ST thread

[JohnU]

The only aggressive baserunning I saw this spring was from Irving Falu, who really IS a good baserunner. I guess that means he ought to stay in the minors so he can meld into age 30 gracefully.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Irving Falu had a good spring, but I think he's older than you think he is John. He'll be 32 in a couple months. He broke in with KC and his style of play is reflective of what the Royals did so successfully last season.

The Reds seem more impressed with Ivan DeJesus who is 4 years younger. Both of them are in the same situation as Negron prior to making a favorable impression late last season that carried over to ST. If Negron continues to hit, neither DeJesus or Falu may get a opportunity in Cincinnati unless Cozart or Phillips' positions become available through poor performance or injury.

 

[Redsfan1507]

There are lots of former Reds filling utility roles in MLB. Adam Rosales is still drawing a check. If Cozart doesn't hit more, there will always be competition for his job. The last Reds SS that hit anything to spreak of was Felipe Lopez for a single year-a long time ago. Cozart is a great defender though. I still think lack of offense at SS is because we have too many OF hitting like SS. Hopefully, Byrd can pick up Ludwick's slack, and Hamilton and Bruce can improve. I have to believe if Votto and Phillips play full seasons, we will get more at 1b/2b than last year, too.

I don't think many NL offenses are that great this year- what I fear most is the Reds diminished starting rotation and a bullpen that doesn't appear to have gotten better.

 

[JohnU]

I fully expect Negron to get a lot of at-bats this year, and I think he's probably more likely to move 2B than SS. He's no long-term answer. An alternative to some of this is to shove Negron to left field. He can also play 3B. All the same, he's a journeyman, not a prospect. Knowing how this dugout staff works, compared to the one Dusty had, it's not conducive to change. Dusty was just luckier in not having as many injuries.


I guess I had bad information on Falu.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Reports are the Reds aren't close on signing Cueto- they haven't even made a "legitimate" offer...

No big suprise there, considering Max Scherzer's $200M contract is probably the "legitimate" neighborhood Cueto's agent wants to see...

I'd say the Latos/Simon selloff was just a way to cut payroll, possibly calling it good timing before a Latos injury relapse, or Simon falling back to what he always was before last year's first half miracle, and a pre-seasopn ticket sales ploy at feigning keeping Cueto...NOT a budgetary path for Cueto's contract. I don't believe Banana Bob's Money machine has an endless supply of cash for 9 digit contracts, and after last season watching most of the highest paid Reds take most of the season off, I can understand reluctance to enter into another.

Here's the real rub- as an exclusively expensive lame duck free agent, no team is going to give a fraction of real value in trade for Cueto at any time, but even less when most interest is likely- Mid/late summer post season push time...when a 2-3 month rental is going to fetch the next Nick Massett and Micah Owings.

Sorry, I believe that full time baseball executives like Jocketty had to have had better than an inkling that a top SP would fetch $200M, and if that was water too deep for the Reds, they would have been better served finding a suitable trade then sign (or vice-versa) partner and gotten real trade value in return LAST WINTER. Not saying that they're pennant swaying differences, but the Padres got Matt Kemp AND $30M for Yasmani Grandal. They also got a lame duck Justin Upton for a freakin ex-setup reliever. The got a young, ex AL ROY for a promise. THEN they signed James Shields as a free agent for less than half Scherzer money. IN ONE OFFSEASON.

The Reds got Suarez and Desclafani and signed Brendan Boesch and Jason Marquis. Just saying.

 

[JohnU]

Well, San Diego ain't won anything yet but they kick-started the ticket sales.
The biggest end of this has apparently been where the teams are likely to be able to trade a guy. Matt Kemp would not have come to Cincy on any kind of deal past a Choo contract. But he's academic to the discussion about who you get for how much and for how long, behind which barn.

Not being privy to the in's and out's of a contract discussion with Cueto, clearly he's not going to be wearing the wishbone C next year and that was pretty clear all along. It appeared at the time that the Reds planned a long-term rotation around Homer Bailey and what they believe are a bunch of HR hitters. They will sign Leake probably and hope that Lorenzen and Iglesias can get the side out.

I don't know if their plans for Stephenson are more than lip service, which continually galls me. I frankly don't give a crap about the arbitation clock. Putting Marquis and Maholm in service ahead of the No. 1 draft picks is just way too dense to suit me.

Could be Desclafani can get people out.

Could be, Mount St. Helens will never erupt.

 

[redsfan03]

Yeah, I think Walt kind of screwed the pooch on this one. A midseason trade involving Cueto won't generate as much return as an offseason trade (though the Latos and Simon trades generated the equivalent of a toilet plunger and some one-ply toilet paper). They'll get decent return, but the current Reds front office doesn't seem to have a very good eye for prospects. The Latos trade doesn't make sense given that the Reds weren't going to be able to afford Cueto either way. Unless the Reds knew something about Latos medically that we don't, that salary dump was largely useless.

Hindsight is 20/20, but the Reds would have been better off allocating Homer Bailey-type money toward Cueto before he became this expensive. Can't completely fault Walt for that one because there was no way of telling whether Cueto would stay healthy, but I was never a fan of the Bailey contract. The contract for Brandon Phillips was even more ill-advised and further tied the hands of the organization financially.

What shocks me is how barren the minor league system is. That guys like Jason Marquis have positions on this roster indicates how little faith the organization has in its farm system. I don't know if it's poor talent evaluation, poor development, or poor trades, but Walt has struck out on the farm system. That's why I think we could be in for a half decade similar to the one that the Cubs just experienced. It will be important for the Reds to hit on their draft picks like the Cubs did or a half decade could turn into a decade.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Actually, I don't think the Reds farm is in bad shape, as far a farm systems go. They've got as much MLB product as any team lately, and there are still several believed to be ready in the next year or two. That's about as good as it gets really...the Reds (and all teams) problem is timing....No team thrives with a 3-5 player turnover to farmhands every year...PR is one thing, but check on the Cubs at the end of the year for the reality of what 4 rookies in the lineup truly produces.

The Reds real problem is they went all in to win a couple years ago, and didnt. If things had went as planned, and the Reds made deep playoff appearences and went to a Series, they might have raised enough season tickets and increased prices enough to signed Cueto, or just had to sell off and rebuild anyway if they couldn't have. The Phillies over signed their stars at the height of a mini NL dynasty, and are paying for that now both in lack of talent and smothering in salary. So, you gotta be careful what you ask for, sometimes you get it. The only thing worse than not signing all these Reds would be signing them all for 7-10 years and not getting anything out of them for half that time.

In a perfect world, the next big thing is ready just as the last big thing leaves, but that is rare, especially if you need that miracle for 4-5 players at one time. Most contenders don't like more than 1 rookie position player and 1 rookie pitcher at the same time, and no more than 1 last breath oldie. It looks to be the Reds have missed their timing in the pitching staff, and are going to be short a few out getters for a while. They do have several P in the system that liok like they may be valuable sooner than later. For whatever reason, Hamilton is the only starting quality OF the system has churned out since Jay Bruce. That seems to me to be a bigger systemic problem- lack of ability to produce hitters.

 

[JohnU]

The intangible to the farm-system is that you can't outguess the free agency market and the trade process. Often, you end up signing a Chapman or Iglesias or Puig without much showing up on the radar. This is presumptuous, but the Reds have had a very good history of appealing to Cubano ballplayers. The thaw in relations could matter. Not saying anybody is polishing a crystal baseball to know that.
It's just ... out there.

Going in, the Cardinals policy of signing top level college age pitchers is paying dividends. They seem able to deal with turnover like losing Lohse or Garcia. They also bring their talent to the Show and let them learn from real experience. The Reds seem more into younger projects (yes, projects) that don't make the majors in a timely fashion, if ever. It galls me that the Reds have these high draft picks and never fuckin' use them.

At least Mesoraco got a chance.

Lorenzen seems likely to get a look, but not a real good look. Howard and Stephenson can just forget it.

This team has a history of clogging up its roster with 2-year deals for guys who have no real pedigree or prospect. The Ludwick, Schumaker, Cairo, Pena signings are classic examples. Of the lot, Pena seems a good deal but only because we had no choice but to use him. He's still a backup.

Cincy can afford Cueto, but why? Why give $200 million to a pitcher who might have 2 more ace-like years in him? Nothing is worse than an ace who can only deal a pair of 9's every fifth day. Verlander, Zito, Lincecum, Sabathia, Santana ... just a few guys who still are OK big-league pitchers ... but not Moses leading his team to the Promised Land. Looking at Darvish and Tanaka, yeah ... it's risky business.

Even if Cueto stays, I still see a long list of has-beens being signed to pitch the last 2 rotation slots instead of actually PROMOTING a No. 1 draft pick. (Hint, if the guy is a No. 1 pick and he can't make the team, what's wrong? Is Paul Maholm really better?) Bizarre.

I just wish we had a lefthander who could throw 102 mph.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Great points John.

I see the Reds as a house with some cracks in the infrastructure- nice paint on the exterior, and they overspent on some impressive landscaping that is liable to wither and die before they pay it off, but the foundation has some serious flaws- not just the players - but WHY they have the players they do, and why so few of those bonus babies wind up deserving their draft status.

In 2010 the Reds took Mike Leake as the #8 overall pick. Not that Leake is a failure- he IS a legitimate MLB SP- by definition a draft success. But...they overlooked some guy named Mike Trout and a few other worthy MLB's players to draft a 5'10" 160 lb. 2 year college pitcher with an 87 mph fastball. Just saying, their scouting isn't perfect yet.

Drew Stubbs was a Reds #1 pick- got all the way to MLB without a clue about plate philosophy, respectable contact or bunting. They didn't bench him or platoon him, or even give him an occasional bunt sign. He hit .300 last year as a platoon player for the Rockies. The Reds could use a few instructors, too. If they can't find instructors, they need more scouts to avoid flawed players who aren't getting better in their farm.

They signed a non-drafted free agent named Edwin Encarnacion and let him pout and loaf and boot every 3rd grounder and go hitless until mid summer every season because they didn't have anyone better to replace him with. They eventually traded him to the Blue jays, who sent him packing to the minors after a short stint. After that, he's hit 30HR/100RBI each of the last 4 years.

They sign a 105 mph Cuban lefty to lead the rotation for the next 5 years, and end up never allowing him to start a single MLB regular season game. Not one attempt, even though he was clearly the most dominant SP in 2 consecutive spring trainings. The Reds could use a manager and/or a GM with some balls, a little discipline and grasp of the chain of command and greater good of the team in mind too. They could also use 3 more starting pitchers in the rotation right now, which contains zero lefties or 100 mph fastballs. Chapman is dependent on a lead in the 9th inning to get in a game. Go figure.

I think the Reds need to find some continuity the only place they really have any control of that- in their franchise staffs- minor league instructors and scouting. They need a MLB dugout staff trying more to win games than friends, and they need the support of the front office in enforcing efforts to meet higher expectations. The probably need to employ a Geico therapist or ex- Marine Drill Sergeant too- to kick a little arse occasionally amongst all the spoiled asses they kiss into complacency every year. Underperforming should be less comfortable that it appears to be on the Reds, IMO. They "needed" Scott Rolen to instill work ethic in Dusty's clubhouse ? Didn't Mat Latos say the same thing about the post-Rolen and post-Dusty Reds ? Of course, every player still in the Reds clubhouse disagrees, from their recliner.

Those things require long term dedication and discipline though, and the Reds haven't had a lengthy enough ownership that cared and /or lasted long enough to develop that, I guess. I'm hoping the Castellini's will figure that all out sometime before Billy Beane writes a sequel on how to make the playoffs every year on a half a MLB payroll, and the Cardinals win their 10-12th consecutive NLC.