Official 2013 Pirates' Won-Lost Predictions

[magnumo]

Acknowledging Burns80y

You bring the latest list to 14 participants:

87-75 Burgh Sports Rule
85-77 element1286
84-78 Darkstone42
83-79 sychmd
82-80 stillmatic32
81-81 powerchord86
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 itsneon
78-84 Illinest
77-85 SFNL
76-86 TheBurgh88
75-87 thedddd
73-89 magnumo
71-91 thecrow124

Note to thecrow124: Now THAT was a cringe-worthy mental image!

 

[thecrow124]

So on field 4 at Pirate City there were 6 starting pitching candidates working out together, all with some sort of shot at starting the Major League season with the Pirates.

1. AJ Burnett
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. James McDonald
4. Jeff Karstens
5. Jeff Locke
6. Gerrit Cole

So maybe Cole isn't quite so far down the depth chart as I would have been led to believe. Not that I think for an instant that he begins the season in the majors, but he is in this group for a reason and if Neil is feeling some pressure to win, I find it very hard to believe that Cole is not better than 3 pitchers on that list.

 

[ramburgh]

I'll take the 88-74 spot.

I think this is either a team where everything clicks and several of the young guys break out or nothing clicks and the veterans are traded at the deadline. I don't think this is a .500 team - either well above or well below .500.

The outfield is going to get to a lot of balls and the bullpen is going to be solid. We are going to forget about Hanrahan and see him unravel in the AL East.

Marte, Snider or Tabata is going to have a breakout season and Pedro is going to put it together to launch 35+ bombs and hit .270.

 

[magnumo]

Acknowledging ramburgh at 88-74.....

.....and as the new most optimistic poster.

Here's the updated list of 15 participants:

88-74 ramburgh
87-75 Burgh Sports Rule
85-77 element1286
84-78 Darkstone42
83-79 sychmd
82-80 stillmatic32
81-81 powerchord86
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 itsneon
78-84 Illinest
77-85 SFNL
76-86 TheBurgh88
75-87 thedddd
73-89 magnumo
71-91 thecrow124

 

[magnumo]

So on field 4 at Pirate City there were 6 starting pitching candidates working out together, all with some sort of shot at starting the Major League season with the Pirates.

1. AJ Burnett
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. James McDonald
4. Jeff Karstens
5. Jeff Locke
6. Gerrit Cole

So maybe Cole isn't quite so far down the depth chart as I would have been led to believe. Not that I think for an instant that he begins the season in the majors, but he is in this group for a reason and if Neil is feeling some pressure to win, I find it very hard to believe that Cole is not better than 3 pitchers on that list.

According to several reports I've read in today's media, Cole is working out in that group in order to give him exposure to the veterans who are already slated for the rotation. I believe that. I also believe previous quotes from the front office indicating that Cole needs more seasoning in AAA. NH has been pretty steadfast in sticking to his plans and has avoided making any desperation-type moves, even in the face of failed moves and team collapses.

Bottom line: I wouldn't even put Cole on the depth chart yet. At least I see him behind all the guys you listed, plus McPherson, Liriano, Sanchez, and even Morton. On the other hand, if he pitches well at Indy, I expect he will move up the depth chart pretty fast by mid-season.

 

[WVUinVegas]

I will take 162-0!!

Just kidding, I want 72-90

 

[magnumo]

OK, WVUinVegas.....

.....you're the 16th participant to join the list:

88-74 ramburgh
87-75 Burgh Sports Rule
85-77 element1286
84-78 Darkstone42
83-79 sychmd
82-80 stillmatic32
81-81 powerchord86
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 itsneon
78-84 Illinest
77-85 SFNL
76-86 TheBurgh88
75-87 thedddd
73-89 magnumo
72-90 WVUinVegas
71-91 thecrow124

 

[evolver115]

74-88

Cannot stand the thought of a 90+ loss season.

 

[Darkstone42]

It looks like 86-76 is the only record prediction we've skipped on the current list.

Will anyone make the super optimistic 90-win prediction? Everyone has a breakout year and the Pirates make the playoffs!

And it might be a good sign that no one's expecting a win total in the 60s... yet...

 

[magnumo]

Welcome to the list, evolver115.

You bring participation to 17 posters:

88-74 ramburgh
87-75 Burgh Sports Rule
85-77 element1286
84-78 Darkstone42
83-79 sychmd
82-80 stillmatic32
81-81 powerchord86
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 itsneon
78-84 Illinest
77-85 SFNL
76-86 TheBurgh88
75-87 thedddd
74-88 evolver115
73-89 magnumo
72-90 WVUinVegas
71-91 thecrow124

As Darkstone has pointed out, the only W-L record which remains open, at least within the range which has been predicted to date, is 86-76. Other than that, it's gonna take someone who is very optimistic or very pessimistic to expand the range.

Our average prediction is 79-83, matching last season's record, the prediction by itsneon this year, and the last prediction of the Las Vegas oddsmakers of which I'm aware. Gee..... that's a lot of agreement.

 

[Darkstone42]

You bring participation to 17 posters:

88-74 ramburgh
87-75 Burgh Sports Rule
85-77 element1286
84-78 Darkstone42
83-79 sychmd
82-80 stillmatic32
81-81 powerchord86
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 itsneon
78-84 Illinest
77-85 SFNL
76-86 TheBurgh88
75-87 thedddd
74-88 evolver115
73-89 magnumo
72-90 WVUinVegas
71-91 thecrow124

As Darkstone has pointed out, the only W-L record which remains open, at least within the range which has been predicted to date, is 86-76. Other than that, it's gonna take someone who is very optimistic or very pessimistic to expand the range.

Our average prediction is 79-83, matching last season's record, the prediction by itsneon this year, and the last prediction of the Las Vegas oddsmakers of which I'm aware. Gee..... that's a lot of agreement.

Math doesn't lie...

 

[WVUinVegas]

Speaking of Vegas, here are some more Pirates betting odds:

To win the World Series: 50-1
To win the NL Pennant: 25-1

 

[thecrow124]

Speaking of Vegas, here are some more Pirates betting odds:

To win the World Series: 50-1
To win the NL Pennant: 25-1

If I were a betting man, I would say each of those are worth at least $10. Not that I think I could win, but because if I did win the return would be worththe gamble.

 

[element1286]

A Walk Through The Early Over/Unders | FanGraphs Baseball

Vegas has Pirates over/under set at 79.

 

[magnumo]

A Walk Through The Early Over/Unders | FanGraphs Baseball

Vegas has Pirates over/under set at 79.

While I'm not into gambling, I gotta admit that those guys do a pretty good job of handicapping. Apparently, the Vegas prediction hasn't changed since I mentioned it in my post #30 in this thread.

Perhaps I was too pessimistic with my prediction. Actually, I hope so. (But even if 79-83 wasn't taken, I would stay where I am.)

 

[smokeyburgess]

I'll go with 86-76, not necessarily because I think the Pirates will finish with that record but because it's the only viable prediction left!

In the words of Yul Brynner (Ramses) in The Ten Commandments, "So let it be written, so let it be done."

 

[magnumo]

Ahoy, smokey!!!

I'll go with 86-76, not necessarily because I think the Pirates will finish with that record but because it's the only viable prediction left!

In the words of Yul Brynner (Ramses) in The Ten Commandments, "So let it be written, so let it be done."

Good to see last year's winner!

Here's an updated list of 18 participants:

88-74 ramburgh
87-75 Burgh Sports Rule
86-76 smokeyburgess
85-77 element1286
84-78 Darkstone42
83-79 sychmd
82-80 stillmatic32
81-81 powerchord86
80-82 Burns80y
79-83 itsneon
78-84 Illinest
77-85 SFNL
76-86 TheBurgh88
75-87 thedddd
74-88 evolver115
73-89 magnumo
72-90 WVUinVegas
71-91 thecrow124

Note to all: As smokeyburgess pointed out in his post, there aren't any predictions remaining between 71 wins and 88 wins..... and it's still well over a month until the regular season begins. It seems highly probable that the squatters' rights rule will artificially limit participation for 2013. In addition, I remain hopeful that traffic on this board will continue to increase as more quality posters find it.

Hence, if I'm still alive NEXT year and up to running this contest again, I propose elimination of the squatters' rights rule for the 2014 season. I further propose to request that participants predict the Pirates' run differential (runs scored minus runs allowed) for the season, in addition to the traditional W-L prediction. In the event that more than one poster predicts the right W-L record, their run differential predictions will act as the tiebreaker. Please feel free to comment on those proposals.

 

[Darkstone42]

I like that plan, mags!

 

[sychmd]

mags, i agree.
i posteed quickly so as not to get shut out of options, but then run the risk of predicting to far in advance of season opener as many things could influence up to 10-20 win variance.

allowing more participation is certainly funner for more and allows for more scrutiny of the season as we are rooting for the tie breaker elements, not just won-loss.

i would recommend a couple tie-breakers, maybe 3 and the person who wins 2 out of the 3 or gets the best 'cumulative' score of their tie breaker predictions wins the tie breaker.

one could be a sabermetric, one could be an old fashioned metric, one could be an individual prediction, could be attendance, or it could be something obscure and outlandish, so as to have a variety to follow as it is a 6 month contest with no interaction after the initial predictions. it is just wait, watch, tabulate, and pray.

 

[element1286]

I like the Run Differential angle.