Top 10 projected defenses - ESPN Insider

[iowajerms]

With college football media days in full swing, it's definitely not too early to look ahead to the coming season. On Monday, we took a look at the top 10 projected offenses for 2014.

Using data that we have found indicative of future performance, ESPN Stats & Information projected the defensive efficiency ranking of every Football Bowl Subdivision team for the 2014 season. Factored into the ratings are prior years' efficiency using ESPN's Football Power Index, the average of four recruiting rankings (Scouts, Rivals, Phil Steele, ESPN) during a three-year span, coaching tenure and information on returning starters (according to ESPN Insider Phil Steele).

Here's a look at the top 10 defenses based purely on statistical projections. The numbers in parentheses refer to efficiency, in terms of expected points added per game, that each team's defense is projected to contribute to its team's overall scoring margin. Since the ratings are scaled against the FBS baseline, an average defense would contribute 0 net points per game against an average offense.

For a full list of offensive, defensive and overall preseason rankings heading into the 2014 season, click here.

1. Florida State Seminoles (defensive efficiency: plus-13.6)

Returning starters: 6
2013 defensive efficiency rank: First
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 6.5

Florida State's defense was dominant this past season en route to winning the school's first national championship since 1999. The Seminoles led the nation in points allowed per drive (0.9), opponent Total QBR (16.9) and points per game allowed (12.1). The Seminoles also posted the top defensive efficiency rating in the nation.

After having an FBS-high 11 defensive players selected in the past two NFL drafts, Florida State is in prime position to reload. The Seminoles have added 14 defensive players ranked in the ESPN 300 in their past two recruiting classes, fourth most in the FBS.

Additionally, they return six defensive starters who were also highly touted recruits. DE Mario Edwards Jr. (No. 1), DE Eddie Goldman (No. 10), S Jalen Ramsey (No. 14), DE Chris Casher (No. 23) and CB Ronald Darby (No. 38) are returning defenders who were ranked in the top 50 of their respective ESPN 300 recruiting classes.

2. Florida Gators (plus-12.2)

Returning starters: 7
2013 defensive efficiency rank: Tenth
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 5.3

Even after being hit with a rash of injuries, Florida remained one of the top defenses in the nation in 2013. The Gators allowed 21 points per game despite facing six offenses that finished the season in the top 20 in ESPN's offensive efficiency ratings. As a result, the Gators ranked in the top 10 in defensive efficiency for a second-straight season.

In 2014, Florida returns first-team All-SEC cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III as well as three of its starting linebackers. DE Dante Fowler Jr. will take a leadership role as the Gators' buck linebacker, and he will look to improve Florida's pressure percentages from a season ago (ranked 13th in SEC in sacks).

Look for young players also to play a role; the Gators have the third-highest average recruiting rank in the country during the past three seasons.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide (plus-11.8)

Returning starters: 5
2013 defensive efficiency rank: Sixth
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 1.5

Alabama has been the most consistent and dominant defense in the nation since Nick Saban was hired in 2007. The Tide finished atop ESPN's defensive efficiency ratings three times during that span and only once finished outside of the top 10 (45th in 2007, Saban's first season).

The main reason Alabama is ranked behind Florida State and Florida in the 2014 projections is inexperience. The Tide lost six defensive starters to the NFL draft, including three of their four starters in the secondary.

However, with its success on the recruiting trail, Alabama should be able to reload. The Tide have signed 16 defensive players ranked in the top 100 of the ESPN 300 in the past three seasons, four more than any other school. Look for S Landon Collins and LB Trey DePriest to take a leadership role in reshaping this young defense.

4. Oklahoma Sooners (plus-11.7)

Returning starters: 9
2013 defensive efficiency rank: 26th
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 13.6

After forcing five turnovers and recording seven sacks in its win against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl, Oklahoma's defense enters the 2014 season with high hopes.

The Sooners return nine starters to a defense that led the Big 12 in total yards and passing yards allowed per game. Every member of its front seven will be back, including LB Eric Striker and DE Charles Tapper, members of the 2013 All-Big 12 team.

According to Bob Stoops, Oklahoma is "light-years ahead of a year ago," a scary thought considering that the Sooners started the season 5-0 while holding their opponents to 13 points per game.

5. TCU Horned Frogs (plus-11.2)

Returning starters: 8
2013 defensive efficiency rank: Fifth
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 40.8

TCU has finished in the top 10 of ESPN's defensive efficiency ratings in five of the past six seasons, including No. 5 in 2013. Last season, despite TCU's 4-8 record, the defense led the nation in red zone touchdown percentage and ranked in the top 5 in opponent Total QBR.

The Horned Frogs return eight starters, and that doesn't include DE Devonte Fields, the Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year in 2012, who missed most of the 2013 season with an injury.

 

[iowajerms]

6. Clemson Tigers (plus-10.4)

Returning starters: 7
2013 defensive efficiency rank: 16th
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 15.0

In an interview with ESPN ACC blogger Heather Dinich, consensus first-team All-American Vic Beasley said of Clemson's defensive line, "I feel like we can be the best in the country, returning all of our starters."

Last season, Clemson recorded its most sacks since 2004 (38) and ranked fifth among AQ defenses in pressure percentage (28 percent). Beasley led the way, with 13 sacks and 35 quarterback pressures.

With all four of Clemson's defensive line starters returning, look for the Tigers to rely more on their defense and pass rush as they try to rebuild on offense.

7. Georgia Bulldogs (plus-10.1)

Returning starters: 8
2013 defensive efficiency rank: 55th
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 9.8

This may be the first big surprise on the list after Georgia posted its worst defensive efficiency rating in the past 10 seasons. However, the Bulldogs return eight starters to a defense that is loaded with young talent. Linebackers Ramik Wilson and Jordan Jenkins should be among the SEC's best after a full year as starters.

Defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt should help speed up Georgia's rebuilding process. In one season as Florida State's defensive coordinator, he led the top defense in the nation to a national championship. Before joining FSU, Pruitt was Alabama's defensive backs coach from 2010 to 2012, and the Tide led the nation in opponent Total QBR in two of those three seasons.

8. Stanford Cardinal (plus-10.0)

Returning starters: 6
2013 defensive efficiency rank: Eighth
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 24.6

Stanford has led the nation in sacks and ranked in the top five in rushing yards allowed per game each of the past two seasons. Despite losing defensive captains Shayne Skov, Ben Gardner and Trent Murphy, the Cardinal's front seven should again be a strength.

Look for inside linebacker A.J. Tarpley to lead the Cardinal to their fifth-straight top-20 finish in ESPN's defensive efficiency rating.

9. Mississippi State Bulldogs (plus-9.8)

Returning starters: 8
2013 defensive efficiency rank: 19th
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 29.6

Mississippi State held five of its 13 opponents to season lows in points last season. Two of those teams -- Alabama and Oklahoma State -- finished the season in the AP Top 25.

The Bulldogs should be stronger in 2014, with eight starters returning on a defense that showed improvement as the season progressed. In its final four games, Mississippi State's defense added 15 points per game to the Bulldogs' net scoring margin, which ranked fifth in the FBS during that time.

10. Oregon Ducks (plus-9.8)

Returning starters: 6
2013 defensive efficiency rank: 17th
Three-year recruiting class average rank: 20.5

Oregon's high-flying offense receives most of the accolades in Eugene, overshadowing a defense that has been among the most consistent in the nation.

In each of the past five seasons, Oregon has finished in the top 20 of ESPN's defensive efficiency ratings. The only other team that can make that claim is Alabama.

Despite longtime defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti's retirement, Oregon's defense should remain strong in 2014 under protege Don Pellum. As in seasons past, Oregon will look to force turnovers (second-most turnovers forced in the past two seasons) and speed up the tempo of opposing offenses.

Notes on Michigan State/Virginia Tech

Many avid college football fans will notice two glaring absences in the list above: Michigan State and Virginia Tech. It's important to note that these are mathematically based projections, so while both of these teams pass the eye test from last season, there are a few key factors that kept them out of the top 10.

First, Michigan State and Virginia Tech are returning four and five defensive starters, respectively, and the number of returning starters has proved to be a major factor in predicting future success. If either team had a top recruiting ranking, it could compensate for the defensive losses. However, both teams rank outside the top 25 in average recruiting ranking over the past three years.

Florida State Seminoles headline top 10 defenses for 2014 season - College Football - ESPN

 

[occupant]

Well...thank goodness defense wins championships.

 

[WhiteMamba]

In each of the past five seasons, Oregon has finished in the top 20 of ESPN's defensive efficiency ratings. The only other team that can make that claim is Alabama.

 

[hokiehi21]

Hokies should be there.

 

[iowajerms]

Hokies should be there.

They were honorable mention with Michigan State

 

[Codaxx]

Trying to understand how Georgia got ranked. Return 8 from a defense that was 55th in efficiency and that gets you ranked 7th. MSU has 8 returning starters and was 19th, but that gets you 9th. That has to be a pretty large recruiting weighting to get that result

 

[rolltide14_0]

Trying to understand how Georgia got ranked. Return 8 from a defense that was 55th in efficiency and that gets you ranked 7th. MSU has 8 returning starters and was 19th, but that gets you 9th. That has to be a pretty large recruiting weighting to get that result

Agreed. I hate it when they act like just because you return 10 starters from a shitty defense that it will all of a sudden be good.

 

[MSU]

I'd be really surprised if we aren't in the top 10 by the end of the year. We've reloaded on defense for the past 5 years so why would this year be any different? You would think that people would have learned by now that recruiting stars really don't matter.

 

[Cobrabit]

Like mentioned in the article, the authors pretty much know that MSU and VT will likely end up in the top 10, if not competing for the top spot at year's end. They're sitting at 20 and 13 respectively in this statistical poll that weighs recruiting ratings in which neither team historically is ever ranked high. Both have excellent coaching staffs that disregard the 'stars' and are able to pick their guys that fit the system and reload every year, rarely missing a beat.

We also know that a good offense is just that much of a factor to a good defense, which in VT's case is actually an Achilles' heal for the better part of the last 10-15 years.



Is it sad that the most exciting part of watching your team is the defense? Sometimes I think they're the only ones capable of scoring

 

[romeo212000]

I'd be really surprised if we aren't in the top 10 by the end of the year. We've reloaded on defense for the past 5 years so why would this year be any different? You would think that people would have learned by now that recruiting stars really don't matter.

Michigan state always is solid on defense.

 

[Edisto_Tiger]

Like mentioned in the article, the authors pretty much know that MSU and VT will likely end up in the top 10, if not competing for the top spot at year's end. They're sitting at 20 and 13 respectively in this statistical poll that weighs recruiting ratings in which neither team historically is ever ranked high. Both have excellent coaching staffs that disregard the 'stars' and are able to pick their guys that fit the system and reload every year, rarely missing a beat.

We also know that a good offense is just that much of a factor to a good defense, which in VT's case is actually an Achilles' heal for the better part of the last 10-15 years.



Is it sad that the most exciting part of watching your team is the defense? Sometimes I think they're the only ones capable of scoring

No!! I love watching a good D swarm to the ball, or DE's that take over a game, or DT's that explode the center of the line, or LB's blowing up ball carriers, or corners that have better footwork than Fred Astaire and hit like a sledgehammer, or just good ole ball hawkin safeties. I love that part of the game.

 

[obxyankeefan]

UVA should be there.

 

[FSUmanager]

No!! I love watching a good D swarm to the ball, or DE's that take over a game, or DT's that explode the center of the line, or LB's blowing up ball carriers, or corners that have better footwork than Fred Astaire and hit like a sledgehammer, or just good ole ball hawkin safeties. I love that part of the game.

You must like watching teams other than Clemson if you like watching those things.

 

[hokiehi21]

No!! I love watching a good D swarm to the ball, or DE's that take over a game, or DT's that explode the center of the line, or LB's blowing up ball carriers, or corners that have better footwork than Fred Astaire and hit like a sledgehammer, or just good ole ball hawkin safeties. I love that part of the game.

 

[Edisto_Tiger]

You must like watching teams other than Clemson if you like watching those things.

I wish I could argue, but that's been true as of the last 15 years or so. When I was growing up, we had the D. It's when i developed a love for it. Our offense was mediocre but our Defense always did enough to keep us in the game and more times than not, win the game.

 

[FSUmanager]

I wish I could argue, but that's been true as of the last 15 years or so. When I was growing up, we had the D. It's when i developed a love for it. Our offense was mediocre but our Defense always did enough to keep us in the game and more times than not, win the game.

Listened to Vic Beasely and Dabo Doo in an interview today by Mark Packer. Beasely thinks the DL will be the best in the country. He also said the way to beat FSU was to not turn the ball over. Guess he forgot how many TDs were scored in DV without a TO.

All joking aside it was a good interview. He seems to believe in Cole too.

 

[Edisto_Tiger]

Listened to Vic Beasely and Dabo Doo in an interview today by Mark Packer. Beasely thinks the DL will be the best in the country. He also said the way to beat FSU was to not turn the ball over. Guess he forgot how many TDs were scored in DV without a TO.

All joking aside it was a good interview. He seems to believe in Cole too.

Cole Stoudt is solid. I have no doubts that he could be better than Tajh. If he keeps his cool under pressure instead of folding like cheap lawn furniture, he'll have the Clemson faithfull wondering why he didn't get the starts over Tajh. We'll see though. Our D should be much improved up front, about the same at LB, and it couldn't be any worse than last year with the secondary.

 

[WB1214]

Top 10 Projected Defense-ESPN

Somehow glanced over it, my bad Mamba.


Very shocked UGA was on the list

 

[WhiteMamba]