Off-season has started ...

[JohnU]

... for teams not in the playoffs.

Starting with accountability. Now it's up to Walt to make the right moves. We can't blame Dusty for "favoring veterans" now -- IF the damned front office would start promoting guys from the system instead of signing this year's version of Cairo, Cabrera, Valdez, Izturis, or Rentawreck.

We got Jason Donald for free in the Stubbs trade. Then we signed Hannahan, who sucked. Was Donald worse? I give up. Was Henry Rodriguez or Brodie Greene worse than Izturis? I give up.

We need to stop renting these Latin lovers and bring up our players.

We need to get somebody who can teach people how to hit instead of having wet dreams about getting Giancarlo Stanton for half the national treasury. If you think that works, may I forward you to Anaheim.

IF Choo wants to go ... adios! And let's see if maybe we have a decent hitter in the system who just might become the next Stanton. A real hitting philosophy can turn GIDP into gapper doubles.

Instead of pissing around deciding if Bronson has another 200 innings, what the hell did we sign Robert Stephenson to do? Polish the pines?

St. Louis brings its young pitchers to the majors and teaches them to pitch at the highest level. The Reds go out and sign Manny Parra or Armando Gallaraga. We sign the hardest thrower in baseball since Big Unit and the guy pitches 60 innings a year.

There is plenty wrong with Walt's philosophy if he lets that sort of business become part of the everyday game. There is nothing wrong with bringing up young players who can learn at the top level.

If it wasn't working, the best we could do to fix it was squander another season ... and the window doesn't stay open very long.

 

[redsfan03]

I think a big problem for the Reds is that the minor league system is middle of the road compared to the rest of the league. Walt has traded away many of the most MLB-ready prospects within the last few years. The difference between the Reds and the Cardinals is that the Cardinals' minor league system is absolutely STACKED. The reason they can bring up prospect #5 to fill in for an injured pitcher is that they have unparalleled depth in their minor leagues.

I do agree that bringing in the clowns you mentioned was a dumb move on Walt's part. With Dusty as the manager, it was like giving a caveman nuclear weapons. I wonder how much input Dusty had on those moves, because if Walt was acting independently of Dusty's influence then he royally screwed up. I'm hoping that Dusty had a hand in those signings, so I'm therefore hoping that these types of moves will cease with a new manager in place.

One thing that I've noticed about the Reds' prospects is their lack of plate discipline. They're all swingaholics with little knowledge of the strike zone and little ability to hit pitches outside of fastballs. Whether it's poor scouting, poor drafting, or poor development, it seems like these players aren't learning how to hit in a way that would be effective at the major league level. That's why I'm keeping my eye on Phil Ervin (2013 1st round pick), Jesse Winker (2012 1st round pick), and Ryan Wright (2011 5th round pick). They have all shown advanced plate approaches which will certainly help them rise through the ranks at an accelerated pace. But I think poor plate discipline is one of the reasons we're not seeing the Reds bring up many minor league prospects. They'd be eaten alive by major league pitching.

I think we may see Stephenson in the majors sometime during 2014.

 

[Redsfan1507]

The Cardinals unfortunately, have the best farm in MLB. Something to shoot for, but most teams don't have the ammo to hit the targets they aim for with farm help.

You can't bring up the next diamond in the rough, if there are only petrified turds in the farm, no matter how hard you polish them after they're up.

The predominant thought is, young players aren't (at least initially) whole at the MLB level, and can never be if they don't get regular PT. It's why most utility infielders are older guys- reduced at the MLB level to that role, not from the minors.

The sad truth is, most players recognized as limited to utility duty in the minors aren't deemed good enough for the 25th spot on a MLB roster anyway. There are a couple of exceptions- a fastball only hitter might become a MLB pinch hitter...the problem is, like a talented pinch runner, the MLB roster is too short for them unless they can also do something else, too.

Many times, an Izturis (or Ludwick) is signed because the higher cieling replacement needs another year of seasoning in the minors. The trick is to make sure the kid is progressing TOWARD THE ROLE PLANNED TO USE HIM IN AT THE MLB LEVEL, while not signing the fill in to a MLB contract that overlaps the kids debut by too much. There is a fine line there between having too much insurance, and not having enough. You never know when another unforseen position might collapse due to injury, for example. Position flexibility in bench players is important, but it's tough to swallow a .150 hitter for long.

I thought the Reds have done a relatively good job of finding quality role players and getting good results from them- Jerry Hairston, Jr., Jonny Gomes, Miguel Cairo and Ryan Ludwick, or Manny Parra...but have NOT done a good job at knowing when to cut them loose before they become a hindrence to progress or payroll or both.

IMO, a MLB journeyman doesn't break out at 32 years old, and become the everyday player every MLB team has overlooked. Your lucky to roll dice successfully for a year with these guys...don't be trying to roll consecutive 7's next year too.

 

[JohnU]

As well, I realize that part of the reserve-role process is to keep loyal players inside the system as long as they can be at least functional. But I think it's time the Reds make a move to fast-track their prospect pitchers and stop fiddling around, wondering if Bronson Arroyo has another 3-year contract in him. Bronson is no fool but he's also not going to get any better than he is.

If Corcino and Stevenson are ready, get them on the roster.

The Reds have plenty of infielders in the minors who can play MLB level defense ... and find their way to the restroom. Hitting .186 doesn't seem to be a problem anyway.

If a guy is going to hit .186, do we have to have him under a $1 million contract?

 

[JohnU]

One thing that I've noticed about the Reds' prospects is their lack of plate discipline. They're all swingaholics with little knowledge of the strike zone and little ability to hit pitches outside of fastballs. Whether it's poor scouting, poor drafting, or poor development, it seems like these players aren't learning how to hit in a way that would be effective at the major league level.

Hitting for the Reds was like going to some foreign country and being ordered around by the police officer in a language you couldn't interpret. This team had a composite .249 batting average this year. Whatever that translates to in other sabremetrics, I don't know ... but the eyeball test was proof enough. Reds hitters were being beaten on pitches in the dirt in the opposite strike zone -- on 1-2 counts. They took the bat back to the dugout, shoved it in the box and sat down. Next!

 

[eburg5000]

It will nice to see NO MORE 200 hitters in the top of the lineup, and maybe Philips batting 2nd instead of 4th. None of this left right left right shit.

Wow to think of it There was so many things that Dusty did to piss people off or at least me. We could devote several paragraphs copying them down.

 

[WvuDieHard]

Eburg, kicking Dustmop in the nuts and sending him down the road was the best news this franchise has had in years. It is a breath of fresh air and the beginning of new era of which can only produce a higher level of baseball and results. I have no doubt the Reds will be a power house in 2014.

 

[Redsfan1507]

Coaching hitting, pitching, or managing at it's best, takes a master technician, in order to have great results. It isn't just knowing one way to accomplish something, but they all have a defined philosophy that can be translated and adopted easily. Dusty and Jacoby were pull first guys. Some think its small park politics, but Dusty had the same ideas in San Francisco too.

It's a low OBP, high SLG theory. It also doesn't take into account hitters that hit .250-.260 following that recipe in the minors often translate into .240 hitters in MLB. I'll cite Stubbs, Cozart and Frazier as examples. Just like it took them years in the minors to "develop" their hitting styles, no coach in the world is turning them into batting champs in an offseason.

I come from the Charlie Lau/George Brett philosophy of hitting- getting on plane as soon as possible, staying on plane as soon as possible, staying inside the ball and using the middle of the field. It's gap theory where contact is more frequent, and homers are bonuses, instead of the pull first preference, where strikeouts and flyballs are frequent and homers are bonuses. If you have a team of Adam Dunn's, or Joey Votto's, you will have different problems if you can only apply one type of cure.

Bryan Price has carved out a nice nitch with his signature groundball methods, even with a fastball/strikeout natural pitching staff.

The Reds need a similar hitting guru, that can similarly advance the offense...and a manager that can find home without requiring GPS and a multi homer game. and the Reds will be a tougher opponent.

In already more optimistic about a couple of Reds who's strongest tools were obtusely limited by Dusty's mindset- Billy Hamilton and Zack Cozart. I also believe there is a much better chance Aroldis Chapman might be the next Randy Johnson, instead of the next Billy Wagner, now.

If we can get a guy to put a leash on Todd Fraziers compulsion for the 55 ft. curveball, maybe we got something.

 

[JohnU]

Frazier bit on the Dusty lie that he had to hit 26 HR ... which is 1 a week.
He'd get that anyway by accident ... just doesn't get the few dozen doubles that come with it.
He's a smart player. Great attitude, good glove, decent speed.

 

[JohnU]

I assume the team is going to move forward on Billy Hamilton in CF.
That may sound more exciting than it is. First off, if BH can't hit, he's not much good to the team. He's Larry Lintz. Derrick Robinson would therefore be an upgrade, if that's possible.

I also think the team needs to cook the stew or eat it with Mesoraco. Almost anybody who knows will tell you that the 2-3 platoon buffoon that Dusty served was a failure to both catchers. And somebody needs to teach Mesoraco how to hit.

Everybody could learn a little about hitting, even Votto. It's about approach. I think Jacoby just sat there and took his paycheck. Whatever help he presented was marginal. I've worked with "gurus" like that in my time. They just ignore the fact that some people are weak on fundamentals. They try to fix the immediate problem without recognizing the symptoms.

That, in the end, is why Bryan Price stands out. Leaders manage to get their people to come to them for the right kind of advice.

The Reds front office swallowed the "third in runs" lie that idiots continued to pawn off as proof that the Reds were some kind of scoring juggernaut. When mediocre pitchers go 8 innings and give up 3 hits, that's pretty telling of where this team was.

And it was never going to change with Jacoby and Baker.

 

[eburg5000]

I might have to go to spring training this year. It will be exciting to see all the changes that are coming.

 

[redsfan03]

Sounds like Bronson is as good as gone. That should free up some money for the Reds.

Agreed that Cozart and Frazier should definitely show improvement under a new manager/hitting coach.
Cozart was already improving at the end of this season by changing his plate approach - driving the ball to the gaps and opposite field as opposed to pulling everything.

I love Frazier's attitude. He was one of the few guys who showed heart while the rest of the team was sleepwalking to their demise. I'm confident that he can be a better hitter than this year showed. He'll never be a .300 hitter, but I think somewhere between .250 and .275 isn't outside the realm of possibility. Plus a lot of pop.

I also love Mesoraco's attitude, but I'm not sure the bat will ever come around for him. I do like that he makes consistent contact. Unfortunately, it's usually ground balls. The platoon definitely killed both him and Hanigan. I'm wondering if the Reds roll the dice with Mesoraco as the clear starter or if they continue the platoon this next season.

This team really needs a Scott Rolen. I thought Votto, Phillips, and Bruce would step up in Rolen's absence, but it's clear that they subscribe to the Dusty Baker school of no urgency. Votto and Bruce spent the last week of the season being automatic outs with glazed looks on their faces. Phillips spent the last week of the season chatting it up with opposing players and telling juicers to do more push-ups. Ludwick used his "veteran presence" to chastise fans after spending the majority of the year with an injury he could have avoided if he knew how to slide. I wouldn't entrust any of these clowns with being the leaders of this team from a player's standpoint.

 

[WvuDieHard]

The Reds need to tweek what they have a little: Here is what I would do in the off season:
1) Get Bryan Price to manage
2) Trade Brandon Phillips --too inconsistent for my liking and past his prime
3) Go after Stanton --a power bat to help the lineup
4) Get a decent 2nd baseman to fill the BP void
5) Sign Choo

This will get the Reds on the right track. A rotation of Cueto, Cingrani, Leake, Latos. and Bailey would still be a tough group. Just my take though.
.

 

[JohnU]

In case you care about Arroyo's future, I'd say ... see ya!

"I have no preference on where I want to pitch but I’ll certainly consider the team, their chances of winning, and all of that," Arroyo said. "I feel I can pitch effectively at 37, 38, and 39 years old. I’ve never missed a start. Never been injured. I’m not a max-effort guy out there, so there’s no big-time wear and tear on me. I loved Cincinnati but I don’t think they’re in position to give me what I want."

 

[Redsfan1507]

If they had cash for a 3 year deal, I'd give it to Choo. I don't think either is likely.

Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Chapman are making chump change compared to what they'll make in 3 years. Votto, Bruce, Phillips and Broxton are already signed and due raises. Money doesn't grow on trees.

 

[JohnU]

Bronson could stay in Cincy and become a local legend.
He will end up elsewhere like Harang.
We cheer for the uniform.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I agree with Arroyo- I think he's got a couple or three years left- I just think there is a good chance he's not going to be worth 8 figures in 2 years, especially if you can bring up a $450K lefthanded rookie that might win 12 games....or better yet, move a lefty flamethrower from the pen to give you 300 k's in 160 innings, that's not going to make more than you're already paying him.

The Reds need more offense out of LF, but if Choo escapes, you need to find 2 hitters from the OF. I think Billy Hamilton will get a chance, and if they allow him to bunt 75 times, he might hit .250, if he walks some, that might mean 100 R and 80 SB. Ludwick better kiss some serious fan ass AND hit like his salary or he needs to go too.

Frazier IMO, is a .250 best hitter, but if he can play good D, and hit 20 HR, he's a keeper as long as there is better offense than him in LF.

I hate to say it, but BP at 32, without Vitamin S, is probably headed in the direction of .250/15 HR before his contract is over, but might squeeze out a .275-.280 season or two, if he's not expected to hit cleanup.

The farm is the most likely long term answer for the Reds, but I expect an off season deal or two for a 1-2 year boost. If Broxton is healthy, I expect him to close, and Chapman to start, so there may be a pitcher dealt with a spare Reds OF and/or minor league 1b for a slightly past prime stick with a no bullshit attitude. I could see that. Anyone obvious fit that description ? A Greg Vaughn / Kevin Mitchell kind of guy. Or a Scott Rolen kind of guy that plays LF or 3b. Think the Panda might hit a ton in GABP ?

 

[JohnU]

I don't follow all the FA's but I think Chase Headley might be a decent bargain. He'd shove Frazier into LF or into a Heisey-type role.

I still buy low on David DeJesus.

 

[Redsfan1507]

I hate to say it, but in a perfect world, the GM and manager first need to be on the same page, THEN go shopping.

I have reservations assuming Price can be as good a manager as he was a PC, and then of course, we may get a lesser PC too. We need a hitting coach. Base coaches are a good idea too.

Gotta sign a manager soon.

I like David Bell. Maybe not the best at any single aspect, but well rounded in all areas. Riggleman, I don't know much about. The others- who knows? Jim Tracy ? Kind of a Hurdle type.

Urgency is again an issue, with hiring a manager and staff.

 

[Hit-n-Run]

I don't follow all the FA's but I think Chase Headley might be a decent bargain. He'd shove Frazier into LF or into a Heisey-type role.

I still buy low on David DeJesus.

I saw a story this week where Headley just had surgery for a meniscus tear in his knee. The story said he'd been having problems with the knee dating back to spring training. That would explain the big drop in production this year for the guy.

I think the Padres have him for one more year based on his MLB service time, he may be a "Super Two" where players have a 4th arbitration year.