Paul Goldschmidt: Worth 2nd Pick?

[Chef99]

I would LOVE for that to happen, but I don't share your confidence. I think he's elite going forward, I'll believe that he can improve on that historic season when I see it.

Can't disagree with that. And there are the aforementioned Dusty Baker along with GM Mike Rizzo to consider...Rizzo makes some puzzling moves as well. Still wondering if Tanner Roark will ever recover.

As to Trout: I certainly wouldn't be unhappy with him, but the Angels seem to be a bit of a mess right now. And there's always the Sciosciapath to deal with. My favorite love/hate manager in baseball. Wouldn't surprise me at all if this turned out to be a down season for Trout. Not up to his standards, anyway.

 

[Omar 382]

I would still take Trout at this point, but Harper was better at the dish last season than Trout's been so far.

Maybe when looking solely at hitting and ignoring defense his 2015 season is better than that of Trout's. But Trout has been putting up this production for four years, while Harper has only done it once. And looking at things more comprehensively, Trout has had a better WAR in 2 of his 4 full seasons than Harper did last year.

 

[Chef99]

Maybe when looking solely at hitting and ignoring defense his 2015 season is better than that of Trout's. But Trout has been putting up this production for four years, while Harper has only done it once. And looking at things more comprehensively, Trout has had a better WAR in 2 of his 4 full seasons than Harper did last year.

Haha I really can't disagree with anyone's points on Harper and Trout.

In any event, I think we can all agree that Goldy is a fine pick in the 2 hole if that's what Redseat decides to do.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Maybe when looking solely at hitting and ignoring defense his 2015 season is better than that of Trout's. But Trout has been putting up this production for four years, while Harper has only done it once. And looking at things more comprehensively, Trout has had a better WAR in 2 of his 4 full seasons than Harper did last year.

WAR has no place in fantasy sports though... The reason why Trout's WAR is better is because he is a CF, he gets the position bonus due to the replacement player being not as good... But in almost all fantasy leagues all OF are made equally... and defense, is used in maybe 1% of all fantasy leagues... You have to assume that when someone says a player is better ON THIS BOARD, we are only talking about fantasy...

And I understand the 4 seasons vs one season argument... but what people get confused about when we talk about sample size is that when there is magnitude, you have to look at that...

For example, if you throw a coin 25 times and you get 24 heads, do you say well you only threw the coin 25 times?? The 24 heads makes you question the coin enough to believe it is faulty...

Baseball analogy, if a pitcher in his rookie season strikes out 300 batters, you don't ignore the pitcher and say he has only done it once, he is clearly a SO pitcher... Of course you could be wrong, nothing in sports is a given...

 

[Omar 382]

Furthermore, I only replied "no" to the statement that Haper's 2015 season was "significantly" better than any of Trout's seasons

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Furthermore, I only replied "no" to the statement that Haper's 2015 season was "significantly" better than any of Trout's seasons

significant might have been too strong... But Harper's 2015 is the clear winner vs any of Trout's seasons...

 

[redseat]

Yes I took Gold at 2nd and Trout did go # 1

 

[Omar 382]

WAR has no place in fantasy sports though... The reason why Trout's WAR is better is because he is a CF, he gets the position bonus due to the replacement player being not as good... But in almost all fantasy leagues all OF are made equally... and defense, is used in maybe 1% of all fantasy leagues... You have to assume that when someone says a player is better ON THIS BOARD, we are only talking about fantasy...

And I understand the 4 seasons vs one season argument... but what people get confused about when we talk about sample size is that when there is magnitude, you have to look at that...

For example, if you throw a coin 25 times and you get 24 heads, do you say well you only threw the coin 25 times?? The 24 heads makes you question the coin enough to believe it is faulty...

Baseball analogy, if a pitcher in his rookie season strikes out 300 batters, you don't ignore the pitcher and say he has only done it once, he is clearly a SO pitcher... Of course you could be wrong, nothing in sports is a given...

Um, if you flip a fair coin 500 times, it will likely be somewhere around 50/50. But baseball players aren't "fair" coins, so I don't know what you're saying

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Um, if you flip a fair coin 500 times, it will likely be somewhere around 50/50. But baseball players aren't "fair" coins, so I don't know what you're saying

yes, you missed it... I didn't say it was a fair coin... what I am saying, is if you get a number that is so far from an expected probability, then you have to assume that there is something special or wrong...

If someone wins 3 mega ball lottery in a row, do you think coincidence?? No you are going to assume cheating...

 

[johnson]

I have the 2nd pick.... I am not taking Trout (assuming he doesn't go 1)... Is he worth the pick?

He definitely could be. The guy literally does everything. There isn't a stat category in most leagues he won't help you with.

 

[Omar 382]

yes, you missed it... I didn't say it was a fair coin... what I am saying, is if you get a number that is so far from an expected probability, then you have to assume that there is something special or wrong...

If someone wins 3 mega ball lottery in a row, do you think coincidence?? No you are going to assume cheating...

Not exactly. Something that happens in a one in a billion chance happens 7 times a day, every day. With enough measurements, nearly nothing is impossible.

But that has nothing to do with why Trout should be taken with the first pick this year.

 

[molsaniceman]

significant might have been too strong... But Harper's 2015 is the clear winner vs any of Trout's seasons...

Depends on what u want 12 homers or 43 SB

Harper 118 R 42 Hr 99 rbi 6 sb 330 ba
trout 129 r 30 hr 83 rbi 49 sb 329 ba

 

[Jim Rome is Flaming]

Seriously. And he is set up for an even better one.

I'm not so sure about that. I think his OBP (and as a result, OPS) was padded by the fact that he was being pitched around so much. Not saying it's impossible that he tops last season, but I'd guess both his BABIP & BB rate drop, leading to something like .310/.410/.640. Still an MVP caliber season, just not quite what he did last year.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Depends on what u want 12 homers or 43 SB

Harper 118 R 42 Hr 99 rbi 6 sb 330 ba
trout 129 r 30 hr 83 rbi 49 sb 329 ba

We took away the SBs... What I said in the original post was since Trout no longer steals bases, we can only look at his offensive numbers... Where Harper's best season was SIGNIFICANTLY better than Trouts...

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Not exactly. Something that happens in a one in a billion chance happens 7 times a day, every day. With enough measurements, nearly nothing is impossible.

But that has nothing to do with why Trout should be taken with the first pick this year.

Now you are arguing two different things... Nobody said it is impossible, just the expectation changes...

Like I said, if a coin is tossed 25 times and lands on heads 24 times, You should believe the coin is weighted and not fair...

no, it doesn't have much to do with trout vs harper- it was a digression... Maybe a little, since Harper's best season was better than any trout season, so you may assume that Harper has the higher ceiling now... It would be a fair assumption...
But I corrected my SIGNIFICANT comment...

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Maybe when looking solely at hitting and ignoring defense his 2015 season is better than that of Trout's. But Trout has been putting up this production for four years, while Harper has only done it once. And looking at things more comprehensively, Trout has had a better WAR in 2 of his 4 full seasons than Harper did last year.

I was just considering offense because we're talking fantasy, but I acknowleged the track record that Trout has over Harper, so we agree on that.

I'm not a huge fan of WAR for various reasons, not least of which being the fact that there are multiple formulas for WAR. A stat that's so widely used and/or abused, it should have a standardized formula. I'm not saying I ignore it, but I certainly don't take it as gospel.

 

[redseat]

haven't looked but does Trout have any protection around him?

 

[molsaniceman]

haven't looked but does Trout have any protection around him?

Trout has Pujols
Harper has zimmerman
Goldy has polluck

 

[redseat]

Trout has Pujols
Harper has zimmerman
Goldy has polluck

Gracias.... Besides Pujols he doesn't have anything else? If not I see his numbers declining as he wont get anything to hit

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Gracias.... Besides Pujols he doesn't have anything else? If not I see his numbers declining as he wont get anything to hit

CJ Cron is the only other power guy... And Cole Calhoun is probably the next best hitter...

So yea, the angels team stats(runs and RBIs) should not be too great this season...