Klaw ranks farm systems

[gunnarthor]

Chicago Cubs No. 1 in farm system rankings for 2015 - MLB - ESPN

Most of it is behind the paywall but the video is free. Cubs and Twins are #1 and 2. Detroit is last.

 

[calsnowskier]

Chicago Cubs No. 1 in farm system rankings for 2015 - MLB - ESPN

Most of it is behind the paywall but the video is free. Cubs and Twins are #1 and 2. Detroit is last.

Do you mind listing the rankings, at least?

 

[Howie115]

Most of it is behind the paywall but the video is free. Cubs and Twins are #1 and 2. Detroit is last.

Not surprising for Detroit. Dombrowski has traded away most of the prospects for established veterans, from 2008 onward.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

The Padres traded away a bunch of prospects & I don't have a problem with it one bit. I'd rather have a good MLB team. The Cubs are the Cubs. They have to prove they can win to everybody before anyone should believe they have a chance to be good.

 

[moxie]

Do you mind listing the rankings, at least?

1. Chicago Cubs
Take a moment to recover from your surprise ... The past 12 months have seemed more like a coronation for the Cubs than one for the teams that actually played in the World Series. The hype around their system is justified by the talent in it, with the strongest collection of top-shelf hitting prospects I can remember since I started working in baseball. They have someone coming at just about every position other than catcher and first base, and most of them fare well both in traditional evaluation and in analysis of their performance to date.

The Cubs' draft strategy under the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer regime has been to grab a polished hitter in the first round and load up on arms later. That, along with the trade of Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel that netted two more top hitting prospects, has produced a system that's full of hitting prospects but still a bit light on the pitching side. The first wave of bats reached the majors in the middle of 2014, with more coming this year, but there won't be enough at-bats for Javier Baez and Jorge Soler and Arismendy Alcantara and Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber and Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo ... and that's not even everyone who might end up pushing for playing time. The Cubs are in prime position to flip a young hitter for a pitcher or even to swing a bigger deal, especially if they want to try to set themselves up to win the NL Central in 2016. There are young starting pitching prospects here to like, led by 20-year-old Duane Underwood, but they're all a few years away.

2. Minnesota Twins

The Twins return almost their entire top 10 intact but have added first-rounder Nick Gordon and a slew of college relievers who look like they'll move quickly to the high minors, and they continue to find value on the international front.

The flip side of this is the Twins got virtually no help from their farm system in 2014, but I expect that to change quickly this year, with Alex Meyer on the verge of the big leagues and Miguel Sano not far behind.

3. Houston Astros

It is still strong, but it's now a bit weaker after a slew of promotions last year, their inability to come to an agreement with the first overall pick in the draft, Brady Aiken, and the trade of three prospects, two of them in my 2015 top 100, for Evan Gattis. The Astros' strength is still in bats, followed by a collection of hard throwers who might start but, if not, project as impact relievers.

4. New York Mets

They're deep in arms and bats, especially guys who might play in the middle of the diamond or pitch in the top three spots of a major league rotation. They've kept all their prospects while patiently building, but this is probably the year to swap some of their starting pitching prospect depth for a bat.

5. Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox lost four top-10 prospects to promotions last year, yet they remain a top-5 system, thanks to big moves forward by Blake Swihart, Manuel Margot and Rafael Devers, the latter of whom will play all of 2015 at age 18, and the midseason trade that netted them lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, now their No. 2-ranked pitching prospect.

6. Atlanta Braves

They were a bottom-5 system when the offseason started, but six trades later, they've built up a stash of prospects that makes up for five years of execrable drafts and very little production from their Latin American efforts. Ten of their top 12 prospects have appeared on at least one of my past three top-100 rankings, including five this year.

7. Pittsburgh Pirates

It's hard to believe how many games the Pirates have won in the majors over the past two years without putting a significant dent in their top-level minor league talent. They promoted only Gerrit Cole and Gregory Polanco and dealt just one major prospect in Dilson Herrera.

They still have several players likely to help the major league club in 2015, and just about every affiliate should have at least one potential star on its Opening Day roster.

8. Colorado Rockies

I called the Rockies "sneaky good" last year and ranked them No. 8 at that time, and I actually like the system a little more this year, despite injury setbacks that affected four of their top six guys.

Strong pro debuts from their top few picks from 2014 also boosted their stock.

9. Washington Nationals

The Nats' system got a big boost last year, when they kept their first-round draft pick and landed a good college arm, Erick Fedde, who fell because he had blown out his elbow. Then they added two top-100 prospects in exchange for Steven Souza this offseason. They're also so set at the major league level that they haven't had to deal much from their minor league affiliates; just two of their top 10 from last year, Souza and Nate Karns, are no longer with the Nats, and both are now property of Tampa Bay, through separate deals.

10. Los Angeles Dodgers

Their front three prospects are the strongest in the game, and their top 10 is still strong, but it thins out very quickly beyond their 10th or 11th guy. In terms of just guys with the potential to be stars, they rival the Cubs and Twins.

 

[moxie]

11. Texas Rangers

A lost year at the major league level led to a productive trade with Detroit that netted the Rangers a top-100 prospect in Jake Thompson, and they had one of the steals of the 2014 draft when they got right-hander Luis Ortiz with a supplemental pick. There has been some attrition from the large group of high-upside position players they brought into the system in 2011-12, but not as much as you might expect, with that set likely to produce two or three stars in a couple seasons.

12. Chicago White Sox

They've added four players within the top-120 range of prospects in the past 24 months, via the draft and one trade, and they didn't give up any of those premium guys to add Jeff Samardzija this offseason. Although the system still isn't deep in average prospects, it is in the best shape it has been since I started ranking organizations seven years ago.

13. St. Louis Cardinals

You'd have to go down to rookie ball to find a potential star in the system -- they lost one, Oscar Taveras, to tragedy last autumn -- yet the Cardinals can run 15 or more names who project to have significant, major league roles as average regulars or quality extra guys.

14. Arizona Diamondbacks

I might take their top four starting pitching prospects over anyone else's in baseball. The system is rather light on bats, though, and trading two young hitting prospects for a back-end starter this winter didn't help that.

15. Kansas City Royals

Years of strong drafts paid off by bringing the Royals one win from a world championship, and there's actually quite a bit of talent still in the system, as the Royals didn't have to trade much of what they already had. This organization has lost some depth, but the top 10 is still solid, especially in starting pitching.

16. Cleveland Indians

The system got a huge boost from perhaps my favorite 2014 draft class, which featured a good mix of probability and upside and boosted a farm that had seen a number of top-10 prospects struggle the past season.

17. Cincinnati Reds

This could easily be a top-10 system in a year, given how many upside players are in the organization, from relievers working as starters to toolshed, Latin American position players. There is very little 2015 impact, however, and nearly all of their top 10 prospects have some significant risk associated with them.

18. San Diego Padres

New GM AJ Preller has traded away much of the depth in this system but has managed to retain the Padres' top two prospects, Hunter Renfroe and Austin Hedges, as well as the pitcher they consider their top arm, Matt Wisler. It's been a busy offseason in San Diego.

19. Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays have been very aggressive in using their prospects to upgrade the major league roster, and they promoted most of the remainder, so what's left in the system is largely high-ceiling, Latin American prospects who are several years away and the products of their 2014 draft, from which both first-rounders have had surgery.

20. New York Yankees

The Yankees' system still has more talent than production, as several key prospects continued to have trouble staying on the field, but a very strong 2013 draft class and a blowout year on the international front have the system trending up again.

 

[moxie]

21. Seattle Mariners

The Mariners' system was long light on bats and full of arms, but the promotions of Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, as well as a pair of hitter-heavy drafts, have flipped that around. (Paxton is obviously a lock to be in the 2015 rotation, and Walker should push to land there as well.)

22. Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles still have a pair of future aces atop the system, but they traded one of their top starting pitching prospects for Andrew Miller and didn't pick until the third round last year, which means they missed out on a chance to add more high-end talent to the system.

23. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays' draft record has been among the most disappointing in baseball because their big league club cannot succeed without a steady pipeline of inexpensive players coming out from their minor leagues. They haven't had a pick in the first 10 rounds turn into anything above an up-and-down guy since the 2007 draft, which included David Price and Matt Moore. The various trades of veterans and Wil Myers helped add some talent back to the system, but the bottom line for the new regime in St. Petersburg is they have to get more big leaguers from their top draft picks.

24. Miami Marlins

Their system rarely ranks high because they promote players to big league roles so quickly, but there's a solid group of very young arms in the system that will be on the list for a while, as well as a teenage position player or two with some real upside. There's very little in near-term talent here, however.

25. Philadelphia Phillies

They might have been 28th or 29th had they not traded Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers for a pair of solid pitching prospects, but the system still lacks depth up top, and aside from J.P. Crawford, their best teenage position players are still a long way off. More trades could obviously help push this system up.

26. Oakland Athletics

They've shipped out a lot of talent to try to advance in the playoffs the past two years, including sending two first-round picks to the Cubs in the first Jeff Samardzija trade. The system is especially light on pitchers who project as more than fifth starters, with Dillon Overton, who is just coming back from Tommy John surgery, their best bet to end up a mid-rotation guy.

27. Los Angeles Angels

They were a lock to be 30th before they acquired Andrew Heaney in the Howie Kendrick trade and signed Cuban amateur Roberto Baldoquin, but after those two and first-rounder Sean Newcomb, the system drops off very quickly.

28. Milwaukee Brewers

Years of bad drafts and struggles developing pitching have caught up with the Brewers, who've had just a few draft picks in the first five rounds -- Brett Lawrie, Yovani Gallardo, and Jonathan Lucroy -- pan out since they took Ryan Braun in 2005. Jimmy Nelson might join that group, but it's hard to sustain a low-payroll club without a productive farm system.

29. San Francisco Giants

The bottom two clubs on this list are here in large part because they use or trade what they get. The Giants traded two prospects for Jake Peavy, while five of their eight regular hitters and three of their five starters were homegrown. Drafting low in the first round hasn't helped, and recently they've taken a number of high school arms who have promise but have moved slowly through the system.

30. Detroit Tigers

They've traded five of their top 10 prospects from last year's list (Nos. 3, 4, 5, 8 and 10) and made their top guy from that list, Nick Castellanos, their everyday third baseman. The No. 9 prospect in the system, Endrys Briceno, blew out his elbow, and the No. 2 prospect, Daniel Fields, fought a wrist injury all year. I loved their first-rounder from last year, but I had to build their top 10 almost completely from scratch because of how actively Dave Dombrowski uses what he has in the system.

 

[DaBoltsNIsles]

I don't know why anyone should be surprised? The Cubs system has been touted for a few years now. We'll find out soon enough whether or not it was just hot air.

 

[Win TWINS!!!]

Chicago Cubs No. 1 in farm system rankings for 2015 - MLB - ESPN

Most of it is behind the paywall but the video is free. Cubs and Twins are #1 and 2. Detroit is last.

Too bad the Twins haven't known what to do with theirs in recent years.

 

[calsnowskier]

I am not sure I agree with the Giants being #29 (the org is actually quite deep, even if not top-heavy), but I am OK with them being near the bottom. As stated in the write-up, they have been drafting low and making a lot of trades, so they are getting a lot of equity from the farm, either way.

On the surface, not a horrible list.

 

[Arizona_Sting]

Surprised Arizona isn't higher, especially with the two big Cuban signings and by adding tons of depth in the minors this year to an already decent farm system.

Plus we got the #1 pick in the Draft upcoming.... bright years ahead.

 

[Fountain City Blues]

Love a lot of the top 10 guys in the Royals system ( Mondesi oozes tools)... After that? Meh. 15 is pretty fair, IMO.

 

[gunnarthor]

Too bad the Twins haven't known what to do with theirs in recent years.

They'll be fine. Their current losing cycle isn't anything unusual and they've already got a few complementary pieces in place to build around the Buxton/Sano nucleus. Look at the bright side, in the last few years, they've graduated 4 top 100 prospects and still have a highly ranked farm system.

 

[Montalban]

Chicago Cubs No. 1 in farm system rankings for 2015 - MLB - ESPN

Most of it is behind the paywall but the video is free. Cubs and Twins are #1 and 2. Detroit is last.

I think the Cubs are a team on the rise. It will be very strange to see them with a winning team.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Buxton, Sano, Vargas, Arcia are going to be giving pitchers neck problems for years.


As for the pitching.....duck and pray.

 

[Nasty_Magician]

I expect quite a few promotions for the Mets as well as guys getting dealt so the 2016 farm system will likely drop a few. Really anxious to finally see some of these guys getting to the bigs.

 

[Clayton]

I think the Cubs are a team on the rise. It will be very strange to see them with a winning team.

It hasn't been that long. 'Cardinals or Cubs?' was the biggest thread on ESPN back in the day.

I'm actually surprised to see the Cardinals so high. They've promoted a lot of their guys and lost 2 of their prospects recently due to trade and tragedy.

 

[tducey]

Thanks for posting this, always great to read about the future of the MLB and its teams.