Reds draft

[JohnU]

Cincinnati Reds

3B Nick Senzel, Tennessee

After going undrafted out of high school, Senzel is the highest drafted player in Tennessee history. (Todd Helton went eighth overall in 1995.) Senzel is a classic "safe" college bat with great stats -- he hit .325/.456/.595 with eight homers, 25 steals, 40 walks, and 21 strikeouts in 57 games this spring -- and solid tools. He's a patient right-handed hitter who knows how to hammer mistakes, and his dominant showing in the Cape Cod League last summer (led the league with a .976 OPS) showed he can handle high-end pitching with a wood bat. The only real question is Senzel's ultimate position. He's played all over the infield for the Volunteers and has the arm for third, but he's not particularly quick or smooth in the field, leading some to believe he'll wind up at first base down the road.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I like Senzel....except apparently his agent is Scott Boras.

 

[Redsfan1507]

...which would make a sign demand of top dollar AND immediate inclusion to the 40 man roster for his client more probable...putting limits on how long the Reds can keep Senzel in the bus leagues.


Meanwhile, the Cardinals #1 was a 17 yr. SS old from PR, that has already failed a PED test.

 

[JohnU]

With the No. 35 overall pick -- and the first pick of the Competitive Lottery Round A -- the Reds took high school outfielder Taylor Trammell. An 18-year-old that is listed at 6-foot-2 and 195 pounds, Trammell is from Mount Paran Christian School in Kennesaw, Ga.

Trammell hit .463 with six home runs and 22 steals in his senior season.

C Chris Okey of Clemson University went in the second round (43rd overall).

Okey (5-11, 195, BR, TR), 21, has played for five U.S. national teams and in 2013 was drafted by the San Diego Padres out of high school. This season he hit .399 and led the Tigers with 81 hits and 74 RBI, both career highs. He also established career bests with 15 HR and 61 runs scored in his 64 starts.

 

[chico ruiz]

the reds were in a bind after trading frazier. they didn't have a viable mlb defensive third baseman at spring training. this board touched on it a little bit. mostly, there were comments, after the fact, about suarez's defense during the first few months of the season. i think it's important to ask: what does it say about an mlb organization that -quite literally- goes to spring training without a 3rd baseman?

as many on this board have said, draftees / prospects offer no guarantees, and you don't know how long it will take them to arrive @ gabp, if ever. but, sometimes you're good & lucky. my guess is buckley was a very happy man to see senzel available yesterday. i hope his strike zone knowledge and pitch recognition translates to the mlb level. i know there were some defense questions this year at tennessee, but he doesn't back pedal and has quick reactions. i like the pick, and hope it works out for the reds, in terms of rapid ascension through the [uh-hmm] system.

the outfield and what type of team the reds envision being? the draft can't necessarily answer this question, but let me offer a quick observation. as of now, duvall looks like the real thing. emphasis on offense & 'as of now.' if he is close to a 30 / 90 type and cuts down on k's, it's huge for the reds. he's made some highlight reel diving catches, but his routes to those flyballs necessitated his diving. he circled back and around to a couple i saw. he was frozen on another. other good mlb outfielders would have taken more direct routes and made running catches or picked up the ball earlier. my guess is that duvall's defense will get better moving forward, but it's vital to keep would-be doubles to singles etc. over 162 games. it's much more important than meets the eye of most fans. present company exempted, of course. billy hamilton's development? wait and hope. i have nothing further on that. here's the crux: assuming the reds trade or buy out bruce, the reds organizational outfield depth is thin. very thin. like step on it and you go straight to the bottom of the lake thin. you can tag winker, he's it. the reds have had rodriquez for 7-8 years now. safe to say his development has been [uh-hmm] delayed. schebler, ervin, and waldrop. thin, thinner, and thinnest. there's a reason the reds have peraza playing some outfield. thin. that's why it wouldn't surprise me to see the reds pick outfielders in the draft. btw, just because there are 29 other teams doing the same thing, doesn't mean you don't go after what you want with all the resources you can muster. the reds may have another idea about outfield acquisition that doesn't include this year's draft. regardless, from what i can see, the reds need help in the outfield yesterday. not the obvious 2016 mlb reds on-field outfield shortcomings, but in terms of overall organizational outfield depth. imo, this has to be an area of immediate concern for the reds, before it reaches crisis level.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Agents like Scott Boras would have to be the biggest single factor in the current draft slot rules.

Looking at the first three Reds draft picks the one that might the hardest to sign is Taylor Trammell. He's committed to play college ball and his draft position could improve in a couple years. It's reported that teams passed on him because they thought he wouldn't sign. He's either going to be a great bargain or a lost draft pick.

Senzel just finished his Jr. season at Tennessee and getting drafted 2nd overall doesn't leave much room for improvement. When they changed the CBA to slot values, they also did away with Major League deals for draftees and shortened the signing period. The rules are meant to lessen player leverage. I think he'll sign for near slot value.

I like the 2nd round pick of C Chris Okey better than last year's number 11 overall selection of HS C Tyler Stephenson. He's might sign for less than slot value.

The Reds may try to take cash from the other slots to sweeten Trammell's deal. If they can get all three signed it's a great draft today..... 5 years from now....
Who knows?

 

[JohnU]

The Reds have agreed to terms with Nick Senzel

Senzel, a third baseman out of Tennessee, will receive a $6.2 million bonus, according to a source. Slot value for the pick was $7,762,900. The club did not confirm that a deal is in place.

• Reds' 2016 Draft picks

Senzel was considered the best collegiate bat in the Draft after leading the Southeastern Conference with 25 doubles this year. He also was named 2015 Cape Cod League Most Valuable Player.

Senzel, who turns 21 on June 29, hit .352/.456/.595 with eight home runs and 59 RBIs in 57 games this season for the Volunteers.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I see where the Reds nearly doubled Lottery Pick Taylor Trammell's bonus to sign him and threw in a extra $500k to sign 2nd rounder Chris Okey.

Through the first 4 picks the Reds are $400k+ over budget. They can go $700k over without being penalized future draft picks, but they would owe a $525,000 cash penalty.

Compared to investments the team has made in retaining veterans that haven't worked out well in recent years...... spending an additional $500k and penalty on prospects sounds prudent.

The Reds shouldn't be in the long term extension business, they should be in talent acquisition and development business. Both methods can fail, but one of them cost a helluva lot more and the damage can be irreparable.

 

[JohnU]

I don't think Cincy currently has anybody who deserves consideration for a long-term extension, with the possible exception of Billy Hamilton. (Yeah, I wrote that.) I would do it for none of the pitching. If they had that in mind, they could have sewn up Chapman last winter.

I think the ongoing strategy in the small markets is to crawl through open windows, get what you can grab, and move on to the next house.

I read mixed reviews on Okey.



Discussions lately about the Reds and the outfield, and how the draft affects that. As is often the case, most infielders can be taught to play left field. Not many left fielders can be taught to play 2nd base.

Just bring a bat, in case we need that.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

Scouting reports are all we have to go by initially, but as we've learned over the years scouting reports often turn out to be worth less than the paper they're written on. We're still waiting for Brandon Larson's projections to materialize.

In 2007, the scouts were projecting the Reds' player that would hit for average was Jay Bruce and the power hitter was Joey Votto. Votto does have power, but they missed by a long shot on the BA.

The consensus on Okey seems to indicate he'll be good enough to be a everyday catcher, but not an All Star caliber player. For all I know he may be selling used cars in three years or win the Reds' catcher job by default.

I've never seen any of the draft picks play, so my opinion is based on what somebody else wrote. In reality all we have is a third party opinion until we actually see these guys play.

Billy Hamilton should have already been extended.....
an invitation back to AAA. The Reds have been 58 games under .500 since BH became the starting CF. Obviously not all BH 's fault, but he hasn't helped. He has slashed for .244/288/.337 during his wasted service time. He's a good example of why teams shouldn't waste MLB service time on players that still need development. By the time they're ready to contribute they're into arbitration and knocking on the free agency door.

 

[JohnU]

I think Hamilton's numbers would look better in a lineup that could churn. There are too many outs in the Cincy lineup. With men on 1st and 2nd, it's harder for the 3B to take away the bunt.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

The lack of base runners is one factor.

Another factor would be BH is the only speed threat in the lineup. Put speed on the base paths and it changes everything for the defense. The threat of stealing 3B forces the defense to defend the entire diamond. Get a couple guys like Peraza working in tandem with BH and they'd be much harder to defend.

You can't be an effective running team if only one guy is running

 

[chico ruiz]

it looks like the reds signed their top three picks by negotiating the bonuses, as h-n-r outlined in his previous post. a little over 10 million bucks later and you have 2 instant millionaires who haven't played a 1/2 inning of professional baseball. i'm not begrudging these kids their pay day. i'm emphasizing how much things have changed, in terms of financials.

i've been critical of the administrative in redsland, but the there is no denying their successes in drafting the last 10 years. cba's, agents, and contracts aside, somebody in the reds organization saw jake arrieta's potential a decade ago. votto, bruce, cozart, frazier, hamilton, grandal, alonso, boxberger, mesoraco, bailey, wood, turner, leake, barnhart, etc etc. all have had varying degrees of mlb success. the reds tend to stick with their draftees. it's a little bit of an older mlb business model, but that's a lot of good mlb players to name off the top of my head. i -like most of you, i suspect- would love it if the reds could have kept all the above players. it would be a helluva team.

sadly, we all know what has happened with baseball economics. i wish the owners hadn't held onto the reserve clause -like grim death itself- for so long. again, i don't begrudge the players getting theirs, but holy jumping shitballs??!! i'm glad hal finally brought some semblance of sanity to the steinbrenner ownership. 30 million bucks to play 162 games? that goes beyond over-paying to a perverted distortion of reality, fairness, and overall league equity. we all know the progression of insults to fans of our ilk. koufax & drysdale holding out for $0.00, curt flood, marvin miller, catfish hunter, george steinbrenner, the home run gaze augmented by peds, and much more. yes, parts of the game have definitely been stolen from us. i choose the word 'stolen' specifically, because they don't give a shit about us, and we're not who they're targeting to bilk anyway.

the reason i mention it is because we belong to a small -sadly, getting smaller every day- group of baseball fans. actually, i think we go well beyond modern fandom. we all experienced the community of it. ted abernathy signing baseballs at the local iga. we remember how the reds had to exit crosley field after the game. i never had a negative experience with any mlb player as a kid. although, i would swear that clemente glared at me after a swing & miss that had him spun around and losing his helmet. i think it was maloney on the mound. if i was picking an all-time team, i would be hard pressed not to make clemente my starting right fielder. clemente. there's an award named after him. the meaning of that award is part of what i'm trying (probably, not successfully) to express here. a community of people, not seeking awards or recognition, helping one another in various ways, big and small. there was a time when it brought people together with no thinly veiled, surreptitious financial agenda. entire communities of mothers giving freely of their time to round up the team and drive it to mason, tipp city, hamilton, middletown, or xenia. they knew what was going on with each kid, and looked after us, beyond herding us around. baseball (adult softball leagues, little league, amateur, and professional) brought us together in a myriad of positive ways. the history of the rosie reds is remarkable for many reasons, but it was their sense of community and friendship that i remember the most. it was the 'game' that brought people together. it was great fun to see the reds winning, but i honestly can't remember much negative talk when they were losing. sure, there was criticizing, but reds fans back then were a lot like brooklyn dodger fans. they hung-in with their team come hell or high water. ironically, high water did come. nevertheless, they were 'devoted' in every sense of the word. yes indeed, there was a communality that transcended just playing or watching baseball. i have countless enduring and endearing cherished memories of that time.

what the hell does this have to do with johnny's draft thread? i don't know. probably something, if it reminded me of these things. i can see my grandmother now, listening to the game, smoking salems, drinking a beer (more than one), hanging on every word. nuxhall says, "when the weather gets hot the doggie gets smoking." grammy loved tony perez. he was the real 'big papi' in my eyes, and paternally inspiring portion of a big communal family.

i think it's important to occasionally remind ourselves about baseball's humble beginnings and what it has meant to past generations. for instance, the elysian fields, in -of all places- hoboken, nj. it's on a street named after sinatra, with condos all around. the importance, significance, and priorities, of which, i could write one of my infuriating tomes on. the difficulty of smaller market teams drafting and keeping players long term is detrimental to the baseball community in those areas. i understand the contemporary economic and social realities, but mlb inc. has made it more difficult to continue loving the game with the same passion. pride night at the trop last night reinvigorated my hope for continued, and more vitally important, mlb community participation. this shouldn't be a exercise in nostalgia. this should be part of our social and cultural fabric that brings out the very best in us, through the platform of the 'game.'

to end where i began; the economic reality of mlb has forced smaller market teams to make unpopular trades earlier, while the above listed players still have a few years of contractual team control left, to obtain 3 or 4 prospects. it wouldn't have been very popular to trade bruce after 2013 for 4 unprovens. no, not popular at all. trading cueto would have been similarly irksome to reds fans. it sucks, but homegrown fan favorite players have to go. can you imagine the uproar amongst the social media types if the reds had traded phillips before his last contract was signed? you can bet all concerned parties knew what was at stake there. no appreciable human interaction, beyond pictures and text involving community participation and betterment.

 

[JohnU]

Baseball draft is about churn, I think. If you look at any given roster, the vast majority of players were signed by some other organization and got shoved around in the sorts of trades that included Cueto and Frazier. It's how the Reds got Brandon Finnegan, Phillips and the other guy named Brandon.

I think the whole crop of kids who gets harvested each year just goes into "professional baseball" and teams spend the next 2 or 3 years sorting them out. If you end up with a Kris Bryant, you smile, and gloat a little. Everyone else is Chad Wallach or Phil Erwin.

To that end, in any real world, there is a finite amount of money that is available to glean through the amateur draft. Of the 700 guys who were drafted, about 300 won't be in pro ball in 3 years, instead replaced by 700 other guys who will get drafted next year.

Signing and keeping "home grown guys" is a nice cocktail party discussion but, really, it doesn't matter.

I liken all this to Mariano Rivera, who would have -- with nearly every other franchise -- left the team when his free agency matured. He stayed with the Yanks because they could afford to sign him. Make of it what you will but I think it's clear that the Yanks would not have lost Aroldis Chapman to a trade. He would have been under a Rivera-type contract.

That is the impact of the economics market in baseball.

In order for the Reds to keep a franchise player like Votto, they have to break the bank. Had they lost Votto to free agency, it would have been just another day at the office. Stanton at Miami is another example.

This is not all that enlightening, however.

We can blame the economics of baseball on cable TV, and lord knows, what cable TV did for us otherwise. Baseball is global now in all respects. The potential for income is other-worldly.

I have learned to appreciate my indy league team more and -- I can assure you -- the roster turnover in indy ball is mind-blowing. Still, it's about the franchise, my buds and the bras at the ballpark and the ongoing love of having somebody to root for. I am not inclined to support the lesser of two evils.

The other part is that some of the 700 guys who got drafted this year will be playing in Gary in a couple of years.

 

[Redsfan1507]

At least I didn't see any evidence the Reds took a secondary consideration player 8 rounds too early just to drive the money down. They've done that occasionally in the past. Time will tell how they did in the draft, but obviously higher picks should yield better players. I have to say, as short lived as the Reds "pitching depth" was, it is a reminder that the old saying "You never have enough pitching" is still true, IMO.

I've always said drafting is just one piece, and arguably, development is as if not more important- unfortunately, the Reds haven't historically developed baseball 101 skills in the minors well, and graduate some of the least intelligent baseball IQ players, for sure fire MLB disappointment . Gotta ask more questions than the stats tell you from low minors- Jay Bruce didn't hit well in AA on MLB quality breaking balls- he did so on AA fastballs. I've heard the (weak) argument that you can't learn to hit the MLB breaking ball facing AA fastballs, but I also know there has to be more to "development" of skills, than playing games against 50% inferior competition...especially for higher picks expected to be impact players one day. It also helps if someone paid to notice in the minors, sees a player that has speed, no power, and can't bunt, or only gets K's on fastballs out of the zone, and has no breaking pitch he can throw for a strike...and does something about it before he is a 3 year MLB veteran.

The economics of baseball has been largely suicide by stupidity...and substantial greed, on all parties accounts. No kid that isn't old enough to buy a legal beer should get a $7M check, and be expected to be mature enough to handle the baggage that brings OUTSIDE baseball, by himself, much less develop new skills with all that distraction. Free agency eligibility later, it makes more sense to play a MVP $30M a year for a couple years than $25M/YR for ten years. When the court ruled MLB guilty of collusion all those years ago, they sentenced MLB to a system dictated more by agents than by economics, or good sense.

 

[JohnU]

Just talked to a guy on the inside with the indy league teams and if you have not noticed, a lot of pitchers are being plucked from the indy rosters this summer, some of them with less pedigree than I have. But they show 88 on the gun and they are CHEAP. Gary lost a pitcher to Arizona who wasn't even drafted last year, pitched in the indy leagues and came to Gary as a reliever. He was tossed into the rotation as an emergency and 3 starts later, he's gone.

If they work out, fine ... if not ... no loss. It fills in holes for teams that don't want to spend a lot of money through the international pool.

These indy guys usually have predictable tools. If they haven't had an arm problem, by now ... they might not. Most are early to mid-20s.