Louisville opened up -5.5

[CoolStoryBro]

UL opens up originally with a -5.5 line, now it sits comfortably at -5.

Does anyone else think that's a huge way to get a bunch of UK guys to bet the house on it?

I'm surprised, I feel like UL has underperformed and UK and got it together in the tourney. This will be a great game though.

Who likes who and why??

 

[TDs3nOut]

I thought that Louisville was playing about as well as any team I'd seen heading into the tournament, but they haven't played to well since. I think KY played awesome against Wichita State and they definitely have a shot if they play like that again. Should be a great game. I think I'm inclined to go with Louisville, though, mainly due to their experience and how good a coach Pitino is.

 

[CoolStoryBro]

I thought that Louisville was playing about as well as any team I'd seen heading into the tournament, but they haven't played to well since. I think KY played awesome against Wichita State and they definitely have a shot if they play like that again. Should be a great game. I think I'm inclined to go with Louisville, though, mainly due to their experience and how good a coach Pitino is.

I forgot the stat for Pitino he's like 12-0 in S16 (someone correct me).

UK played the best game they have all season, my issue is p, will they be consistent enough do it for 4 more games , let alone 1 more.

I think UK is 5-1 with Cal verse Pitino, for this to ever become a rivalry Pitino needs to win this one!

I'm excited for this game, should be a high level of play and fun to watch. I got to admit, I really wanted to see Witchita okay UL.

 

[Runeman]

Kentucky is not the same team some of you folks railed on a month ago. Kentucky will beat Louisville. Too much rebounding and Kentucky now knows they can beat anybody. Andrew Harrison now knows to get the ball to Randle or James Young and life is good. Harrison turned the ball over 6 times against WS. Kentucky will fix that by moving a big, probably Cully-Stein, to the center of the court to break that press.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Kentucky is not the same team some of you folks railed on a month ago. Kentucky will beat Louisville. Too much rebounding and Kentucky now knows they can beat anybody. Andrew Harrison now knows to get the ball to Randle or James Young and life is good. Harrison turned the ball over 6 times against WS. Kentucky will fix that by moving a big, probably Cully-Stein, to the center of the court to break that press.

I am less certain of the outcome than you are. I do think that KY not turning the ball over is likely to be a key, though. Louisville is tough when they are taking the ball away and scoring off of turnovers. Not sure that WSU has a big that is comparable to Montrezl Harrell.

 

[Runeman]

I am less certain of the outcome than you are. I do think that KY not turning the ball over is likely to be a key, though. Louisville is tough when they are taking the ball away and scoring off of turnovers. Not sure that WSU has a big that is comparable to Montrezl Harrell.

LOL; you are correct and I'm not 100% certain; just think Ky wins that game....and yes Kentucky not turning over the ball is the key. No way Louisville will successfully compete for rebounds as they have no answer for Randle. In addition, Culley-Stein and Dakari Johnson are huge physical men and Poythres is also quite large and physical as well. Harrel and Mataiang are too small to hang with those guys. Can't keep them off the boards. Also Russ Smith will probably have to guard James Young which will restrict the Louisville fast break opportunities. I think for Louisville to win; Smith, Hancock, Jones and maybe Blackshear will have to shoot lights out from beyond the arc as well as getting a bunch of turnovers as I suspect Louisville will press the entire game to that end.

 

[UKnation87]

UK wins...

Just like in Dec, it is simply a match-up issue for the Ville. Outide of Russ Smith, UK owns the match-up at every position.

They won without Randle playing the second half so I just feel that UK is provides too much length and physical play for Louisville to overcome it.

Obviously I could totally off here but I have to believe the way UK has played since the SEC tourney, they're just the better team right now. Time will tell.

GO CATS!

 

[mrwallace2ku]

Ky and it's 5* horses here...@ least with the point spread at +5...boys are "peaking" at the right time.

 

[TDs3nOut]

Some compelling arguments here for why KY will win. They did play an outstanding game against Wichita State and they have a good shot if they play like that again. I do think, however, that Louisville, despite not having the height inside that KY has, is probably quite a bit better than Wichita State and that Pitino will have a good plan for his team.

 

[dcZONAfan]

I also think Kentucky wins. And they don't have to play like they did on Sunday to beat Louisville. That type of game by UK will likely result in a 10-15 point win. UK, as others have said, is not a good matchup for Louisville. They weren't a very good team when they took down the Cardinals the first time, so why should we think that, after clearly growing more than any other team in the country, they wouldn't be able to beat them again? If you base it off of LAST weekend only, WSU was, quite simply, a much better team than Louisville. And if you base it off of the entire year, I think the same argument can be made.

Louisville didn't look good in either game last weekend, and the SLU team they played was not only overrated all year, but their best player was clearly limping because of his groin strain. SLU shouldn't have even advanced past NC State if not for an epic collapse (self-inflicted by NC St missing 12 FTs, not like the Illinois comeback vs. Arizona in '05)

Of course, the great equalizer when playing Louisville is the turnovers. All of this could be irrelevant if the Harrisons give the ball up repeatedly, I just don't expect them to do that after having faced this team once before.

 

[Shanemansj13]

I forgot the stat for Pitino he's like 12-0 in S16 (someone correct me).

UK played the best game they have all season, my issue is p, will they be consistent enough do it for 4 more games , let alone 1 more.

I think UK is 5-1 with Cal verse Pitino, for this to ever become a rivalry Pitino needs to win this one!

I'm excited for this game, should be a high level of play and fun to watch. I got to admit, I really wanted to see Witchita okay UL.

They played the best game possible and barely beat WSU. Louisvile is a much better defensive team then Wichita, but the question is will UL pick up their offense?? They are also a better rebounding team then WSU, which hurt them bad against UK.

 

[dcZONAfan]

They played the best game possible and barely beat WSU. Louisvile is a much better defensive team then Wichita, but the question is will UL pick up their offense?? They are also a better rebounding team then WSU, which hurt them bad against UK.

That WSU team is better than ANY team Louisville has faced all year. You are right Kentucky played their best game, which was about twice as good as the Kentucky team that beat Louisville earlier in the year. That's a scary thought for Pitino

 

[jonvi]

I don't get this point spread at all. UK won their earlier matchup and that was when UK sucked.

During the SEC championship, it looked to me that UK turned the corner. It just seems odd that UofL would be a 5 point fav.

 

[Runeman]

The problem I see with Kentucky is they now know they can beat any team and just might do that. A team that knows how to block out properly, set screens for the 3 point shooters, and can run is the team that can beat those guys. It takes a very well balanced team to offset their inside game.
Also, if Andrew Harrison ever learns how to play point guard they win it all. Have to remember, he is just a freshman trying to learn a very demanding position. You don't see many point guards that are good as freshman and I think he will eventually be great. Our guy, Wilbekin is excellent, but he is a senior with a lot of games played.

 

[Runeman]

I don't get this point spread at all. UK won their earlier matchup and that was when UK sucked.

During the SEC championship, it looked to me that UK turned the corner. It just seems odd that UofL would be a 5 point fav.

Kentucky was excellent in the SEC tournament; however, I thought Florida did not play well; especially on offense. The Kentucky team that beat WS was a better team than the one that played Florida.


Louisville sucked then as well, so that 1st game is not an indicator of things to come. A Pitino coached team will have a game plan that can win; just not sure they have the horse power to pull it off.

 

[Shanemansj13]

That WSU team is better than ANY team Louisville has faced all year. You are right Kentucky played their best game, which was about twice as good as the Kentucky team that beat Louisville earlier in the year. That's a scary thought for Pitino

Yah but you could also say UL wasn't the same team, it was early in the year. So I guess you could make a case for both teams.

In that 1st matchup:

UL shot 39%
6/26 from 3's
Got outrebounded 44-36
13 turnovers

Also UL's 2 best players, Russ Smith shot 7/20 and Hancock shot 3/11.

But it will be a hell of a game, I would take UK +5.5 right now

 

[Shanemansj13]

If I had to give a prediction of how it would go:

UK wins if it is a higher scoring game, especially the way UL has been playing.

UL wins if it's a low scoring game, but also that most likely says UK is right there with them.


This game is very hard to predict, bc UL hasn't been playing good and UK just played their best game.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Louisville also played Chane Behanan in the first matchup. He has since transferred to Co St.

I agree that both teams have improved since that first game, but UofL's personnel took a hit since then. I think UK has played better since then, but UofL has mainly looked better since then. They looked really, really impressive against the sub .500 fodder they played. Hard not to look impressive when you're beating teams by 30. But they were still sub .500 teams. I thought UofL looked pretty pedestrian against their better competition. Not bad mind you, but certainly not one of the teams I'd pick to cut down the nets. Yes, I'm aware that they're leading in KenPoms stats. Yes, I'm also aware that they are a statistical anomaly. You typically don't have a team who plays that many crap teams, who's capable (and willing) to win by 30.

Having said all that I like UK to cover but UofL to win. I know everything I've said to this point says "uk" but if you've paid much attention to this point the one thing we can all agree on is that I'm an idiot. So I'm picking against myself.

That, and UK is playing better team ball, they still aren't playing smart ball.

Look at the last minute of the first half in the last two games:

(keeping in mind, UK's half court offense consists of barely beating the 10 second count at half court, followed by lazy passes around the perimeter between the harrisons and young. (with the occasional 7" guy coming out to the top of the key, catching a pass, realizing he's a 7" guy at the top of the key, then frantically looking for a guard to pass back to) then with about 7 ticks left on the clock, whoever has the ball goes charging into the lane hoping to draw a foul. Every now and then, someone on defense will get lazy, or try and jump the passing lanes and miss, and UK will get an open look at a 3, but by in large that is their half court offense. )

So knowing that let's look at the end of the 1st half in the K-State game...

There's about 36.5 seconds left on the game clock with a fresh shot clock. UK has the ball. This is a pretty clear spot to hold the ball, try and get a good look late in the shot clock, and hopefully defend well enough that they don't get the ball across half court in the 2 seconds or so they have left. So what does Kentucky do? Immediately one of the harrisons goes crashing into the lane and throws up a terrible shot. K-State gets the ball back. (they don't score, but they had plenty of time to)

Now let's look at the last minute of the WSU 1st half:

there's a 1:12 left on the game clock, fresh shot clock, UK has the ball. This to me looks like an obvious spot to try and get a quick shot off, knowing that barring some nig offensive rebounds from WSU, you should get the ball back again with enough time to score. What does UK do? Sit on the ball until the shotclock is winding down. They didn't get another good look before the end of the half.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Why did Behanan transfer??? I was wondering where he went. He was a beast.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Weed, man.