Regular Season

[chico ruiz]

i hear you loud and clear hit-n-run. but, at least hoover didn't bust his belt buckle swinging at a strike. a professional athlete with a eating disorder? i get it. it is a disorder. i'm sure it can be as challenging as any other addiction, but with all the conditioning, diet, exercise, and financial advantages they have it boggles the mind. the competition is so stiff and the game is so fast now that ballplayers really have no choice but to keep themselves in good shape. the sawx must be asking themselves, 'what have we done?' sandoval still has 80 million left on a contract that could be a baseball bellwether for catastrophic. on the other hand, if boston didn't do their due diligence, then they get what they deserve. nevertheless, conditioning and strengthening really is important. when i saw johnny damon arrive at spring training in 2007 with what looked like a beer gut, i knew it would be a bad year for him. no way way was he going to get into (162) game shape in a month. no freegin way. the problem with the extra weight is it tends to cause other injuries not cardio related. once these guys get into there thirties, if they're not taking care of themselves year round, it gets increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to get back into shape as quickly as when they were 20. but, your point is taken. it is a slap in the face of a baseball fan that a multi-millionaire doesn't come prepared to compete in his chosen profession.

 

[eburg5000]

You would think it would be in their best interest to be in the best shape they can. At this level everyone is good. I was watching a spring training game broadcast of the Cardinals. And Jim Edmonds was talking about when he came up that everyone had talent and to stay in the big leagues you have to find every advantage you can. and staying in good shape was just one, He also said you have to think a head. What to do in every situation. sort of like chess

 

[JohnU]

Schebler is being given a chance to win the CF job. It's his to lose.

 

[JohnU]

My god, is this team actually made of concrete?

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Alfredo Simon had a great first half in 2014, but his second half ERA was over 4.50. He was 5.00+ last year with Detroit, so given his age and trending decline in performance, I'd say his tank is out of gas.

Boom Boom Hoover got the Reds' first save of the season. Save is a poor description of the way JJ goes about the closers role. It more like try and not give up a run per out.

Schebler in CF for Hamilton is most likely just another desperate attempt to inject some offense into the mix. It didn't help the offense, but it did add 4 unearned runs. Hamilton handicaps the offense, but Schebler handicaps the offense and defense.

Schebler's BA dropped to .207 after going o'fer yesterday. He hit around .240 in AAA last year, so I don't expect him to hit more than .220- 230 tops with the occasional long ball. Scouts had him rated as near his ceiling when the Reds acquired him, if they are correct, what we're seeing may be all there is to see.

 

[chico ruiz]

i don't know h-n-r. without trying to be repeatedly pedantic, it's going to be a tough transitional year for the reds. i'm sure as a season ticket holder it will be increasingly difficult to stomach. hang in there. cincinnati needs people and fans like you. 1507 put it best when he posted that he just loves the game and will attend regardless. i think most of the posters on this board share that love of the game. it seems to me, as reds fans, we will have to keep our collective sense of humor this year. we can't come on this board and pick these players apart game after game. that would be too dispiriting for 150 more games.

i think schebler keeps pitchers more honest than billy does. the defense? as fans, we have to hope it gets better for him and suarez. billy's offensive problems? we've discussed every aspect on this board. i think 1507 even did a detailed swing analysis. habits formed that weren't modified etc., and summarily goes back to development and instruction. i think those things will improve in the william's years. i'm not being overly optimistic. i think he recognized this organizational weakness a long time ago and will demand improvement -sooner than later- moving forward. but, there really are some things to be optimistic about. the reds will effectively get an entire starting rotation back by mid - may if all goes well. moscot, desclafani, bailey, and lamb. i'm not sure about lorenzen's progress. but, if he gets back to form, maybe you have a closer alternative there. as of now, the strength of the reds organization is still the young highly rated pitching. stephenson, reed, garrett, mella, travieso, davis, finnegan, lorenzen, and more. iglesias and desclafani are both just 26.

i'm interested to see what they look like without bruce and / or phillips, and who becomes the everyday right fielder & second baseman. in house replacements aren't bad. they're just untested. peraza, blandino, trahan, ervin, schebler, aquino, etc etc. you guys know the numbers and various levels of development. i might be wrong, but i think the reds have to trade some of the above mentioned young pitching for additional offensive bolstering at those positions. no mlb team will give up a higher level prospect for phillips at either position. maybe some team -that hasn't seriously contended in a while- is desperate enough for a left-handed power bat -come july- to take a chance on a 30 year old nearing the end of his contract. probably not, which leads you back to the strength of the reds organization: a glut of young highly rated (perceived or real) pitching. pensacola's staff has been very good thus far. garrett, davis, travieso, stephens, and romano. i can envision other organizations wanting some of these pitchers and willing to part with some highly rated bats. plus, the reds have higher draft picks coming and a wad of mlb accumulated cash for other signings. for the nearer future, how the reds decide to arrange (develop, keep, or trade) these young pitching prospects will be the epicenter of the their success in the next few years.

 

[eburg5000]

I really like Hamiltons defense. I think the Reds should play him everyday and see if his offense will come around. I don't think they have much to lose this year anyway.
Schebler has only played in 29 games this season. Playing him the way they have seems aright to me. See what the kid can do. This is a good year for tryouts.
Almost 2 weeks into the season and the Reds are 500. I'd be tinkled pink if we finish the season 500 or close to that. But I won't hold my breath.

 

[JohnU]

Yawn, another 250 words on the state of the organization. At least use capital letters, Chico.

Since THIS thread deals with the regular season, unlike the one that deal with spring training, and none of them have been about the yawn -- ongoing state of the organization -- it's a wonder anybody posts on this board.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Small group of posters and I'd like to see everyone keep posting. I understand certain topics aren't of intetest to everyone, if a topic doesn't interest me, I don't post. But it's easy enough to resolve, all we need is another thread. I find interest in Chico's post and will start a thread on the Current state of the Reds and beyond.

 

[eburg5000]

It seems that after two weeks the Reds have some things to be excited about.
Cozart is swinging the bad better than anybody on the team so far.
Suarez is still swinging the bat well and only has 5 E's.
Duvall is hitting well so far and is playing solid defense,
Schebler was, but not so much lately.
I'd like to see them put Hamilton out there and let him sink or swim, and let him know its time to produce with the bat.
Bruce is still hitting,
Philips is hitting but playing the worst defense in all the time he been with the Reds.
Mesoraco is still in spring training mode. And Barnhart is waiting .
Pacheco seems like a good pick up, and has been producing with the bat as a pinch hitter.
The Starting pitching needs to go farther than 5 innings into the game.
The bull pen is not terrible yet. Just Hoover.

I just retired and am bored to death, Please bare with my longer than usual post.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I agree with eburg, and in order to digest the inedible menu this year, have to concentrate on what is tasty around the edges. Maybe Bruce has learned what he should have earlier- they do counts hits to LF too.

If they could find the plate a little more, lots of pitchers have bat missing ability. All the Cueto lefties - Finnegan, Reed and Lamb fall in that category, and could help the Reds this year, especially if one is used as a reliever-Cingrani as the solo lefty bullpenner is a concern. Lorenzen may take awhile, and unless he pitches better than I remember, may not hurt the Reds by being away. They need Bailey. I hope they don't rush him back too soon, but they need someone that can frequently get into the 7th inning.

Hamilton has to stop getting 2 strikes so quickly to make better use of that toothpick he's bringing to the plate. Needs to stop the stupidity- faking a bunt on a strike for one. Seeing a lot of pitches is normally recommended by normal leadoff types, but he doesn't qualify as normal. He doesn't have the ability to hit with 2 strikes, and as little as he's going to be walked, those few walks cant make up for a 2/20 stretch. He has to get wood on the ball, and he just can't succeed hitting popups when he does. He needs line drives, but I would take a couple of first pitch bunts every three games. The Reds D has been bad, and makes the pitching that much worse, so Hamilton can help tremendously if he hits. If he can't hit at least .230, he's gonna be a D replacement and PR- luxuries a rebuild usually can't afford much of. They may need to bring Peraza up and take Billy down.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Homer is set to begin a rehab assignment according to Price. Three starts of 4-5-6 and if all goes well they plan to activate him. That would put him back by mid May which is only a week more than a year after surgery.

DeSclafani, I'm not hearing much on him.

Lamb was placed on rehab assignment 4/16, he went 3 IP totaling 65 pitches.

As more SP are gaining better health, the rotation picture is beginning to get crowded at the MLB level. Is Lamb a possible LHP bullpen candidate? They need another lefty, especially one that can dominate LHB. DeSclafani's health status, Straily's and Simon's performance, and Homer's return are all factors in near term decisions as well.

Finnegan and Iglesias have pitched well, Homer is guaranteed a spot and DeSclafani would have to be viewed as number 4. Who is going to be number 5?

Lorenzen has begun throwing again. They say he lost 20 lbs. after a bout of mono, he may be headed to the bullpen. The more Price can define roles for the young power arms the better for the big club's bullpen. I see Lorenzen as power RH setup man..... closer? Maybe.

Coming off the St. Louis series:
When did the Cardinals become a HR dominate offense? They scored 20 of their 26 runs against the Reds via the long ball. For the season they've scored 45% of their runs on HR's. It sure would have been nice to have gotten that game Sunday and left St. Louis with a series win.

 

[JohnU]

I think the Reds bullpen pitchers are so predictable that it's easy to pick a pitch and drive it. Whoever is calling for a get-me-over on the first pitch needs to stop. Of course, if a pitcher throws 9 in a row off the plate, get-me-overs are necessary.

I think Lorenzen will end up being the closer.
Jumbo is on his way out.

Moscot appears to have a spot in the rotation for now.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Don't know how I forgot Moscot? It has been a while since he pitched.... yesterday.

Moscot gave the Reds what they needed. The sixth got away a bit with the HBP and subsequent walk, but overall he had solid outing for his first time out.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Any predictions on Dan Straily tonight?

 

[Redsfan1507]

If Straily pitches, I'd predict 80% chance of balls, with scattered strikes just enough to get pummeled occasionally. Great stuff in the pen, just has a tough time on the real mound. Sure is getting a lot of appearences though. Might be toast by Memorial Day at this pace.

 

[JohnU]

I would be surprised if we saw anything like what is known as a "quality start," but I think he will limit the HRs to solo shots after the first inning.

 

[chico ruiz]

some of you baseball junkies might find this interesting.
The Prescription That Fixed Dan Straily | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Nice article Chico.
Gives a better perspective to view the guy from. If he already has two quality secondary pitches, the increased velocity would be huge if he demonstrates some level of command.

I'll be keeping a eye on the radar gun tonight.

 

[JohnU]

94 in the zone is 94 in the zone. In GABP, one hopes it's not 94 in the sun deck.