The SEC and the Next Best 3 Week 4

[Chewbaccer]

I'm back again for another go at it. Last week was a bit of a crazy week. Auburn was blown out by LSU, and given how Auburn had performed in their first two games, I don't think many were surprised, but what I was surprised by is just how Leonard Fournette made Auburn's defense look like a middle school unit. I don't think there's a question of who's leading the Heisman race after week 3. Also somewhat surprising, Auburn has announced that redshirt freshman, Sean White will replace Jeremy Johnson at quarterback this week. Wasn't Jeremy Johnson supposed to be the best quarterback in the SEC? That's what I was told anyways.

And this could be the worst team that Steve Spurrier has ever coached at any school. Saturday was just the seventh time that Georgia had ever beaten a Spurrier coached team, and by far by the widest margin ever. They don't have a run game, they don't have a passing game, they can't defend the pass and they can't defend the run. As a Georgia fan, I'd like to think that Grayson Lambert is just that good and set the NCAA record for completion percentage in a game, but honestly the receiver was wide open almost every single time. At this point, I'm wondering if South Carolina can beat Vanderbilt this season. At least Vandy does play decent defense. Had Georgia not taken their foot off the gas, this could have easily been a 66-13 game.

I'd have to say the game of the week lived up to the hype. Alabama fought hard to get back in the game, but they just made too many critical mistakes early on to make up. I'm sure it has happened before, but I don't remember a team ever turning the ball over 5 times, and not forcing any turnovers winning. The fact that this game ended in a one score game given the circumstances is amazing in itself. You do have to give credit to Ole Miss though. They capitalized on the opportunities they were given, Chad Kelly looked impressive at quarterback, and while Bama did come on late, they played solid defense for most of the game. I think they will need a running game at some point if they want to win the West, but beating Bama in Tuscaloosa is impressive regardless. Bama is going to have to find a solution at quarterback. Jake Coker has struggled the last two games, and Cooper Bateman wasn't very impressive either, and when you don't have an Amari Cooper to bail you out, you will need a quarterback that can hit the target. They still have Henry and Drake running the ball, and they still have an imposing front 7 on defense and are still a threat to win the West, but they need to clean up their act and get some consistent quarterback play.

And just a few smaller notes from last week, Arkansas backed up their loss to Toledo with a rather convincing loss to Texas Tech. So much for preseason hype. Kentucky held Florida to just 14 points, yet they still managed to lose to the Gators for the 29th year in a row. And Missouri continues to struggle mightily on offense. Holding any team to 6 points is a good show for the defense, but to only put up 9, 2 coming from by way of safety against Connecticut doesn't look good for Mizzou.

On to this week's games.


The Cupcakes

Southern @ Georgia- Georgia is coming off of their most decisive victory over South Carolina in my lifetime. As a Georgia fan, I don't know if I've ever been more excited about beating a bad to mediocre team badly. It felt good to give Spurrier the butt whoopin that he's given us so many times. As for the game, Southern might actually play a bit better defense than South Carolina, so I doubt Lambert will have another record breaking day, but he should have another good half before he is pulled and Chubb should continue his streak of 100 yard rushing games by halftime when he is pulled. Never look ahead, but Bama is coming to town next week, so don't get anyone hurt. Final Score: Georgia 56-7

Central Florida @ South Carolina- I know that things look bad in Columbia, and the Gamecocks are contenders for the cellar at this point, but UCF is coming off of a loss to Fordham, and is sitting at 0-3. For a team that has consistently been one of the better mid major programs, it seems they have hit rock bottom even harder than South Carolina has. If South Carolina loses this game, Spurrier should just go ahead and retire before he has a heart attack. The game probably won't be worth watching, but I have to think the Gamecocks come out on top of this one. Final Score: South Carolina 28-17

Louisiana Monroe @ Alabama- I wouldn't want to be the team facing Alabama this week. I'm sure they'll be playing angry, and you won't find too many better FBS opponents better for taking out your frustration. ULM actually beat Alabama the last time they traveled to Tuscaloosa, but this time, Alabama will come out firing and very motivated. After last week's loss to Ole Miss, I doubt they will be looking ahead to Georgia next week. Final Score: Alabama 52-0


For the Premise of the Blog, I Won't Call Conference Games Cupcakes


Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss- There's always the worry of a hangover after a big road win, but for this one, Vanderbilt wouldn't have enough on offense to capitalize if Ole Miss doesn't come out firing. Vandy has shown to have a halfway decent decent, and McCrary has shown he has potential to be a solid QB, but he still has a long ways to go. I doubt The Rebels will hang 70 on Vandy, but I do think they will have a big game. Chad Kelly has looked to be the answer at quarterback and he has a talented group of receivers. I would like to see them get the run game going a bit in this one, but if not, they probably won't need it at the Grove against arguably the worst team in the SEC. Like most teams playing Vandy, Ole Miss will have a good defensive showing and win fairly easily. Final Score: Ole Miss 43-13

Texas A&M @ Arkansas- Plain and simple, Arkansas shit the bed against Toledo, and they failed miserably trying to bounce back against Texas Tech last week. I haven't been impressed with their defense, they're running game that was so good last season just hasn't been here this season, and I don't think they win many games throwing the ball. A&M has looked strong so far this season. Kyle Allen has looked solid at quarterback, and their defense appears to be much improved over last season. Conference road games are never anything to take lightly, but I just don't see the Razorbacks being much of a threat to the Aggies, even at home. Final Score: Texas A&M 45-21


For the Premise of the Blog, I Won't Call non Conference Power 5 Opponents Cupcakes


LSU @ Syracuse- Syracuse, New York is a long ways from Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and Syracuse is sitting at 3-0 against weak competition, but LSU just looks like they're going to be one of the best teams in the country this season. They're playing great on defense, Fournette has been the best running back in the country so far this season, and while Brandon Harris might not be airing it out, he is not hurting the team, and making plays when he has to. Honestly, the last time I watched a Syracuse game, they were still in the Big East, so I don't know too much about them other than they lost their quarterback against Rhode Island. But I think LSU makes the long road trip well worth it with another convincing win. Final Score: LSU 38-7


This Could be an Interesting Matchup, Boring, but Interesting


Missouri @ Kentucky- Kentucky is an improving team, and at times they look great, but at other times they leave a lot to be desired. They played too conservatively against South Carolina in the second half, and let South Carolina make a game of it. Then last week against Florida, they had a golden opportunity at home to end a 28 game losing streak to the Gators. They held them to just 14 points, but they could only manage 9 and the streak is extended for yet another season. For Mizzou, a good defense is great and all, and will win you some games, but they haven't just been mediocre on offense, they've been down right terrible. Matty Mauk hasn't looked good this season, they haven't been able to establish a run game. But to me, this is a game that will play into Missouri's hands. Kentucky has shown flashes on offense, Patrick Towles and Stanley Williams have looked great at times, but it has been shown that a good defense can shut them down, and while it certainly doesn't look like it will take many points to win this game, I do trust Missouri's defense more than I trust Kentucky's. This game just has ugly written all over it. Final Score: Missouri 17-10

 

[Chewbaccer]

This is Make it or Break it for Both Teams


Mississippi State @ Auburn- We've all seen how bad Auburn has looked in each of their first 3 games. They barely beat a Louisville team that now sits 0-3. They needed overtime to beat FCS Jacksonville State, and they were just manhandled by LSU is every aspect of the game. At no point was Auburn in the game with LSU. Auburn's defense has been bad, their quarterback play has been atrocious, and now redshirt freshman, Sean White will be making his first ever college start replacing the preseason SEC QB king, Jeremy Johnson. I try to find something positive to say about all of the teams on this thread, but with Auburn along with Arkansas and South Carolina, I'm just having a tough time finding anything positive to say about them. As it stands for Auburn now, though it was a bad loss, it only counted as 1 loss. As bad as they have looked, the season isn't over yet, but they had better start turning things around this week if they're going to finish higher than 6th in the SEC West. That's what they have looked like. The 6th ranked team coming into the season now looks like the 6th best team in their own division, and making the quarterback change now says that Malzahn, the quarterback whisperer doesn't have any confidence in Jeremy Johnson either.

For Mississippi State, they have looked good against the two cupcake teams they've played, and while a loss is a loss, losing by 2 to LSU doesn't look so bad at the moment, and neither does holding LSU to 21 points and shutting them out in the second half. I haven't watched the cupcake games, but against LSU, it didn't look like they were running much option, they were just letting Dak Prescott throw the ball. Really they haven't been running the ball much at all, which is a bit of a concern to me, but Dak Prescott is still one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC. For a team that won 10 games last season and returning a player that made the Heisman Finalist list, Mississippi State sure hasn't gotten much love this season. While they haven't beaten anyone of note yet either, they did come within a long field goal of beating LSU, and they look like they have a solid defense, and they still have Dak Prescott at quarterback.

As for the game, Mississippi State has looked like the better team to me. They haven't needed overtime to beat a team that should have been a tune up game. And in common opponents, Auburn was blown out by LSU while Mississippi State was in the game until the clock turned 0:00. Mississippi State has a senior quarterback who was a Heisman Finalist last season. Auburn's two options at quarterback are a red shirt freshman making his first ever start and a guy that has been benched for poor play in each of the first 3 games this season. The winner of this game stays alive in the SEC West. The loser will find themselves 0-2 in conference play and likely out of the discussion. To me Mississippi State is better at QB and defense, and while it is a road game for them in a very hostile environment, I think the better team comes out on top. Final Score: Mississippi State 38-24


Game of the Week


Tennessee @ Florida- Florida is coming off of a road win against Kentucky to extend their winning streak over the Wildcats to 29 games. Florida will be looking to extend another streak this Saturday in what was once one of the best rivalry games in the conference. If the Gators win, it will be 11 in a row over the Volunteers. During that streak we've seen some much better Florida teams and a lot worse Tennessee teams, so this one will come down to the wire. Florida has looked strong on defense, as is the norm, but they still leave a lot to be desired on offense. Will Grier hasn't been terrible, but I don't see him as the game changer that Florida hasn't had since Tim Tebow. They're average at best in the run game, and the passing game isn't much better. But like I said, I think their defense will be good enough to keep them in a lot of games this season, and the game is in the Swamp, and the pressure will be on Tennessee to end their losing streak against one of their biggest rivals.

For Tennessee this is probably the best chance they've had at beating Florida in quite some time. They have the talent on both sides of the ball, execution is key though. They had Oklahoma on the ropes two weeks ago, but they got way too conservative way too early and it cost them. Their defense played great the entire game, but in the second half they tired out from having to be on the field virtually the entire half because their offense went to sleep, and when a game you've controlled the entire way goes into overtime, it's usually too late to wake up by then. Obviously, that can't happen this week. If Tennessee wants to win, they have 3 talented wide receivers, a decent quarterback and two good running backs. Use them all the entire game. A balanced attack is tough for every good defenses like Florida's to defend. Their defense has shown to be capable if rested as well. They're the more talented team this season. I bought into the preseason hype. The only question is, can they execute.

For the game, I think Tennessee is the more talented team. Florida's biggest strength is clearly their defense, but Tennessee's defense is no slouch either. And I give Tennessee big advantages in quarterback, wide receivers and running backs. But this game is in the Swamp. A 10 game losing streak to one of your biggest rivals has to be on the minds of the Tennessee players, and we have yet to see Tennessee play a full game against a decent opponent. If Tennessee plays to their ability, I think their talent will win out. I see this game getting chippy, and played pretty tight the entire way. I don't look for a high scoring game, but I'm betting we will see some big hits, and I think a big defensive play will be the difference maker in this one. In the end, while I do think Tennessee is the better team, I just feel a grind it out, dirty game will favor the Gators at home. I think Worley is going to make a costly mistake in the 4th quarter and swing the momentum to the Gators, where they will extend their winning streak to 11 over the Volunteers. I can't emphasize enough, that Tennessee is the more talented team, but for me, it's hard to pick them to beat Florida until, well, they beat Florida. Final Score: Florida- 13-10


The Next Best 3

UCLA @ Arizona- With USC going down, and Arizona State not looking so hot to start the season, the winner of this game will be the favorite to win the Pac 12 South. Anu Solomon for Arizona is one of the better QBs in the country, and Zona's run game currently ranks 7th in the country, though against fairly weak competition. UCLA has looked impressive to start the season. Grinding out a win over a strong looking BYU team gave me a good bit of confidence in UCLA this week. I see UCLA as having the better defense, and Josh Rosen has been solid at quarterback. I think UCLA is the better team, and that's why I'm picking them to win. Final Score: UCLA- 32-24

Utah @ Oregon- Pretty solid week of Pac 12 games. Oregon is coming off of an expected trouncing of Georgia State, and even in a loss to Michigan State, I think they were impressive. They have given up some points this season, and Vernon Adams isn't Marcus Mariotta, they still have a high flying offense with a lot of speed and playmakers, and Autzen is one of the toughest road games in the country. Utah has also looked good this season, their defense has looked really good. But they haven't exactly dazzled on offense. While I think they will be a solid team throughout the season, I don't think they're gonna be able to outscore Oregon in Eugene. Final Score: Oregon- 42-28

BYU @ Michigan- BYU has looked solid all season. They went on the road and beat Nebraska, all be it by a miraculous Hail Mary, they handled Boise State fairly easily, and went on the road to UCLA and lost by just a single point. At this point, they are looking like the favorite non power 5 team to play on New Years. They've shown they aren't intimidated by big name opponents, and they're not afraid to go on the road to face them. For Michigan, this would be a big win for Harbaugh in front of the home crowd, but in the end, BYU is the more battle tested team, and they've shown big road road games don't intimidate them. BYU wins a close one. Final Score: BYU- 27-24

 

[WhiteMamba]

Always good stuff.

 

[WhiteMamba]

Bad week of games in SEC land. Yikes.

 

[rmilia1]

Good read man. Enjoyed it thoroughly. Minor correction is that UCF lost to Furman not Fordham. Not that that even remotely matters but if you got time to fix it then get crazy

 

[Chewbaccer]

Bad week of games in SEC land. Yikes.

There have definitely been better weeks. Not nearly as bad as cupcake week late in the season though. And we'll see a bit of thinning of the herd this week at least.

 

[Chewbaccer]

Good read man. Enjoyed it thoroughly. Minor correction is that UCF lost to Furman not Fordham. Not that that even remotely matters but if you got time to fix it then get crazy

The time for edits has expired. Shame. Seems like I make one inexplicable mistake a week. At least it's minor this time, unlike last week where I called it a home game for Georgia Tech.

 

[rmilia1]

The time for edits has expired. Shame. Seems like I make one inexplicable mistake a week. At least it's minor this time, unlike last week where I called it a home game for Georgia Tech.

Yeah this one is pretty irrelevant. UCF shouldnt be losing to Furman OR Fordham, maybe not even if they played them at the same time... LOL

 

[Chewbaccer]

And in the Ole Miss-Vanderbilt part, decent decent should be decent defense.

 

[Chewbaccer]

Shameless bump

 

[Norka!]

Thanks Chewy, real nice work! We'll catch up one day!

 

[VFL1995]

Always a good read, but I think you meant Dobbs, not Worley haha

 

[CCF151]

You might want to revise the UCLA@Arizona game. UCLA lost Miles Jack for the season and he's a HUGE part of their defense. Otherwise a pretty good take on these matches

 

[Chewbaccer]

Always a good read, but I think you meant Dobbs, not Worley haha

I definitely did.

I really need to start proof reading before submitting.

 

[Norka!]

There have definitely been better weeks. Not nearly as bad as cupcake week late in the season though. And we'll see a bit of thinning of the herd this week at least.

Hey Chewy, the SEC has been taking some hits but UGA is looking like the flagship team, that was quite a big and much easier than expected win over South Carolina, it's the week ahead with Bama coming to Athens that I got UGA penciled in for the win...

 

[Chewbaccer]

Hey Chewy, the SEC has been taking some hits but UGA is looking like the flagship team, that was quite a big and much easier than expected win over South Carolina, it's the week ahead with Bama coming to Athens that I got UGA penciled in for the win...

I'm a Braves and Georgia fan, so it's a little hard for me to be optimistic.

I'm almost convinced that South Carolina is worse than Vandy. Vandy does at least play decent defense. I won't lie, it felt good blowing out Spurrier. We've beat him a few times along the way, but he's ruined our season so many times. I loved seeing the dejected look on his face.