Tank for Draft Picks (Namely QB)

[JoeyTourettes]

We are on the eve of the next NFL Season. For many fans in Chicago, sports writers and sports talk callers and hosts are predicting a dooms day season. Which may be coming. We never truly know at this point in the year.
The latest trend on the air waves is to hope for the worst. The theory goes that with a new coaching staff in Fox and Friends (ugh did I really just type that?), better attitude and overall scheme- they Bears are still going to be bad...but could possibly still win 6 or 7 games...and that's bad... because it most likely puts them out of the top 7 or so picks for next spring.
"Tank for the Draft" people are now actively asking them to be REALLY bad. Don't win more then 2 games and jump up the draft board for that elusive top 3 pick. Why might you ask? FOR THAT FRANCHISE QB!! For that guy who can FINALLY take over for the much talked about- much HATED..."Coach Killer" that is Jay Cutler. <oh the horror!!

But wait... Could it be that picking a top 3 QB is an awful idea? Hell a first round QB isn't a guarantee of anything. Let's take a look shall we...
Let's go back 10 drafts: Who are these Franchise saving QB's that were drafted in the first round? How many of them actually worked out? How many still have question marks? How many are even still active?
2006:
Vince Young- FPC OUT OF LEAGUE
Matt Lienart- FPC OUT OF LEAGUE
Jay Cutler (<oh the Horror!!) Legit Starter
2007:
JaMarcus Russell (ha)- FPC (Former #1 pick) OUT OF LEAGUE
Brady Quinn- FPC OUT OF LEAGUE
2008:
Matt Ryan- Legit Starter.
Joe Flacco- Legit Starter. Flacco had one really good playoff run. He's decent.
2009:
Mathew Stafford-(#1 pick) Legit Starter who throws too many picks.
Mark Sanchez- Serviceable when not butt fumbling. NOT a starter 3rd team... what team now?
Josh Freeman- FPC OUT OF LEAGUE
2010:
Sam Bradford- (#1 pick) We think he's a legit starter- but injuries leave him Questionable
Tim Tebow- ha FPC OUT OF LEAGUE
2011:
Cam Newton-(#1 pick) Legit Starter
Jake Locker- OUT OF THE LEAGUE
Blaine Gabbert- FPC
Christian Ponder- FPC
2012:
Andrew Luck-(#1 pick) Franchise QB
Robert Griffin III- We think he may be a serviceable starter, but he's hurt a lot too and now lost job.
Ryan Tannehill- Legit Starter
Brandon Weeden- FPC
2013:
EJ Manuel- FPC now 3rd string
2014:
Blake Bortles- Questions still unanswered.
Johnny Manziel- LOTS of questions- beat out by a guy with a 1-10 record last year.
Teddy Bridgewater- Legit Starter after one season.
2015:
Jameis Winston-(#1 pick) Rookie Questions
Marcus Mariota- Rookie Questions

26 Quarterbacks taken in the past 10 drafts in the first round. How many are "Franchise QB's" vs legit starters vs Serviceable spot starter vs Still Question Mark OR Flaming Pile of Crap or "FPC"?

For these percentages I'm going with the 24- as Jameis and Marcus have yet to play a game...
7 of them are OUT OF THE LEAGUE. 29% (Young, Lienert, Russell, Quinn, Freeman, Tebow, Locker)
4 are Questionable 17% (Manziel, Bortels, Griffin, Bradford)
5 are Flaming Piles of Crap or Non-starters 20% (Weeden, Manuel, Gabbert, Ponder, Sanchez)
7 are Legit starters. 29% (Bridgewater, Newton, Tannehill, Stafford, Ryan, Flacco, Cutler)
1 is a Bonafide "Franchise QB" 4% (Andrew Luck)

So based on the past 10 DRAFTS. If you are looking to get a QB for your team in the first round you only have a 33% chance he's going to be a long term legit starter. (and you needed a #1 pick on three of them)
It's more likely (67% likely) that your first round pick QB will have question marks, be flaming piles of crap (that you'll replace again anyway) or be out of the league in a few years.

Regardless if your looking at this as a Jay Cutler hating Bears fans or whatever team you cheer for and your Quarterbacking needs... Drafting a first round QB is dangerous. "Tank for the Draft" Nah... I'd rather see them play hard, get some wins to boost team moral and keep the machine in a positive direction. (losing 12+ games isn't good for anybody) Winning 7 or 8 and being in contention for most games is a much better indicator of future success. IMO
Spend that top 10-14 pick on a Offensive or Defensive lineman... Get better. And go find a QB in later rounds.
NOTE: I have not looked closely at next years potential 1st round QB's... but from what I've seen- it's more of the same. There just isn't anymore Peyton Manning's or Andrew Luck's out there.

 

[Uhsplit]

Good read.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

don't think this is all that surprising. Which is the reason multiple QBs are taken ever year in the 1st round. If more legit QBs were landed, there would be less (need to) drafting of Qbs in the 1st round. QB position is so important teams will always take the risk in the 1st round to try to find the once in a generation QB.
So your percentages are pretty right on. a 1/3 of the league top 11 or 12 QBs are the teams not taking a risk on the QB position (usually) the other 2/3rds will.

 

[HammerDown]

Spend that top 10-14 pick on a Offensive or Defensive lineman... Get better. And go find a QB in later rounds.

End. Of. Thread.

Break this rule once in a generation when Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck comes around. I would have broken it for Blake Bortles too.

 

[Jakology]

If I was a GM, and I heard someone talk about tanking, they'd be fired. If I heard rumors about it, I'd find the source and give them a very fiery warning. I do not tolerate tanking under any circumstance. You play to win the game. If you're going into the season feeling like you're going to have a bad year, why are you coaching? I don't care how "bad" the team looks on paper. You build confidence and believe in yourselves.

 

[JMR]

So based on the past 10 DRAFTS. If you are looking to get a QB for your team in the first round you only have a 33% chance he's going to be a long term legit starter.

Yeah a few years ago I looked at all QBs picked in round one since 1990 and more or less came to eh

We are on the eve of the next NFL Season. For many fans in Chicago, sports writers and sports talk callers and hosts are predicting a dooms day season. Which may be coming. We never truly know at this point in the year.
The latest trend on the air waves is to hope for the worst. The theory goes that with a new coaching staff in Fox and Friends (ugh did I really just type that?), better attitude and overall scheme- they Bears are still going to be bad...but could possibly still win 6 or 7 games...and that's bad... because it most likely puts them out of the top 7 or so picks for next spring.
"Tank for the Draft" people are now actively asking them to be REALLY bad. Don't win more then 2 games and jump up the draft board for that elusive top 3 pick. Why might you ask? FOR THAT FRANCHISE QB!! For that guy who can FINALLY take over for the much talked about- much HATED..."Coach Killer" that is Jay Cutler. <oh the horror!!

But wait... Could it be that picking a top 3 QB is an awful idea? Hell a first round QB isn't a guarantee of anything. Let's take a look shall we...
Let's go back 10 drafts: Who are these Franchise saving QB's that were drafted in the first round? How many of them actually worked out? How many still have question marks? How many are even still active?
2006:
Vince Young- FPC OUT OF LEAGUE
Matt Lienart- FPC OUT OF LEAGUE
Jay Cutler (<oh the Horror!!) Legit Starter
2007:
JaMarcus Russell (ha)- FPC (Former #1 pick) OUT OF LEAGUE
Brady Quinn- FPC OUT OF LEAGUE
2008:
Matt Ryan- Legit Starter.
Joe Flacco- Legit Starter. Flacco had one really good playoff run. He's decent.
2009:
Mathew Stafford-(#1 pick) Legit Starter who throws too many picks.
Mark Sanchez- Serviceable when not butt fumbling. NOT a starter 3rd team... what team now?
Josh Freeman- FPC OUT OF LEAGUE
2010:
Sam Bradford- (#1 pick) We think he's a legit starter- but injuries leave him Questionable
Tim Tebow- ha FPC OUT OF LEAGUE
2011:
Cam Newton-(#1 pick) Legit Starter
Jake Locker- OUT OF THE LEAGUE
Blaine Gabbert- FPC
Christian Ponder- FPC
2012:
Andrew Luck-(#1 pick) Franchise QB
Robert Griffin III- We think he may be a serviceable starter, but he's hurt a lot too and now lost job.
Ryan Tannehill- Legit Starter
Brandon Weeden- FPC
2013:
EJ Manuel- FPC now 3rd string
2014:
Blake Bortles- Questions still unanswered.
Johnny Manziel- LOTS of questions- beat out by a guy with a 1-10 record last year.
Teddy Bridgewater- Legit Starter after one season.
2015:
Jameis Winston-(#1 pick) Rookie Questions
Marcus Mariota- Rookie Questions

26 Quarterbacks taken in the past 10 drafts in the first round. How many are "Franchise QB's" vs legit starters vs Serviceable spot starter vs Still Question Mark OR Flaming Pile of Crap or "FPC"?

For these percentages I'm going with the 24- as Jameis and Marcus have yet to play a game...
7 of them are OUT OF THE LEAGUE. 29% (Young, Lienert, Russell, Quinn, Freeman, Tebow, Locker)
4 are Questionable 17% (Manziel, Bortels, Griffin, Bradford)
5 are Flaming Piles of Crap or Non-starters 20% (Weeden, Manuel, Gabbert, Ponder, Sanchez)
7 are Legit starters. 29% (Bridgewater, Newton, Tannehill, Stafford, Ryan, Flacco, Cutler)
1 is a Bonafide "Franchise QB" 4% (Andrew Luck)

So based on the past 10 DRAFTS. If you are looking to get a QB for your team in the first round you only have a 33% chance he's going to be a long term legit starter. (and you needed a #1 pick on three of them)
It's more likely (67% likely) that your first round pick QB will have question marks, be flaming piles of crap (that you'll replace again anyway) or be out of the league in a few years.

Regardless if your looking at this as a Jay Cutler hating Bears fans or whatever team you cheer for and your Quarterbacking needs... Drafting a first round QB is dangerous. "Tank for the Draft" Nah... I'd rather see them play hard, get some wins to boost team moral and keep the machine in a positive direction. (losing 12+ games isn't good for anybody) Winning 7 or 8 and being in contention for most games is a much better indicator of future success. IMO
Spend that top 10-14 pick on a Offensive or Defensive lineman... Get better. And go find a QB in later rounds.
NOTE: I have not looked closely at next years potential 1st round QB's... but from what I've seen- it's more of the same. There just isn't anymore Peyton Manning's or Andrew Luck's out there.

A few years ago I looked at round 1 QBs going back to 1990 and came to more or less the same conclusions as you. It's a huge gamble, and the track record of failure makes that fairly self-evident. The other thing that jumps out is that of those who ended up being good -- looking more at recent years -- played as rookies and quickly took their lumps and got better. The conventional wisdom of sitting for a few years seems more of a wive's tale than reality.