Note to Buck Showalter: On Bullpen management

[hattersgonnahate]

I'm glad that Feldman got the job done today... but just in case, here's a note to Buck for the 2nd half of the season.

"Here's why you should consider warming up a reliever after the 5th inning no matter what:

Stats from the first five innings: 4.36 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
6th Inning: 6.73 ERA, 1.60 WHIP
7th inning or later: 3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

The implication is very clear: Unless the starter is doing very well and the team has a large lead, you should almost always burn the bullpen starting with the 6th inning. After all, unless you have 7 Strops in the bullpen (specifically, the August 2012 - July 2012 version of him), surely they can do better than 6.73 ERA / 1.60 WHIP as a group."


[Note: How much difference would that make? I would put the estimate at 3-4 wins over an entire season. Applying this strategy even for just the remainder of the 2013 season would result in an extra win or two.]

 

[obibyn]

I'm glad that Feldman got the job done today... but just in case, here's a note to Buck for the 2nd half of the season.

"Here's why you should consider warming up a reliever after the 5th inning no matter what:

Stats from the first five innings: 4.36 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
6th Inning: 6.73 ERA, 1.60 WHIP
7th inning or later: 3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

The implication is very clear: Unless the starter is doing very well and the team has a large lead, you should almost always burn the bullpen starting with the 6th inning. After all, unless you have 7 Strops in the bullpen (specifically, the August 2012 - July 2012 version of him), surely they can do better than 6.73 ERA / 1.60 WHIP as a group."


[Note: How much difference would that make? I would put the estimate at 3-4 wins over an entire season. Applying this strategy even for just the remainder of the 2013 season would result in an extra win or two.]

Are these stats for starters only or overall? Reason I ask is because a lot of the times it is a reliever pitching in the 6th which means they are also contributing to that era. Im not disagreeing with the notion as I pretty much agree with it but if that era isnt just the starters than its also the relievers.

However if it is just the starters and our relievers came in more in the 6th you would have to assume the relievers era would also rise as it would mean more work. At least I would imagine so.

But with all that said I agree 100%. It seems like more than not our starters crash in the 6th. Britton, Hammel, Tillman...the only one who seems to get through it unscathed is Gonzo.

 

[NJBuckO's]

With guys specifically like Britton or Hammel I'd say based off their 6th innings track record, be more ready to pull them ahead of time, whether their PC is 70 or 100. Guys like Tillman, Chen, MG and even Feldman are more reliable through that inning.

 

[stealth]

pulling

now Buck is starting to pull at moments notice, which is great because late game offense vs late game outs which is easier to obtain...of course the outs the outs are more valuable

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Are these stats for starters only or overall? Reason I ask is because a lot of the times it is a reliever pitching in the 6th which means they are also contributing to that era. Im not disagreeing with the notion as I pretty much agree with it but if that era isnt just the starters than its also the relievers.

However if it is just the starters and our relievers came in more in the 6th you would have to assume the relievers era would also rise as it would mean more work. At least I would imagine so.

But with all that said I agree 100%. It seems like more than not our starters crash in the 6th. Britton, Hammel, Tillman...the only one who seems to get through it unscathed is Gonzo.

Your concern is legitimate since those are indeed overall stats by inning-- I copied the tables from MLB.com into Excel and then summed the totals in IP, ER, and BB. Let's look at the numbers for each pitcher:

Britton: 27 ERA, 5.67 WHIP (3 IP, one bad game)
Chen: 4.05 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
Feldman: 19.3 ERA, 2.14 WHIP (2.1 IP, one bad game)
Garcia: 3.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP (5.1 IP)
Gausman: 0.00 ERA, 0.90 WHIP (3.1 IP)
Gonzalez: 6.14 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Hammel: 6.43 ERA, 1.43 WHIP
Tillman: 5.68 ERA, 1.66 WHIP

Hunter: 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
Matusz: 5.40 ERA, 0.90 WHIP (3.1 IP)
McFarland: 2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
Patton: 8.22 ERA, 1.83 WHIP (Ouch. We're talking about 7.2 IP, though-- the average isn't skewed by too much. Also, strangely enough, he's actually effective if used in the 7th inning or later.)

[Note: Relievers with < 3 IP are omitted]


Conclusion: Looks like Chen is the only one who should be pitching into the 6th inning on a regular basis.