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Omar 382
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Noah Syndergaard is a great pitcher, and his 100 MPH fastballs can wow people. There's no doubt about that. But is he the best pitcher in the NL East? Jose Fernandez might have something to say about that; Max Scherzer might too. But I can make a case that neither will have the best careers moving forward. I could make a case that neither will have the best 2016 season. I think that might be Aaron Nola.
Nola only averages 91.3 MPH on his fastball. Thor and Fernandez average 97 and 95 MPH, respectively. Higher velocity is correlated with more swings and misses. But it might also be correlated with arm injuries. In 2002, fastballs averaged 89.6 MPH. This year, they average 92.4 MPH. Here's a chart of Tommy John surgeries by year:
Now, of course, there's the correlation does not prove causation caveat. There could be some other external factor that causes both. IP by starters are down substantially:
So what else could cause it? Cut-back on PED use? Maybe. But I do think that increased velocity does cause arm injuries, even if the direct cause hasn't been clearly shown.
Fernandez has already had TJ. Thor has forearm tightness right now, and there are murmurings of Tommy John surgery. But is injury risk enough to put Nola ahead?
Nola has pitched more innings than both this year, and has a very similar ERA/FIP/xFIP. Through 12 starts, Nola’s averaged 6.5 innings per start with a 2.65 ERA and a 2.73 FIP. He’s been a top-30 starter by RA9-WAR and a top-10 starter by FIP-WAR. He’s been a top-15 starter in strikeout, walk, and ground-ball rate — arguably the three most important traits for any pitcher to possess. He is dominant pitcher, even if he doesn't throw hard. The best part of his game is his ability to get batter to take pitches in the strike zone, and swing at ones not. Here's my last graph: Aaron Nola » Graphs » WAR » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball
Nola is a great pitcher, and I think he will be a great one for many years to come.
Nola only averages 91.3 MPH on his fastball. Thor and Fernandez average 97 and 95 MPH, respectively. Higher velocity is correlated with more swings and misses. But it might also be correlated with arm injuries. In 2002, fastballs averaged 89.6 MPH. This year, they average 92.4 MPH. Here's a chart of Tommy John surgeries by year:
Now, of course, there's the correlation does not prove causation caveat. There could be some other external factor that causes both. IP by starters are down substantially:
So what else could cause it? Cut-back on PED use? Maybe. But I do think that increased velocity does cause arm injuries, even if the direct cause hasn't been clearly shown.
Fernandez has already had TJ. Thor has forearm tightness right now, and there are murmurings of Tommy John surgery. But is injury risk enough to put Nola ahead?
Nola has pitched more innings than both this year, and has a very similar ERA/FIP/xFIP. Through 12 starts, Nola’s averaged 6.5 innings per start with a 2.65 ERA and a 2.73 FIP. He’s been a top-30 starter by RA9-WAR and a top-10 starter by FIP-WAR. He’s been a top-15 starter in strikeout, walk, and ground-ball rate — arguably the three most important traits for any pitcher to possess. He is dominant pitcher, even if he doesn't throw hard. The best part of his game is his ability to get batter to take pitches in the strike zone, and swing at ones not. Here's my last graph: Aaron Nola » Graphs » WAR » Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball
Nola is a great pitcher, and I think he will be a great one for many years to come.
