Projecting Kentucky against the Top 25 Teams

[TangoBlue]

Kentucky?s Odds vs. the AP Top-25 | Kentucky Sports Radio

This is just an interesting projection from the Kentucky Sports Radio site just for fun......so just give it a look and comment if you feel differently

 

[TangoBlue]

 

[TangoBlue]

I decided to make hypothetical lines against the top-25 using Ken Pomeroy’s current data and a formula I’ve developed to predict NFL games. A formula to predict the NFL applied to NCAA basketball games? That’ll never work, you scream emphatically! Don’t be so sure about that. The only items you need to predict scores in any league are team efficiency totals along with tempo averages. Once you have those, in addition to league averages, you can make fairly accurate predictions. Since Pomeroy’s site is generally considered to be the most accurate and has all of the necessary data, I decided to use it in the predictions. While his site already offers predictions on future games, he only considers the games that are currently on a team’s schedule. Since my formula will predict a score within a few points of his (for instance, he predicts a 75-72 victory over Missouri in Columbia while I predict a 74-71 win), I think this is a fair representation of where Kentucky currently stands. Below, you’ll see how the Cats would be predicted to perform against the AP top-25 in a variety of locations. Kentucky’s score is listed first in every single prediction. Since the Cats are listed in the top-25 and obviously can’t play themselves, I dropped them and added the 26th ranked team.

 

[dcZONAfan]

That's all well and good. But I don't think that team could currently beat Arizona, 'Cuse, Wisky, Osu, msu, or even Iowa state at home.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

KY does generally play better at home (I think more than the general home/away metrics account for) plus they usually get a generous whistle in Rupp. And before the UK fans jump on me, I don't think it is egregious like some people say, but I do feel its a little more "homery" than other venues.

I do think UK would be favored at home in almost all of those games if Vegas was setting the lines (except maybe the top 3 or 4) I don't necessarily think they would win all of them.

As always, the stats are a good place to start, but I'd never rely on them entirely. As has been preached here by smarter people than I, basketball is all about matchups. And until someone shows me a good way on paper to evaluate matchups and quantify them, I'm not relying solely on a computer to tell me who to bet on.

 

[TangoBlue]

That's all well and good. But I don't think that team could currently beat Arizona, 'Cuse, Wisky, Osu, msu, or even Iowa state at home.

I'm nowhere near as knowledgeable as most sports pundits on here; but I would be interested in knowing why you think UK couldn't even beat one of those teams at Rupp Arena. Seems to me that even the luck of the gods would allow UK to win one of them.

As I recollect....UK was definitely in the game with MSU till the very end of the game earlier this year{and they weren't at Rupp and didn't have much experience at all playing together}

 

[dcZONAfan]

I'm nowhere near as knowledgeable as most sports pundits on here; but I would be interested in knowing why you think UK couldn't even beat one of those teams at Rupp Arena. Seems to me that even the luck of the gods would allow UK to win one of them.

As I recollect....UK was definitely in the game with MSU till the very end of the game earlier this year{and they weren't at Rupp and didn't have much experience at all playing together}

i guess what I meant was that, in one game, I would expect those teams to beat UK no matter where the game is played, and that applies RIGHT NOW only. I think by the end of the year you will be much better than you are at this moment.

Of course if you played every one of those teams at home you wouldn't lose all of the games, i didn't mean to imply that

 

[TangoBlue]

i guess what I meant was that, in one game, I would expect those teams to beat UK no matter where the game is played, and that applies RIGHT NOW only. I think by the end of the year you will be much better than you are at this moment.

Of course if you played every one of those teams at home you wouldn't lose all of the games, i didn't mean to imply that

Not a problem dcZONAfan You're giving your opinion and of course you would tend to favor your team and at least the rest of the teams in the top ten.

However, I am of the opinion that once you get to number 11 and up...UK would win a bigger majority than they would lose...and that is at this point in time of the season. The Harrison twins are the main UK players who need to step it up even more. Depth of decent players will not be a concern for UK come tournament time