Mel Kipers big board

[cdumler7]

I'm hoping for Sheldon Day at 78, but maybe be too late...PIT needs a rotation guy, 20-25 snap guy right now, not a starter.

Day is one of my favorite players in this draft. Probably the best high energy DL guy in the entire draft. I think he is probably maxed out on actual athleticism which is why he is a 2nd or 3rd round pick but he is one of those guys you will love as a fan because of the effort you see on the field.

 

[jarntt]

DHB though at least from the analyst out there wasn't even close to be a 1st round talent. I mean it is why so many were shocked when the Raiders made the pick. Al Davis though like was said was a guy obsessed with speed. I think it was something like 3 drafts in a row where he took the guy with the fastest 40 and a couple of them were not even thought to have been a top-5 round draft pick but he would take them all pretty high. So yes there are some teams in the past that have made decisions based on athleticism compared to production.

I would also point to some guys that have worked out. Poe for example for the Chiefs had terrible production against very mediocre to bad competition. You watch his film and think this guy is maybe a 3rd round pick. He goes crazy at the Combine and teams take that 2nd look. The Chiefs decided that his athleticism was worth taking a risk on as they thought they could coach him up into a talented football player. They were able to do that. Every year we see teams draft guys who do well at the combine much higher than where they were first projected. The draft is just as much about past production as that of potential. Some players have maxed out their athletic ability and others you can tell have just scratched the surface. Now just a matter of can the coaching staff's coach these guys up into actual football players?

It only takes one out of 32 teams to make someone a first round pick. 31 teams can hate them and Al Davis can love him and he's a first rounder...Talk of Poe was on the Cowboy board before the combine. So If we knew him, the scouts knew him...I don't disagree that guys move based on the combine, I'm just saying it isn't quite as much as many seem to think. Who knows, I've never been in an NFL war room

 

[Clayton]

Miller...32 might be a tad early. I think he has great upside potential, has size, but some wiggle and deceptive speed...won't last much into the 2nd....the scouts would have to hard sell me on another guy that might be on the board at 65.

I hate making this comparison because Im going to use one of my favorite college players of all time as a comp but Braxton Miller is basically the Brad Smith of this draft. A guy you just draft because he is too good to not play football somehow and if you have an OC with a brain then you'll get him the football somehow.

 

[cdumler7]

It only takes one out of 32 teams to make someone a first round pick. 31 teams can hate them and Al Davis can love him and he's a first rounder...Talk of Poe was on the Cowboy board before the combine. So If we knew him, the scouts knew him...I don't disagree that guys move based on the combine, I'm just saying it isn't quite as much as many seem to think. Who knows, I've never been in an NFL war room

I guess I just remember watching the games of DHB from college and just thinking "this kid can't play." I mean yes speed wise you are not going to find much better but his hands have always been terrible. His route running pretty much consisted of them saying "Go Deep." To me that pick was purely based on just his athleticism in the hopes that they could develop him into a good football player.

You are right though I don't think many players rise or fall much on what happens to the combine. One I do think though that did fall completely off the map during the combine or at least during this whole draft process was Vontaze Burfict. Some of his games he looked like a sure-fire top-15 pick. I mean the guy was a missile on the field. Seemed like as soon as the combine happened and word got out that the guy was one of the worst interviews of the entire combine he just completely fell off the map. So there are reasons that the combine matters. We have seen guys with medical issues fall like crazy. We have seen bad interviews cause guys to quickly fall. I would say though the small school guys the combine is where they make or break it for their career. IF they do well at the combine it at least makes the guys actually making the decisions have to take a closer look at the tape. They can only watch so many prospects and they have a lot of scouts pounding the table for different players. The combine though might confirm what some of those scouts have been telling them about these small school guys.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I hate making this comparison because Im going to use one of my favorite college players of all time as a comp but Braxton Miller is basically the Brad Smith of this draft. A guy you just draft because he is too good to not play football somehow and if you have an OC with a brain then you'll get him the football somehow.

That's exactly how I see this guy...seems to have the football IQ to expand the route tree...Vick and Tebow were outstanding athletes, but all they were ever going to make it in the NFL as was QB.

 

[cdumler7]

I hate making this comparison because Im going to use one of my favorite college players of all time as a comp but Braxton Miller is basically the Brad Smith of this draft. A guy you just draft because he is too good to not play football somehow and if you have an OC with a brain then you'll get him the football somehow.

Good comparison. It does seem like teams are trying hard to find these guys with just such great football intelligence and athleticism a place on the field. We see with Edelman how well that has worked out for the Patriots. Not sure those type of players though are worth a 1st round or low 2nd round pick because you know they need a year or two for development.

 

[cdumler7]

That's exactly how I see this guy...seems to have the football IQ to expand the route tree...Vick and Tebow were outstanding athletes, but all they were ever going to make it in the NFL as was QB.

I think if they had made the decision early on in their NFL career they were willing to make the switch they could have done decent. I mean Tebow has the body of an athletic TE. I don't think it would have been out of the realm of reality to think he could have went out and ran routes and caught the football. He is deadly in the open field with the ball in his hands so I think they could have found a way. He just refused to be anything but a QB though.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

It only takes one out of 32 teams to make someone a first round pick. 31 teams can hate them and Al Davis can love him and he's a first rounder...Talk of Poe was on the Cowboy board before the combine. So If we knew him, the scouts knew him...I don't disagree that guys move based on the combine, I'm just saying it isn't quite as much as many seem to think. Who knows, I've never been in an NFL war room

Not many people were looking at Poe as a top 10 or even top 15 pick...at Memphis his tape was not even top 20 worthy. His agility and strength combination surprised a lot of people at the combine.

Every year one or two guy go maybe a round earlier due to the combine but it's not a ton...what you said earlier is mostly true...the most valuable time is often the meeting time and medicals...every now and then a guy might draw some eyes that were not already on him.

 

[Clayton]

I think if they had made the decision early on in their NFL career they were willing to make the switch they could have done decent. I mean Tebow has the body of an athletic TE. I don't think it would have been out of the realm of reality to think he could have went out and ran routes and caught the football. He is deadly in the open field with the ball in his hands so I think they could have found a way. He just refused to be anything but a QB though.

The problem is that they are given bad advice. Look at Dak Prescott. Could've been a number of positions in the NFL. Taking a risk at being a QB. He might be good. He probably won't.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I think if they had made the decision early on in their NFL career they were willing to make the switch they could have done decent. I mean Tebow has the body of an athletic TE. I don't think it would have been out of the realm of reality to think he could have went out and ran routes and caught the football. He is deadly in the open field with the ball in his hands so I think they could have found a way. He just refused to be anything but a QB though.

IMO, not as pros.

A lot of people felt Vick could have been a running back, but no way...fast, not built to be a RB...far too frail. Tebow had the prototype size, but not the mentality or instincts to play TE.

I think they would've had to make the change in CFB for a season or two...much like Miller.

 

[cdumler7]

The problem is that they are given bad advice. Look at Dak Prescott. Could've been a number of positions in the NFL. Taking a risk at being a QB. He might be good. He probably won't.

Yeah I think Tebow had a lot of people telling him "you were one of the best college QB's of all time so of course you can play QB in the NFL." There are times that sometimes having so many positive voices around you can be counter in it doesn't always help you see things in reality. Like I said I wish he would have given TE a shot. I think he could have done a very good job at it and had a 10-12 year NFL career.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

The problem is that they are given bad advice. Look at Dak Prescott. Could've been a number of positions in the NFL. Taking a risk at being a QB. He might be good. He probably won't.

Most likely he won't...but, back up QB is not a bad gig in the NFL...if you just look good in your uni and don't screw up royally the few times you're called on...pretty much a lock to get more than 1 NFL contract.

 

[cdumler7]

IMO, not as pros.

A lot of people felt Vick could have been a running back, but no way...fast, not built to be a RB...far too frail. Tebow had the prototype size, but not the mentality or instincts to play TE.

I think they would've had to make the change in CFB for a season or two...much like Miller.

I think Tebow with a year working out as a TE would have been fine. I mean look at Edelman he took just a bit of time to make the switch but has done well after a year or two of learning the position. Yes Miller has a leg up because he made the switch early and I am happy that he was able to be honest with himself about knowing where teams would want him. Gives him a leg up. Still I think it is possible to take a guy and have them switch. Not many can do it but there are some that their athleticism allows for it.

 

[Clayton]

Yeah I think Tebow had a lot of people telling him "you were one of the best college QB's of all time so of course you can play QB in the NFL." There are times that sometimes having so many positive voices around you can be counter in it doesn't always help you see things in reality. Like I said I wish he would have given TE a shot. I think he could have done a very good job at it and had a 10-12 year NFL career.

To be fair to Prescott, Tebow was surrounded by weapons at Florida and Tebow peaked his freshman year while Prescott got better every year.

I could see Prescott going in rd2 just because QB is in such high demand. He is definitely a project, though.

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I think Tebow with a year working out as a TE would have been fine. I mean look at Edelman he took just a bit of time to make the switch but has done well after a year or two of learning the position. Yes Miller has a leg up because he made the switch early and I am happy that he was able to be honest with himself about knowing where teams would want him. Gives him a leg up. Still I think it is possible to take a guy and have them switch. Not many can do it but there are some that their athleticism allows for it.

Physically I have no question...Tebow could have been an NFL TE.

It's such a huge mental adjustment that you really have to want to make that kind of change....for Miller, I think he saw that his competition was better and he like the environment at OSU and was open to change. Tebow, being such a celebrated QB at the CFB level I just don't see the mentality being open enough to make a change that drastic at the next level.

 

[cdumler7]

To be fair to Prescott, Tebow was surrounded by weapons at Florida and Tebow peaked his freshman year while Prescott got better every year.

I could see Prescott going in rd2 just because QB is in such high demand. He is definitely a project, though.

I actually do like Dak Prescott. You are right he is a project QB but I don't think he was dealt the best hand at Mississippi State. He had a terrible OL that got him hit a lot and a system that didn't always encourage him to be a QB. From what I understand he impressed at the Senior Bowl though with his ability to learn throughout the week and his willingness to throw from the pocket with decent accuracy. I could see a team like Buffalo wanting him to back up Tyrod Taylor because they have similar styles. The Broncos have been linked to him as Kubiak's system loves having an athletic QB that can run to the outside and scare teams with their legs as well as their arm. I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on the guy 2nd round on.

 

[cowboycolors]

Miller is making a smart decision for himself. He can play football and was a pretty good college QB but not NFL caliber. Drew Pearson was a QB at Tulsa way back when but switched his junior year I think so he had a chance and he made a pretty good WR in the NFL. Tebow would have made a damn good TE but he was to proud to change just like Vince Young would would have been a really WR IMHO.

Some guys are savvy enough to read the tea leaves or whatever you want to call it and make a move others can be like a box of rocks. Good for Braxton I wish him well unless he goes to the Eagles Redskins or Giants

 

[ATL96Steeler]

I actually do like Dak Prescott. You are right he is a project QB but I don't think he was dealt the best hand at Mississippi State. He had a terrible OL that got him hit a lot and a system that didn't always encourage him to be a QB. From what I understand he impressed at the Senior Bowl though with his ability to learn throughout the week and his willingness to throw from the pocket with decent accuracy. I could see a team like Buffalo wanting him to back up Tyrod Taylor because they have similar styles. The Broncos have been linked to him as Kubiak's system loves having an athletic QB that can run to the outside and scare teams with their legs as well as their arm. I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on the guy 2nd round on.

I like Prescott as well and would spend a 3rd, but it might take a 2nd in this draft....I think DEN would have to move up in the 2nd...I like the change of pace concept with QB2...he does have an NFL arm and can run pro style to blend in with his legs.

 

[jarntt]

I guess I just remember watching the games of DHB from college and just thinking "this kid can't play." I mean yes speed wise you are not going to find much better but his hands have always been terrible. His route running pretty much consisted of them saying "Go Deep." To me that pick was purely based on just his athleticism in the hopes that they could develop him into a good football player.

You are right though I don't think many players rise or fall much on what happens to the combine. One I do think though that did fall completely off the map during the combine or at least during this whole draft process was Vontaze Burfict. Some of his games he looked like a sure-fire top-15 pick. I mean the guy was a missile on the field. Seemed like as soon as the combine happened and word got out that the guy was one of the worst interviews of the entire combine he just completely fell off the map. So there are reasons that the combine matters. We have seen guys with medical issues fall like crazy. We have seen bad interviews cause guys to quickly fall. I would say though the small school guys the combine is where they make or break it for their career. IF they do well at the combine it at least makes the guys actually making the decisions have to take a closer look at the tape. They can only watch so many prospects and they have a lot of scouts pounding the table for different players. The combine though might confirm what some of those scouts have been telling them about these small school guys.

But the raw skills and speed don't need the combine to be seen. If you have freak athletic ability like DHB you may find a team that thinks they can mold you.

I totally agree on the interviews. From the beginning I said the interviews and the medical exams are big.

 

[Blitzville]

How is Carson Wentz is above Dak Prescot as a NFL prospect? Presscot outperformed him in the Senior Bowl, played against far superior talent, First team All-Sec, and he's an All-American.