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tzill
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About the quarter pole of the season, so I thought I'd take a look at the PQS scores for the starters.
If you recall we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
A PQS of 4 or 5 is considered "dominant" (DOM) and 0 or 1 a "disaster" (DIS). A helpful metric is DOM% and DIS%.
DOM%: < 40 is poor; 40-50 is good; 50-70 is great; >70 is elite
DIS%: >20 is poor; 10-20 is good; <10 is elite
The numbers:
1. Bum -- avg PQS 2.9; DOM% 50; DIS% 25
2. Horse -- avg PQS 3.2; DOM% 33; DIS% 17
3. Huddy -- 4.1; 75; 0
4. Tim -- 2.5; 50; 38
5. Tron -- 2.8; 38; 25
6. Biggie -- 2.5; 50; 50
Note that Horse only made 6 starts, and Biggie two
It's all SSS at this point, but the metrics say:
Bum: Good overall (avg PQS of 3+ is a good year); dominant and too disaster prone
Horse: Very good overall; not dominant but not very disastrous either
Huddy: Acelike overall; very dominant and no disasters
Tim: Decent overall; good dominance and extremely prone to disasters
Tron: Ok overall; not dominant and disaster prone
Bum is very dominant, but an unusually high bed shit rate, for him. Cain overall is not dominant, but only his first start of the season was a pooping, very consistent. Huddy is having an All Star, Cy Young contention season, he's either dominant or good and mostly dominant. Timmy is the weakest of the five but dominant when he's on, terrible when he isn't, very inconsistent. Tron is interesting -- not quite dominant, and definitely prone to an early exit, but overall edging up on a decent starter.
Another way to read it is that Huddy is an ace and the other four generally keep us in games.
Nothing earth shattering here, but interesting that Cain is better than I thought and Bum a little worse. I'll do this again at mid season and see what changes.
If you recall we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...
1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.
2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.
3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.
4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.
5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.
A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.
Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.
A PQS of 4 or 5 is considered "dominant" (DOM) and 0 or 1 a "disaster" (DIS). A helpful metric is DOM% and DIS%.
DOM%: < 40 is poor; 40-50 is good; 50-70 is great; >70 is elite
DIS%: >20 is poor; 10-20 is good; <10 is elite
The numbers:
1. Bum -- avg PQS 2.9; DOM% 50; DIS% 25
2. Horse -- avg PQS 3.2; DOM% 33; DIS% 17
3. Huddy -- 4.1; 75; 0
4. Tim -- 2.5; 50; 38
5. Tron -- 2.8; 38; 25
6. Biggie -- 2.5; 50; 50
Note that Horse only made 6 starts, and Biggie two
It's all SSS at this point, but the metrics say:
Bum: Good overall (avg PQS of 3+ is a good year); dominant and too disaster prone
Horse: Very good overall; not dominant but not very disastrous either
Huddy: Acelike overall; very dominant and no disasters
Tim: Decent overall; good dominance and extremely prone to disasters
Tron: Ok overall; not dominant and disaster prone
Bum is very dominant, but an unusually high bed shit rate, for him. Cain overall is not dominant, but only his first start of the season was a pooping, very consistent. Huddy is having an All Star, Cy Young contention season, he's either dominant or good and mostly dominant. Timmy is the weakest of the five but dominant when he's on, terrible when he isn't, very inconsistent. Tron is interesting -- not quite dominant, and definitely prone to an early exit, but overall edging up on a decent starter.
Another way to read it is that Huddy is an ace and the other four generally keep us in games.
Nothing earth shattering here, but interesting that Cain is better than I thought and Bum a little worse. I'll do this again at mid season and see what changes.
