

486 yards rushing, 3 TD's, 5.9 per


Trubisky first 12 games (picked 2nd)

4-8
59%
7 TD
7 picks
182 YPG
77.5 rating

248 yards rushing, 2 TD's, 6.0 per

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

they both suck? trubiskys arm doesnt appear to be what it was thought to be IMO, like...mcnown. similar build too.

mcnowns only 15 games (picked 12th)

3-12
54.6%
16 TD
19 picks
124 YPG
67.7 rating

486 yards rushing, 3 TD's, 5.9 per


Trubisky first 12 games (picked 2nd)

4-8
59%
7 TD
7 picks
182 YPG
77.5 rating

248 yards rushing, 2 TD's, 6.0 per

Well McNown didn’t play his 15 games all in the same year. And he also didn’t play most of his games his rookie year. With that in mind, Trubisky looks better than McNown all ready based off the stats you provided. And now he has actual talent to throw to. The stats you provided for McNown represent his entire career. Trubisky s stats represent his rookie year.

So, yes, if Trubisky doesn’t improve at all for the rest of his career, he will be marginally better than Cade McNown. I expect at least a little growth though. At the end of next year, your comparison of Trubisky and McNown will be laughable, barring any injuries.

 

[Rock Strongo]

Well McNown didn’t play his 15 games all in the same year. And he also didn’t play most of his games his rookie year. With that in mind, Trubisky looks better than McNown all ready based off the stats you provided. And now he has actual talent to throw to. The stats you provided for McNown represent his entire career. Trubisky s stats represent his rookie year.

So, yes, if Trubisky doesn’t improve at all for the rest of his career, he will be marginally better than Cade McNown. I expect at least a little growth though. At the end of next year, your comparison of Trubisky and McNown will be laughable, barring any injuries.

its...a 3 game difference.

3 games.

 

[jarntt]

Three college qbs in the top 6, I wasn't aware this was 1983 over again.

Where else are you supposed to find "QB prospects of past 3 NFL draft classes"

 

[megalodon30]

Three words: Ewe, Es, See. Darnold will be as good as Leinart, Sanchez, Barkley, et al.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

its...a 3 game difference.

3 games.

You’re not understanding what I am saying. McNown played those 15 games over his ENTIRE CAREER. Those stats include all of the growth as a quarterback that McNown had over his entire career. Those stats are a finished product. Trubisky amassed his stats in an offense designed to be conservative, on a team not expecting to play him for a year, and in his first year in the league. In order for Trubisky to be equivalent to McNown, he would have to regress, as his rookie stats are clearly better than Mcnowns career stats. He would also have to play only 3 more games his entire career. You using those stats for the sake of this argument show that you’re either trolling or a moron. They don’t even support your comparison ignoring the fact that you’re comparing a players rookie year stats with another players career stats.

 

[DirtDirtDirt]

Im on the wait and see list on Trubinsky

That was literally the worst receiving corps in the history of the NFL

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Stats are just a superficial way of comparing QB's. Was Alex Smith an MVP candidate last year? Is Case Keenum good? Trubisky didn't play himself out of the league exactly. He was fairly accurate at most every level of the field, even if his offense put the clamps down on that. Stats are great for measuring outputs where are a decent proxy for performance. But year to year there will always be noise, especially with rookie QB's.